ZBTMP

Neil Walker has averaged 2.8 WAR over the last 5 seasons and never less than 2.4 WAR. Scooter has been worth 2.0, 1.7, 0.2, and so far 0.6 WAR from 2013-2016. Their values don't compare. Which team is really going to pay for the upgrade that Scooter represents? The Brewers would do well to get one of the 3 players the got for Lind if they moved Scooter, IMO. I don't see a team looking at Scooter as a first division regular or any kind of longterm solution in the same way I don't. He isnt a useful bench bat to a contender as he offers little versatility. The best is to find a team that is struck by injuries or underperformance at the position.

I'm not quite understanding the weird precedent that Arcia needs to "earn" it. It seems to have something to do with his status as top prospect. Rivera put up a 48 wRC+ in AAA but I don't remember anyone arguing about him not earning his September call-up last season. The only question that matters is when do the Brewers feel it is best for the long term development of Arcia to challenge and motivate him by facing big league pitching. I guess that time is now.

1) Arcia- The AAA line is disappointing after a 126 wRC in Biloxi, but I haven’t given up on his offensive upside yet 2) Hader- 3 awful starts so far in AAA are tough to regress his overall line. Would be fun to give him a look in September 3) Brinson- If the Brewers are going to be competitive in the next half decade, it’ll be based on pitching and defense. 4) Woodruff- Woodruff’s July (42:5 K:BB, 1 ER) was probably the most dominating month a prospect has had since Ben Sheets beat the commies? Maybe Will Inman had a month as good too. 5) Phillips- He’s been relatively healthy and showing more power than in the past. Focusing on the positives here. 6) L. Ortiz- There is no such thing as a safe pitching prospect, but Ortiz seems like a good bet for mid-rotation starter 7) Clark-Strikeouts are somewhat discouraging and leading to an ugly BA, but he is still quite a bit above league average offensively. A strong finish would be nice. 8) Ray- Not panicking yet, but I’d be more excited if he was tearing the cover off the baseball. 9) Bickford- Velocity reports concern me, but he is still statistically dominating. 10) Ponce- Wonder if he will get a trip to the AFL after missing the start of the season 11) I. Diaz- Would prefer he be more hot, less cold, but he seems to have the skill set to be an everyday player 12) Diplan- Would have preferred he stayed in A ball to hack away at that walk rate 13) Lopez- He looked good in spring training so I’m not conceding he is lost yet. In fact, I’d have called him up to Milwaukee and let him work out of the big league bullpen in an attempt to simplify the game, boost his confidence and re-sharpen his stuff. Then if it works move him back to the rotation next spring. 14) D. Williams- He is 5-0 with a 2.31 ERA over his last 8 appearances. I’d bump him up to Brevard personally. Needs to get the walks under control. 15) Nottingham- Where the heck did the power go? Looked good in spring training, but doubting eh can stick behind the plate 16) Erceg- He must be hitting the ball hard to maintain the kind of BABIP he is, but would like to see him against more advanced pitching and defense 17) Medeiros- Can’t teach his breaking ball, but seems to have completely lost the strike zone. Still young enough to figure it out, but will need to show some improvement at some point 18) Reed- Still no power, and rising K rate has caused him to drop. But he still hasn’t lost his patient approach 19) Harrison- Reported looked great in spring training, but these injuries aren’t helping him get in much needed development time 20) Webb- STRIKEOUTS! Really like this pick. 21) Peralta- A great run in Wisconsin. With Missaki disappearing off the face of the earth and Herrera struggling early in AZL, he is the early gem of the Lind trade 22) Burnes- Encouraging start to his professional career. 97 on the gun is nice. 23) Kirby- I don’t know if there is a more equitable way to distribute comp balance picks than a lottery, but I’d like something that gives the Brewers more of an edge…. Or sharing of local TV revenue 24) M. Diaz- Looks like he is destined for reliever, but he has enough stuff that he could take off 25) Yamamoto- A rough close to July, but he has swing and miss stuff with enough control to stick in the rotation.

I personally think Braun will clear. A team doesn't want to get their bluff called and be saddled with 80 million unexpectedly. It seems like there used to be more of a gentlemen's agreement to let non-obvious players slide through, but that doesn't seem to be the case as much anymore.

Can we push back the fences so we can take advantage of all centerfielders?

Lucroy had a .631 OPS at the break last season. I doubt the return would have been substantially better but we'll see.

he's never really hit. This isn't exactly true. Reports were he led instructionals in batting average after signing in 2014. That would seem to have made the organizational set him up for a more aggressive developmental path than they should have. Why should Lara have gone through a different promotion path than Joantgel Segovia who's hit at every stop along the way? Why should signing bonus, draft position, or talent matter? The Brewers have what? 200 players throughout the organization? The Brewers have limited resources and limited opportunities. While it'd be fantastic for everyone to get the maximum opportunity to become the best baseball player they can, every sports organization is going to give more focus and opportunities to those who they think will give them the biggest potential. At the end of the day if the Brewers think there is a 35% chance that Lara becomes an impact player and a 10% chance Segovia becomes an impact player, they need to account for that in their development path in order to maximize the resources and opportunities they have. What's the point of dropping players into the deep end over their head if they aren't good swimmers? I can't say your wrong on Gilbert Lara and Kodi Medeiros. Clearly they aren't developing ideally at the levels they are at. I will say though that its not a given that the assignment is the root cause of the problem. Putting Lara in the best offensive league in professional baseball and Medeiros in the best pitching environment in professional baseball doesn't scream too aggressive. They may be having the same problems in the DSL and MWL even though the level is lower on the developmental rung. I'm struggling to see the PR aspect of it. The portion of fans who care about minor league player assignments is minute. I think its too broad of a brush to say aggressive assignments are causing players to fail. Its more case by case. I'd say there are counter examples where the player has benefited. Alcides Escobar didn't really produce until age 21 at AA but the Brewers kept advancing him prior to excelling at any level. Jorge Lopez, ignoring his implosion this year, suddenly saw his light bulb go on last year at AA. Arcia was moved out of A ball after just producing an 84 wRC+, but kept rewarding the Brewers with better production as he would get bumped up until this year. Coulter certainly hasn't excelled by being held back. You can question if specific players would have developed better with more conservative placement, but you can also question whether guys like Braun, Fielder, Weeks would have been as successful had they been more conservative placed. Ultimately it is a case-by-case scenario, but I'd agree that the Brewers aren't demonstrating that they are particularly adept at handling this right now. I know it's SSS, but hopefully Zach Brown is another guy who benefits from aggressive assignment. After following up his 6+ ERA in Lexington with a double digit ERA in Helena, there is little reason to justify him in Wisconsin. But he has a big fastball and was taken in the 5th round so there he is. But maybe getting bumped up has caused something to click. We can only hope.

Fangraphs did a nice job of calculating out Kennedy's negative value at 36 million or ~#50 prospect. The additional complication would be that Kennedy is still expected to produce about 3 wins of value that would mean nothing to the Brewers so we'd likely be wise to move him immediately after taking on his contract. I think his HR/9 will stabilize below 2 and his k-BB of >15% I think would entice someone desperate for pitching. Its not my money so I'm on board. Brewers get: top 50ish prospect Kennedy Team desperate for RP get: Wade Davis Royals get: prospect Brewers get: organizational top 10 prospect Team desperate for starter get: Ian Kennedy and $45 million

Unless the Rays sells off alot, they still have an enviable rotation of Smyly, Archer, Snell, Odorizzi, and Moore. I'd still put money they catch us. FWIW, Fangraphs has the Brewers finishing in a 3 way tie at 70 wins for 4th pick with Lucroy. Braves 58 wins Reds 65 wins Twins 67 wins Brewers, Phillies and Rays 70 wins

Mystery solved Rashad Crawford

I'd give the Reds credit for having a conscience and dumping Chapman for pennies on the dollar, but a conscience sure doesnt help win baseball games

Considering the events of the past week, what an effort! Woodruff's July line is 23.2 IP 0.38 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 32:3 K:BB. He did hit 3 batters. He is in my organizational top 10 now.

Flores hit .282/.376/.449 over 655 plate appearances as a 22-23 year old in AAA. You don't understand why a rebuilding team struck with injuries at his position would give him 250+ PA as a 24 year old to see what he can do?

OOC, what about Braden Webb don't you like that you didn't even consider him? 128 K in 102 innings in the SEC is impressive to me to go along with 2 potential plus pitches.

In 2004, when the Brewers had the "#1 rated farm system" it did not include Gallardo or Braun. I wouldn't be too worried that our farm system isnt as strong as it was back then. I'm far more worried that we draft well and get a better international pipeline going. The Brewers seem well positioned after Lucroy moves on, that the talent entering the big league squad is better than the talent it replaces. Keeping that ball rolling will be key. While we do not have the impact hitters of Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy; I'd place a bet that we have far better pitching than back then and the players who become "everyday MLB" players will be better defenders. The success of the rebuild will be determined by if the talent keeps flowing not whether we have the #1 system or the #10 system at any point in time.

Since this thread seems to serve a additional purpose to actively campaign for players prior to the midseason prospect list vote, I posted this here. More positive press for Woodruff! The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects by Carson Cistulli - July 15, 2016 Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee (Profile) Here’s how the author spends roughly half his time while preparing to write this weekly post: Identify pitcher with excellent statistical indicators. Read report about same pitcher’s underwhelming stuff. Repeat. It isn’t either daring or revelatory to note that the minor leagues possess a number of pitchers — many of them products of collegiate programs — who are able to excel against less experienced hitters by virtue more of guile than arm speed. On-again, off-again major leaguer Tommy Milone is the Platonic Ideal of this archetype, but there are a number currently occupying the tops of minor-league leaderboards, too. James Reeves of the Yankees, for example. And Matt Cooper of the White Sox. Recent Pirates debutant Steven Brault represents another such case. It’s totally possible that all three will have major-league careers, but it’ll require something rare. Which is what makes right-hander Brandon Woodruff such a rare and beautiful bird. In 100.0 innings this year, spread about evenly between High- and Double-A, Woodruff has recorded strikeout and walk rates of 26.1% and 7.3%, respectively. Those are excellent statistical indicators. And where it would be reasonable — given precedent — to expect a report about his underwhelming stuff, this appears instead, courtesy Dan Farnsworth from his Brewers organizational list this winter: One Brewers source put Woodruff’s status best: his numbers don’t do his talent justice. He still has plenty of potential with a quality delivery and stuff, and has had stretches of real dominance in the past year and a half. He will start in either High-A or Double-A, and the Brewers are hoping this is the year he really puts himself on the map, with his ongoing oblique issue from last year hopefully behind him. Woodruff has talent, sitting in the mid- to upper-90s towards the end of his most recent start. And now his numbers are doing him justice. His most recent numbers, in particular: over his last two appearances, the 23-year-old has recorded a 16:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 46 batters.

The Brewers gave Wilkins 4 ABs. Lets assume those at bats would have went to Rivera and Maldonado at 2 a piece. Using the players ZIPs projections of Wilkins (96 wRC+), Rivera (48 wRC+), and Maldonado (60 wRC+), the Brewers could have expected to get ~0.3 more runs using Wilkins. Assuming 10 runs per win, that is worth about .03 of a win. Assuming about $7,000,000 per win on the open market, that is $210,000. Obviously a win isn't worth 7 million at this point to the Brewers, but thats all I got.

With a 5 days until the 15 July signing deadline, Braxton Garrett (1-7 MIA) and Jason Groome (1-12 BOS) remain unsigned. Garrett has Boras as an advisor and a Vandy commit to leverage. Miami hasn't signed its 3rd round pick either, signed away its 2nd round pick (Wei-Yin Chen) and traded away its competitive balance pick so it is light on pool money. If Garrett does not sign, the Brewers will drop to pick 10.

That is quite a jump from only making (1) person's top 150 list...

Anyone have a radar reading on Jordan Yamamoto this year? A 4.5:1 K:BB ratio is pretty sensational.

From a baseball prospective, this has the potential to be a death nail to the Pirates slimming playoff hopes. Kang has been hitting one dinger in under 16 PA on the season. He is also a huge asset to the Pirate's future at under 30 years old so this could be a tough blow for long term too. I've never been to Korea, but I'm guessing as the top Korean baseball player in the world; Kang is a pretty big deal over there. Also a tough blow for my fantasy team My only comment of the legal proceedings is hopefully there is enough evidence that we can get a just resolution.

The ideal answer is on draft day to have selected a couple of tougher "first round talent" signs earlier, but I'm certainly lacking specifics and this year seemed to be unique in the number of teams who were sitting on a pile of cash after pick 30 so that option wasn't really on the table. Maybe select Luzardo over Feliciano? At the end of the day, there is not much to complain about the selections after round 1 even if a few were under slot. There is little reason to believe the Brewers deviated from their board to save cash outside of round 9 and 10 where the math makes sense too. I'd speculate the Brewers looked at their board after round 8 and decided who was highest left on their board who they could still get. Then made it happen.

Was hoping Zach Brown would follow the Brandon Woodruff path of a power arm that would excel with a change of scenery to pro ball, but it hasn't happened yet. Also, tough day for Jack Finnegan, a appearance with a 270.00 ERA is tough to regress

Since I like to complain about nice things, 1.2 million seems like alot for a guy who wasn't really on any top 100 draft prospect lists. Obviously, we don't now where he was on the only list that matters, and he was a multi-sport athlete so he may have been underrated coming in. Kudos to the Brewers for managing their bonus pool and utilizing every penny. Also, would have liked to get more than just 1 prep arm. Maybe Crow really wants to play ball instead of play school at USD and will take $100k.

FWIW, the ASU coach has stated on twitter that 5 recruits have signed. Only 4 recruits have been reported to have signed, and McClanahan is the highest selected recruit that has not reported to have signed.