tmwiese55
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Everything posted by tmwiese55
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Yea technically if Burnes and/or Adames are going then so should they. However, I kind of agree with you their idea of being competitive will likely have them keep those two to still try to be above 500 and have a chance at the playoffs. Then trade them when they have 1 year left. There is a solid logic with it since the division is trash. Plus is their returns gonna be drastically different if they trade them this year vs next? Side note, saw some rumors update thing saying Phi was open to trading Castellanos, think he has 3/60 left on his deal. A stay completive type move to help fix the O could be made up based around Williams for Castellanos type trade. Phi's big weakness is bullpen.
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Yea there's really no way to quantify it to 'prove' anything in a topic like that either way. It's mostly eye test and maybe you could look at general record say the last 1-2 months if you wanted to try to find something. But yea there was a year or two in there where they gave us problems when totally out of it late in the year. The OP was basically just saying it seemed like his teams still cared/tried and gave effort all year even though they had no shot at winning. sure there's no way to 'prove' it as teams that bad can't really win much no matter what. But folks like us who've followed baseball forever know there is plenty of teams that are just checked out the last few weeks/month. It would generally be a good thing if a manager over an intentionally losing team kept his team bought in and caring the whole time anyway. I'm not one who bashes CCs in game stuff since no one can get every BP move right but even the biggest haters on him probably have to accept his biggest strength has seeming being able to keep a great locker room attitude/culture in spite of tons of turnover in players year after year. If someone with more access (like those in charge of hiring for this) than idiots like us on the internet did their digging and found out the same was true about Mattingly that would be a good thing.
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Bellinger is one I was thinking of a few days ago when I said I hope the Cubs blow their wad in FA this year. There's a very good chance they'll be voluntarily taking on a Yelich type burden of a contract. It'll probably be similar money to what Yeli is owed too. But yes, at his age maybe the bounceback year wasn't a fluke. Sure there is a chance of that. But the advanced data doesn't say so. But its just an example of what I mean by this FA class is very questionable if Bellinger is one of the top guys with all the risk he involves.
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Agree. Losing these two ace pitchers is very huge. And in such a move Williams should be traded too. You're essentially losing your 3 best players. Even assuming you do well on the trades it will take really amazing luck to turn a complete blank slate of starting pitching after Peralta to the playoffs in just one year. Its not like the O is all of a sudden gonna become top level to balance it out either. Don't get me wrong, I do generally agree with the strategy just discussed. And I do agree its not like they'll bottom out to true 'rebuild/tank' type level so it won't be as painful. But with how light the minors is in ready pitching it will take a ton of luck to replace the pitching so quickly. Being in a crap division does give some glimmer of hope though as putting together a .500 team that happens to get luck to win like 88 games could win the division.
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Yea, what "advantages" do "small" market teams have? That's what I'm getting at, this is really a thing, big markets think this?
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Forgot to add this earlier after reading the comment here about rooting for jerseys. Not sure if the OP knew it but this was on a Seinfeld episode probably around 30 years ago already.
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Yea it's dirty as heck what they did there. No doubt about that. And now CC can't be too surprised when they do it to him in about 3.5 years too. I was getting at a different topic of how its even possible for big markets to complain about the systemic advantages the small markets get. I mean, cmon. Is that really a thing? The big markets think its bs how unfair of an advantage the small markets have? Big markets think the system is rigged against them?
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Welcome and good post overall. However, did you just say as a big market fan you think its unfair the advantages that TB and MKE get in the structure of the system? That has to be a typo doesn't it?
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But in general those with the most resources/money are more likely to make the playoffs than those without. The Cubs specifically not much the last 5ish years but there is a correlation to money spent and making the playoffs in mlb. And let's not forge the Cubs had quite the 5ish year stretch just before which resulted in a championship.
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Was reading this thread and this guy popped in my head but couldn't think of the name. Was literally about to google to figure it out then this post came up. They all talked about him like a future manager but post playing career he hasn't been involved at all, according to Wiki. Coaching kids and doing some TV/Analyst stuff.
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Its been said how along with this Cubs are going to be so active in FA this year to jumpstart and move them past middling team. Well I just ran through the FA list and let's just say I'm unimpressed and I actually hope they do try to blow their load on this class. After Ohtani (and even he is less since he can't pitch this year) there's a whole lot 'sure they're good/fine but no way I want to give them a huge 6-7 year deal' types. Several of which are inconsistent players already, and that's before they get paid and start aging. Oddly for Brewers fan one of the safest bets out there is Hader, and obviously there is a connection there. Sure he'll be overpaid but I mean safe in that you know what you're getting and he's almost for sure gonna be good. I'd also expect them to go hard for the Japanese pitcher. After him, the MLB FA starters of course are no guarantees and not guys I'd want to be handing big deals to. OF course they'd help the team especially from just good depth but to use this boards favorite term they're not 'needle movers'.
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Are you familiar with what Cubs management did with a ROY and MVP winner over a small amount of money? And they're one of the richest teams in the league. Market rate talk also make no sense. By one's definition of market rate it is impossible to have someone who overpays, which of course is incorrect. If I have a 1998 Dodge Neon with 225K miles and I talk someone into paying me 15K for it that does not make that the market rate. That person overpaid.
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Yet has finished better than them in 5 straight non 2020 covid seasons. don't get me wrong, I get the overall point and I'm sure being on a team constantly dealing with fighting budget is a problem. But statements like this are just too far. Everything MKE management has done the last chunk of years has been better and smarter than the Cubs. Also, the Cubs just let all their star players walk instead of paying them. IMO they were correct in doing so and long term those were the smart moves. But contrary to your statement the owners pocketed all the profits rather than pay their players.
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Just looked, no Cubs manager has made it more than 4 years since Riggleman made it 5 in the late 90s. Before that it was Durocher in the late 60s
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And really its an indictment on how baseball is set up than it is on the owners imo. After all these years how have they not moved to a system close to the NFL/NBA is nuts to me.
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Think post in other thread didn't work. But pretty much this. It wasn't about him hopping, its getting fired. IMO, barring big FA signings we can't foresee right now the Cubs aren't set up to be more than a middling team the next few years. If they win like 79, 83, 78 games the next three years he's on the hotseat if not fired. The Cubs current manager was a hometown-ish World Series hero for them and they just blindsided him after a public endorsement with a stab in the back after a couple middling seasons (this year even being an overachievement). It's gonna be cutthroat for him there and he doesn't have the years of goodwill and ties to them like he did here.
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33% chance?
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Yea with our likely step back coming next year he thought this was the time to move on. I don't blame him at all for wanting to leave right now and trying something new. Just don't get leaving to go to a same or worse position than he would be in here in terms of winning. Houston/Mets, makes sense. But I guess if 5-6 mil spread over 5 years is that big of a deal to him when he's already rich, so be it. Keep in mind he'd save money here in taxes to make up some of it, and if took Houston would've saved more too.
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I guess we'll see how much the Mets/Hous pay their guys. But IDK this seems like a weird move to me. Sure its the highest but have to think we had at least 5/30 on the table. But here is near untouchable job security. Cubs aren't really ready to win anything so good chance he's axed in a few years. But now going to our rival he kinda burned his bridge here. To me I'd have just taken the job security and being able to have an all time legacy here as best manager they've had for his hometown team or bounced for Houston to take your swing at the titles. Or even Mets with their money is more of a HR swing and doesn't have the stabbing your hometown in the back aspect to it. Weird move other than still being close to home.
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First, good luck passing it. Second, what happens is it would just get made up elsewhere in property and consumption taxes. Forget the TX vs CA bs in it. The money has to come from somewhere, this would just shift it around (and likely would leave more burden on the average joe) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/think-texas-cheaper-tax-burden-161359267.html#:~:text=Though Texas has no state,a new report from WalletHub.
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Even this year was generally a cobbled together rotation due Woodruff's injury. You had Burnes/Peralta stable then scratched through the last 3 spots of injuries, AAAA guys, scapheap pick ups to get by. In addition, Burnes/Peralta were just ok this year but they were stable all year. To the comment that he's always had an elite bullpen. That is generally true. However, who is responsible for it? He has to get credit it for at least some of it. They turn over the bullpen almost every year and the new guys each year that we've never heard of somehow consistently step in and take the places of the guys we all hated to lose. Like going into this year the only 'known' was Williams. Yet, I had no concern what they/he would do to replace everyone would work out just fine. And it did.
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I find it odd so many people and the general narrative is that it is bad that mediocre teams getting upsets and possibly winning it all. I'm someone who's generally been against college football expansion of playoffs basically due to the fact that the 2-4 team format rewards regular season and is one of the best formats in sport to actually have the best team win the championship. Essentially everyone bashed it for 20 years but in reality it was probably the highest hit rate of the actual best team winning. So for years I've been told I'm an idiot for that take, since CBB Tourney is so great, upsets are fun, give everyone a chance to settle it on the field, etc. Just weird that people flip flop based on what sport it is. For baseball, the four teams on each side they had for years seemed to be a good enough balance and I wouldn't have changed it. What they did has helped the regular season though, I'll grant that so it's not like I'm too upset about it. But if the end of season tournament is supposed to crown the best team it is a big negative there especially in a sport like baseball so prone to flukiness.
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And then get Trea Turner to replace him. Only to not re-sign him as well. Not sure what the thoughts were there, only thing I could think of is wanting to save that Turner/Seager money/contract for Ohtani while trying to get under the tax thing. TBF, they've also gotten really unlucky with pitching injuries (May, Buehler) along with Kershaw often regressing in playoffs. The Dodgers pitching situation is one of the thing that had me cautiously optimistic this postseason. Unfortunately we got unlucky getting AZ instead of MIA.
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I didn't say anything about playoff eras. Again, I'm not basing this off one game and am not a subscriber to the fallacy of small sample "sucks in the playoffs" like many commentators do in all sports. If you think about, as a starter Burnes was absolutely dominant for 1.5 years. The rest he's just been good. He's gonna get paid off the 1.5 years like he's done it for years. Again, very good top end starter deserving of a big payday. But expecting him to all of a sudden go back to what he did for that 1.5 years should not be expected, but I think he'll get paid like it. ETA: did a quick glance at Verlander's career, he had way more fluctuation up/down than I would've guessed. He's probably not the best example. But the overall point I'm getting at shouldn't be hard to decipher. For the most part, its extremely rare for mega contracts to pitchers to work out well. I don't think its crazy to say I think Burnes' won't as well. Especially with how small a track record of top top elite he has and that for the last 1.5 years he's just been good, not great. Sure he has another year, maybe he'll go fully Cy Young level again next year and prove me wrong. Hope he does if he's still in MKE
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Yes I know that even top pitchers don't throw shutouts every game. He has these blips/blow ups noticeably more often than the type of guys I'm talking about, thus not as good as them. Again, still very good but if you give him 35-40 mil per year you're probably gonna come away disappointed. From mid 2022 until now his stats are not at the level to warrant that type of pay but he's probably gonna get it in this crazy time of contracts, and my guess is their fans are going to come away disappointed in his 3s ERA and how many HRs he gives up
