BrewBalls

$9 mil seems a bit steep for this early for a bounce back candidate. I'm perfectly fine allowing Stearns to wait it out until February and take a flyer on any of the following who still haven't signed: Taijuan Walker, Alex Wood, Julio Terehan, Aaron Sanchez, Josh Lindblom, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly and Matt Moore

Good signing for the Phillies. I’m thinking reuniting with Joe G was a big factor in Didi choosing Philly. I think he will bounce back and have a 3+ WAR year. The bonus is he can be tagged with a QO if he does perform well which ensures you get something in return for him if he does leave in 2021.

I completely agree. I’d be asking for Clint Frazier as a possible replacement for Braun in 2021, Albert Abreu who has frontline stuff but struggles with control and the Yankees to pay down $5MM of Happ’s 2020 salary. I would also be in Preller’s ear asking what he’s willing to add from his loaded farm system to take Myers off his hands. These two moves could help restock the farm while remaining competitive.

Urias bat needs to be HUGELY improved to play at 3rd Exactly this...you need your corner IF positions to provide power...he can't do that, at least not enough of it. This is generally the case but if you are already receiving above average power from your two middle infielder spots you can get away with a high contact/OBP guy at one of your corner IF positions. I’m actually a fan of signing Gregorius since our infield defense would be much improved.

This is it exactly...so if we know that, the Brewers have to know that, yet this is the pool they continue to want to swim in, especially with pitching. At some point, it's like anything else in life, you get what you pay for. And when something you buy doesn’t work out and isn’t returnable what do you do then? Most would say you go back out and try a different thing which is suppose to the same thing. The cheaper you can pay for these types of risky purchases the more likely you can afford to buy something different. If we make a $24MM mistake on someone like Wheeler there is no chance Stearns can go back out and just sign someone like Bumgarner to take his spot. But $2-3 mil on someone like Miley, Gonzalez, Lyles or even Albers isn’t going to deter Stearns and Mark A from spending another $2-3 mil to correct their mistake.

In general I'm quite pleased Stearns as a GM, but he didn't have viable backup plans when two of the three young starters failed miserably. There was no one decent to plug in to their spots in the rotation until we traded for Lyles. Did you forget he went out and resigned Gio who came in and pitched extremely well before going on the IR. Last season Gonzalez started 17 games and two relief appearances for a total of 87.1 IP while posting a 3.50 ERA (4.04FIP), 1.294 WHIP and 127 ERA+ which amounted to a value of 1.7 bWAR. If you also consider how well Houser pitched he was a second pitcher Stearns was able to plug in when Burnes, Chacin and Peralta all struggled. Meaning Stearns did have options before trading for Lyles which contradicts your previous claim.

Why not get both since Smith can still be optioned and Bird will likely have to settle for a minor league deal with invite to ST. Best case both play well and you have a power bat on your bench. Worst case both struggle and we are out a lower level prospect, some payroll space for taking on Lowrie and whatever it cost to trade for a Smoak/Cron/Moreland type of player before the trade deadline.

GMs don't do everything, especially rank low-level prospects in a team in a different league 2000 miles away. They rely on scouts and talent evaluators on their team to assist when making moves. I would bet $1000 that Stearns didn't even know Freddy Peralta's name at the time he was discussing options with Seattle. That doesn't mean I don't respect the job Stearns does, but blindly assigning all success to him is just plain wrong. And the guys who were advising him on prospects during the Lind negotiations probably were fired when the Brewers cleaned house earlier this year on the scouting side. So that didn't save their jobs. As others have said, it was easy for Stearns to walk away from what the Rangers were offering if he wasn't willing to give the same money to Chase Anderson. This offseason is going to be different as the free agent market is weak in the mid-level talent and loaded with meh talent. Teams are aggressively going after the mid-level to low-level talent as there aren't a lot of options and soon we'll be looking at very bad options across the board. As things are going the odds of a Hader trade are going up. edit: Stearns may have heard of Peralta while with the Astros in his capacity there, but that might only change my bet to $500. I would tend to agree with you that it’s very possible Stearns had never heard of Freddie Peralta prior to Seattle calling about Lind. But I would be willing to wager Stearns asked his analytics and scouting personnel to provide him with pitchers in the Seattle system who have low walk and high strikeout rates which was something the trio of young pitchers he received for Lind all had in common. After seeing this connection, I have noticed Stearns tends to acquire type of prospects regardless of this on the field results (i.e. ERA, WHIP, etc.) along with pitchers who have live arms with at least one plus pitch but usually has struggled with control up until that point of their careers. This to me indicates he believes there are specific analytical stats which can help predict which types of pitchers are more likely to break out or have success in the majors. So IMO by asking for his staff to identify these types of players when looking for trade options he does deserve some credit for these lower prospect acquisitions.

I think this method of using your bullpen to pitch the remaining 3-4 innings regularly is the trend not the exception. Stearns and Counsell might have even revolutionized how bullpens are utilized more effectively by having guys like Hader, Pomeranz, Suter, Guerra, Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta pitching multiple high leverage innings whenever they determine this is necessary to stay in a game. If you have 2-3 guys in your pen capable of going 2-3 innings per outing it keeps your bullpen rested while allowing the reliever to continue getting outs when hitting on his pitches. I recently heard an interview with Seth McClung who discussed how much more taxing being a reliever was than a starter because you could easily be throwing 5-6 days in a row while only appearing in only a couple games due to having to warm up in the pen just to sit back down when the call doesn’t come. So the more multi-inning pitchers you can have in your bullpen the less you will likely need to warm up. Previously you would keep one “swingman” who was basically your 6th best starter in the pen to come in early and be the bridge to your back end of the bullpen when a starter struggles early. The statistics show the majority of starters struggle getting through a lineup the 3rd time so why not pull your starter when this happens to improve your odds of getting outs? So based on this reasoning and the fact you can no longer bring in someone like a Loogyto face a single batter, I’m more inclined to see the league follow the Brewers lead instead of trying to load up their rotation with several of the few players who are capable of pitching 6-7 quality innings every outing and based on how well players like Pomeranz and Lyles are getting paid this offseason I think this is the way GMs will go too.

Regardless of whether past regimes have had success developing pitching or not is really no baring on whether this regime will. I'd argue this regime is already probably better at identifying and developing pitching than any in recent memory (recent being relative of course). I've not seen any small market team consistently spend big on starting pitching and have that be a sustainable method for success. You can ask whatever question you want but we all know why DS doesn't spend on starting pitching, he simply doesn't see the value. You can agree or disagree but to ask why is a strange question. Benefit of the doubt, sure, why not? He seems pretty good at this whold GM thing but hey, I'm sure you're plan is good too. Based on a couple of his first moves at GM (Claiming Junior Guerra off waivers and trading Lind for Peralta +) shows he is a good evaluator of pitching potential. So I too will give Stearns the benefit of the doubt when it comes to not signing certain pitchers based on his future projections of these players.

I was on board with resigning Lyles for $5-6MM per over 2 years. So I’m perfectly fine with Stearns not matching the Rangers offer. As for needing 3 stud starters besides this year’s WS, how many times does one or both teams boast three top line starters? Also the 2019 Astros, 2010 Phillies and 2019 Dodgers all come to mind as teams who possessed elite starting pitching who didn’t win championships. Stearns clearly values pitchers who can consistently get outs and limit runs which provide his potent offense to our score any team on any given day. Because of this, I’d add guys like Julio Terehan, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Josh Lindblom and even Homer Bailey to go along with the previously mentioned guys like Keuchel, Walker, Gausman, Wood and Gio as pitchers who can provide quality innings to a playoff contender next seasons

This is exactly my take. We can get proven 'okay' results on the open market. But we are the kind of club that needs to take some risks here and there. Smith is by no means a sure thing. Otherwise, he'd cost a ton to get. But right now, he's stuck as a reserve - and that won't change with a 50-HR guy ahead of you. Now is the time to get him - assuming the club thinks he's worth it. I also agree you have to roll the dice on the potential impact player versus the slightly above average veteran who can be had at the trade deadline every year for an reasonable cost. Now as for taking back Familia or Lowrie. I can see pros and cons for taking on both players. Lowrie adds versatility, costs less and could fill a major hole left by Moose’s departure. Familia could regain form and be part of this season’s three headed monster, costs more which reduces the cost of adding Smith and is also an area in need of veteran depth. So I will leave this decision to Stearns and his team since they do a far superior job of analysis than myself.

The Brewers are the type of franchise who has to bank ondrafting and developing or trading for TOR starters since they don’t have the luxury of going out and paying for one on the open market. Stearns is now trying to do so by catching lightening in a bottle on younger starters who haven’t hit their projected ceilings for any number of reasons which is also a calculated but much lower risk than paying someone like Wheeler $24MM annually for the next 5 years. Now I don’t mind the idea and am elated when it does work out but also wish he wouldn’t put so much stock into these signings panning out. Although I also realize that having a limited payroll can limit the amount of veteran depth the Brewers can add via free agency and his reluctance to blow his entire wad in the offseason which would limit him before the trade deadline to make significant additions (i.e. Moustakas, Schoop, Pomeranz and Lyles). Meaning he needs to find a good balance which will obviously vary from year to year.

Sign me up for adding Kuechel and Wood/Walker. We need to add a solid innings eater who can consistently go 6 innings and adding Wood or Walker gives you a pitcher who has the potential to be a solid #2 if he can remain healthy and put everything together.

I completely agree. Even when Monroe comes off the books his cap space will be eaten up by the raises of Giannis and Jabari. So either we need to hit on our draft picks or trade one of Henson/Plumlee to gain some cap space to sign another quality free agent.

What workable pieces have they let go which you think would make this team a solid contender? Knight, MCW, Ennis, Bayless, Mayo??? All of these players are serviceable back ups at best and barely, if at all, even move the needle. We have three quality young players who we can build around but unfortunately one of them is out for a significant portion of this season. We also have several decent role players signed for 3-4 years (Delly, Teletovic, Henson and Plumlee) and some promising young talent (Maker, Brogdon and to a lesser extend Vaughn) who still could develop into quality players. Our core three are not ready to compete with the Warriors, Spurs and Cavs so we should just allow them to continue developing while adding more young controllable talent in next year's draft to better our roster. Personally I would like to move either Henson/Plumlee to free up some cap space long term but otherwise we are not in a terrible place financially.

It would be unwise to trade the face of our franchise, the most beloved player since Robin Yount, for two guys who you hope Stearns can flip. The flip talk drives me crazy. It isn't as easy as most think to "flip" other players. I hope Braun stays a Brewer, but is seems to me like we are going to have that idiot Puig on our opening day roster one way or another. In BrewBalls defense, he said to flip Puig and McCarthy. His proposal is adding a top 20ish pitcher in De Leon or a top 50 guy in Bellinger (plus a couple of other guys who are probably on the cusp of the Top 100 area). So the real prize is a potential top of the rotation arm. Personally, I'd be all over that deal - but I'm skeptical that the Dodgers are offering that much on the prospect end. But that's just my guess. I get the backlash for not wanting to add Puig or McCarthy to next season's opening day roster but both COULD provide some value and play well enough to garner a decent return at the trade deadline. Would I put money on this happening? No, but that doesn't mean it still couldn't happen if the chips fell our way. My main goal is to get as much talent from the Dodgers while they are in a clear "win now" mode. If we have to take on two bad contracts then so be it. If Puig is a locker room cancer or struggles, I am confident Stearns would be willing to cut ties and eat his pretty palatable salary. It would be very similar to the Brewers picking up a portion of Braun's remaining contract to facilitate a trade. McCarthy is a good pitcher, when healthy, and should at least provide some veteran leadership to our younger pitchers. If he cannot stay healthy, then again we can simply cut him and eat his salary while still keeping our payroll under $75MM.

I would be willing to trade Braun and Thornburg for McCarthy, Ethier ($17.5MM in 2017 with a $2.5MM buyout in 2018), DeLeon, Sheffield and Barnes. This frees up $15MM in payroll space since Braun only earns $18MM next season ($4MM is deferred) while Ethier and McCarthy count for $29MM combined.

I'm all for trading Braun and Thornburg for Puig, McCarthy and some combination of De Leon/Bellinger, Sheffield/Barnes/Lux and a couple of lower level lottery tickets. The hope is Puig and McCarthy can produce early next season so Stearns can flip them for more prospects and continue to stockpile our farm system.

Most years its never a good idea to trade back in the 1st since quality trumps quantity in the NBA. But this season there is a significant drop off past the top 8 players and then it remains pretty level into the early 20s. Thus said, I want the Bucks to trade #10 to Denver for #15 and #19. Draft Baldwin/Jackson at #15 and Zizic at #19. We now have our PG and C of the future to go along with our Giannis, Jabari and Khris. We can add some depth in the second round (Brodgon and Cornelie). Then resign Plumlee, offer Dudley a contract to return and trade Monroe to Portland for Ed Davis. PG - Baldwin/Jackson, MCW, Ennis SG - Middleton, Brogdon, Vaughn SF - Parker, Dudley, Inglis PF - Giannis, Davis, Cornelie C - Plumlee, Henson, Zizic

Agreed, we really need to move away from talking Tigers unless there is a third team because Tigers have a bottom 5 system in baseball. If DS takes any deal with the Tigers, he backed off of his price and lowered it 1st come, first serves, regardless of what you have to offer. Beau Burrows and Christian Stewart need to come back. Don't think either fall in our top 10. Hill would be in the 20-30 range. No one else cracks top 30 outside of maybe Jones at like a 28-30. Id take Jimenez in relief. Alexander would be alight Moye offers no more than Santana. I get the Norris thoughts to boost it but if we are going prospects instead, at least one needs to be good enough to fall in our top 10 after deal If we don't get a prospect back who can crack our top 5 I'll blow a gasket. We need at least one top 50 player and another top 100 to get things started unless we can land someone inside the top 20.

I'm in the same boat. As a coach he gives the Bucks organization some clout with quality free agents and incoming prospects. Giannis, Jabari and Khris all seem to like him which is important and I think LED has squashed the notion of Kidd every being the GM since we have already hired Hammond's replacement. His overall presence does put Milwaukee back on the map and coaching continuity is always a plus when dealing with a young team.

Noel might be to expensive for the Bucks to acquire. I would just prefer drafting a C (Poeltl or Davis) and letting Plumlee/Henson share minutes until our draftee is ready to contend for PT. We can still trade Monroe for the best package available. My guess is Noel will be traded to the T-Wolves for Rubio and Thibs will be drafting Dunn as his replacement. Dunn, Lavine, Wiggins, KAT, Noel is a pretty scary young core.

1. Trade Monroe, MCW, and #10 to Sacramento for Collision, Casspi, Koufos and #8? 2. Trade Henson to Toronto for Ross 3. Sign Plumlee (3yrs/$24MM) 4. Sign Motiejunas (4yrs/$36MM) 5. Draft Luwawu (8), LaVert (36) and Onuaku (38). PG - Giannis, Collison, Ennis SG - Ross, Vaughn, LaVert SF - Middleton, Casspi, Luwawu PF - Parker, Motiejunas, Inglis C - Plumlee, Koufos, Onuaku This lineup adds more shooting and defense to the starting lineup along with a deeper bench and some high upside guys in the draft who need and have time to develop.

Elise actually worked for me when she was in high school. They are both really good people. Scott's career K/BB ratio is pretty impressive (6.21). He only has 14 BB in 99 IP. He definitely projects to be a middle reliever at best in the majors but is definitely someone I'm keeping my eye on.