SomewhereInTime

How on earth could FA/WAR be higher in other years than in 2020?

Not sure making the ball more difficult to hit hard is going to help a hitter who already has trouble hitting the ball hard. The idea is that Kolten Wong has been successful despite not hitting many homeruns and if he continues to not hit homeruns he may continue to be successful. On the other hand, power hitters who hit a lot of flyballs will now have more flyouts in place of homeruns.

Wonder how much value that could add to a contact hitter (like say Kolten Wong)

Last time they won the Super Bowl was in a season with no hard cap. I'd bet on them big time for next year if that dream scenario came to be.

I kind of thought the reason for the Optimism Thread was because every other thread on the forum is a pessimism thread.

It's been kind of amazing to watch how much Seattle has mirrored Green Bay. Win the Super Bowl early on with a young QB on a defensive lead team, pay the QB way too much money and watch as that strong defense disintegrates and they're left playing QB ball with a much weaker team around him. They're not terrible by any means, a good QB is certainly helpful, and having a number of playoff runs isn't a bad thing, they're just not winning the Super Bowl.

I wonder why people keep repeating this? From 2000-2021 (I can count this year since neither QB this year is on a rookie contract), the SB winning QB is on a rookie contract 31.8% (7 of 22) of the time. The SB losing QB is on a rookie contract 22.7% (5 of 22) of the time (or 27.3% combined). 6 of the 7 SB winning QBs are probably future HOF QBs (Brady 2x, Rothlisberger, Wilson, E Manning, Mahomes) with Flacco as the other. Of the 5 SB losing QBs, you have Wilson as future HOF probable with McNair, Grossman, Kapernick, and Goff. Best way to win a SB is to have a HOF level QB on a rookie contract. The second best way is to have a HOF level QB. Last year you had the Chiefs with Mahomes, that's one Year before you had Patriots with Brady (see the rest of my post) Year before you had Eagles (although the backup QB actually played in the playoffs, if anything, strengthens my point) Year before you had Patriots with Brady Year before you had Broncos with Manning on his last legs making less than he did earlier in his career and likely hurting more than helping that team to a super bowl run (This one's kind of an outlier but doesn't really point to good QB play leading to a title) Year before was Patriots with Brady Year before was Seattle with rookie contract Wilson (has not won a super bowl since) Year before was Ravens with Flacco (Before he got big payday, never won another after) Year before was Giants with Eli (First legitimate outlier, they were 9-7 though so maybe chalk it up to luck) Year before was Packers with Rodgers before he got paid (And also many forget, due to the labor situation at the time, this was an uncapped year, so I probably shouldn't even count this one) Once you go back much further before this, top draft picks were more of a burden than help with the crazy rookie contracts given out

Yes, you need a solid overall team - Rodgers can't win it all. But if you look at the Super Bowl champions, very rarely is the QB not central to the victory. Of the past 20 years, only a handful of teams had a QB that isn't a legit HOFer (Brady, Rodgers, Roth, Peyton, Mahomes (probably), Warner etc..) or at least was one of the top QBs for that season (Eli, Wilson, Wentz/Foles). Yeah it's just often a whole offense playing well that leads to quarterback numbers looking great. The biggest key to winning Super Bowls is to have a young QB on a rookie contract so you can spend the rest of the money building the great team around him (Or find a Tom Brady who's married to an international supermodel who makes more money than him giving him no desire to be the top paid QB). Another acceptable route is to build the great team and find an end of his career veteran to play QB (like Peyton Manning) but even in that case, they probably would have been better off with just about anyone else playing QB as Manning was completely done at that point.

I don't think enough people realize just how bad the special teams really were. They had a kicker that literally made every single field goal all season including playoffs and yet they still ranked near the bottom in special teams overall. They were the worst team at punt return, likely the worst punt team giving up two touchdowns and a blocked punt this year, terrible on kickoff, kick return, and I can't even remember the last time they blocked a field goal.

It's not all rule changes that have lead to the difference in numbers. A large part of it is much more aggressive play calling and much more advanced play design. Many teams these days will spend the majority of the game in shotgun (GB was over 80% last week) and much of the game will have 3+ true receivers on the field. Go back a few decades and there were a lot more two back sets with the QB under center and only one or two receivers on the field. In recent years coaches have wised up quite a bit too and do a lot less punting. On 4th down from the 50 you're not looking to coffin corner an opponent anymore, you're looking to get a first down.

In time you can look back at those Packers seasons with good memories, just like with the Brewers, but in the moment it's an absolute killer. I will never forget how awful I felt walking out of Miller Park after game 7, but I appreciate the memories and will also never forget how great game 163 at Wrigley was. I'm at least appreciative that we have teams that are this competitive and in the near future one of them will likely break through and win another title. Better to be relevant and come just short of a title than to be like Minnesota or something.

#12 vs #4 is an interesting comparison of players. - Rodgers is the better overall QB. - Favre was the better overall leader - type of person you bust your butt for. - Rodgers plays 3D chess on the field and was better at dissecting the defense. - Favre is out there playing backyard football and was more likeable. That said, once Favre started playing games (I'm going to retire for real this time - TT drafts 2 QB for backups - Oops, I guess I'll play again), I was ready to move on. Both are HOF QBs but really hard to compare them as their styles were completely different. Ironically, I think both were best suited for the era they played in and wouldn't have been as good if they switched spots. But you do have to note that precious few teams have had HOF level QBs (or none?) for 29 consecutive years. Trust me... Viking fans would love to have our problems. Based on what passes as a HOF level QB, there are likely a dozen in the league right now and by no means do you need one of them to win a Super Bowl. You need great players, good players, and above average players starting at many different positions along with good coaching, QB is just one of those positions.

(Not including the 2020's) Did you know that if you start with the 1920's there are only two decades where a Wisconsin major professional sports team hasn't won a title. As much as people like to bring up curses and bad luck, there are many other regions with a far worse current situation and/or sports history (Minnesota).

I mean that depends on how big of a multiple it is and how long the periods of suck are. Would I trade the Packers since '07 with the NY Giants over that time period? No, not in a million years.

It's hard to buy into any "the future is bright" shtick at this point for the franchise. They had a good enough team to get it done this year. They didn't get it done. No guarantee of being back in a conference championship next year, no guarantee of getting HFA at Lambeau, no guarantee of a weak wide open NFC. It's another massive opportunity blown. Agreed. The "future is bright" talk was more relevant six or seven years ago after playoff losses. We have an aging QB nearing the end of his time in GB, a cap situation that will lead to multiple high level players walking in the off season, and a GM who likes to throw draft picks away on longterm projects and positions of no value.

For those of us who weren't alive in '81 or '82, '07 was a particularly agonizing collapse. I might honestly argue '17, '18 just because of how unexpected '17 was, they were supposed to be in the middle of a long rebuild and instead they nearly win the division. I don't think I ever could feel happier about a team that finished one game short of the post season.

2014 was much worse than today and that heartache will never be topped. That and Super Bowl 32 are my two. That was three years after winning a Super Bowl and the Packers were a touchdown underdog on the road to what many considered a better team. It was certainly a huge choke job but given the circumstances, today feels far worse.

Today and game 7 in 2018. The two most devastating losses I've seen in my life. There is no sugar coating it, there is no look at the bright side.

If any of you live around the Fox Valley, try Village Pub Pizza for frozen pizza. They have them in all the supermarkets and some gas stations around here. Ever since I tried one a few years ago I don't think I've ever bought another frozen pizza brand.

That's fair, how about 5 interceptions for each of them, Packers win in a blizzard 6-3?

I only buy them a couple times a year so I just wait til they are super high. This is rational behavior. Under most circumstances, the expected value of a $2 lottery ticket is far less than $2. However, after a jackpot rolls over enough, the expected value of a $2 lottery ticket can become greater than $2. At this point, it becomes prudent to play the lottery. This is why slot machines with progressive jackpots have very large and beautiful casinos and hotels built around them.

I hope they both get hurt in the first quarter and the Packers win 3-0.

I mean, would you also let Linsley walk? You get to a point where you are running out of quality offensive linemen. They've got a really tough question to answer regarding Linsley. On the one hand, he's the best center in the game. On the other, he's going to want to get paid accordingly, and their resources next year are undeniably limited. They have a very capable replacement in Jenkins, but it'll likely depend on how they feel about Patrick/Runyan as their potential guards. Knowing that Bahk is out for probably at least some of 2021 as well makes the choice even more difficult, IMO. No I meant if they didn't sign Bahktiari. I think at this point it's a forgone conclusion that Linsley won't be resigned.

I mean, would you also let Linsley walk? You get to a point where you are running out of quality offensive linemen.

The old fire play on the extra point. That brings back the high school memories!