SandyTolan

Exactly. You could even have a scenario where Hader has lowered his pitch count/BB per inning, developed a third pitch, and goes into the rotation in August while a stud reliever takes his place. A lot of scenarios...

From what I understand, players can only generate one qualifying offer and hence draft pick for their entire career. So the Brewers couldn't do a QO and get a draft pick for Arrieta, since he would have already been through that. BUT if he would agree to 2/$49.5M, with say 30 upfront and an opt-out after, then the Brewers would get the draft pick. Doesn't sound like that's very likely, though.

Cire52 is correct. HH19 doesn't have a twitter account - he has stated so himself. I've deleted the post - and those that followed - to prevent confusion. Forgive me for bringing this up again especially as it is off-topic but it does appear that since you wrote this, Relly, HH19 has indeed joined twitter. Here's a tweet: Well, it's finally here. I have officially joined twitter. There have been fake accounts everywhere including Brewersworld. You can verify this account on http://Brewerfan.net under the section called "Off Topic". You can also verify this account at Al's Ramblings. Stay tuned And indeed in Off Topic HighHeat19 does say the same thing in a thread called HIghHeat19 New twitter account. So, maybe this is finally for real...

The reports of the Cubs offering Arrieta the same deal Darvish took, and Arrieta turning them down, appear to be inaccurate: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-arrieta-turned-down-six-year-offer-from-cubs.html A careful reading of Heyman’s phrasing is advised, as he at no point states that the Cubs actually made a six-year offer to Arrieta. Nor could one accurately say Arrieta turned down a six-year offer from the Cubs, as we erroneously did in an earlier version of this post.

In this case though I'd make an exception. If they offered him a large (e.g. $35M) one year contract, or 2/$49.5 with the majority upfront, it would be advantageous to the Brewers for three reasons: 1. No draft pick compensation 2. In a year or two at the most, at least one of Burnes/Peralta/Ortiz is ready to perform at a high level 3. Doesn't break the bank long-term Now whether Boras/Arrieta would go for this is another question. I have my doubts.

My reading of this is that the Cubs called to tell Arrieta and his agent what they were giving Darvish, and if he'd accept a similar value then he could be signed instead. He likely needed to accept right at that moment. Looks like MLBTR corrected an earlier story they ran saying Arrieta actually turned down a Cub offer. Apparently, he did not: A careful reading of Heyman’s phrasing is advised, as he at no point states that the Cubs actually made a six-year offer to Arrieta. Nor could one accurately say Arrieta turned down a six-year offer from the Cubs, as we erroneously did in an earlier version of this post.

I haven't seen those rumors. Do you have a link? I"m curious. A certain HH around here was saying the Rays wanted Domingo, Burnes, Peralta and Phillips - a price even the most ardent let's-get-Archer fan seems go find too high - but who knows if this was really true? If it were Domingo + Ortiz and another not-huge piece, I'd be down with that. But I'm a little skeptical. Would love to know where that rumor comes from.

At first I looked just at his MLB stats and thought, Why? But looking at his MiLB stats over 6 seasons, it's far more impressive. 10.1K/9, 2.6BB/9, WHIP 1.1, ERA 3.65. And yeah, at 26, and under Derek Johnson's tutelage, could be a smart, buy-low, DS savvy move. But getting only him back for Domingo? Not so sure about that.

I too am in favor of Salazar... but as I just posted in another thread, what if Stearns and CC are actually planning to unveil Hader in the rotation, pending how he looks there (walks, pitch count, third pitch) in spring training? This could be the equivalent or better of the Darvish signing... IF the ifs are addressed successfully.

What if Stearns has a secret weapon SP we aren't considering... named Josh Hader? What if they land another RP and despite what they've said publicly, take a close look at him in spring training, see if he can keep his walks down and develop that third pitch... and then put him in the rotation?

Seems this might be the time to pull the trigger on the rumored Santana-for-Salazar deal. Salazar could be a real sleeper, even outperform Darvish at a fraction of the cost. Or, Clevinger.

That's what Melvin used to always tell Tom - just before a big Brewer trade or signing.

I think it'd be a big mistake to let go of Villar at this point since they wouldn't get much for him. Maybe Hernan could be added to a trade, or Sogard (despite the fact he's the kind of player CC loves) could be cut. I don't think his contract is guaranteed, is it? If they sign Walker, and let go of Hernan, Villar could play the role Hernan did last year. Spelling Walker at 2B, Arcia at SS, Shaw at 3B, getting 3-4 starts per week, maybe playing his way into more ABs, and adding depth for a trading chip at the trading deadline. Much better than letting him go.

OK so maybe in 2018, year one of the post-rebuild era, the Crew won't be fully equipped to win a World Series. BUT... they'll likely get into the Wild Card, and possibly challenge the North Siders for the division title. Once they're in the playoffs, who knows what will happen? That could be a good philosophy to have for this first year. But then next year, Hader could be ready to move into the rotation, Houser, Taylor Williams, and maybe Freddy Peralta could be bullpen studs, Phillips could be the regular RF if his bat plays (giving Milwaukee the best defensive OF in MLB), and the depth (Thames, Santana if he's still around, BP and even starter depth) could turn into additional help wherever it's needed, and/or prospects to extend the run. Starting in 2019 is where I see there could be a real move toward a prolonged WS run.

I'm with you. It's been a while since we've this much to look forward to. Having said that, the pitching still scares me a little bit. If Nelson were healthy then I'd feel better but he isn't and there is no guarantee he will be. I don't think they need Kershaw, but they need improvements. I too wouldn't like to head into the season with our current rotation. But by all reports I seriously doubt that will happen. Adding say Cobb would mean Anderson/Cobb/Davies/Chacin and some combo of Woodruff/Guerra/Suter/Wilkerson/Gallardo. Until Nelson comes back strong, if he can. I think that's pretty good. And if they can roll with Domingo, put Braun at 1B with some spot starts in LF/RF, play Thames a little less against RHPs and not at all against LHPs, get a lottery ticket for Aguilar, that's all looking pretty good. They can stash Broxton in AAA if they can't get anything for him in a trade, and roll with Phillips as 4th OF, sometimes displaced by Braunie with his spot starts in corner OF. And yeah maybe sign Walker. Boy what's not to like with this lineup? Cain Yelich Braun Shaw Santana Walker Piña Arcia Bench: Thames Vogt Phillips Villar Hernan/Sogard (One might have to go if Walker is signed)

Comments like these never make sense. Do you really think that Stearns isn't looking to upgrade every position that he can? I'm guessing he has feelers out for every single position on the team. It is exactly why the Cain transaction happened. It just happened to work out. We have Pina, Vogt, and I guess Bandy. If there is a guy out there that can be had and that is in their price range (money or prospects), Stearns will pull the trigger on it. People are so focused on adding a starting pitcher, which we can all agree that we need, that they don't realize that these GM's don't work that way. At least not a bright and focused one like Stearns. Well, a comment like yours makes no sense to me so there ya go. Do you really think a "bright and focused" GM goes into the off-season and pulls the trigger on a deal that "just happens to work out"? The Cain signing was lined up well before the Yelich deal was pulled off. That is a PLAN my friend, not happen stance. In my opinion it's naive to think that a GM is just going to fling assets at the next shiny object that improves the team at the margins because it "fits their price". There is a concept called opportunity cost that I guarantee any GM worth his salt is very familiar with. What if you sign a catcher for $2M and then find out you could have gotten Darvish for an extra $2M? A good GM absolutely has a priority list the same as any project manager would. They do not have unlimited resources so prioritization is absolutely critical. So yes, they have bigger fish to fry than going after a marginal upgrade at catcher. I agree that an upgrade at catcher may not be high on the Crew's priority list, though FWIW, HH19 did say that was somewhere on the list of Brewer FO priorities.

Oh, how far we have fallen, from the heady days of High Heat and His Insider Info To... discussions about serviceable catchers. Hearing the crickets. Watching the paint dry, the grass grow. Don't worry folks, I'm just having fun. Not making a dig at anybody.

Hiura needs a full year just to work of defense if nothing else. I think Braun finds a way to be "healthier" (no, that is not a PED dig) if they put a team around him that is truly capable of challenging for more than a one game playoff. Either way, if Santana does not get regular at bats his value is going to fall. Couple that with the fact that this team needs more pitching and I believe the absolute right move is to trade. The team has been trying to deal him since the season ended so I have to believe they are in the same frame of mind. Good on Stearns for holding out for the best deal but I still say this is the team (with Santana) that goes to spring training. Also, Hiura has never played above low A-ball, and even there, not for long. So he'll likely start in high A, and with luck get to AA this year. Would be really surprised to see him in Milwaukee before late 2019.

I also like the idea of hanging onto Santana if possible, and instead signing Darvish or Arrieta. This puts Braun in 1B share with Thames, most likely, with him playing a bit of corner OF and Phillips as the 4th/5th OF. There's an option for Broxton so that needn't be an issue. In which case: Cain Yelich Braun Shaw Santana Villar Piña Arcia Rotaton: Darvish/Arrieta-Anderson-Davies-Chacin-Guerra/Suter/Woodruff/Gallardo On the other hand, some kind of Santana + mid-level prospect + Hernan or Broxton for Salazar/Clevenger + Kipnis, with Cleveland eating some of Kipnis's $28M salary over the next two years, could be pretty great, too. Cain Yelich Braun Shaw Thames/Aguilar Kipnis Piña Arcia Phillips, 4th OF; Villar, supersub Rotation: Anderson-Salazar-Davies-Chacin-Guerra/Suter/Woodruff/Gallardo

Why in the world would the Brewers give up a 24 year old 3 WAR player for an expensive broken down 2B and an always injured pitcher? Let alone add more to the deal? Kipnis has had 4 3.9WAR or higher seasons in last 6 years. Salazar has had a 2.9 and 3.3 2 of last 3years. Put their 2015 WAR together and it was 7.8. Cleveland is logjammed at SP and we are with OF. You can also add Kipnis has 2 years remaining not picking up his 3rd year option as Hiura at that time should be locked in to a 2b roster deserving spot(we hope) IF the deal went down as suggested above for Santana and spare pieces, you have the potential on the two for 2 years and at the same time in 2 years you've now kept Burnes, Peralta, Ponce, Hiura, and Lutz who should become positive producers for us. It's a perfect bridge the gap with upside. Good point - I love that bridge idea, much more than 4-5 years and rebuild, which would have been more likely had the Crew traded a second big haul for Archer. On top of that, Cain's contract calls for full no-trade in its first year, and gradually reduces to I think only 5 teams in its final year. So if somehow Corey Ray or another surprise producer is ready for CF within the next 3-4 years, Cain could be dealt for prospects or whomever...

What if the Brewers added Hernan in addition to whatever they're already offering? He might not be their everyday 2B but could be serviceable; that way the Brewers would avoid an IF logjam as well.

At one point as I recall (and maybe it's accurate) HH saying that a deal with an AL team was being held up over how much salary the Crew would pick up. Makes sense it would be Cleveland, but who knows?

I'm sure the value of the prospect then would hinge on how much money is coming back the Brewers' way. Regardless, I can't imagine it would be a super high-end prospect. I could see someone like Carlos Herrera going back to the Indians. This would be highly preferable to the Archer deal. Meantime, I wonder if they're thinking of Clevinger instead of Salazar. Either way, unless Cleveland ate most of Kipnis's salary, this would probably mean no big FA SP signing by the Crew. Though maybe there'd still be room for a Cobb late in spring training...

Yeah, I just saw that Splitter and edited my post... I suppose the hamstring issues could have affected his performance that much. Still, seems like a gamble to expect a bounceback, especially at that salary...

He is a respected vet, a leader, bats left handed, decent speed, puts ball into play and not a K monster and most importantly.......he's a stop gap to Hiurea. HH, I'm curious, even with what you wrote, why the Brewers are so enamored with Kipnis. His numbers from last year are pretty bad, including a .291 OBP. Via Sportrac, he's owed $28M over the next two years. Even if Cleveland picks up a decent chunk of that, this seems like an overpay, big time. Am I missing something? Did his hamstring problems last year (two DL stints) affect his performance? If the Crew is expecting a bounce-back year, I can suggest another bounce-back candidate, one who comes much cheaper and is already on the team. Yeah, he's maddening at times, strikes out too much, and tends to run into outs too much. But he's $11M cheaper this year alone, and won't interfere with the Brewers signing a SP.