tmwiese55

Any chance it's possible that it's not out of greediness by owners just take make the extra money but that they generally know their operating expenses and what the player salary target should be for their team to profit/even and therefore have figured the best way to win is to maximize that budget. And having 30 mil dead contracts for two years is not the best way to win. Sure,you can just say spend more and lose money or make less. But many times there is groups of owners, not one guy, and many times the team can't just operate substantially in the red as a lot of the owners net worth is tied up in the equity of the team (which he's not selling anytime soon) so he's not exactly liquid with that and much of his private wealth might not be liquid either. I guess that was just a long way to say, that maybe they've just realized a better way to get more bang for their buck even though they're going to basically be spending the same buck they have been previously. As in maybe some really do want to win and think this is the best way. And for the mega market teams, this one year dip to get below tax allows them to get back into spending big in coming years again (and to pay more of that $$ to the players rather than the other owners via the tax).

We pegged it in this discussion here didn't we. I still think all this will end up leading to a shift in moving pay to earlier in players career. IMO that's the clear hiccup right now, 10-15 years of evidence on how badly these mega contracts age has led to this offseason. And that has combined with the stricter tax and the big markets all trying to reset their tax and space for the better FAs next year. Bit of a perfect storm.

It's not like they have a clear guy to play 3B though outside of blah Perez. And Shaw was great at 3B too.

If they're going all in I don't think they're all about starting a rookie in the OF as their starting plan. Especially one who almost for sure won't be able to hit lefties and has had plenty of contact issues. I'd guess they view Phillips as the perfect 4th right now due to his great D and ability to play all 3 spots. And it'll get him a ton of ABs as he fills in for everyone, and obviously Braun's likely missing 30ish games. So kind of a dip your toes in approach with him and see how it all goes and due to the good D if he's needed for an extended time they're comfortable with him.

He came and gave an exact explanation to what he said and why it didn't come to reality. Can't say he avoided it and all have to realize he's just relaying information and none of this stuff is exact with so many variables that can change things and he's hearing the MKE side of it. Just appreciate someone is willing to give some tidbits that he can and take for what you will. He's given no reason to think he's grandstanding or all out BSing for attention. No need to be a jerk to the person.

Should have brought back Escobar to play 2B too when he was a FA. Get the whole Greinke package gang back together again.

And a deep rotation/team should also be what makes a team very strong in the regular season, and hopefully reducing the chances of needing that 'ace' in a one game WC playoff. Sure, it's best to have aces and depth in rotation like WAS/LAD. And then once you're in anything can happen. Of course the issue is how strong the Cubs also look the next couple years, so just kind of talking in generalities. As I think all are aware, Dodgers and Nats have yet to win in spite of multiple years with their true Aces. Bumgarner shows the opposite. but I'd guess if you go back and look at all the WS teams of the last 10-15 years you're going to find several different combos of teams that pulled it off.

In this case TB is not in 'need' to trade Archer. They can use him as a chip to try and demand as much as they think they can, maybe they'll cave later and take what they can get, maybe they'll hold him and trade at the deadline or next offseason But there's no deadline here and he's signed for 4 years, no rush for them so can try to get as much as they can. They need to be won over and after what MKE just did they could have seen it as an opportunity to get more for any number of reasons. One, that the team has a glut of OF now. Two, they clearly showed they're in all in mode and know they can't half #$@ it. Three, saw what MIA got and what that means for where they should value Archer. And there's a few more beyond that someone else listed as well. Of course we don't know for sure TBs reasons but I don't agree with your assessment that leverage doesn't exist. Might have been a factor here, might not have. But it comes into play in almost any business negotiation. And I didn't see anyone say they were trying to beat anyone, just that the new info they received that day could have made them think they could extract more in the deal so they wanted to try doing it. Or possibly they would have ended up making the same counter offer regardless after they talked about the proposed deal amongst themselves. Maybe they'll cave, maybe MKE will move on, maybe MKE will cave and pay more. That's the game of chess they're playing.

Best case for the Brewers for if he signed elsewhere is clearly back to TX. Cubs obviously makes them stronger the next couple years while we're trying to win. LAD would also be really strong with him and make them so tough in the playoffs. Reports are that his preferences are LAD and TX. We should all be hoping for TX.

Was just going to write the same thing as superfly. The key decision point is that those two aces are going to cost you about $100 mil more than Archer, would you rather give up prospects or take on the risk of such a massive contract as those guys? That's the debate and it could go either way, no one is crazy. Those bashing the other side and calling names aren't helping the conversation. If he was a 29 yr old FA without injury history, he'd be right in the same financial window as the top two guys. Heck might even get more. Yu is what 3 years older and had a TJ. Arrieta is older and showed huge signs of decline last year, and was an out of nowhere guy to begin with who's own team seems content to not want. With PED rumors in his past. I can see all sides, since it's not my money I guess I lean toward paying the FA and keeping the P prospects as insurance. But if Archer is Santana and only one of Wood/Burnes, no Ortiz, No Huerra, and two other prospects I could probably accept that since we're all in. then enjoy the ride the next 3 years. At the start of this whole process I was on the side of not emptying the farm right now, but since we're half in right now anyway, you kinda have to go all the way now, you're pot committed. Of course it sounds like MKE is considering doing both, I'll believe that when I see it. Also, I do like Garcia as a really cheap option as the other guy acquired with one of the higher level guys. I'd be curious how much he's asking, can't be much and can't be more than two years after his blah last couple of years. Should be low cost/risk. Gives a lefty starter which we don't have and none of the rumored targets are

Phillips is an unproven hitter with some K issues so we're not sure how he'll do. Perfect 4th for this season and will get plenty of ABs due to Braun's days off and likely DL stint. Still, it can only help the team to have Braun work at 1B and see how it looks. If he's passable it provides much more options for certain matchups and options in case of injuries to the 1B. And of course gives options down the line if Phillips proves legit in his good amount of ABs this year. Of course, this is assuming Santana is traded.

Agree. The injuries have killed his counting stats, and missing a half season for suspension. Suspension took away a prime year for him and the nagging injuries after did more damage. If he was at like 350 HRs now instead of 300 he'd have a shot with a couple more good years. No way as it is now, even if no PED.

Braun would be #1 in that scenario for me. And before you get roasted for the HOF thing you should edit that say if not for PED, because there's no way he's getting in.

I agree with Adam's money comparison there if that is what the options are. But I feel like Cobb might be the best value of all these options. Archer will cost a ton of prospects. Arrieta/Yu will cost a ton of money. Cobb might be in that sweet spot of 15ish per year instead of 25-30 and is a few years younger. though he had a TJ surgery and last year was his first back. Maybe that keeps the prices and years down.

I actually agree that 1B might be worse for his injury risk. More bending, stretching, diving, getting hit by the ball, etc. Involved in way more plays rather than just being able to stand around a lot. Counter is less running, so who knows

Just two seasons ago in 2016 Braun played 135 games and hit 305 with 30 HRs. Last year obviously he was on the DL early but his advanced stats said he was hitting the ball as well as he ever had. And then he got hurt again at the end of the year and it killed his numbers when he tried to play through it. The point is, if healthy he's the best hitter so you're not going to sit him when healthy other than the 1 day a week like they've been doing for years now. You just need to plan on having an adequate 4th like a Phillips to be there for the planned days off and if he hits the DL for a couple weeks rather than trotting out the Keith Ginter types.

I don't know if it's been brought up here, even if it was I'm sure it's buried and was missed by some. but the Red Sox could be a sleeper for Santana due to a clause in Ramirez's contract that needs them to give him less than 500 ABs this year or else he gets another year tacked onto his contract in the 23mil ballpark. So, they could really use an upgrade at DH and to have Ramirez be a backup/fill in when injuries happen. I suppose the same logic would apply to Braun but obviously the no trade clause and large contract he's owed too...

Yup and I know even 3.5 is not 'ace' level. Which is the price they seem to be demanding. It wouldn't shock me if back in a winning team and with some more focus that he'd end up more low 3s but no way I'm banking on that or paying as if that's a lock.

And Broxton had his shot last year and proved he can't hack it. He's just a guy, nothing to be concerned with. Fine as a backup but he's the least of their worries right now. If somehow you end up with him as your 4th OF he's fine, but not a big deal either way and really you'd prefer him as your 5th so that he's not one injury away from being needed every day.

I generally agree on the asking price on Archer just seems a bit whack. However, I also am confident in him being better than his 4.0 era suggests. First, I've watched him a fair amount and his 'stuff' passes the eye test. Our P coach worked wonders last year too which should help. But the big thing is taking him from AL to the NL, and not only that from AL East. If we got him and he's healthy all year I'd be confident in 3.5ish for this year. Long story short, I do think he's good but I also agree the asking price is too much. He's not Sale or prime David Price level.

I don't think I've seen it yet, but any Cajun or New Orleans style are usually great as well. Was never on my radar until going to the UW/LSU football games. They know how to do food down there.

I agree too, we have what looks like some of our own SPs coming up that we can control (a real anomaly for the Brewers) for years and have some strong confidence in Woodruff/Burnes being legit so I was fine rolling with the rebuild and planning on those guys the coming years. But after what just went down, we know the team's mindset is a bit different. However, due80s points is kind of why I'd rather just bring in one SP and roll with it and I'd prefer it to be the FA route to keep our farm. Or have it be for someone less than Archer in order to keep both P prospects (so a Salazar type maybe). I view Darvish as a no way, too expensive and he's likely just using us to gas up the other teams. Cobb is realistic though. Of course you don't have the high end starter everyone wants in the playoffs, but your rotation is very deep and you have a legit shot at the division. And just getting into the playoffs is more than half the battle, anything can happen then.

One has to think Stearns was fairly sure he had a Santana deal lined up when the two big OF moves happened. But somehow it fell through. I wonder if now in hindsight they're wondering if they should have only done the Yelich trade and played him in CF. Then took this Cain money and bought a SP. Issue of course is it would be going with a rather weak defensive OF and we know that was a priority in making the moves. I'd guess they still do both moves and are confident they'll figure out a resolution to the rest at some point in the next couple weeks.

To that end. I just ran through the FA list again and after JD there isn't really a starting level OF available. And obviously none that are 25 yrs old and cheap controlled for 4 years. Of course, an issue could be that some view him as primarily a DH at which point you have the Dudas/Lomos coming into play too. But maybe after JD signs they can get some action going. Also, Jon Jay still out there. Hopefully he doesn't go back to the Cubs and keeps killing us.

Right. Because someone has to go. If it's not Santana, it's someone else. And yea I agree on Jesus too could easily be a regression guy too. That's something I've said on both Thames/Jesus the whole time. Put them together in a hard platoon and I think they're 'fine' though. Of course if Braun can do almost everyday (at least Braun's version of it) it's an upgrade though.