A Swing and A Drive

Hey, we are all in this together. GO BREWERS!

Didn't realize I was coming off as arrogant. I'll keep that in mind while posting in the future.

I apologize if that offended anyone. No one respects Brewerfan.net posters more than I do. No one. Believe me. Maybe if I phrased it simply as "most posters who believe Braun has a high value" it would be less offensive? Any feedback would be appreciated. Unless it's negative of course. I sincerely hope someone here understands my sense of humor.

Yeah it was more of a hypothetical Braun "value" question than a realistic one for one idea. Personally, I'd value Buehler more than Braun, but I believe most posters here who overvalue Braun would disagree. This might be a more realistic actual offer: OF-Ryan Braun (+8.8) 2B- Scooter Gennett (0?) for OF-Yasiel Puig (+19.43) RHP-Brandon McCarthy (-20) RHP-Walker Buehler (+15.6) I would also accept this trade in a heartbeat. Brewers could flip Puig for something later and maybe even get something for McCarthy in the future by absorbing salary. Unfortuately, I think the "Dodgers interest in Braun" ship has sailed.

I would do this if I were Stearns. Nice work on the player trade values, BTW. A more interesting question if the Dodgers aren't interested in Villar would be... If you are Stearns would you trade, OF-Ryan Braun (+8.8) for RHP-Walker Buehler (+10) ???????????

This is the elephant in the room that Brewer fans simply ignore because of the fact Braun was a key part of the team(s) the ended this franchises 26-year long playoff drought. I get that. However, I think Braun lost a ton of respect and trust around MLB when he didn't take responsibility when caught as a PED user and instead threw the PED sampler delivery guy Dino Laurenzi, Jr under the bus, in attempt to save face. If you were an MLB owner, would you feel comfortable investing Braun's contract commitment/risk to this type of character?

Link http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/

FYI, Fangraphs has the Brewers projected as the worst team in baseball for 2017 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/ To be fair, this projection may have come before the Tommy Milone signing.

FYI, Fangraphs has the Brewers projected as the worst team in baseball for 2017 [urlhttp://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-wins-2017/][/url] To be fair, this projection may have come before the Tommy Milone signing.

The problem is its hard to see Braun's value ever being higher than it is right now over the duration of his contract. Since his value by himself without taking any money on, is pretty much negligible, it leaves the Brewers and GM Stearns in a pickle. 1. Either you trade Braun AND take on money to net a 2nd-tier prospect or two. 2. Or you keep Braun as a middle of the order bat and hope for the best going forward. Concern for the casual fans backlash probably has them leaning toward number 2 at this point if I had to guess. If someone offers a prospect they really like, I think they wouldn't hesitate to move him, however.

Love this guy. Little known fact: Tommy Milone hit a 3-run Home Run on the first pitch of his first MLB at bat!

I guess my definition of an ACE starting pitcher is different than most Brewer fans. Zach Davies doesn't not have the raw "stuff" or talent to be a MLB ace. Pure and simple.

Honestly, the Brewers would be lucky to get one of those level of prospects to headline a Braun trade.

Well everyone on Brewerfan ASSUMED Mat Gamel was going to be the next Ryan Braun, although he never had that kind of talent. That's why teams have scouts. There is not a scout in America that will tell you that Kyle Davies has the talent to be an ACE at the Major League Level, I'm sorry to say.

Trading Villar at peak value would be very smart. Targeting a pitching prospect with #1 starter potential would be huge, especially since we didn't trade for one with Lucroy (Ortiz's ceiling is more mid-rotation) and we won't be getting one for Braun. Great idea. Arcia's ceiling is that of Alcides Escobar, not Francisco Lindor. So Brewers should be open to trading him at peak value as well.

I've been a big fan of his and think he could turn his career around with the right opportunity. Hope this is true.

I assume you are joking. Despite both putting up very good numbers last year, neither Junior Guerra or Kyle Davies is an ACE at the Major League Level. Neither player would even be considered for the Cubs rotation. For example, Jason Hammell was 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA over 166 IP and he was left off the Cubs playoff roster all together.

How do you feel this franchise pitcher or hitter will "arrive on the scene" in the next few years? Via draft or trade I assume? Or are you implying that we may currently have franchise players in our system? I'm just not seeing a franchise level talent currently in our system, especially on the pitching side of things.

That's interesting idea about trading a Competitive Balance pick. However, if you ever played in a fantasy league, you know that owners don't often make trades like that. Owner #1 to Owner #2 "I'll give you my Competitive draft pick and my marginal prospect for your elite prospect?" A classic 2 for 1 trade where our team gets the best player in the deal. These rarely happen. Unless we get lucky and there is a 12 year old GM in the league...

The Brewers have "done their homework" on hitters in past drafts (especially under Jack Z), however, it seems like the Brewers organization is TERRIBLE at scouting, drafting AND developing young pitchers. I mean Ben Sheets was drafted in 1999. I'd say that since Teddy Higuera, Sheets was the ONLY ace level pitcher that we drafted and developed through our system. That means the Brewers have not drafted or developed an ACE in the entire MILLER PARK ERA! Gallardo was drafted in the 2nd round of 2004 draft but I'd argue that he peaked as a #2 starter in reality. That means that in the last 30 years, the Brewers have drafted one ACE and one #2 starter. The current top 4 SP prospects were all acquired via trade. Hader (Astros), Ortiz (Rangers), Bickford (Giants), Diplan (Rangers). Here's hoping Nathan Kirby becomes the next Sonny Gray!

The Brewers have collected some nice talent that could become solid regulars at the MLB level. However, our system currently lacks elite level talent (along the lines of a young Ryan Braun). Brinson has 30-30 all-star type potential but besides him, I don't see that high of ceiling for most other players in our system. Ray, Clark, Phillips and Diaz could all be solid regulars but I doubt they will be stars. Along those same lines, our best pitching prospects, Hader, Ortiz and Bickford, I feel only have the talent to reach a #2 or #3 starter type ceiling. Part of this issue, is that the Brewers didn't finish low enough in the standings to pick high enough to land a generational type talent in the next draft (they pick #9 overall in June) unless they get extremely lucky. Look at the who Cubs were able to land, talent-wise by picking in the top 5 in recent drafts: 2013 #2 overall- 3B Kris Bryant 2014 #4 overall- OF/C Kyle Schwarber That's the elite type of talent the Brewers DESPERATELY need to add to their system and those type rarely get traded. On the positive side, the Cubs themselves were able to add quality players picking #9 in 2011 and 2015. 2011 #9 overall- 3B Javier Baez 2015 #9 overall- OF/2B Ian Happ The Brewers really need to find a way to add a couple franchise building blocks to their farm system, i.e. a FRANCHISE HITTER or a PITCHER WITH AN ACE CEILING. I'm just not seeing that right now, as players that are already in our system. I don't think Ryan Braun's trade value will net us one either....I'm sorry to say. For the Brewers to truly build a World Series contender, I'm afraid we need to finish 2017 and 2018 as one of the worst 5 teams in baseball AND hit on our draft picks.

I get collecting as much "50 grade" talent as we can and hope for a few of them to really pan out(i.e. Lucroy), however, I understand IndyCrew's point that the Brewers need to start adding more elite talent to the farm system. It's time for quality over quantity. The Brewers have collected some nice talent that could become solid regulars at the MLB level. However, our system currently lacks elite level talent (along the lines of a young Ryan Braun). Brinson has 30-30 all-star type potential but besides him, I don't see that high of ceiling for most other players in our system. Ray, Clark, Phillips and Diaz could all be solid regulars but I doubt they will be stars. Along those same lines, our best pitching prospects, Hader, Ortiz and Bickford, I feel only have the talent to reach a #2 or #3 starter type ceiling. Part of this issue, is that the Brewers didn't finish low enough in the standings to pick high enough to land a generational type talent in the next draft (they pick #9 overall in June) unless they get extremely lucky. Look at the who Cubs were able to land, talent-wise by picking in the top 5 in recent drafts: 2013 #2 overall- 3B Kris Bryant 2014 #4 overall- OF/C Kyle Schwarber That's the elite type of talent the Brewers DESPERATELY need to add to their system and those type rarely get traded. On the positive side, the Cubs themselves were able to add quality players picking #9 in 2011 and 2015. 2011 #9 overall- 3B Javier Baez 2015 #9 overall- OF/2B Ian Happ The Brewers really need to find a way to add a couple franchise building blocks to their farm system, i.e. a FRANCHISE HITTER or a PITCHER WITH AN ACE CEILING. I'm just not seeing that right now, as players that are already in our system. I don't think Ryan Braun's trade value will net us one either....I'm sorry to say. For the Brewers to truly build a World Series contender, I'm afraid we need to finish 2017 and 2018 as one of the worst 5 teams in baseball AND hit on our draft picks.

I think you are going to get your wish... However, I just don't see how "franchise icon" Ryan Braun playing out the twilight of his career and retiring as a Brewer helps the Brewers win a World Series.

I understand that maybe no available player fit our roster needs/Stearns liking, however, if there was ever a year that the Brewers could afford to use a full season roster spot on a player that could help in the future, this season would be it! Dang nab it!

Awesome job on this. Great assessment and a real reality check for those wishful thinkers hoping for an "Eaton" type prospect haul. Personally, I lean toward Fangraphs assessment. Braun with his contract, age, etc has little to no trade value in the open market. Then you factor in Braun's no trade list and the reality of it is that there are only the few teams (less then 3 in actuality) that are really in play for Braun this offseason. For those hoping to land a Giolito-type prospect for Braun....sorry but it's not happening. To further use the Eaton deal as a reference point, Brewers could land a Reynaldo Lopez type for Braun IF they take on/eat salary. More likely, the offers straight up for Braun may be in the Dane Dunning prospect range. That's why Stearns likely won't bite and Ryan Braun remains a Brewer.