SandyTolan

What about Clevinger?

Honestly I feel that the optimism on Archer is reaching Stage 5 Hurricane proportions. Other than his mediocre ERA, which I know many people here don't like, there's also a mediocre WHIP, high homer rate, which would likely rise, maybe significantly, in Miller Park, high hard contact rate, and the fact that he seems to be trending downward in the last two years, and is not a kid anymore. All that, all those question marks, and we give TB Santana, two of our very best pitching prospects, including our #1 prospect, PLUS Brett Phillips? Thanks, but no way. Please look somewhere else, Crew.

Put it this way... if you put together a trade package for archer where you step back and think, "that doesnt hurt so much..." it's not going to be enough. Broxton, aguilar, perez and ponce dont tip the scales Maybe so. And if so, I say, time to walk away. Getting a good SP needn't cost that much. Apparently it does need to cost that much. If they could get the equivalent or better of Archer for that package, it would have been done. It does appear there are slightly lesser options at significantly lower prices. Part of it is I'm not as sold on Archer as others here - certainly not at that price. And if it's that price or no go, then if I'm Stearns I'd be happy to walk.

Put it this way... if you put together a trade package for archer where you step back and think, "that doesnt hurt so much..." it's not going to be enough. Broxton, aguilar, perez and ponce dont tip the scales Maybe so. And if so, I say, time to walk away. Getting a good SP needn't cost that much.

It seems a proposal like that may not be in the realm of possibility. Unfortunately, from what HighHeat19 is saying on the "What's Next" thread, the Rays are demanding a roughly equivalent or even more valuable package just for Archer: From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. To me that is a walk away, seeya later price. Would MUCH rather hang onto those guys, trade Santana to Cleveland for Salazar or Clevenger (or Santana + for Salazar and Kipnis) than give up that much. It's basically saying that Archer is so much better than Salazar, he's worth paying Phillips, Burnes and Peralta, on top of what it would take to get Salazar. To me, that is just way too much. I think Burnes alone could be as good as Archer as early as next year. Then it seems like Archer is a hard pass. No way DS, BP and CB, just no way. Agreed. But what about, say, Santana, Woodruff, Broxton, Ponce, and one of Hernan or Aguilar?

BTW HighHeat - You had mentioned a Trade A with an AL team getting nixed over salary issues, i.e. how much the Crew would pick up. This led a lot of people to speculate about the Yanks/Ellsbury. But, if you can share this, do you think (as others have speculated) that the trade that fell apart was with Cleveland, maybe for Salazar and Kipnis, and the two sides disagreed over how much of Kipnis's salary they would take on?

Wow - Burnes, Peralta, Santana, Phillips for Archer? That's just way too much! I know it's looked down upon here to cite ERA numbers, but homers and hard contact numbers for Archer aren't very good either, and he'll likely give up more homers in Miller Park. So I say, at that price, just walk away. Or maybe swap out Woodruff for Burnes, Broxton (plus Hernan or Aguilar?) for Phillips, Ponce or Diplan for Peralta. So: Santana, Woodruff, Broxton, Hernan/Aguilar, Ponce. That' still a pretty good haul. But much less painful. If Tampa is really demanding Burnes, Peralta, Santana and Phillips, I'd prefer just doing Santana for Salazar or Clevenger. I don't think Archer is so much better that he's worth an additional Peralta, Phillips, and Burnes. No way.

It seems a proposal like that may not be in the realm of possibility. Unfortunately, from what HighHeat19 is saying on the "What's Next" thread, the Rays are demanding a roughly equivalent or even more valuable package just for Archer: From what I know, a trade of Santana, Phillips, Burnes and Peralta is what TB want's for Archer. To me that is a walk away, seeya later price. Would MUCH rather hang onto those guys, trade Santana to Cleveland for Salazar or Clevenger (or Santana + for Salazar and Kipnis) than give up that much. It's basically saying that Archer is so much better than Salazar, he's worth paying Phillips, Burnes and Peralta, on top of what it would take to get Salazar. To me, that is just way too much. I think Burnes alone could be as good as Archer as early as next year.

Heyman does some pretty interesting handicapping of who Darvish will sign with. He says the Cubs appear to be low-balling, the Dodgers and Yanks have luxury tax issues (plus LAD internal management seems to be divided in part because of the World Series), the Twins "don't look like a favorite," and neither do the Rangers, who are "hard to consider" a favorite. The Brewers, he said, "quite likely" appear to be outbidding the Cubs, who "seem to be hoping that Darvish will choose them for reasons that are not economic." So, the Crew is very much still in the running. Article here: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-betts-arb-win-could-affect-others/ But of course this could all be that the Brewers are being used just to drive up bids for Darvish, as others have said.

Thank YOU. Agree completely.

As I was told, Darvish's camp was looking for final offers. Brewer's gave theirs and then Cubs came in and exceeded Brewer's offer. I/we assumed that Cubs would get Darvish as their were no other offers coming in....at all. This went on for a few days. Darvish's camp just sat tight and is still sitting. 2 days ago Brewer's came back and matched Cubs. Brewer's don't know yet if Cubs or even other teams have matched. Waiting on Darvish's side now. And the thought from Baseball execs is that if Darvish keeps these teams waiting to much longer that they will A) sign other pitchers decreasing the need for Darvish. B) Teams will withdraw their offers as teams don't want to be jerked around. And because of the latter statement. A Decision is "expected" by Monday. As all teams on Darvish are getting impatient and even a little perturbed. And my source is not aware of where the bidding/numbers/years is at. But..........it's going to be extremely pricey!!! Very interesting, thanks.

HH19, a question (and sorry if you've answered this elsewhere) Recently, as I recall, you mentioned that your source said unequivocally that the Brewers were out on Darvish and that he almost certainly was going to the Cubs. This is not to challenge you, but I'm curious: What do you think changed, with your/your source's analysis? I know, stuff happens...but I'm curious to know what you think went down.

Agreed on this. I tell them Burnes is off the table. The offer is Santana, Ortiz, and a lower rated prospect. Take it or leave it. I have a feeling this is roughly what was offered and perhaps loosely agreed upon, and now TB wants more after the Yelich trade. And it appears Stearns has (appropriately IMO) said no, and isn't budging. Yeah, this sounds about right to me. Though I would be willing to do Santana, Woodruff and maybe two prospects in the 11-20 range. But agree completely, if they insist on Burnes, walk away. I think he (and Hader) can be in the rotation in 2019.

None of the packages above. Would MUCH rather sign Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb, and roll with one of them, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, and WoodruffGuerra/etc., with Jimmy hopefully coming back strong in June. Rather have Santana in the lineup and Braun at 1B. Remember, the Crew's pitching was not so much the issue last year as much as its lack of timely hitting down the stretch.

Not sure I understand the wish to unload a terrific young hitter in Santana, plus more prospects, for a TOR or near-TOR starter, when the Crew can just go out and buy one in Darvish, Arrieta, or maybe Cobb. This way you get a murderer's row of Yelich/Cain/Santana, move Braun to 1B, and unload Thames, Aguilar, and Broxton to replenish the farm a little bit. If the Crew can sign a reasonable 2B (Nuñez 2/$14M?), Shaw can spell Braun at 1B a little bit. Villar could play a little 3B, while sharing some 2B starts with Nuñez and even spelling Arcia maybe once a week. Cain/Yelich/Braun/Shaw/Santana/Nuñez-Villar/Piña/Arcia, Wow. Arrieta/Anderson/Davies/Chacin/Woodruff-Guerra-Gallardo. And Nelson when he's ready.

Hey weren't you going ice fishin?

Wonder if HH's identity was detected and he's laying low for a while... HH, you out there? Edit: Oops, I take that back. HH just posted in the Yelich thread.

What about adding Hernan to any Cleveland deal? That would help with their 2B issues...

I'm pretty sure I'm in the minority, but honestly I wouldn't do Santana + Davies for Archer if I were the Brewers. Will Archer really be THAT much better than Davies over the next few years? Better, yes, but an entire Domingo Santana better? I kinda doubt it. Maybe because I'm pretty high on Davies.

HighHeat - Just curious if you happen to remember "Brewcrew Jon" from the JS Online board, back in the day. He called a lot of things, right down to contract numbers. Any chance you know who that is and/or whether he's still around? thanks.

If Brinson and Dubon could bring back Yelich and Gordon, I'd do back flips. (And that wouldn't be pretty.) I doubt that'd be enough, but if it would be, by all means, yes. I'd even add Ray if need be.

Sandy Tolan’s Offseason Plan Arbitration-eligible: Jared Hughes - $2.2 mil Tender Jeremy Jeffress - $2.6 mil Tender Stephen Vogt - $3.9 mil Non-tender Jonathan Villar - $3.0 mil Tender Jimmy Nelson - $4.7 mil Tender Hernan Perez - $2.2 mil TRADE Corey Knebel - $4.1 mil TRADE Perez and Knebel form part of the blockbuster deal with the Marlins (see below). Vogt’s defense, especially his abysmal numbers throwing out would-be base stealers, leaves much to be desired. Despite his clubhouse presence, the Brewers cut ties and sign another vet, Chris Iannetta (24 percent CS), on a 2-year deal. Villar sticks around and becomes the next Hernan Perez supersub. Impending free agents: Neil Walker: made $17.2 mil in 2017 (ineligible for QO) Let go Anthony Swarzak: made $900K in 2017 (ineligible for QO) Sign (2 years, 13 million) Matt Garza: made $12.5 mil in 2017 Let go Free agent signings: RP Brandon Morrow 3/24 (as per MLBTR) RP Anthony Swarzak 2/13 RP Pat Neshek 2/12 C Chris Iannetta 2/10 Trades: Trade Lewis Brinson, Hernan Perez, Keon Broxton, Corey Ray, Corey Knebel and Domingo Santana to the Marlins for Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton. The blockbuster trade with Florida makes the Brewers the favorite in the NL Central. They do this without gutting the farm: they lose Brinson and Ray, but retain 8 of their top 10 prospects, and everyone else. (Though adding another prospect pitcher such as Diplan or even Ortiz may make this deal more realistic.) Though the loss of Knebel will be significant, the signings of Morrow, Neshek and Swarzak fill that hole, while also allowing Hader to move into the starting rotation (the equivalent of a FA signing), provided he can keep his pitch count down and develop another pitch during spring training. Batting order: Gordon 2B Yelich CF Braun LF Stanton RF Shaw 3B Thames 1B Piña C Arcia SS P This batting order makes the Brewers the envy of many an MLB team. Bench: Villar Sogard Phillips Aguilar Iannetta This will be an exceptionally strong bench. With Hernan gone, Jonathan Villar steps into the role of supersub, filling in at three infield positions (and OF in a pinch – he’ll bone up by seeing action there in ST) and getting four to five starts a week. If he falters, Sogard is there; if Villar excels, there won’t be much playing time for Eric. A good problem to have. Brett Phillips would be in danger of being the odd man out, but he too should be able to get perhaps four starts a week, spelling all three outfielders, especially Braun. Iannetta will be the backup but should get at least two starts a week. Aguilar reprises his role as platoon 1B and top pinch hitter. Starters: Anderson Davies Hader Woodruff Wilkerson/Guerra In lieu of a free agent signing, Hader’s move into the rotation can be equal if not better than nearly every FA starter. I had boldly projected a Darvish signing, but once I added up the salaries of the FA relievers, plus Stanton and Gordon, I was over $140 million. I haven’t added up all the contracts via Cotts. If need be I’d take away one of the FA relievers and go with Bandy over Iannetta. Estimated salary here, about $120M, which I believe Attanasio would approve for this roster. Bullpen: Morrow Swarzak Neshek Taylor Williams Jeffress Suter (much better as long reliever; his numbers the third time through the batting order are atrocious; second-time-through numbers aren't very good, either, but first time through he is stellar). Last spot: Barnes/Hughes/Wang/Guerra/Jungman/Wilkerson

Watch for Quintin Berry to be called up and used almost exclusively as a pinch runner in September. They'd have to add him to the 40-man, but I think Stearns acquired him with that in mind.

See your point, brew4u, but they're already limiting Hader to 2IP per start to save his innings. And since they've done that he has been excellent. Why not have him do that in a relief role in Milwaukee now, and help shore up the bullpen?