ZBTMP

Did I miss something on Supak or just didn't make the cut?

How good of a relationship do the Brewers have with Elmore Sports Group? I'd guess with 2 affiliates it can't be terrible. The note about them buying Lynchburg is interesting but the PDC with the Indians goes until 2018. However, they also own Bakersfield who is oft-rumored to be a team that may be headed to Carolina... gives me some hope...

Riley Pint was impressive in his debut, I guess it was a week ago, but this is the first I had seen. Its early, but with Puk's mediocre start to the season, could be high school pitchers going 1-2. http://www.perfectgame.org/blogs/Entry.aspx?entry=42082

I suppose I will have to settle for 28 WAR in his team controlled seasons then... Or do you mean the wife-beating below replacement level player the Rockies got? Arcia putting up a 126 wRC+ being 4 years younger than league average has as much to do with his helium as his glove. He's not Correa, but he has more bat than Sardinas, Rivera, or even Alcidis Escobar had, I mean he's not going to be the super star, perennial all star that the hype he's gotten so far would warrant. He's going to be very good. I'm thinking slightly better than Elvis Andrus was early in his career. I think I get what you are saying which is he is not a future #3 hitter (sabrmetric lineup optimization arguments aside) in contending lineup which I agree with; but... Elvis Andrus was an all star 2 of his first 4 years and was runner up for ROY in one of the other 2 years. He produced between 3.6-4.3 bWAR in 4 of his first 5 seasons. If he gives us "slightly better" than that level of production his current current ranking is justified.

I agree about Arcia. I feel he's gotten so hyped that he will only disappoint the casual fan. They're expecting Troy Tulowitzy but will be getting Jose Reyes. I suppose I will have to settle for 28 WAR in his team controlled seasons then... Or do you mean the wife-beating below replacement level player the Rockies got? Arcia putting up a 126 wRC+ being 4 years younger than league average has as much to do with his helium as his glove. He's not Correa, but he has more bat than Sardinas, Rivera, or even Alcidis Escobar had,

Missing why Diaz is assurred to be moved. The Brewers have been pretty consistent that Diaz will play shortstop this season. mlb.com

Not to mention the FA compensation system is likely to change prior to the 2017-18 free agency period anyway.

1) O. Arcia- Its entirely within the realm of possibilities that he hits a bunch and Villar does not to start the season. I doubt the Brewers budge before July, but…. 2) B. Phillips- Probably not worthy of the oft-injured moniker yet, but after ending last season's thumb and spring's oblique, a few months of playing every day would make me feel better. 3) J. Lopez- His loose, athletic delivery is fun to watch. Something worth following and showing up a Miller Park to watch this summer when he arrives. 4) T. Clark- Since I don't have anything new to say about Clark, and he is the first low-minors player I've ranked; I am pondering if the Brewers will be more aggressive in mideseason promotions with Stearns at the helm. A lot of the acquired Astro farm hands seemed to play at multiple levels in a given season. 5) K. Medeiros- I probably still like Medeiros more than most because he was on when I saw him. Would like to see less platoon splits this year. 6) J. Hader- The typical scouting report has gone from concerns about quality of breaking pitches to concerns about max effort delivery and build. At least he seemingly took one concern off his list. 7) M. Reed- Reed's path to MLB playing time got more clouded this offseason, but its nice to hear the Brewers coming out and saying that he is very much in the future plans without really being prompted. 8) C. Ponce- Disappointed I missed the opportunity to watch Ponce pitch in the Midwest League. 9) J. Nottingham- Widely varying opinions on the guy from top 100 prospect to not top 10 catching prospect. The Brewers though seem commited to keeping him behind the plate and have no reason not to be patient. 10) G. Lara- Good to hear he put on 10-15 lbs of "good weight" after he seemingly wore down last season. 11) I. Diaz- While the pioneer league is as hitter friendly as they come, the fact that he had the highest OPS as a teenager since Billy Butler is what sells me that he could be special 12) C. Coulter- Defensive rawness aside, I still love Coulter's combination of raw power and plate discipline and think he could be an impact bat at the big league level. Actually if I had to pick one player in the system, who could be a future #3 hitter in a big league lineup, it'd probably be him. But he needs to be quicker to make adjustments and mantain his walk rate as he progresses up the latter. 13) D. Williams- Really nothing new to add here after the offseason, but I havent heard any indications that he's not past whatever kept him in extended spring training to start the year last season. So that may be a good thing. 14) Z. Davies- Davies mlb eta may have been delayed this offseason, but I still see 20 starts here. 15) M. Harrison- Hearing that he isn't 100% to start spring isn't good news, but hopefully he is ready to go by T-Rat opening day 16) M. Diplan- I guess ultamately the Gallardo trade jury is still out, but Knebel liekly moving into a more high leverage role, and Diplan moving into full season ball, it could be a big hit by the end of the year. 17) J. Gatewood- Despite only being in his 2nd full season and impressive raw power, this seems like a big year for Gatewood. His development track is seemingly either is going to take off or fade into the background. 18) T. Taylor- Doug Melvin seemed to hold tight to the conviction that speed guys develop late. Unfortunately for Tyrone, Doug doesn’t run the show anymore. His best bet is to start producing alittle more. 19) N. Kirby- The waiting game sucks 20) D. Orimoloye- A crowded Wisconsin outfield probably seels his fate to be ticketed to Helena, but its probably for the best for a patient development path. 21) A. Houser- I wonder what the development plan is for Houser. He doesn’t have the history of success that warrents clearing a rotation spot for, nor is he likely to have tremendous success in Colorado Springs. I assume at some point in time he will transition to the bullpen but maybe that happen in Milwaukee 22) B. Woodruff- I manipulated my list from last fall so he still made the cutoff. So what? Frankly, I still do not understand why people are not more excited about this guy. 23) R. Flores- Already projects a 100 wRC bat. He may not have any exception tools, but he seems like a young, Venezuelan Brady Clark. 24) C. Walsh- Ok, I understand there is a reason why the As, who arent dumb, left this guy unprotected, and the Cardinals, who arent dumb, released this guy… But Baseball prospectus 90th percentile projection is .284/.398/.438. Unless Im completely misunderstanding math, there is a 10% chance he does that... this year... as a rule 5 pick. as a second basement... That is insane to me. 25) M. Diaz- Sounds like the Brewers are ticketing him for Wisconsin which is just another funbox score to follow during long night watch our local 9. 26) T. Perry- Might be an overslot until he actually does something in fullseason ball as a 14th round pick, but I have such fond memories of a former Brewers well-built first basemen mashing dingers. 27) G. Cecchini- I realize he was acquired for straight cash, but its hard for me to believe that his K:BB ratio doubled without some ill-advised adjustment. He's still young enough that it isnt out of the realm of possibilities he can get back to the player he was. 28) T. Williams- As a fan its nice that the system depth still gives plenty of players to follow with Williams missing 2 full seasons. Unfortunately, probably no solace for Taylor 29) B. Derby- Fair or not, Tyler Thornberg's inability to translate to sustained MLB success will likely limit my enthusiasm for Derby, but still should be a fun player to follow. 30) R. Liriano- The plus of rebuilding is there is no downside to take a flier here and Stearns seems to fully understand that. Now hopefully we get to experience plenty of upside. 31) C. Herrera- Admittedly, I was underwhelmed on the return for Lind who will be the best hitter in Seattle's lineup most nights, but I've been wrong before. I'll have no issues with Herrera and company making me look foolish for my skepticism. 32) K. Broxton- I just don't see enough power to make a 30% strikeout rate work at the majors. Hopefully skills growth in contact is forthcoming. 33) J. Barnes- It seems like the Brewers strategy of development of relievers hasn’t produced much for MLB success. Here is to hoping Barnes can change that 34) N. Orf- Keeps exceeding expectations. Wouldn’t be surprised if he got some MLB time somehow this year. 35) T. Supak- A wide array of possible outcomes is a good way to describe Supak 36) J. Bethancourt- Admittedly, hard to get excited about an OBP hovering around .300. But context is important I suppose 37) T. Stokes- Hope he is placed in Wisconsin and the Brewers can find a way to get him regular at-bats. 38) C. Leal- Leal is about the only person I've really dropped since fall. I guess with him no longer holding the debatable status as top catching prospect in the organization has caused me to sour. That and I need to see that he can sustain a above average BABIP as he advances up the ladder 39) A. Ventura- I was admittedly (maybe unnecessarily) worried that the Brewers might lose him in the rule 5 draft. Yeah, it'd be a jump, but his year in Appleton was quietly quite impressive. 40) D. Denson- Denson once hit a 515 foot home run as an amateur…. Hopefully that isnt a career highlight. Be nice to see the power tool and discipline translate this season. 41) D. Magnifico- Will need to see more him miss more bats before I think he has a high leverage future 42) B. Diaz- I'm guessing he is the best 3rd rated Diaz in a system in baseball. 43) Z. Jones- Wouldn’t be surprised if he started on the DL so the Brewers could get alittle longer to evaluate if there is any control at all. 44) J. Ortega- Just such a statistical anomaly. I got a feeling more of those balls in play land over the fence outside of Brevard 45) N. Walters- Could jump up the list quickly this year if he shows good progression in year 2. 46) M. Collymore- If he can maintain a high BABIP in Wisconsin I will believe more 47) S. Nolin- A strong spring training and he certainly offers more upside than (open) on the 40 man. 48) Y. Rivera- Hitting in small sample sizes is better than not hitting in small samples sizes, but I still don't see him hitting much 49) F. Peralta- See C. Herrera 50) Y. Barrios- I was skeptical of his ability to succeed in the pen without more Ks. For someone who is new to pitching a shoulder injury is not helping anything.

I don't think Attansio has been cheap in his ownership of the club, but it'd be really nice if he would take some of the 40-60 million he is saving in big league payroll this year and solve the situation. As far as his speech about "nothing standing in the way of the world series", a development environment with an average of 14 runs and 3 dingers a game would seem to be an obstacle.

Thanks for the nice write-up. Hernan has a sub-.300 OBP and 6K to 0BBs. The Brewers already chose Walsh over him when they outrighted him this offseason (and then, 29 other teams passed on him). He hasn't done anything to show he is a different player. I'd put the odds at 95-5 Walsh at this point. I think Flores is in lock territory. Stearns didnt give up a decent young shortstop for him just to cut him based off of spring training. Since he already projects for a 100wRC by basically every projection, I doubt he'd clear waivers. I don't know if you left Morales intentionally since he has yet to pitch, but the fact they brought him in when they did, tells me they saw a need and he has a good shot to make this team. I think Nolin offers the most longterm upside but I've yet to see a velocity report on him showing he is throwing above 90 again. If he is working in the mid-80s, I doubt he cracks the roster.

Is it too much to ask that the Brewers be proactive on this one? The Brewers got duped or somehow ignored all the signs on losing Nashville. Maybe Im just being a negative nancy, but its not hard to envision that the Astros would want there high A affiliate at their new state of facility and Brevard being without a home, it would seem to make sense on how they could make that happen. Ending up in Lancaster at a stadium called "the hanger" for its hitter friendly conditions seems like a very real possibility to me. Yuck.

Don’t want to sidetrack the Jacob Degrom thread but here is an article that touches on why raising the league minimum has a negative impact on competitive balance as well as the other challenges presented in the upcoming CBA fight. MLB players are going to be looking for their salaries to better keep up with the growth in league revenue. Unfortunately, the growth in revenue has been much greater with high revenue clubs who can leverage the mega TV contracts. Yet large market clubs do not want to further subsidize small market payrolls. The method to distribute the growth in revenue to players without taking steps back in competitive balance will be a major upcoming challenge.

I totally agree thought 1b was a need in the future with this team and in the Minors very strange move. Tyrone Perry is actually a month older than Denson. A 16.2% walk rate in rookie ball last year might be enough to warrant an aggressive jump to A ball. It is reasonable that the Brewers investigating ways to get both bats in the same lineup.

I don't think I did. Overall not a bad list with some insight in there. Didn't know there was video of Miguel Diaz online. I agree with seeing Woodruff listed as he is on the list for most overlooked in the system. The one I do struggle with is categorizing Ponce as a low ceiling-polished college arm. Yes, he seems adept at spotting his fastball, but he's hitting 97 in his midwest league starts and 98 in instructionals. Not sure he needs anymore projection. I understand concerns about his shoulder, but that doesn't put his ceiling at a #4 starter. His secondary stuff needs work, but its what you'd expect from someone who has been overpowering weaker competition and has been successful with relying on the fastball.

Not much sympathy. I do agree that his production does warrant more long term financial security than league minimum, but Im sure the Mets will gladly give him a higher salary if he wants to give up some arbitration and FA years. Although, I have more sympathy for him than Cole who has a sizable draft bonus in addition to his union negotiated salary.

Actually people do laugh at jokes like this. And Phillips most likely has below average intelligence so I'm sure that contributes to him laughing so hard at grade school jokes Phillips had a 3.2 gpa in high school. Not exactly Walsh, Capuano, or Suter but probably not worthy of the unfair label of "below average intelligence".

I'll settle for we don't know. I'd tend to think GMs would be valuing projected growth in age 26-30 seasons that Smith still has that Cecil does not. When I did trade values I put Smith #5 right behind Lopez (going off the fact that BA had rated Lopez ahead of Barrios and Stephenson in their Southern League List), but I'd think they have similar value knowing that Smith can make 29 other teams better tomorrow.

Projections are one thing, but Smith was the 21st best reliever last year (by fWAR), 25th best from 2014-2015. That puts him in the same territory as Pat Neshek, Pedro Strop, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, Justin Wilson, etc. Yes he has more team control than most of those guys, but I'm just not sure he has the value to land a top 50 prospect. If Brett Cecil had team control similar to Smith, would you give up Maverick Phillips for him? Trent Clark? Jorge Lopez? Are we talking a 3 year younger, harder throwing Brett Cecil with more strikeouts? Depending on where Im at in the competitive cycle, the depth of my farm system, and my overall team need I guess.

We will see, but I agree with this. Fangraphs has Smith projected to be the 8th most valuable reliever in baseball and has 4 more seasons of team control. He is instantly the best reliever in the Twins pen. With the premium being placed on high leverage relievers, I will be disappointed if we don't land at least (1) ~top 50 prospect.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/ ZIPs are out. Interesting comp on Arcia. I'll take the Carter, Santana, and Jungmann lines. Weird love for Clint Coulter (relative to other minor leaguers) and distaste for Jorge Lopez.

Too bad we couldn't swing Banda back. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/arizona-diamondbacks-top-10-prospects-chat/

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/11/12/9722594/minor-league-ball-top-20-prospects-for-2016-organization-index For comparison sake, Sickels has the Brewers with 15 prospects given a straight B- grade or better. That is the most of any of the 13 systems that he has analyzed so far (including Dodgers, Red Sox, and pre-Miller Braves). I'm struggling to understand an analysis that is based on anything other than perception, Keith Law, or affiliate win % that puts us in the bottom half of baseball.

1) Lucroy 2) Arcia 3) Nelson 4) Lopez 5) Smith 6) Jeffress 7) Davis 8) Davies 9) Knebal 10) Santana There is kind of a risk, reward to trade values. I don't expect the prospect we could get back for Lucroy to include a prospect as highly valued as Arcia, but I expect the summation of the package to be superior than what we could get for trading just Arcia.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/jeff-gordon/gordo-some-mlb-teams-tanking-now-for-future-returns/article_795cd5e3-4c4a-5803-836c-79c0fdc4c8c0.html St. Louis newspaper weighing in that lack of ambition is the Brewer's problem and it is making baseball less enjoyable for them. No mention that the Cardinals try to win every season because the talent the organization has accumulated projects to win between 85-100 games.