A caveat: I am not a scout nor a coach nor anyone with any original insights to offer on any of the prospects who will be selected.

I do, however, enjoy looking at history, at trends, and trying to see how it could project some of what the Brewers are going to do with their picks.

So with that out of the way, here we go. This is, as the title suggested, a long, rambling blog covering everything from Brewers' draft tendencies to positions of organizational need to potential selections for their first pick, as well as a few other tidbits. 

Well That Came Out of Nowhere

The Brewers' 2023 draft has, thus far, been wildly successful. It was also in several regards highly atypical given recent Brewers drafts.

Since the bonus pool concept started in 2012, the Brewers, like probably all teams, have employed the tactic of taking a four-year college senior or two in the first 10 rounds in order to save money. The degree to which they did it in 2023 was more extreme, but that wasn't the biggest deviation from the norm.

From Ben Metzinger to Michael Ratterree, the majority of the money saving signings were hitters. Between 2012 and 2022, the Brewers only took four of the senior (or equivalent) 4-year college pitchers in the top 10 rounds.

Then last year, led by technically freshman eligible but really a senior Craig Yoho, they matched that total in one year.

On the other end of the age spectrum on the mound, from 2012-2022 they had signed only 6 or 7 high school pitchers to signing bonuses totaling more than $130,000 after round 10 (I couldn't find how much Gentry Fortuno signed for). Since the pandemic, there had only been one, Caden Vire, and never had there been two in a year. Then last year they signed four high school pitchers from day 3.

The question is, was last year a special case as far as who was available or does it represent a change in philosophy? To some degree the high school pitching will be dictated by aspects like bonus pool and availability of signable arms on day 3 of the draft. But will we see the Brewers if the Brewers shift their focus on senior signs to focus more on pitchers rather than hitters.

Where are the Needs?

Perhaps the best place to examine the Brewers' system's needs is to take a look at where there are not needs:

2nd Base, Shortstop, 3rd Base

In alphabetical order, you've got Adamczewski, Adams, Areinamo, Baez, Bitonti, Boeve, Brown, Ereu, Made, Martinez, O'Rae, Pena, Pratt, Quintana, and Wilken. Plus there are hopes for a bounce back from Guilarte, and Alastre and Rodriguez are pushing for backup roles in Carolina. If you can get a top-tier prospect, you find space, but there isn't a lot of playing time available for draft picks next season unless a couple of these guys get dealt at the deadline or during the offseason.

Pitching at High-A and Above

This is the most flexible for reasons I will get to in a bit, but for the meantime, if none are on the big league roster, you might be looking at a AAA rotation of Rodriguez, Misiorowski, Henderson, Smith and Blaylock with Wichrowski, Hunt, Kuehner, Herrera, Crow, Cornielle and Aquino at AA and, depending on health, Wagoner, Galindez, Woodward, Birchard, Knoth, Rodriguez, Letson, Corniel and Cortez in high-A. While the bullpens are a bit crammed as well, you could always fit a Craig Yoho type in who you plan to fast-track as a reliever. A few of the five youngsters could get held back in Carolina depending on how they finish out the season, and injuries always hang over any pitching projection, but at the very least this is not a position of need.

ACL Hitters

The one trouble with as many players having really good offensive seasons in the DSL as the Brewers have had this year is that it creates a log jam the following season as you condense two teams down to one in Arizona next season, especially since the Manfred Mandates have made the days of stashing 20+ hitters on a rookie ball team a thing of the past.

Right now, here is how things are shaping up:

Catcher: Luis Corobo and Freider Rojas seem like good bets to be promoted.

Infielders: Jesus Made and Luis Pena are the class of this group thus far, but Juan Martinez, as the third member of that infield, has quietly been really good as well. Kevin Ereu has bounced back from his rough first season and looks likely to be brought stateside. Jorge Quintana has thus far done enough, especially given his bonus status. Frederi Montero might be a half step below the others but still would seem comfortably on the promotion side thus far, at least in any other year.

Outfielders: Jose Anderson is at the top. I'm not convinced the Brewers are as high on Juan Ortuno as his stat line suggests, but that just means he's not a top-25 prospect, not that he won't be in the ACL next season. Pedro Tovar is shining in his second season, in large part because he seems to have discovered more extra base power this year. While Frandy Lafond hasn't hit for much power yet, he is looking like a possible promotion so far as well.

Add to all of these other possibilities including returners who strike out to much but have otherwise good numbers (Eduardo Charles, Roderick Flores), the small sample size wonder (Kegnnalex Seijas) or a guy whose peripherals suggest he might be this year's version of Tyler Rodriguez (Angel Gonzalez). Then you've got several guys who seem likely to repeat the ACL but it is too early to give up on (Pedro Ibarguen, Antony Gomez, Ramon Moreno, etc.). Even if Made and/or Pena get the Chourio/Lara/Rodriguez treatment and skip the ACL, that is still a lot of players.

So what does that leave? The following

Outfield

While Hedbert Perez will be set to return, that might be the only addition to the lower-level full season outfield rosters other than from the draft. While Ibarguen was great last year and Gomez, Moreno and Gery Holguin have all had their moments, all have a sub-90 wRC+ and a 28%+ K-rate. You also have the fact that unless either A) the Brewers promote Anderson straight to A-ball or B) you consider O'Rae an outfielder, the candidates for the Brewers' third best outfield prospect between AA and low-A next season would include a guy entering his third straight season in AA, a post-hype prospect coming off a major injury, an otherwise extremely talented player who can't seem to coax his K-rate below 30%, a guy less than four months removed from being released by another organization, and a corner outfielder whose career-best OPS is .703 and that came in an extremely hitter-friendly league. I have hopes at least one of those guys will break out, but there is playing time to be had in the outfield on the lower levels.

Catcher

Unless either of the minor league free agents who have helped solidify the position in Carolina and Wisconsin signed two-year deals, it appears as if heading into next season the Brewers have Blayberg Diaz, Satchell Norman and Edgardo Ordonez to divide between high-A and low-A. Additions here are needed, even if it is just undrafted free agents with solid defense and good intangibles. Drafting one on Day 2 and one on Day 3 seems likely. 

Low-A Pitching

The struggles of the Brewers' ACL pitching staff this season is no secret, and neither is the fact that most of the effective pitchers have already been promoted to Carolina. Of the healthy arms in the ACL, you've got one likely promotion for next year (Melvin Hernandez). Bryan Rivera has been relatively OK, and given the offensive environment in the ACL that might be enough. Anthony Flores' good peripherals might make up for the poor results. After that, it is probably going to take a big push the rest of this year or next spring for Bjorn Johnson and Eric Prado. There will be a couple of holdovers and returners from injury, but on an admittedly really early view, this looks like the shallowest pool of pitchers.

The question is, does this mean that the Brewers will target more advanced high school or JUCO pitchers, the kind of pitchers who typically start in low-A, or will they simply buck their recent trend and make the Carolina pitching staff a bit older, putting more of their 4-year college arms in Carolina to start with just because that is where the innings are.

Possible Scenarios with the Brewers' First Pick

1. Catch a Falling Star

Sometimes below slot deals push players further down the draft board than expected. It happened to the Brewers with Garrett Mitchell. The Brewers also have enough in their bonus pool to go a bit above slot, especially in what many consider to be a shallower than normal draft. Cam Smith seems to be the likeliest to slide to Milwaukee, and has in a number of mock drafts, but it isn't inconceivable that one of Kurtz, Caminiti, Yesavage or Tibbs could drop further than expected.

2. Chalk

There are certain draft picks that just make you go: Well, yah, that makes sense. They might not be flashy, but they value seems right, the fit seems right and, well, they make sense. For me this year, Carson Benge feels like a pick that makes sense. It wouldn't be the most shocking pick or the most exciting, but ... well ... it makes sense.

3. The WILD Wild Card

If Brody Brecht is still on the board, I am not going to begrudge the Brewers if they take him or if they pass on him. Each team is going to have to decide for itself whether the idea that they can be the one to harness Brecht's considerable talent is a worthy risk or sheer and utter hubris. I trust the Brewers' player development staff enough to go along with whatever they decide here.

4. An Underslot ... High Schooler?

When you think of under-slot signings, you usually think college players, and most of the significantly under-slot deals are. But with several high schoolers projected in the 20-35 range, maybe the Brewers can get a slight savings by splitting the difference between where the Brewers pick and where someone like a Theo Gillen is projected to go.

Other Draft Thoughts

Players the Brewers Could Draft ... Again

Although the most famous draft-eligible past Brewers pick is switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, he isn't the only former Milwaukee selection available. Vanderbilt starter Carter Holton is projected to go in the second or third round and Michigan catcher Will Rogers is also available. One guy I could see the Brewers drafting late, however, is Mississippi outfielder Ethan Lege. After a junior college career in which he not only walked twice as often as he struck out but also was almost hit by pitches as often as he struck out, Lege was drafted by the Brewers two years ago as a third baseman. He opted to attend Mississippi instead. His first season with Mississippi he maintained the quantity of contact, striking out less than 8% of the time, but the quality didn't appear to be there since he posted a sub-.700 OPS. This year, however, the quality showed up as he put up a 1.000+ OPS with 13 home runs and more walks than strikeouts before his season was ended prematurely by injury. This isn't a profile I usually love in one respect, for reasons I will get into in the next section, but for a senior sign at a position of need, taking Lege at some point could make sense.

One Potential Brewers Pick I am Leery of

I have for a while been leery of reading too much into the stats of lower-level minor leaguers repeating a level. The amount gained simply by experience rather than skill or talent, especially when they aren't exactly young for the league, is just too great. It has led me to start to distrust junior year breakouts as well, especially in light of how much Chase Davis has struggled for the Cardinals system this year. So that leads me to a guy whose mock draft blurbs read very similarly to Davis' last year: Ryan Waldschmidt from Kentucky. Like I said earlier, I'm no scout and don't claim to have any eye for baseball talent. But I can't shake being a little leery of Waldschmidt. Someone convince me I am wrong.