tmwiese55
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Everything posted by tmwiese55
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2021 MLB Postseason: AL & NL Wild Card Games
tmwiese55 replied to Eye Black's topic in Archived Game Threads
ESPN does something different than everyone else with their mics around home plate/pitchers. Stuff like this always shows on their broadcasts. Things like ball hitting catchers glove, crack of the back are amplified with them. Agree with some of the earlier posts about the lack of other games, stuff going on all day. Many weekdays have a couple games throughout the day. With the work from home world now MLB tv has been my background all for 6 months now. Much different the last couple days. -
So you got back to 3 years of being better than they've ever been, seems right around 4ish to me. And the years prior were their normal area of finish, but in there was the best QB recruit we've ever had in Coan and better more athletic WRs than previously. And every year since they've been back they've gotten top level OL recruits with offers from other big time programs. Yet the O has been blah the whole time. Point wasn't to nitpick, it was to say their recruiting hasn't fallen off the cliff to be taking bums as the posts before were hinting at. We've never recruited top 15, yet they've won because of the development and that hasn't been happening. Since they've been back they've recruited at least to our norms, and noticeably better in the last few years than we've ever done before, especially at QB with our top 2 guys back to back. The question to your post as to why those guys are playing again leads back to why aren't those much higher ranked kids being developed up to be playing. If a development program doesn't develop, it's going to struggle. Specific looking and a bit into OL. Quickly going back to look. The SRs right now are 4 star Lyles, Beach and Bruss. Some sites probably give the last two guys 3 stars, some 4 stars. But each had major offers like MI, ND type places. Lyles could've gone literally anywhere. Yet the results aren't there right now. The 18 class didn't take OL that year. But 17 ( 5 years, so 4ish) had multiple 4 stars and other borderlines ones too, including OLs i mentioned. 19 was probably their best class ever including a top 5 OL and another high OL. All guys now in their 3rd year already, yet here we are. So 5 years back was very good class probably best we'd ever doen to that point, 4 so so, 3 best probably ever again.
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Bruised post nails it. It's impossible to have a perfect unless you can create each year differently based on how the season went. It's still fair because all know and agreed to the rules going in and, in theory, over time breaks that go against you one year will go in your favor others so it evens out. Yes, RRB. If we're now all so worried about fairness, balancing the finances takes about 1000x more importance than this.
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Yes, that post was totally illogical. The only way to eliminate these type of issues of this nature would be to eliminate divisions and balance schedules. Otherwise there's going to be quirks that come up once in a while, like happened this year. But at that point, then why even have the playoffs, you've determined the best team over 162 already. Skip to the WS like they used to. The same complaint of why does team with this many more wins have to play team with less would apply to a lot of years where a 100ish win team plays a 90ish. I could see something though like if WC1 is say 12 games better than WC2 then the game doesn't need to happen being something added just in case this happens again. But either way, if the WC is 2nd best record are we gonna stomp our feet that it's not fair they have to be the 4 seed instead of a division winner with less, where does it end? Seems to me that BCS system is what we now want for baseball hahaha, I kid. But in reality it was probably the most accurate post season system (maybe NBA) of best team actually winning the title.
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Right, its fair because it's agree upon by everyone going in. Yes, LAD is on the short end of the stick now but they could be benefactors in a different year. In theory, over time that will all balance. Plus, due to being in divisions and schedules not being equal that throws a wrench in basing everything off records vs other divisions or the other league. Take MKE in 2011 with a division of tanking teams in CHC, Hous, Pit just handing them wins. There's countless examples of that over the years as well. Long story, the competition between SF and LAD for the division (and all divisions) are a fair competition with as close to equal schedules as possible (interleague being the only quirk) and LA lost. Plus they lost head to head vs SF. Also, MKE and CHC in 2018 were in the same boat as LAD/SF are now as the two best teams but having to do this play in game then the loser to the WC game. Maybe it happened but I don't recall a mass discussion on how the system needs to end. So, essentially LAD benefitted from this in the other direction just 3 years ago.
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Agree with OSS. My gut when it was announced was against it due to 1 game being kind of against how baseball is, but as its played out I've totally come around to it and think it makes a ton of sense. A very minor addition/tweak that brings way more teams involved to finish the season and making teams play it out for the division. Maybe could tweak something for this situation of WC1 being ahead of WC2 by X amount of game, IDK, but that gets quirky too.
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Yes, good post. my trust is already wavering, but have to resist the urge to overreact.. Since he's been back The O hasn't been anything close to what it was when PC was the OC, and we're at like 6 years now. 2009-11ish offense combined with our current D level is a legit big time contender. Unfortunately back then the D was blah and the reverse has been the case the last several years. Corrections have to made or the rebound similar what you give examples of are less likely to occur. I know I'm beating a dead horse, but I've never seen an explanation as to why it hasn't happened, but putting the old O line coach back in place seems so obvious of a move this offseason.
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Dodgers also lost May to TJ surgery early, Bauer/Kershaw for about half the year. Granted, if Bauer is there maybe Scherzer trade doesn't happen but who knows. Then throw in Seager out along time, Bellinger falling apart, think Betts was out a while too. Don't get me wrong, I don't feel sorry for them, but generally speaking they did have a lot of bad 'luck or breaks' and still won that many games. It's absurd how loaded they are. Generally I'm glad this WC happened to them just to maybe balance the playing field a bit for everyone else.
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Yea I think we all agree it's on the offensive coaches. But, firing the HC any time there is a dip or bad year often isn't the solution and I don't think it should be here too. 2-3 years of it, sure. Unless something really drastic happens this year like not winning another game where it's clear he's lost the locker room. But for a 2nd-3rd tier program you have to understand bad years are going to happen. Adjust, improve, learn from it and try to get better. Mass firings every three years is what leads to being MN and ILL type programs. Go back and look at like 92-2013ish and you'll probably be surprised to see some pretty blah years in there and we didn't fire everyone. In general, stability is crucial for a developmental program like UW or say someone like Iowa.
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Right. previously a complaint would've been it was very common for a low to mid 90s win team to not make the playoffs. I recently went down that rabbit hole talking about Seattle's playoff drought being since their 116 win record year, so question was how did they win 116 and not make the playoffs the next year. Answer was they won 93 games the next two years and it wasn't good enough either time. One year the 2nd place in their division won 99 games. Obviously that's not the only example, but in general those are very good teams not getting a chance. By adding one more in each side it will really help that problem. Trade off is it involves a one game playoff and what happened this year in the NL West. It's basically impossible to have a perfect system if you have to set it before the season, there's no way to change it on the fly based on how the season goes. Can't let 3 in some years, 7 other years. The one game aspect of it makes it tough but going to 3 games (or 6 team with 2 byes) creating long delays for some teams, and expanding to 8 teams seams too big of a stretch too.
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Well, in the old format the Dodgers/Giants wouldn't have really cared the last few weeks as both were in so division didn't really matter. That was one of the problems they were trying to fix, a bunch of years of Sox/Yanks cruising to playoffs but neither caring who won the division. So the format did matter there. In addition, in the old format the race that at least lasted until STL got on fire would've never mattered. All those teams would've been eliminated due to LA/SF being so far in front. Yes, last week it didn't matter but it got about 5 extra weeks of meaningful games for STL, Cin, SD, etc. The AL I guess would've had the same drama even if fighting over one spot instead of two. I guess all I'm saying is, in general, the 5th team being added has been doing exactly what they hoped it would. One can disagree if you personally want that, but MLB did and it's doing what it was designed to do. If they still want that, they shouldn't let one oddball year change it. The NL West situation this year is a huge outlier and will only happen rarely.
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We've won a lot of football games in the last 25 years with some pretty average QB play. Even at times mediocre QB play. We now have a bad QB, because the average/good QB left because he lost his starting gig because of injury. We have a bad OL, a group of average RB's (at a school that specializes in running the ball), and here we are. Who recruited these guys? Who's in charge of the people recruiting these guys? Their recruiting the last 4ish years is the best it's ever been. They're not getting the results out of it though. Something is off in the training/development, schemes, strength/conditioning, etc on the offensive side of the ball. IMO, it all starts with OL. I think I saw a Mich was credited with a pressure on literally every pass attempt on Saturday. Barring something crazy, Chryst won't get fired this year (have to remember the cheapness of UW here and paying him out) but they'll do a massive shake up on offensive side of the ball. Presumably Rudolph will be pushed out. I'd guess they'll save face and not 'fire' him but he'll retire or shift to some administrative role or something.
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Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Matchup Preview
tmwiese55 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Brewers in 6!!, or wait that doesn't work here. Seriously, I'd probably guess MKE. I think they get the first two with Burnes/Wood and then it's just a matter of time after that. Not to say Braves are bad or anything or that I don't think they have very legit shot at winning this. We lose one of the first two games and all of a sudden you're in trouble, nature of the short series. Generally I'd been thinking I preferred ATL over Phi but the more I look at ATL I respect them more. Basically, didn't realize how strong their top two SPs have been. No Wheeler level, but both darn good too. -
To the college talk, yes there are some degrees/tracks that get brought up in these discussions that don't have a clear job or career paths. But you have to remember there is also a ton that are clear: think accounting, business, engineering, medical stuff, teaching, law, computer science, etc. Not everyone is getting art history degrees even though it's easy to crack jokes about. That said, even as UW grad I've been all for the mass pressuring of everyone to go to college is overdone. It's not for everyone and we shouldn't be looking down on folks who don't go that route. There is a serious lack of trade skills due to this, thus a good market to make solid money in the trades which usually only need tech school or on the job learning. Plus there is often a good option there to make it your own business. I fully agree with the couple posts who said the biggest thing I gained from college is exposure to all types of people, really beneficial thing especially to those from rural areas.
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Same, our reputation must be just holding strong. But I get it: Home, need a bounce back badly, blew Mich out the last two years, Mich almost lost to Rut last week, Mich has done poorly in games like this the last few years. ETA: Also, Mich is heavy run team and our run D is one of best Another quirk to it is ND is a dog at home to Cincy. Yes Cincy is legit, but that shows how little they think of ND to make them dogs at home. I haven't looked up an update on Coan's injury though or if the young backup is playing, though I think he's looked good too. Generally speaking I think ND and Mich are being slightly underrated, which is weird since it's usually the opposite. Hopefully 3 days from now I look dumb for saying that.
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Devin Williams to IL with hand injury
tmwiese55 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I agree with this does not make sense He said he had too much to drink at the celebration and something upset him later. For all we know he went home drunk from the celebration and got in a fight with a girlfriend and punched a wall. Or he played a video game raged over something and punched a wall. Or he went on brewerfan.net and saw the complaining raged and punched a wall. Or he stepped on a lego and punched the wall. Or he saw a spider on the wall and tried to punch it. Or he saw the bad guy from WWII as a ghost and tried to punch him but hit the wall. Or he was visited by aliens tried to get away and in a fit of rage he punched the wall. Or he saw bigfoot and bigfoot said he sucked at pitching and then he swung at bigfoot and hit the wall. Or he was playing that boxing game on the Wii and hit the wall. Or he was using a VR headset and lost track where he was and punched the wall. Or he was trying to be like Bruce Lee and punched the wall. Or he was trying out to be in the next Matrix movie and punched the wall. Or he found out his pet is a Cubs fan and punched the wall in frustration. Or he thought the wall was Tony LaRussa and punched it in frustration. Or......... [sarcasm]It was a Sunday, obviously it was fantasy football related[/sarcasm] -
Devin Williams to IL with hand injury
tmwiese55 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I absolutely hope you're right, but considering how the general trend of pitcher usage is going these days, the quality of opponent lineups we are likely to face, the fact that all three top starters are amidst career-highs in innings already, and the fact that CC (like most managers) is likely to have a quicker trigger than normal in the postseason, I think expecting Burnes or Woody, much less Peralta, to suddenly go considerably deeper into games than they usually do is a very optimistic assessment. To be clear, I was eliminating Hader's one inning too. So, only asking 6ish from starter (their normal), 1 Hader, just gotta find 2ish elsewhere. Hopefully on the closer end to two most of the time (again if starters generally do what they've done), especially if Hader grabs and extra out here or there. Starters probably aren't going 6 in the playoffs. - Well I said 'ish'. But yea, if they don't get through 6ish then the starters haven't lived up to their end/expectations and we'd have likely not been able to win regardless of what just happened to Williams, which was the point I was getting at. That said, I'd guess their targets/goals for the starters are ballpark 100 pitches to get 6 innings, unless they do poorly which gets to the point I was making. -
Devin Williams to IL with hand injury
tmwiese55 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I absolutely hope you're right, but considering how the general trend of pitcher usage is going these days, the quality of opponent lineups we are likely to face, the fact that all three top starters are amidst career-highs in innings already, and the fact that CC (like most managers) is likely to have a quicker trigger than normal in the postseason, I think expecting Burnes or Woody, much less Peralta, to suddenly go considerably deeper into games than they usually do is a very optimistic assessment. To be clear, I was eliminating Hader's one inning too. So, only asking 6ish from starter (their normal), 1 Hader, just gotta find 2ish elsewhere. Hopefully on the closer end to two most of the time (again if starters generally do what they've done), especially if Hader grabs and extra out here or there. -
Devin Williams to IL with hand injury
tmwiese55 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Right, with how strong the starting pitching is if they live up to their general expectations we're only needing to cover under 2 innings per game in likely wins. Yea it would be better to have him for one of them. But the other guys have also been very good this year, Box/Cousins/Strickland, so as long as a couple of them get on a heater it can be covered. If offense is more like post Adames and starters do what they did all year, this doesn't change their chances all that much. Who'd have though that in 2018 we'd have been better of Jeffress got hurt beforehand, there's certainly an alternate timeline where Williams happens to be the one who blows a game or two at the wrong time and this prevents it from happening. Mathematically that's less likely than him being a big positive, don't get me wrong there, but baseball is a weird game some times. -
Devin Williams to IL with hand injury
tmwiese55 replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Wow, complete wow. How do you do that with your pitching hand. And it's not like this was a massive surprise or something, division was as good as over for weeks -
Yea if Tampa won't build a new stadium in a good location they should look for a long term solution, not a half one like this. If they were shrewd they'd come up with a western location so someone else gets forced to the AL East. But if a concern is keeping on EST then explore some other cities like maybe Charlotte, Nashville, or whatever is possible..
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I'd probably disagree there with Josephs post. These are the two best recruited QBs they've ever had in Coan and Mertz. One QB a class is common practice and Wolf was offered by OSU and other big programs. Coan under us looked like a good game manager type, on ND he's wizzing the ball around (granted small sample so far). They've also never recruited OL and WR better than they have since these guys have been back. I put this on a training/development problem and/or scheme or play design/calling. To me this all starts with the OL since they've been back not really being close to the OL play when they were here before and the few years afterwards. After this many years if there isn't clear improvement by end of year they have to shake up OC/OL coach. The OL coach that led to those dominant offenses back then is coaching LBs here right now.

