Injuries, Inconsistency and Asterisks: The Road from the DSL for Brewers Pitching Prospects
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There are plenty of stories from the Brewers' 2023 minor league season of players stepping up and loudly announcing themselves as prospects to watch.
This is not one of those stories.
This is a story of entire seasons lost to injury, of struggles at a new level. It is a story where even most of the successes come with an asterisk. It is also one, though, that comes with a reminder that just because results might not be particularly hopeful doesn't necessarily mean they are hopeless.
This is the story of the 14 pitchers who mostly comprised the shifting 2022 Brewers DSL starting rotations.
The One Who Got Released
By most normal standards, Jeral Vizcaino's 2022 season for the Brewers DSL squad was a rousing success. He had a 1.46 ERA and a WHIP just above 1 while striking out just over a hitter an inning.
When you are in your age 20 season in the DSL, however, you have to convince the team that you deserve a spot stateside. For whatever reason (with the consolidation from two to one ACL squad likely at least partially to blame), the Brewers released Vizcaino.
He hooked on with the Cubs' DSL squad, and had a similarly good 2023. Now he is hoping his age 22 season is the one in which he finally gets a complex league spot.
The Lost Seasons
The Returning Ace, The Opening Day Starter And The Big Lefty
Kevin Briceno's strong work out of the bullpen for the 2021 DSL squad seemed to have him in line for a similar role in Arizona in 2022. The Brewers had other ideas, however, and installed the 6-1 righty as one of their opening day starters in the DSL.
He rewarded them with six starts with a sub-1.50 ERA and better than 6:1 strikeout to walk rate before getting moved to Arizona. His metrics slipped stateside, but he was good enough at keeping runs off the board where he seemed to have an outside shot at pitching in Carolina to open the 2023 season.
He didn't, and he didn't in Arizona, either. indeed, Briceno missed the whole season because of injury.
The same fate also befell the Brewers' other opening day DSL starter in 2022, Daurys Mora.
By most measures other than his 5.50 ERA, Mora had a pretty average 2022. He didn't strike out a ton but didn't walk a ton either. His xFIP was seventh out of the 14 pitchers who started at least 5 DSL games for the Brewers.
He didn't get a chance to build on that in 2023, however, missing the entire season.
Wande Torres was intriguing in 2022 mainly for three reasons:
1. At 6-3 he was tied for the tallest among the DSL starters.
2. He pitches left-handed
3. He struck out more than 10 batters per 9 in that, his age 17 season.
When his name first appeared on the ACL roster as its season was about to begin in 2023, I thought maybe the Brewers had seen signs that Torres, who had the second highest bonus among pitchers in the 2022 international signing class, had improved upon the control problems that plagued him during his debut season. Instead, it was a paper transaction, as Torres was soon moved to the IL, not pitching an inning in 2023.
Dencer Geraldo, despite pitching in 2023, also probably belongs in the lost season category. After posting a 6+ ERA in his second DSL season in 2022, Geraldo's 2023 season was over after just 2 2/3 innings.
Left Behind in the DR
This is where the asterisks come in. Each of these four pitchers improved in almost every metric this season, but how much was simply due to having that year of experience under their belt? The players in the DSL are so young and there is so much year-to-year turnover, that even having that one extra year of experience can give the players a big advantage.
That being said, improving is definitely better than the alternative.
And none of these improved more than Anthony Flores. After barely breaking a 6.00 ERA in his first season, the highest bonus pitcher in the Brewers' 2022 signing class, shaved more than two and a half runs off his ERA. He was one of only seven qualifying pitchers in the DSL to post a FIP under 3.00, a group that included fellow Brewers prospect Enniel Cortez. His K/BB rate went from 1.36 to 3.56.
Aneuris Rodriguez, like Torres, finished 2022 with a solid sub-4.00 ERA but shakier peripherals. Those improved in 2023, with Rodriguez shaving 1.5 off his BB/9 while adding more than 1.5 to his K/9. While the Brewers' 2023 ACL pitching staff is going to be pretty stocked, those totals should put Rodriguez in line to join Flores stateside in 2023.
The improvements weren't quite as dramatic for Bryan Rivera, The Brewers' DSL innings pitched leader did, however, post a 3.57 ERA despite being the Brewers DSL starter most often hurt by the home run ball. The two-point drop in ERA was perhaps the most notable statistical change for Rivera, who improved his strikeout and walk rates, but less than the numbers seen by Flores, Rivera and last holdover.
That would be Ranwell Smith, the youngest and arguably least successful of the 2022 Brewers DSL starters. Smith, who walked more hitters than he struck out in 2022, raised his strikeout rate almost three K/9 and improved his BB/9 by almost two. He still walked a few too many hitters, but the fact that he still managed to be among the least successful said a lot more about the strength of the Brewers' 2023 DSL staffs, which posted above average results despite being among the league's youngest.
Journeying Stateside
Once Vizcaino was released, it appeared as if there were three locks to be brought stateside. Anfernny Reyes and Osbriel Mogollon served as the top performers after Briceno's promotion. Then you had Daniel Corniel, whose mediocre to poor ERA masked some of the staff's better peripherals.
To that the Brewers added two more, Manuel Rodriguez, who was only a couple of days older than Ranwell Smith, and surprisingly, Darling Solano.
Who had the best season among this group is tough to say, and you could make a case for any of four of them having the most promising showing depending upon which metric you use.
Mogollon had the best ERA at 3.72. That ERA, however, masked a walk rate that swelled enough to send his K/BB rate below 2.
Corniel struck out nearly 12 batters per 9 innings but also had trouble with walks. He had a 5.70 ERA, in large part thanks to two blowup starts midseason, but led the team in starts. He mixed dominant starts with bouts of ineffectiveness.
Rodriguez was one of the only Brewers ACL pitchers who wasn't victimized by walks, with his 5.7% walk rate leading to a solid 1.23 WHIP and him being the only Brewers' ACL starter to average more than four innings per outing. He also, however, had one of the team's lowest strikeout rates and was victimized by the long ball ... a lot. His 1.74 HR/9 dwarfed his next closest teammate. His ERA was passable for the league, but his FIP of 6.61 was more concerning.
Reyes had the highest strikeout rate on the team among pitchers with at least 20 innings and coupled it with a walk rate that, while not good, was at least better than most of his non-Rodriguez teammates. However, he did it out of the bullpen. Although an early move to the bullpen isn't as big of an issue as it used to be (the Brewers are much more open to moving guys they envision as relievers to the bullpen early than they once were), I don't know that it would count as a positive development, either.
As for Solano, the righty was a surprise ACL addition after being one of the more erratic members of the 2022 DSL rotation. He had one big plus, though, striking out more than 13 batters per 9 innings. That, however, eluded him in the ACL, as that number dropped below 7. His walk rate also jumped higher, moving above 10.
Reasons for Optimism
Despite the struggles, there are a few reasons for optimism about this group:
1. Repeating a Level Isn't As Big of a Stigma for a Pitcher
In general, I am skeptical of stats for hitters repeating a level, especially for the DSL. It's why I kind of tempered my enthusiasm for Yeison Perez last year and Demetrio Nadal this year.
The routes to pitchers developing, however, can be a bit more meandering, especially for ones that young. There is a reason why most of the highest money international signings, not just for the Brewers but in general, are hitters. It just seems like the advantage of an extra year of experience, in the absence of other improvements, is lesser for pitchers than hitters.
2. The Galindez effect
Yorman Galindez finished the season strong in Carolina. The thing is, you wouldn't have predicted that at all if you just looked at his ACL stats. He might not be the only one.
The average ERA for the ACL? 5.78
There is a chance that the absurd hitting environment in the ACL managed to mask signs of progress among the pitchers there.
3. A Bizarre Transaction
There is hard to find a silver lining in injuries, especially at the DSL and ACL levels. We've seen too many players lately who have ended up never throwing another pitch in the organization again.
That being said, remember when it appeared as if Aldrin Gonzalez, who had been getting some post-signing hype, was going to skip the DSL only to be put on the ACL injured list? Gonzalez wasn't the only prospect promoted only to be shut down for the season before throwing an inning.
Wande Torres was, too.
I will admit, I have no clue what this means, but most of the explanations I have come up with (wanting him to rehab at the team's Arizona facility, having been injured in Arizona getting ready to join the ACL club) point to the organization seeing something in the young lefty.
4. An Eye-Opening Combination
One of the intriguing statistics as Aaron Ashby was climbing the prospect ranks was that he combined the strikeout rate of a power pitcher with the groundball rate of a pitch-to-contact groundball specialist.
Flores put together that same combination in the DSL last season. He was among the league leaders in both ground ball rate and strikeout rate. It's more than enough for me to be genuinely intrigued to see if it will continue stateside next year.
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