tmwiese55

With all the negativity Harper has been getting, Machado is flying under the radar for so far resorting back to his just good/ok hitting, not his outlyer half season he had last year. Currently at a 730 OPS and .327 obp. Popped into my head when someone mentioned depth at NL 3B. Yea have to view Yeli, Grandal, Moose as locks. Hader near lock and then it's just very difficult to get a 5th guy due to every team rules. Maybe Woodruff or Davies as replacements if they finish strong and guys need to pull out due to starting Sunday.

Him saying that is no different than every player every spring training saying they're in the best shape of their life. What's the guy gonna say, "I'm not nearly as good as I was and I feel like I'm off my game and will need two months to get into the groove". cmon. It's just media speak fluff that they all say

Pretty much agree. Just adding that I think some of that is the amount of trust the Spurs org has built up so people outside rightfully give them the benefit of the doubt in something like that. Remember they were the founders of preventive rest and the idea that being healthy for the playoffs was most important, so kind of last group you'd expect to rush a guy. But yea I generally agree that after the docs rushed him back earlier in the year that any trust he had in those docs was out the window, and rightfully so as well. Could be another what if moment in NBA history. If SAS doesn't rush him back, say he comes back in March instead and just goes on like normal. Resigns with SAS last summer, etc. Who knows how the whole league shakes out. Bucks are probably hoisting a title right now if so. But also the subsequent things from here with where he goes which affects where others go, does KD get hurt last night, etc. Also, playoff seeding would be different with Kawhi on SAS. Maybe KD doesn't get hurt at all, thus we don't get that title, who knows.

Or just that they simply think in his situation that extra rest is a good thing. He's also from Houston and has the new babies so he might be a bit preoccupied while he's home.

Eyeball test is still very bad on Aguilar. I'm always on the patient side but it's starting to be concerning where you just might have cut bait not far down the line. That said, I don't think they need a panic move there since Thames is doing well for now and covers the big end of the platoon. Once Hiura is back up you have another RH bat so Perez can play 1B. So come September/Oct you're kind of ok there assuming folks stay healthy. Still, I'd have my eyes on that market if I was them and see what shows up. There's probably a decent Granderson style pick up you can get right before the deadline (Frazier type person) to grab if needed for next to no cost if needed.

Agree, I think we'll have a revolving door for those last couple of spots. Lots of creativity around off days, injuries, IL stints to rest, and the like. Side note, I think I saw MN has only started 5 guys so far this. Has to be the only team. And their offense is just mashing there, good for them. Still figure they'll find a way to lose to the Yanks in the playoffs, as usual for them.

Yea that was the hidden part of sending him down when they did, he can't be called up for the DH this week. But I suppose both pitchers for Hous are RH so you have Gamel, not the worst thing.

What if he falls back to reality? Then we have an overpriced 1B who isn't even good for the position. People think someone is terrible when they OPS .850 over there (Thames) Well I was more figuring that Shaw would move to 1B and moose back to 3B. Not picking up Thames option partially pays for the contract of Moose, note I'm not a Thames basher at all as he's been fine. If you lose Moose might as well just keep Thames at the relatively low cost (assuming he does roughly what he's doing now for rest of year). And really Moose back to reality is still competent consistent MLB player. But yes of course it comes down to price on whether you do it. I simply meant the guys on your team already, good relationships with the team, hasn't been offered big contracts elsewhere, and you have this need next year (maybe even two needs if Shaw doesn't rebound). Just seems logical to try and keep him around rather than trying to find someone else. Hopefully it works financially to do it. But if someone offers him a 4/60 or something like that you just have to walk away.

Mets, Nats, Pirates, Cards, Rockies, Dbacks, Padres. All those teams are a good week of baseball from being very close to us in the standings. I can understand feeling like you have a 4-5 game lead on most of those teams, but that's a lot of teams that are very reasonably close to us...and most of them have much better minor league talent than us and can easily add if they can go on a bit of a run up to the deadline. This isn't like the AL whereas the 5 playoff teams have pretty much been known since the first month of the season. Oh yea for sure it's still way too early to be considering anything easy or a lock. Like I said key word was 'should' in all that. Plus really I was just comparing to last year, which this year is shaking out better. Not trying to say anything is a lock or easy as one cold spell or a Yeli injury could be a killer. But this time last year you had 3 teams in the West, 3 in the East. Plus us Cubs, Cards, Pirates. The numbers are just less this year, so far, so it's looking better.

Right, it seems they're going with the depth strategy much like last year. Really at this point you kind of only have two locked in starters like last year at the end with Chacin/Miley, and then it's kind of patchwork. It's much earlier in the year this time around though which could be problematic, however I think it's balanced by more talent this year so I think they'll end up better overall. Sure would be nice if burnes regains his lights out form of last year to sure up the pen and help make this strategy more effective as you're going to need some quality multi inning work from relievers. Also, IMO we don't need told ya so posts back and forth after every game.

Especially when they're the Giants, with probably the most elaborate admirer of HRs in Bonds still beloved there. Also one of the things that annoyed me the most about the Cardinals. They had the 2nd worst guy in the league for watching HRs in Pujols yet drilled anyone on the other team that did anything.

Generally speaking so far I think it's shaking out a bit better than last year in that at least no one else in West should really be a threat for the playoffs. Note that I say 'should', I know things can change quickly, especially have my eye on SD since they're a young team that could take off. But just saying compared to last year with Col and AZ all in the battle until the end but now they seemingly won't be. WAS also seems to have not rebounded to become a threat whereas last year they were better. Overall the fewer teams involved the better.

Resigning Moose does kind of seem like the logical fix to the 1B issue after this year. We can point to years of data and all that is not that friendly to Moose, I've been one to do it in regards to OBP, but watching games this year you can see a clear improvement in his approach to hit the ball opposite field better and with more sting to it. IDK if it's bearing out in any spray charts or anything, but compared to last year's seeming dead pull or pop ups his approach seems drastically better so his uptick in performance could be sustainable (not the 50 HR pace of course though).

That's been one of my main points on KM the whole time. Once he's signed and locked in he immediately becomes the trade chip/contract when a disgruntled star comes available again like happens over and over. Folks that don't follow closely enough or know how intricate the cap system is in the NBA don't grasp that. Now, of course it's still much better to have him locked in around 25 mil rather than 35 mil though, which is what I'm hoping here. That and of course as we wait and see what happens in that trade landscape it's better to have him here helping the team win

And spending 10-15 mil at the deadline is much different than committing that this year plus another 15 mil per year for two more years for a relief pitcher. Long story short, it's just hard to sit here and call the management cheap when they did shell out significant money at least years deadline for Soria, Granderson, Schoop. Then, this year they dropped 30 mil more on Grandal/Moose. The Cain contract. Then when the young starters generally failed to start the year, they spend what 3ish mil on Gio (don't recall exact number). As a small market team, they're being smart and strategic here trying to find values and short term commitments rather than being on the hook for a few years. Nailed both on Grandal/Moose yet folks are still ripping them. And yes I'm sure they see the Pen issues right now and moves will be made to help that out by the deadline. Dallas would probably be the more fitting one to complain about since he signed for only 1 year. But looking at how the late signees faired last year one has to be a bit worried about that as well. And again 13 mil there or maybe finding two bullpen guys for half the cost, certainly reasonable to sure up the pen instead. all this himming and hawing over how much money they have is just a waste of time. We just don't know and never will. If you're going to be a fan of the smallest market team just get used to it, they're not going to outspend and throw money around very often on large multi year salary commitments very often. But when they normally operate in the 90-100 mil area when they're trying to win but this year are pushing into the 120-130 area I think it's fair to say they've done their part and are trying.

I tihnk we generally do agree. But I'm not comparing him to Jeffress at all. I don't think Jeffress was ever THAT good and he had one absurdly good year. Kimbrel has had 6 or 7 as good seasons and when he's struggled, he's still been great. And I really do think it was just a few weeks. Like I said, Sept he had one bad outing and was dominant in the rest. Now you've got 1/3 of an inning where you gave up 4 Earned and 9 other innings in which you were dominant. He could regress this year though just for the simple fact that it's June 6th and he hasn't been a part of a big league club yet. So in that regard, he is especially risky for the Brewers. We don't need him, and there's always a risk with a guy who starts the year this late. oh yea I for sure wouldn't put JJ in his class. I just meant that the way he ended last year was a sign that something was up with his arm. In a weird way if that was the case with Kimbrel maybe this extended break is a good thing for him to rest it and he'll be strong for the stretch run. For the question about payroll that was just asked to me. It's simply that we have no idea what that break even number is so it's impossible to rip them based on it. But basica common sense in that they have their payroll up what 30% above previous normal highs would lead one to believe they're doing all they can or at least more than they ever have before. And no, me saying that 'you are acting like they're bumbling idiots' is not hyperbole. I believe that is exactly what you're doing here.

Yeah, all that shows me is a guy wasn't great for a couple weeks out of cherry picking stats to support a narrative. He was dominant in Sept except for 1/3 of an inning in which he gave up 4 Earned. 9 IP, 15K's 0 ER's the rest of the outings. You take a guys worst stretch and you can alter the realities of a lot of different players. There is very little actual evidence to support that Kimbrel's anything but a dominant reliever. And we have no idea why teams passed on him other than what they've said(or done in the past). The Braves are a notoriously cheap franchise. The Red Sox were not going to pay the luxury tax again(something you can sell to your fan base a bit more easily if you're the defending champs and you plan on going over it again in the near future). Oh, and he was originally asking for over 100 million dollars. That'd seem like a more likely reason a given team passed on him. I don't believe teams were passing on Kimbrel at 3/43. Using this logic, why did so many teams pass on Grandal? We got him cheap. Like I said, Kimbrel being great and it not being in the best interest for the Brewers to sign him can BOTH be true. Either way, stomping your feet....especially if said feet have been around and were adults during the late 70's/80's because we DIDN'T sign yet another high priced FA seems foolish to me. You and I are on the same page for the most part. I'm by no means saying Kimbrell is bad. But I'd be fairly confident he's not the freak he was for years. And is a good reliever (but not freak) worth 15 mil, probably not and that's why I think we held off. Take from our perspective of how JJ finished last to how he looks now though, it 'could' be a bad sign. I'm merely saying it 'could' be a sign of a downfall coming. It also could be a small sample blip on the radar, we'll see, but that half season stretch (not a couple weeks) is cause for concern/risk. I'd love to have unlimited money to have him but as a Brewer fan that's just not the reality. If I'm the Cubs, I think it's a great signing all the way. Exactly what they needed and 15 mil to them is no big deal. For us, if he regresses it could really hurt as it would cost us a key other player next year.

Keep in mind Kimbrel is a massive regression candidate too and it may have started last year. Ask Sox fans how they felt about it being an 8 inning game last year. And that they did up payroll significantly this year include two bigger FA signings, both of which they nailed so far. They were in a home Game 7 for the WS last year so I'd say they've done a pretty good job of getting Ueck one last chance at here in this window now. And remember that if they did many fan desired spend to spend moves last offseason like Darvish, Cobb, Lynn etc that they'd be pretty much ruined right now. Just step back and realize they are a contender right now, management has done a great job in this rebuild yet you're acting like they're bumbling idiots.

That may have been something... As I said, if I'm the Cubs, I don't mind punting a rough 2019 IF Kimbrel returns to his prior form in 2020 and 2021. If Kimbrel doesn't... Thinking it over more... while good Kimbrel is a huge plus if he is at his pre-2018 form, his contract becomes an albatross if he is struggling. The Crew could do better with young guns called up, even if they don't reach Kimbrel's ceiling. He was also pretty dominant in 2018. Whip under 1.00, BAA of .146, FIP of 3.13, 13.9 Ks per 9 IP. If you just get his 2018 season and not the all-time great pre-2018 stats, you're still getting a great reliever. So this really hurts to see the Cubs get him. It would have hurt to see the Braves or Phillies get him as well. And this would have allowed to use Hader much more effectively IMO, it would have had a big ripple for the whole pen. There's another side to this though that people aren't considering. Do we have any idea what the Brewers actually DID offer? We're just assuming that because the Cubs signed him for this much money that he would have signed with the Brewers. Chicago objectively is a more desirable destination than Milwaukee. Not for me personally, but for big time FA's, not hard to imagine he would pick the Cubs over the Brewers. Either way, this would have been great this year, but costly in the future as everyone has pointed out. The BP issues as this year. Next year we should have Wahl and Knebel coming back and who knows who else will emerge. Houser, Webb, it's really not even worth guessing. We've got a lot of good young arms. Even Snell could be a guy contributing by the end of next year. The Brewers aren't "pinching pennies" for profit as some want to suggest, they're spending their pennies(though I find it comical we're talking about 45 million dollars as pennies) where they can to sustain success. AS someone who wanted Kimbrel, I don't really see how you can get upset over that. Did you see the mid July to the end of the year stats that were posted in this thread? They were not good. He was very shaky to finish last year. Obviously could be a blip on the radar, slumps happen. But have to think that's what scared a lot of people off. And that doesn't mean I or even those teams think he sucks. There is a middle ground between bad and the dominant force he was for years. But do you want to pay 15mil per year unless you're getting the superstar he was? That's the question and why ultimately so many teams passed. Every team would want him, but just not sure if he's worth that kind of salary. Really, no non elite Chapman or prime Kimbrel level closer really is.

Personally, I'm still pretty ticked we cheaped out and didn't get Darvish.

And since we're against small samples like Perez, then Cain is better too. I mean, I can't wait until Hiura is back up in a few weeks too but ya'll need to relax a bit, take a deep breath.

Especially after the Moose/Grandal 30 mil was spent. can't believe the owner is being so cheap.

He's batting 4th because our All Star 1B from last year has been terrible. If we want no small samples I guess Jesus should be 4th since he has the larger sample of being good vs lefties. One side of the mouth is saying Perez is small sample Bs while pushing 17 game small sample out the other side of the mouth.

Or that sometimes Hader is going to finish games once he's in for the 8th. Thus reducing the inflated Save stat for Kimbrel.

You have to wonder why Boston had no interest in resigning him and why he was a FA this long. Meh, the later is likely due to high demands and then once the season started it is probably best to wait and see what team gets desperate while also shedding the draft pick attachment. The prior is a bit more interesting, but could be simply explained by not wanting to commit long term money to a closer. Mind you when they decided to not go after him he was asking for a ton of money. I am sure the terrible postseason also sits in their mind making them a bit hesitant to resign him...teams are very sensitive to good or bad postseason performances. I had him in fantasy so I watched closely. It wasn't even just the postseason. He was shaky the whole second half. It was very Krod like with how there was always guys on base and drama, lots of walks. Who knows maybe he was just tired and it's not a big deal and he'll be fine. But Boston must've been a bit worried to commit long term. I think it's a good signing for the Cubs in their situation and money but it's riskier than people think as he just might not be what he was anymore.