CheeseheadInQC

Any of the DSL players who finish the season with so-so stats need only look to Alexander Perez and Luis Castillo for inspiration. Castillo has been absurdly hot so far and Perez is hitting well too and is entrenched atop his team's batting order. Their OPS's last year in the DSL? Between .600 and .630.

With the MLB draft about a month away, I thought I would take a bit of time and examine some of the Brewers tendencies to predict what we can expect when the draft kicks off July 17. Catch a falling star The Brewers have no problem stopping the fall of players many didn’t expect to be there. Garrett Mitchell, of course, was the classic example of this, but Sal Frelick was routinely being mocked above the Brewers’ pick as well. They also have had no problem grabbing guys who were expected to go much higher one year out, be it in the first round (Turang) or later (Hayden Cantrelle) Walking wounded While there are rumors the Brewers aren’t interested in any of the injured pitchers in the first this year, they have shown a willingness to grab guys coming off injuries early. Drew Rasmussen is perhaps the most noteworthy pitcher, but on the hitting side they’ve taken chances on David Hamilton, Gabe Holt and Freddy Zamora in the first 10 rounds. We’re going to call him a catcher This is the one I wish they would stop. At some point, it just begins to reek of hubris. Every year it seems, going back to K.J. Harrison in 2017, the Brewers take a player who isn’t a catcher or, in Harrison’s case, almost everyone agrees shouldn’t be a catcher. They followed with David Fry in 2018, Thomas Dillard in 2019, Zavier Warren in 2020 and Wes Clarke in 2021. Fry was the only one who lasted more than a season behind the plate, and last time I checked, he wasn’t catching in the Cleveland organization. If you think the guy is worth the pick regardless of if he sticks behind the plate, then fine, but paying any sort of premium for the ability to kind of look like a catcher if you squint might not be the best idea based on past precedent. Scouring the JUCOs Between 2017 and 2021, there were 36 JUCO pitchers drafted in the first 10 rounds. The Brewers accounted for five, or almost 1/7 of the picks, an average of one per draft. The Brewers have also had a fair amount of success mining JUCO staffs. Ashby and Bowden Francis give them two of the six who have made their major league debut from over that time period. And then you have Antoine Kelly looking promising in Wisconsin and Carlos Rodriguez developing into the ace of the Carolina staff. Whatever the Brewers have been doing as far as devoting scouting resources to this level, it seems to be working. On the other hand … Too often when discussing drafts, fans lean back on “rules” as to who the team would or, more often than not, wouldn’t draft. There are no rules when it comes to drafts, only tendencies. Even in the far more predictable NFL draft, you can see it. The Packers athletic “requirements” for offensive linemen make them so predictable that if you had told me after the first round of the draft this year that the Packers were going to take two offensive linemen before the end of Round 4, I would have needed three guesses, max, to get both picks. Despite this, however, you will still see the occasional Caleb Schlauderaff or Jamon Meredith who bucks the trend. So while, given past history, all of the things I mentioned earlier are more likely to happen than on average, perhaps the safest bet is that the Brewers will buck their tendencies, either not doing something mentioned here or taking a high schooler early. It’s draft time. Always expect at least some unexpected.

I like to focus on the positive, and with the big league team slumping, I thought I'd start a thread on minor leaguers who vastly exceeded expectations this season. I'll toss out one per level, none of whom were in my top 75 on my preseason list. Triple-A Mark Mathias: I'll admit after basically two lost seasons, my expectations were pretty low. I viewed him as interchangeable with Andruw Monasterio, although in retrospect, there were plenty of reasons I shouldn't have. He has been much more than that and earned his big league call up. Double-A Cam Devanney: He's been talked about in some of the recent daily threads, but what a difference a year makes. I was worried that him being forced by a numbers game and age up to double-A last season would be a lasting detriment. Instead he has posted strong hitting numbers with reasonable to low strikeout rates. Went from thinking he'd be one of the team's offensive weak points to considering at least a Hernan Perez-level impact a real possibility. High-A Tristan Peters: He's well on his way to earning a spot in double-A before his first full season is done. Who saw that coming? Low-A Michele Vassalotti: A move to the bullpen seems to have helped him find the control he was lacking last season and has made him about as prospect-relevant as a low-A reliever can be. ACL Luis Castillo: The one guy in the system who makes Jackson Chourio look like he is in a slump. First two homers of his career, more doubles than strikeouts from a guy who had a .050 ISO last season. Who knows if it is legit or a hot streak, but for someone I'm not sure was among the top six outfielders on their DSL teams last season, it is a heck of a beginning. DSL Juan Baez: Signed as a catcher for a minimal bonus, Baez has instead played shortstop, third base and second base and committed just one error through six games (which for the DSL is pretty solid). He also has a 1.000+ OPS and as many extra base hits as strikeouts. One other note I find interesting: He has never batted lower than fourth in the order. Clearly the Brewers saw something promising in him in the Dominican camp before the season started.

Baseball America’s Brewers international signing review led with Lara, making me think they might have already considered him a better prospect than Barrios or Severino this spring. The way he is hitting (and with a low strikeout rate) makes me think if the Brewers are comfortable with him going through the stateside move in-season, he might be in the ACL in a couple of weeks if all goes well.

Devanney featured in the “other prospects” section of Fangraphs’ list a couple of times as a middle infielder with some pop. Outside of the anti-3TO Gabe Holt and maybe Valerio, he has one of the team’s best strikeout rates so far as well. When the initial Biloxi roster came out, I thought he and Diaz were the offensive weak points. Wrong on that.

For a place that traditionally hasn't yielded great offensive numbers, there are some pretty good stats being put up in Biloxi this year. Wiemer and Reetz have been the headliners, but Lutz, Diaz, Devanney, Valerio and Campbell all have an OPS of at least .780 as well, and Frelick is trending in the right direction. Now they just need to get Mitchell back and hitting like the rest have been.

It is obviously very early, but is anyone else thinking that if any of the DSL rookies get the quick Henry Mendez promotion, it will probably be Lara.

It is still obviously early, but outside of decent walk and strikeout rates, there was no statistical reason to expect Luis Castillo to get a spring training invite, but not only did he get that and a stateside spot, but he has hit in the top five in the order in each of the games and has hit two home runs after hitting none last year. Sometimes the tea leaves do mean something. Guilarte and Areinamo have both had pretty strong starts as well.

Luis Castillo did play last season in the DSL. He is interesting. He didn't have the best stats, but the Brewers liked him enough to give him a minor league spring training invite (and now stateside roster spot) over a couple of guys who had superior stat lines. It seemed one of the bigger issues was a lack of power, well, until tonight that is.

You’ve got last year’s over-slot high school picks (Vire, Low, Avina), guys who skipped the DSL in the COVID season aftermath and struggled in the ACL (Medina, Herrera, a couple infielders), and a few players who were competing with Cruz for the title of best pitcher on the DSL rosters (Mejia and Vallecillo). There are also a couple higher priced infield signings (Barrios, Guilarte), and several bounce back or sleeper candidates (Fernandez, Colina, etc.). No top prospects now, but enough intriguing prospects to think a few might reach that level in the future.

No real shock that Brailin Rodriguez is on the IL. Have to think he would have been in Carolina otherwise given his late season call up last year.

Carlos Rodriguez has put together six straight starts in which he threw exactly four innings and gave up exactly two hits in each, which is a truly bizarre statistical anomaly in addition to being really impressive. Over that period he has a 1.88 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 35:5 strikeout to walk ratio.

If the current DSL rosters are the actual ones, and enough guys have been removed to think they might be, you'll be getting your wish on all but one of these. Like I said, no clue if they are final, but if they are, Ordonez, Jamal Zalm, Jose Gonzalez, Michael Perdomo, Kevin Briceno and Stanley Encarnacion would be among the surprises not making the move stateside. If the rosters are correct, and assuming no more cuts, among the pitchers who finished the year in the DSL last season, the Brewers promoted all but two or three of the guys who made at least three starts and only promoted two who didn't.

Might have left him out there an inning too long, but nice bounceback start from Cruz.

Is this because of the overall organization roster limit? Do players on the 60-day IL not count toward it? It just doesn’t seem like a coincidence these moves happened shortly before the complex leagues get going.

I wonder when was the last time the Brewers had four in their top 100 was? As for Chourio, obviously he is young and some struggles will inevitably come, but if he can manage to keep his numbers around where they are now, at that age, with that potential, it is really easy to make the case for him being the Brewers’ No. 1 prospect.

With all the talk of the likely bad news coming about one Carlos Rodriguez, perhaps a quick mention of the positive about the other. For a guy who was supposed to be pretty raw, you could make a case he is the ace of that Carolina staff right now. Given how much luck the Brewers have had with their early-round JUCO pitchers in recent years, can't wait to see Henderson debut when healthy.

Saying we haven't had any success since Braun is hyperbole. Lucroy was great during his prime and heck, Mitch Haniger has had a pretty successful career, albeit not for the Brewers, along with the occasional solid player like Davis or Gennett. Not saying it has been ideal, and they do need to start developing more position players, but when you use as your benchmark one of the three best hitters in franchise history, you are setting them up for failure. Also, you know who fits the high upside profile you seem to covet? Corey Ray. Just saying.

Wonder if someone at Wisconsin is nicked up a bit. Can’t see them having Areinamo skip the ACL and Carolina long term.

As great as the offensive explosion for the Mudcats is, the numbers I am focusing on right now are these: 18 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 6 BB, 26 K. That is the combined line for the last two starts from the Cornielle/Rodriguez tandem. Between what these two are turning into and Jarvis earlier in the day, this was a perfect advertisement for the work both the Brewers minor leaguers and the pitching development staff have been doing to register what are hopefully lasting improvements this early in the season. The story of this year's Mudcats, given how young they are, was always going to be more about how good the players are in August versus how good they were in April, and it is nice to see these two among the group that is definitely trending in the right direction.

Jarvis has really turned his season around these last few weeks.

Not even advocating for him, but Mathias had a solid first year in AAA, followed by 16 middling games in the chaos that was 2020 and then an entire season missed because of injury. Can you really say he is "proven" to be any one thing?

Self-indulgent prelude: This is probably an overreaction, but I remember when the Brewers brass seemed positively giddy about the alternate site performance of their next great pitching prospect. Before Ashby's rise. Before Small showed he could miss upper-level bats. Before the injury. If that guy is truly back ... 1. Antoine Kelly, SP 2. Joey Wiemer, OF 3. Brice Turang, SS 4. Ethan Small, SP 5. Jackson Chourio, OF 6. Sal Frelick, OF 7. Garrett Mitchell, OF 8. Tyler Black, 2B 9. Jeferson Quero, C 10. Felix Valerio, 2B 11. Hendry Mendez, OF 12. Joe Gray Jr., OF 13. Eduardo Garcia, SS 14. Hedbert Perez, OF 15. Stiven Cruz, SP 16. Carlos Rodriguez, SP 17. Tristan Peters, OF 18. Abner Uribe, RP 19. Freddy Zamora, SS 20. Mark Mathias, 2B Next 10 in alphabetical order: Victor Castaneda, Mario Feliciano, Edwin Jimenez, Brandon Knarr, Ernesto Martinez, Darrien Miller, Israel Puello, TJ Shook, Russell Smith, Zavier Warren

I am guessing the strikeout totals are what is giving some pause on Wiemer. Everything else is there.

I'd agree, except I'm not sure he still has his prospect status if it wasn't for that injury. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers handle the starting rotation in Wisconsin. It seems increasingly clear that having Kelly face high-A hitters when he is on his game like he was today lands somewhere between pointless and sadistic, and Knarr clearly deserves his shot at Biloxi, too. Who replaces them, though? It feels too early for any of the youngsters. Taking into account the Brewers seem reluctant to fully stretch out Lazar do you drop Bullock down from AA? Stretch out Mort or Matulovich? Promote Brannon Jordan? Scour the Indy leagues? Morales and Vassalotti have made the decision after the inevitable Robinson/Hasler promotions happen much easier.