CheeseheadInQC

My apologies in advance and if anyone already made this reference... The Brewers signed (throws hands in air) Brock Holt. In all seriousness, seems like a good depth signing, but unsure what it means for the roster construction.

Will be interesting to see how you do it. I tried to do 100 after you posted this, and I'd put the over/under on guys on it who end up getting cut before the season starts at three or four. Once I got past about 75 it became a lot of fringy rookie ball hitters, relievers who were reasonably successful but old for their level and other pitchers who have missed the last season or two with injury. Granted, I only put on five of the most recent crop of July 2 guys.

Supak doesn’t need an NRI because he is on the 40-man. Barker has to be the biggest surprise to me. It seems weird to invite 90% of the likely AAA roster and not Barker.

While the initial results obviously aren't completely indicative of future success, I think last year was the first year that the Brewers' DSL team was even league average for hitting and that was with a team that was mostly rookies. Hopefully the improvements continue and the success of guys like Garcia, Parra and Cabrera carry over stateside this coming season.

I know this is probably more you making a comment on the third base platoon, but if everyone is healthy Erceg is going to have to earn playing time this season with Morrison and Healy possibly ahead of him at the corner infield spots. Erceg might have a clear path if he breaks through (why I mentioned him as a possibility), but he's not even being gifted the AAA third base job.

A lot of mine have been said already on the pitching side. While I am not convinced that last year’s breakthrough holds against better competition, if it does it would not shock me to see Bickford in Milwaukee at some point. As for hitters, it is tough. I don’t consider Ray a surprise on the same level Grisham (has already had success at AA and doesn’t have the upside questions Grisham did). Also, the AAA team is deep enough where it is going to be tough for any of the non top prospect guys to move up from AA and get significant playing time. That leaves seven guys. I am not sold on the upside for Mathias, Taylor or Hummel, and both Lutz and Feliciano feel more like 2021 possibilities. So I guess by process of elimination, if there is going to be one I would guess Erceg or Nottingham.

From just a numbers perspective this is good. They have a shortstop shortage in the upper levels.

Didn’t he pitch in the Brewers system last season? Apparently they saw enough to want him back again.

Cunningham's an interesting case because 1. How do you weigh the rushing stats and 2. He really only started started more than six games seven times. I believe he would have the fewest such seasons of any modern era Hall of Fame QB if he were put into the Hall. I don't know that there are any real differences in the quality of the Hall of Famers, and some of the NFL ones cited at least have the old "Can you tell the story of the league without mentioning them?" argument. Although, to be fair, a lot of the questionable baseball ones are from the veterans committees. The NFL Hall also has a more difficult job because the differences in responsibilities between positions is greater than in baseball.

To be fair, Bill Mazeroski is in the baseball hall of fame. I'm just saying ... On Eli, during one of these debates a few years ago I created a statistical model to predict if a quarterback is a Hall of Famer (it correctly calls everyone except Namath and Ken Anderson, and no statistical model is going to put Namath in). I haven't updated it in a couple of years, but last time I looked Eli was behind guys like Mark Brunell, Donovan McNabb and Craig Morton. And that is with bonus points for Super Bowl titles.

There is still a non-zero chance Hummel is Jake Elmore without the defensive value, but he was legitimately one of the most productive hitters in the Southern League last season in his first go around in AA, so that has to count for something. That the power increase happened in AA rather than AAA makes it seem a little more legitimate.

To be fair, that is still a really deep first round. Seven 30+ WAR players is at least four more than any of the previous five drafts had.

Unless there is something I've missed, is convenient really the right term? You can argue less inconvenient, but given all the criticism he has been subject to since speaking out, do you really think "convenient" is the right word here?

Would that have been better? Sure. But should we really be shaming someone for telling the truth even if it is after the fact? That seems like a pretty dangerous precedence to set just because you don't like the truth he's telling.

I’d think this will affect Beltran’s HoF chances, at least in the short term. Cheating is cheating and if you are going to keep the steroid guys out for one version ...

I get that this offseason has seemed to be, with the possible exception of the Garcia signing, an exercise in finding value to save for a larger move that seems as if it is never going to come. However, outside of a potential Hader trade, which is its own issue, the most realistic options at third base for the Brewers coming into the day were signing Gyorko or Frazier or trading for Seager. At $2 million the Gyorko signing is unlikely to deter trading for lefty like Seager if that is what the Brewers want to do and they find the price reasonable. So it comes down to Gyorko vs. Frazier on a likely somewhat larger contract. Frazier likely offers a higher floor, but you could make a case Gyorko offers a higher ceiling if healthy. I guess unless you thought one of the more unlikely trades involving a right-handed hitting third baseman was going to happen, I don't get the anger over the opportunity cost when that opportunity cost is likely Frazier.

I get that this offseason has seemed to be, with the possible exception of the Garcia signing, an exercise in finding value to save for a larger move that seems as if it is never going to come. However, outside of a potential Hader trade, which is its own issue, the most realistic options at third base for the Brewers coming into the day were signing Gyorko or Frazier or trading for Seager. At $2 million the Gyorko signing is unlikely to deter trading for lefty like Seager if that is what the Brewers want to do and they find the price reasonable. So it comes down to Gyorko vs. Frazier on a likely somewhat larger contract. Frazier likely offers a higher floor, but you could make a case Gyorko offers a higher ceiling if healthy. I guess unless you thought one of the more unlikely trades involving a right-handed hitting third baseman was going to happen, I don't get the anger over the opportunity cost when that opportunity cost is likely Frazier.

You can make a lot of credible cases in the bullpen for the right side. I went with Olczak with some residuals from his 2018. Castaneda's AFL performance rocketed him up in my eyes, and McCarville's run (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mccarv000kee) was eye-popping. Your three are easily in my top eight. On the left side, I had Perdomo and Andrews, albeit Andrews was 1 and Perdomo 2. as for QTC, he was #4, did well, but I want to see how his arm holds up post-Tommy John. Mediavilla's numbers (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mediav000mic) caught my eye. He's had two sub-1.00 ERA seasons as a reliever (2018 and 2019). Career WHIP 0.640. Because so often the guys who end up being the eventual relief prospects are starters in the lower minors, I rarely pay much attention to minor league relievers until they reach AA. I put together my top 25 vote through first doing a series of cuts. Right now 11 players who pitched more in relief than starting would make the first cut. Of those, only three didn't pitch at AA or AAA last year (or would have if healthy in QTC's case): one has the prospect pedigree (Bickford) and the other two will quite possibly be starting next year (Castaneda and Lindell).

You can make a lot of credible cases in the bullpen for the right side. I went with Olczak with some residuals from his 2018. Castaneda's AFL performance rocketed him up in my eyes, and McCarville's run (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mccarv000kee) was eye-popping. Your three are easily in my top eight. On the left side, I had Perdomo and Andrews, albeit Andrews was 1 and Perdomo 2. as for QTC, he was #4, did well, but I want to see how his arm holds up post-Tommy John. Mediavilla's numbers (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mediav000mic) caught my eye. He's had two sub-1.00 ERA seasons as a reliever (2018 and 2019). Career WHIP 0.640. Because so often the guys who end up being the eventual relief prospects are starters in the lower minors, I rarely pay much attention to minor league relievers until they reach AA. I put together my top 25 vote through first doing a series of cuts. Right now 11 players who pitched more in relief than starting would make the first cut. Of those, only three didn't pitch at AA or AAA last year (or would have if healthy in QTC's case): one has the prospect pedigree (Bickford) and the other two will quite possibly be starting next year (Castaneda and Lindell).

Also, Morrison is a minor league contract. That hardly counts as an impact signing.

Also, Morrison is a minor league contract. That hardly counts as an impact signing.

This offseason feels like the A’s teams from a few years ago that seemed like they were platooning everyone.

The Brewers might not have great quality of first base prospects, but they definitely have quantity at the upper levels. If Healy starts in AAA I count five first basemen at AA and AAA.

If I was being completely serious about it, I probably would have put Rasmussen in the top 3. Because I had all of them in the same tier I just put guys I might be slightly higher on than average. Truthfully I had Supak and File in that tier as well and Jarvis just a half step below. This category also includes a couple of my favorite sleepers in Luna, Walters and Olson. Like I said, I don't think anybody has a clear-cut spot here (Rasmussen has the reliever/health questions) and you can make a reasonable case for a lot of pitchers.

Here's a hastily put together alternate version Catcher: 1. Feliciano. 2. Henry 3. Nottingham Thoughts: Fry deserves an honorable mention here. Also, I have no idea what kind of catcher he is, but Jhonnys Cabrera put up a .799 OPS debut season in the DSL. Deepest non-pitching position in the system relative to number of players on the field. 1B: 1. Thomas Dillard 2. Martinez 3. Bautista Thoughts: Castro or Spanberger possibly should be placed here but the generally uninspiring nature of this group led me to dream a bit with Bautista, who wasn't great last season but I think got a decent sized bonus. 2B: 1. Mathias 2. Valerio 3. Holt Thoughts: Kind of wanted to put Valerio first here because AAA numbers from last year should be taken with a grain of salt, but giving up a decent catching prospect and a 40-man spot for Mathias makes me think maybe they see something. Hinojosa's stellar second half does bear mention. SS: 1. Turang 2. Garcia 3. Hamilton Thoughts: Easiest group for me to pick and order. Hamilton's a risk, but the upside puts him above any of the others who primarily played shortstop last season. 3B: 1. Erceg 2. Parra 3. Jaraba Thoughts: Proximity to the big leagues, although this was closer than it should have been. OF: 1. Ray, Lutz, Rodriguez 2. Gray, Bello, Abreu 3. Taylor, Howell, Medina Thoughts: Might edit this one later. I have a feeling I'm forgetting someone Starters: RHP: 1. Brown 2. Lazar 3. Francis Thoughts: I came up with 15 you could make a case for and none I felt should definitely be in, so I just went with my favs. LHP: 1. Small 2. Kelly 3. Ashby Thoughts: Kelly is likely going to be given plenty of time to develop into a starter if he's showing any progress at all, so I'm keeping him here Relievers: RHP: 1. Williams 2. Feyereisen 3. Barker Thoughts: Covered in an earlier post. LHP: 1. Perdomo 2. Andrews 3. QCT Thoughts: Perdomo's the upside guy, but it wouldn't shock me if the others manage to make an impact