A Swing and A Drive

That's why Ryan Braun will not be traded.

It's inspiring how Brewer fans are so optimistic and love taking "the glass is half FULL!" approach to evaluating our players and trade assets. As far as Garza goes, not only is the glass half empty, but there is a leak in the glass and it's draining fast. I'd do a back-flip if a team gave ANYTHING of value for the water that's left in THAT glass.

Signing Thames for 3 years to man 1B is a real head-scratcher when in all likelihood we will be stuck with Braun and it would make a lot of sense to move him there within the next year or so.

Teams not on Braun's no trade list: Dodgers Giants Padres Diamondbacks Marlins Angels The Marlins and Angels have terrible farm systems. Dbacks have too many OF of their own. Padres are rebuilding. That leaves the Dodgers and Giants as possible trade partners NO WAY the Giants give up their Top 3 prospects for Braun. Our best chance at moving Braun is still the Dodgers and they have all the leverage now. They will not be giving up Bellinger or De Leon in a deal for him at this point. I think it's VERY likely that Braun will remain a Brewer going forward. If Sterns is motivated to move him now, I think he'll have to eat some of Braun's salary/take on unwanted contracts to even get 2nd-tier prospects back in return for him. Here is a couple of realistic trade offers that Sterns may receive: Offer #1 BREWERS GET: OF Yasiel Puig (17:$6.5M, 18:$7.5M) RHP Brandon McCarthy (17:$10M, 18:$10M) LHP Alex Wood (Arb Eligible) RHP Brock Stewart (Prospect) DODGERS GET: OF Ryan Braun (17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)) Offer #2 BREWERS GET: RHP Matt Cain (17:$20M, 18:$21M club option ($7.5M buyout)) or we kick in a similar amount of $$$ toward Braun's contract. RHP Tyler Beede (Prospect) OF Austin Slater (Prospect) GIANTS GET: OF Ryan Braun (17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)) If either team is interested in Thornburg, sure, that would increase the prospect return quite a bit, but there are nice bullpen arms with more experience then Tyler on the open market this offseason that wouldn't require giving up top farmhands, so that scenario is unlikely IMHO.

I have a report of things I just made up also. Report: Ryan Braun won't be traded this offseason.

The Dodgers are NOT going to be trading Yadier Alvarez anytime soon. His upside is huge and they have way too much invested in him to move him at his current value. I think there is maybe a 5% chance we could pry De Leon from them, but it would mean taking on Ethier instead of Puig in a deal. One thing is clear. The time to trade Braun is now. His value will never be higher. It is currently just north of zero. The only way we get a elite prospect for Braun is if they take on a bunch of dead money (i.e. Ethier AND McCarthy) in order to offset Braun's contract, thus giving him value. The more they take on, the more they get for him. My belief, is that Sterns is intrigued by Puig's potential ceiling and would like to acquire him, if only to trade him in a year or so for a massive haul (after an all-star caliber season). It's a gamble. But Sterns believes it's better to gamble on someone entering their prime, instead of someone exiting their prime. Personally, I would rather the Brewers pass on Puig and his issues. I also don't want to be stuck with Ethier, blocking youngsters development going forward with a negative valued contract. Ideally, if Puig is taken out of any potential deal, they COULD land someone like De Leon, but my guess is they would just take on McCarthy and target prospect depth. Dodgers get: OF Ryan Braun ('17=$19M, '18=$19,'19=$18M,'20=$16,'21=$15 Mutual option/$4 buyout) Brewers get: RHP Brandon McCarthy ('17=$10M, '18=$10M, '19= $8M option) RHP Walker Buehler(#7 Mlb.com prospect rank) SS Gavin Lux (#9) RHP Brock Stewart (#14) RHP Chase De Jong (#17) If Sterns really wants Puig, put him back in the deal and take out Stewart and Lux.

Bottom line is that Braun will not likely be part of the Brewers by the time they are serious contenders again. It makes little to no sense to keep him. The trick will be to trade him at maximum value. Although Braun and his current situation (contract, age, etc) doesn't have a lot of trade value, it is true that he does still have "positive" trade value. The risk of him crossing the line into him and his contract having "negative" trade value is a fine one. It would take just one injury or one even half season of a decline in production and his value would flip from positive to negative and the Brewers would be likely stuck with him until his contract runs out. I feel Braun himself, realizes that it would be a good time to be traded to a contender that he can help. It makes a ton of sense to trade him this offseason. It has also been made clear that not many teams besides the Dodgers make a fit as an offseason trade partner. The Brewers have to hope the Dodgers remain interested or it could be an opportunity lost, as far as using Braun as a trade chip to help the rebuild, instead of as a mentor.

Still a prospect... Ceiling= Bob Uecker Floor= Bob Brainerd

I'd love to see the Brewers get creative with the Dodgers and obtain De Leon and Bellinger. This competitive window could open up sooner if we do. Dodgers Get: -Ryan Braun -Scooter Gennett -Lottery Ticket (Trey Supak/Brandon Woodruff ect...) Brewers Get: Yasiel Puig Brandon McCarthy Jose De Leon Cody Bellinger I would even consider two lottery picks if those two prospects were coming back to Milwaukee. I get it that I'm posting on a Brewers "fan" forum, but this is vastly over valuing Braun and Scooter. However, Brandon Woodruff has turned himself into a borderline Top 100-200 MLB prospect so I'd consider him more than a lottery ticket. But again, the Dodgers will hold all the leverage in a trade for Braun, so they simply won't have to give up their top prospect in a deal for him, let alone their top two. I do agree with Splitter above stating that the Dodgers have some outstanding prospects in their 5-20 organizational rankings. As a Brewer fan, I'm not focusing so much on De Leon or Bellinger, but am excited with the possibility of Sterns getting and hitting on a couple of these "2nd tier" prospects in their organization in a proposed Dodgers deal. RHPs Walker Buehler and Brock Stewart are two arms I very much like, personally.

Makes sense. Nice work.

I think it would be a good idea to "sell high" on Keon Broxton if at all possible. Also a LOL on Andrew Susac "not going anywhere". and also Jorge Lopez. Both those guys are replacement level type players.

Brew4U...You claim Braun is such a great player with an under market value contract. Then you claim teams wouldn't claim him and risk having being "on the hook" for his $80 mil with "no real reason to have him on their teams." This is a contradiction. If Braun had trade value, why wouldn't they want him? By your view, they could simply trade him for a valuable (prospect) return. Makes no sense. On top of that, you are advocating that the Brewers are better off keeping Braun and remain "on the hook" for his $80 mil, even though other clubs really have "no reason to have him on their teams." Some flawed logic there.

I agree with Nyjer Morgan. Puig has some value and is not dead weight. He also could help lead the Dodgers deep into playoffs this season, increasing his value. But like Braun, Puig with his contract/issues has little to no real trade value right now. And a contending team like the Dodgers don't want to deal with his issues, where a rebuilding team like the Brewers could afford to do that until he increases his on-field value. If the Brewers acquire him, I'd expect them to deal him within a year but there is some risk involved that they would be stuck with him and his contract. But keeping Braun and his contract carries similar risk. Braun's current production/future risk make more sense for a contending team. Puig's current risk/future possibility of production make more sense for a rebuilding team. It's really as simple as that.

You are missing the point Splitter. Ryan Braun will not bring back a prospect currently rated higher than RHP Phil Bickford, even if they take on Puig and McCarthy. If, on top of taking on those two, the Brewers agreed to pay all $18 million of Braun's defered money, then maybe the Dodgers would part with a Top 50 elite prospect in a Braun deal. However, the Dodgers have all the money in the world to work with and would likely rather pay the $18M themselves and keep the better prospects instead. Splitter does make a good point that no other team matches up well with the Brewers on a Braun trade, therefore, giving the Dodgers most of the leverage in negotiations. And they will have even more leverage in the offseason then they did at this deadline. The Brewers leverage would be that they could simply keep Braun. This would not mean much to the Dodgers, because they could simply turn elsewhere, and would have the entire offseason to do it.

From the same article as the above post: "Ah. If the Brewers want nothing but prospects for Braun, they’re not going to get them from the Giants, at least not top quality ones." So basically, middle reliever Will Smith had FAR more trade value than Braun currently does. Understandably hard for Brewer fans to accept regarding their "franchise" player's actual trade value, but none-the-less true.

This is dead on. Braun with his "fair market" contract/length is of interest to other teams. However, his current value with his contract/length to other teams is not that of an elite type prospect(s). Clubs have the option to keep their elite type prospects and simply sign a similar free agent. Even if they have to pay above market contract/length for the free agent, they may be willing to do that rather than give up cost-controlled elite type prospect(s). Here's the deal...The more of Braun's contract that is offset by players coming back in a potential deal (unwanted-i.e. Puig or slightly bad contract-i.e.McCarthy), the more the Brewers could get in prospect value included. With that said, even with BOTH Puig and McCarthy coming to us in the almost completed Dodgers deal, I'm willing to bet that Braun's value STILL doesn't net us an elite type prospect (an organizational top 3 prospect- i.e. De Leon, Alvarez or Bellinger). Instead, I would guess that Sterns would be able to net us a couple of 2nd-tier type prospects (organizational top 20 prospects- i.e. Buehler, Stewart, Adullah, De Jong, etc.) I still think this is would be a good return for Braun, as Puig could have a breakout-type season as a Brewer in 2017 or 2018 and bring a substantial return on his own. Additionally, McCarthy's contract is also "fair market" value if he can remain healthy, and also bring back a decent future trade return. The sheer quantity of prospects the Brewers could net in this type of deal over time, leads me to believe this is the type of deal a rebuilding club should consider doing. Also, Top prospect lists be damned, it's all guesswork. MLB Prospects "stock" goes up and down all the time. I'd actually prefer acquiring a player like RHP Walker Buehler, who has as much upside as someone like RHP Jose De Leon, and he better fits our next contending window, IMO.

You are delusional if you think Ryan Braun and his contract will be bringing back top quality pitching. Yea, because guys that OPS .914 grow on trees. And, as others have walked through in great detail, his contract is very reasonable. It would be a lot for the Dodgers to take on, which means the Brewers may need to take on a salary dump player like McCarthy from the Dodgers to make room. Once that is resolved, now you're just talking about value. And Ryan Braun is worth a top pitching prospect any way you slice it. Actually they would need to take on McCarthy AND Yasiel Puig (baggage and contract, which any team could have claimed off waivers BTW) just to land a couple of mid-level prospects. If the Brewers could have traded Braun by himself for a top pitching prospect at any point this season, they would have done it in a heartbeat. None was offered. Hence, Braun is still a Brewer. Which makes all the Brewer fans that overrate him happy, it seems.

You are delusional if you think Ryan Braun and his contract will be bringing back top quality pitching.

If indeed the Brewers are willing to take on Puig AND McCarthy, I feel they could get a decent prospect or two added but NOT De Leon, Alvarez or Bellinger. I would guess something like this... Dodgers get: OF Ryan Braun ('17=$19M, '18=$19,'19=$18M,'20=$16,'21=$15 Mutual option/$4 buyout) RP Carlos Torres ('17=ARB, '18=ARB) Brewers get: OF Yasiel Puig ('17=$6.5M, '18=$7.5M, '19=ARB) SP Brandon McCarthy ('17=$10M, '18=$10M, '19= $8M option) and two prospects (MLB.com rank) SP Walker Buehler(#7) or SP Brock Stewart (#14) SP Imani Adullah(#16) or SP Chase De Jong (#17) Both Puig and Braun come with baggage and considerable risk. However, Puig is more likely to INCREASE his trade value than Braun because of his age/upside. Braun is the better current player and one a contender like the Dodgers would rather have. Deal makes sense for both sides, really. However, the Dodgers will have more leverage than the Brewers in the offseason and many more trade partners/options than they did at this deadline. It could be an opportunity missed.

How do you figure? Haniger has a minor league career OPS of .860 and Cordell's OPS is .798. Cordell may have more speed and a better defensive profile but Haniger is the far superior hitter. Cordell's upside IS Haniger IMO. Possible solid regular.

And that's a recipe for disaster. When you focus on a position, you're not getting the best talent. If the Indians trade went through, you would have your top catching prospect. Fortunately, they made a better trade. Two OF came back, but the overall talent recvd back is superior to the (almost) Indians trade. They are in no danger of not having enough positions for top OF to play in the minors. I really can't see who is going to be riding the pines. I also don't see anyone who is blocked from moving up. Nothing wrong at all with continuing to acquire the best talent possible. Once they are competitive again and need a position to fill, they will have a ton of money to spend and can easily add a player via FA or trade. Good points on just targeting the top talent at this point of the rebuild and not worrying too much about positions. With that said....pitching, pitching and more pitching. You can never have enough. It is SO much easier to fill an open OF spot on your roster via free agency/waiver wire, than it is to find quality pitching. The Brewers have be terrible at drafting and developing 1-3 type starters for the last 30+ season. This needs to change.

I think that is kind of asking a lot.

This makes zero sense. Braun and Tulowitski's contracts are nearly identical. Also failed to mention that the Rockies had to TAKE ON a huge contract from Jose Reyes to even be able to part with Tulo. The Brewers will need to do the same or else Braun has no trade value.

People are forgetting that in order for the Rockies to get a top 100 prospect for Tulowitski, they had to take on Jose Reyes bad contract. Rockies got: SP Jeff Hoffman (top 100 prospect) RP Miguel Castro (org top 10 prospect) SP Jesus Tinoco (lottery ticket who currently has an ERA over 7.00 in single A) SS Jose Reyes (HUGE salary dump) Blue Jays got: SS Troy Tulowitski RP LaTroy Hawkins Add that to the fact that Tulowitski plays a premium position and Braun does not. So if the Brewers expect to get any decent prospects from the Dodgers in a Braun deal, they would need to take on a salary dump or sent along a significant amount of money.

And he's banking on the biggest cash cow of them all.