A Swing and A Drive

Almost every one of the pitchers you listed as Top 16-30 are VERY inconsistent. Quintana is the only one I'd consider to have anywhere near a playoff caliber ACE type track record and he's 28. You pretty much illistrated my point.

To further prove that Starting Pitchers are in the midst of their prime closer to 30 years out I went back 10 years to 2006. Top 13 starting pitchers of 2006 1. Johan Santana, 27 2. Roy Halladay, 29 3. Ben Sheets, 27 4. Randy Johnson, 42 5. Pedro Martinez, 34 6. Jake Peavy, 24 7. Andy Pettite, 33 8. Rich Harden, 23 9. Jason Schmidt, 33 10. King Felix, 20 11. Brandon Webb, 27 12. Mark Prior, 23 13. John Smoltz, 38 The average age came out to 29.2, almost identical to the Top 13 pitchers of 2016.

I don't think the Brewers are going to pass up any opportunities to contend, including if they can continue playing great ball this summer. However, I don't think there is anybody that thinks our rebuilding efforts are complete and it's time to trade in all our chips and go for it this year either. If we have patience and wait for the rebuild to come to full fruition, the fruit it could bear would be the Brewers first ever World Series Championship. If we jump the gun too much, we could risk peaking as simply contenders for the 2nd wild card for a couple of seasons before our window starts to close. There are obviously many variable to all this, but it still is dangerous to start to put the cart before the horse.

Brewers Owner Mark Attanasio is not going to get involved too much with roster management unless finances are involved, IMO. I believe he has as much or more confidence in GM David Stearns as the day he hired him. I don't feel Brewer fans have to worry about him micro-managing the GM position. He's simply not in the position of an owner of an MLB franchise to make a quick buck. I think he's truly in it to win a World Series. I think Brewer fans would be surprised on the low amount of drama that's probably really involved in this. For example, it's not going down like this: Phone rings in David's office... He answers. Mark A: "Great job David, it's May 23rd and the Brewers are in first place." David S: "Thank you, Mark. Very happy about the competitiveness of our team so far this year." Mark A: "Well, there is only one thing left to do?" David S: "What's that?" Mark A: "WIN....THE.....WHOLE....FOCKING...THING!" David S(smiliing): "Umm....I appreciate the enthusiasm but...(dramatic pause)...Mark, you know how when Craig tells Jonathan Villar that if there is nobody out and he isn't 100% sure if he can stretch his in-the-gap double into a triple or not? Yeah, well Craig says that in Jonathan's mind he's not just thinking 3 or considering how many out there are, he ACTUALLY BELIEVES he can score. This is kinda like that, Mark." LOL

Your assessment is correct. Many of the players I listed under Valuable Trade Chips will remain as holdovers and fill in the spots on the major league roster where prospects flamed out or were themselves traded. However, since I didn't want to speculate on which ones Steans would trade/keep, I formated the 2020 lineup with mostly current prospects who I feel have the potential to be MLB starters by then. Free Agent signees and future draftees will also factor in of course. The most exciting part of that grouping, is to consider what MLB ready/extablished players the Brewers could acquire using our potential trade chips. Trying to guess exactly who the Brewers acquire would be a whole other level of guesswork that I'll leave to you fellas. lol

The majority of young starting pitchers struggle with consistency during their first couple of years in the big leagues. (Current example: Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays or Julio Teheran, Braves) The exceptions are a handful of elite ACES. Most starting pitchers require a couple of full MLB seasons of experience before really making strides. Hitters on the other hand can be very productive during their first couple of seasons in the league, still while under team control. The 2008 Milwaukee Brewers were a prime example of this. (Current example: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers) My main point is that the current well-regarded Brewers farm system is top heavy in offensive talent. Similar to how it was in 2006, when the Brewers had the #1 farm system in baseball. 2006 Brewers prospects Note: A young Rickie Weeks and JJ Hardy had just graduated to the majors 1. Prince Fielder, 1B 2. Mark Rogers, RHP 3. Ryan Braun, 3B 4. Yovani Gallardo, RHP 5. Corey Hart, OF 6. Alcides Escobar, SS 7. Dana Eveland, LHP 8. Nelson Cruz, OF 9. Jose Capellan, RHP 10. Will Inman, RHP Also in top 20 Hitters OF Michael Brantley, OF Lorenzo Cain Pitchers LHP Zack Jackson, LHP Manny Parra, RHP Ben Hendrickson, RHP Dennis Sarfarte, RHP Tim Dillard Out of that farm system, it produced many productive young hitters (Fielder, Braun, Hart, Escobar, Cruz, Brantley, Cain plus Weeks and Hardy) and only one somewhat productive young pitcher (Yovani Gallardo) plus one comedian, lol (Tim Dillard) Yovani never developed into a true TOR starter like he seemed he would either. I'd say he peaked at a #2 for us, arguably only a playoff caliber #3 Eveland and Parra contributed somewhat but the rest of the pitchers were complete busts. Regardless, that 2006 farm system afforded the Brewers about a 5-year window of true competitiveness (2008-2012). This gives us great hope for the 2019-2023 seasons. The invention of the 2nd wild card gives us an even a bigger window, I hope. I will argue that not even our top prospect Brinson, has the franchise player ceiling that Braun and Fielder had. In fact, I think Braun, Fielder, and Gallardo were better prospects than anyone on our current list. This concerns me. I suppose the main point of my post, however, is we can't expect many of our young pitching prospects to even reach their ceilings. Instead, the Brewers at some point in the next couple of seasons, I feel, will need to acquire established, top of the rotation quality starting pitching. With all due respect to Junior Guerra, we simply don't have that right now. I'd even argue that 2006 Yovani had a higher ceiling than any current pitcher in the Brewers system. Hopefully, a trade or the next couple drafts change that.

I disagree with your first two points. I do agree that there is no one right path. However, given the state of the Brewers current MLB team and farm system, I believe it is the path they are on. 2016 Top SP with Ages 1. Clayton Kershaw, 29 2. Max Scherzer, 32 3. Madison Bumgarner, 27 4. Noah Syndergard, 24 5. Corey Kluber, 30 6. Chris Sale, 27 7. Jon Lester, 33 8. Johnny Cueto, 31 9. Yu Darvish, 30 10. Jake Arrieta, 31 11. Jacob deGrom, 28 12. Justin Verlander, 34 13. Cole Hamels, 33 That's an average age of 29.9 years old, with Noah Syndergaard the only player younger than 27.

I agree that Taylor Jungmann is a wildcard. He'll be 30 by 2020 and I would be happen if the Brewers simply just got ANYTHING of value for him at this point. I did include the ENTIRE 2017 Brewers starting rotation under the "trade chip" section. This was not a mistake. I'm just not seeing it with this group, when it comes to playoff caliber talent. I could very well be wrong and possibly a couple of these guys remain with the team and contribute in 2020. Personally, I like Davies the best out of the group to stabilize as at least a nice #5 MLB starter.

Thanks. Fixed. Somewhat surprised Brandon will ONLY be 38 in 2020. Honestly, will be surprised if he's still in baseball. lol And I agree the Hader's floor is worse than Andrew Miller-lite but I have confidence that he's a future big league contributor. Personally, I think if the Brewers Front Office thinks they can contend any sooner than 2019, then I believe they could risk jeopardizing seeing the plan for a FULL REBUILD bear fruit.

Teams simply cannot win a World Series without top level MLB starting pitching, IMHO. It also takes most pitchers until they are close to 30 years old to reach their prime, while most hitters reach their prime around age 27. That translates to pitchers not being truly great, 200+IP ACES until AFTER they are no longer controlled by small market teams like the Brewers. The formula for a winning recipe is to load up on young, cheap hitting prospects and pair that will a couple of TOP OF THE ROTATION type veteran starters. If a small market team like the Brewers doesn't want to risk a long term deal on a great Free Agent pitcher or that pitcher simply doesn't want to sign with a small market, hitter friendly Milwaukee team, then when the time is right I think Stearns will need to do what Melvin did in 2008 and 2011 and trade prospects for an elite starting pitcher rental or two, like Sabathia and Greinke. The key to success is for the Brewers to at least find and develop a couple of young pitchers that can show value as #3-#5 starters. For example a year 2020 contending Brewers club should look something like this: (I included their age as of opening day 2020) YOUR 2020 MILWAUKEE BREWERS! C Jett Bandy (30) /Andrew Susac (30) *fun fact: Bandy and Susac were born 4 days apart 1B Eric Thames (34) *$7.5M option year 2B Isan Diaz (23) 3B Lucas Erceg (24) SS Orlando Arcia (25) LF Brett Phillips (25) CF Lewis Brinson (25) RF Corey Ray (25) Bench CI Jake Gatewood (24) MI Mauricio Dubon (25) OF Trent Clark (23) OF Ryan Cordell (28) Other prospect hitters who could emerge: 3B Gilbert Lara (22), OF Monte Harrison (24), OF Demi Orimoloye (23), C/1B Josh Nottingham (25), C Mario Feliciano (21), OF Clint Coulter (26), 3B Chad McClanahan (22) SP1 PLAYOFF CALIBER ACE SP2 ACE#2 or Veteran#2 playoff caliber starter SP3 LHP Josh Hader (26) SP4 RHP Luis Ortiz (24) SP5 ONE (1) of the following needs to emerge: RHP Brandon Woodruff (27), RHP Marcos Diplan (23), RHP Corbin Burnes (25), RHP Cody Ponce (25), RHP Jorge Lopez (27) LHP Nathan Kirby (24), LHP Kodi Medeiros (23), RHP Phil Bickford (24), RHP Josh Pennington(24), RHP Devin Williams (25), RHP Taylor Williams (28) Long Reliever: Someone from the group above Middle: RHP Freddy Peralta (23) Middle: RHP Trey Supak (23) Setup: Veteran Lefty Setup: RHP Jacob Barnes (29) CLOSER: RHP Corey Knebel (28) Valuable 2017-2020 Trade Chips SS/2B Jonathan Villar 3B Travis Shaw OF Domingo Santana OF Keon Broxton OF Ryan Braun C Manny Pina RHP Junior Guerra RHP Zach Davies RHP Jimmy Nelson RHP Matt Garza RHP Willy Peralta Any bullpen arm that a contender will overpay for. Also, any player that is drafted from College by the Brew Crew over the next couple of drafts will factor into this mix as well. Big hopes for the Brewers hitting the jackpot with the #9 overall pick this June. Points of Discussion: Your first reaction to this is probably that more of the Brewers pitching prospects will emerge. I beg to differ. The attrition rate on young minor league pitchers is very high. Also, Hader and Ortiz are no sure things themselves. So in my evaluation, I'll assume with to replace whichever of those fail, others will emerge. I'm simply not counting on very many starting pitchers from the Brewers current farm system to emerge as reliable starters on a championship caliber team. I feel it would be unwise to think otherwise, and to feel lucky if I am proven wrong. The keys for this all to come together: 1. The Brewers MUST hit on their high draft picks over the next couple of seasons. Personally, I believe we need to find another pitcher with a similar ceiling as Josh Hader (at least a #3), in case Hader's control issues moves him to the bullpen. Worst case IMO: He's Andrew Miller-lite. Drafting a franchise-type middle of the order hitter would also be a welcome addition. 2. Stearns needs to package numerous players listed under VALUABLE 2017-2020 TRADE CHIPS at peak value and somehow turn them into Top of the Rotation Starting Pitching before the 2020 season. The players from this group that Stearns DOES NOT trade will hopefully remain key contributors to cover for any "failed" prospects my 2020 evaluation is counting on. 3. Depending on how things break, this timetable could move up a year to 2019, or move back a year until 2021. Fans hoping it comes together much sooner I think are setting the Brewers up for the FULL re-build not to come to completion. Simply look over the players ages for the 2020 season I have listed. The exciting part is that if it is done correctly, the Brewers will be set up to contend from 2020-2022 at the minimum. I believe this is David Stearns goal and I have faith in him to stick to the plan. This should also nicely work out to be the same timeframe where the Cubs prime window of dominance will be starting to close. The wait will be worth it. GO BREWERS! Please share your thoughts on this.

You definitely need to check out SING STREET. It's written and directed by the same person who did BEGIN AGAIN.... John Carney.

I respectfully disagree that the Brewers are a clone of the Dbacks. 1. Zack Greinke is a Top of the Rotation Starter. The Brewers don't have a SP with his talent. Heck, I'd argue the Brewers don't even have a SP with the talent of a Taijuan Walker. 2. Paul Goldschmidt is one of the Top 5 players in baseball. 3. The Dbacks are not at the stage of a re-build the Brewers are. With Goldy's contract expiring at the end of 2019, the D-backs are likely in a window of contention between now and then. I agree that both teams offensives are filled with underrated players from top to bottom. I think the pitching clearly separate the D-backs however.

I think Knebel solidifying the closer spot could translate into a couple of extra wins for the Brewers this summer. I think a 36% chance at the playoffs is too optimistic. If you split the difference between Fangraphs and BP it gives Brewers a 23% chance which is maybe more realistic. 2017 NL Playoffs 5 teams (3 division winners and 2 wild cards) Nationals Cubs Dodgers I think these 3 are shoe-ins even if they don't all win their divisions. That leaves 2 spots up for grabs NL EAST It's hard to see any team in the NL East challenging for one of those other spots although I'll say that the Mets or Marlins have potential still. NL WEST I think at least one if not two of the open spots will go to teams in this division. I think one of Rockies or Dbacks will make the playoffs as the first Wild Card Giants will still be a factor if they can hang around until Bumgarner returns. NL Central Cardinals will continue to compete for a playoff spot all year. Brewers and Pirates can hang in it if their pitching can hold up. So here's how I'd rank the "contenders" for the last (2nd Wild Card) NL playoff spot: 1. Rockies/Dbacks (which ever isn't the first WC) 2. Cardinals 3. Mets 4. Pirates 5. Brewers 6. Marlins 7. Giants So that's 7 teams fighting for the last Wild Card with the Brewers somewhere in the middle of that pack. By MLB adding the 2nd wild card, it gives the fans of teams 3-7 on this list a ray of hope until AT LEAST sometime in August. If anyone was against adding a 2nd Wild Card in the past, I hope this convinces them that it's ultimately good for baseball.

This sounds like a feasible plan, but I still think other contending teams like the Astros, Yankees or Cubs would beat our offer for Quintana by a fair amount.

Nice post. This sums it up perfectly. You just made the previous pages of this thread a moot point. lol This is without even bringing up the fact of Braun's now FULL trade veto power and a near non-existent trade market. It's simple to see why Braun is still a Brewer. On the bright side, when healthy, Braun is still producing at a high level and earning his contract. It's not like the Brewers are stuck with a Ryan Howard-type albatross contract/no production type situation that is impeding our rebuild. The only thing Braun's presence is impeding may be player development at some point, but for now the Brewers are playing some nice baseball as the weather is heating up. Braun's bat remaining in the lineup also has a ripple effect on the batters hitting in the potent Brewers lineup around him, thus increasing their production and value to the organization. Brewer fans can maybe stop focusing on what we can "get" for Braun, and perhaps discuss other potential trade chips like Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Junior Guerra, and of course the great Eric Sogard!

Even if their salaries were the same, no one in baseball would take Braun/Thames over Bellinger/Urias. Age alone. Braun and Thames are on the verge of exiting their prime years, while Bellinger/Urias are yet on the cusp of entering theirs.

If you've seen Bellinger play, it's fairly obvious that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 players in baseball. I firmly believe that he'll be an annual future MVP candidate.

I agree that Dodgers trade proposal would only make sense for teams in fantasy or video game baseball. In real life baseball, Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias might be two of the most "untouchable" young players in the game when it comes to trades at this point. Doubt either are going to be traded. It is frustrating knowing that the Dodgers have all the money in the world....plus two 20 year old franchise players while the Brewers currently have none.

I guess Mike Minor would make sense for a bullpen lefty rental. The Royals will definitely be sellers come July. I just wouldn't give up much to get him I suppose.

Interesting "buy low" type target the Brewers should be considering. However, I'm just not convinced that Minor is an upgrade over anyone in our current rotation, let alone adding him to block innings from some of our AAA starters that are ready. He reminds me of Brandy Beachy and would have made some sense where the Brewers where at rebuilding stage a year ago. I don't expect much of anything out of him anymore and feel he's at the crossroads of his career. I'm not sure I'd even pluck him of the waiver wire to be honest. In a similar vein, I think the Brewers are a year or even two early on going after a controllable pitcher like Quintana. Just not the right time yet, IMO.

You are over valuing Gray by a lot. The A's will be lucky to get 1 top 100 for Gray let alone multiple top 20's in an organization. Gray has about the same value as Nelson does. Nelson has nowhere near the value of Sonny Gray. The difference in talent between these two is pretty sizable. I think this will be proven if Sonny is traded before the deadline this year, like I believe he will. The return will be significant. I'm not even sure the Brewers will get any trade interest in Jimmy Nelson, to be honest. Hopefully he has a wonderful rest of this season and I'm proven wrong. But I'm sure if that's the case, the Brewers may lean on keeping him anyway.

I agree that's about the level it would take to land Jose Quintana. I'm pretty sure another contending club could and would beat that package with prospects that are closer to the majors even. My guess is that's closer to what the A's may get/take for Sonny Gray. Gray is only controllable through 2019 and has more question marks than Quintana at this point however.

Let's get the band back together. To all those fans that are too nostalgic to move on from Ryan Braun, this makes a ton of sense.

In honor of former Brewer and cinephile, John Axford, I thought I would start a general thread of "Must-see" Movies. SING STREET https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/sing_street This one somehow wasn't a box office hit and is already available for streaming on Netflix. Here's my take on it... An inspiring, charming romp of a movie, SING STREET shows us how the optimistic, passionate, romanticism of youth has the power to drown out of all the negativity, insecurity and doubt that life can dish out, and turn it into beautiful music. Pure movie magic and my favorite film so far this century. A must-see for anyone who loves music or the 1980s. And it's NOT a musical BTW. LA LA LAND couldn't hold this movie's jock strap. Would love to hear others thoughts on this hidden gem as well as their "must-see" recommendations.

I'm not sure how many Brewer fans realize this, but the majority of the Miller Park concession stands are run by volunteers of non-profit organizations as a way to fund raise. These volunteers work their butts off for minimal compensation for their efforts on behalf of these organizations. I have volunteered as part of a fundraising effort in the past. It's one step up from a living hell. After the experience, I would never eat any food product sold from a concession stand at Miller Park ever again. The Brewers PR can try to spin this as a way that they are helping these Non-Profits fund raise. Fans may think that by supporting these concession stands by purchasing overpriced, low quality food at the ballpark they are supporting a good cause. Don't be fooled, by purchasing any food from a concession at Miller Park, you are basically supporting this racket that the Brewers have going that is one step above slave labor.