Greenleaf1

Here are some stats for Brewers relievers in September/October. Lots of good stories here. Curious what's to be done about Knebel though. Great: - Jhan Marinez: 13 G, 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 8 SO, 1.184 WHIP - Brent Suter: 12 G (1 GS), 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 10 SO, 1.125 WHIP - Rob Scahill: 7 G, 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 5 SO, 0.808 WHIP - Carlos Torres: 12 G, 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 15 SO, 0.977 WHIP - Jacob Barnes: 11 G, 9.2 IP, 0.93 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 8 SO, 0.931 WHIP Good: - Tyler Thornburg: 11 G, 11.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 16 SO, 1.235 WHIP (rough end there, otherwise great) - Tyler Cravy: 8 G, 10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 7 SO, 0.700 WHIP (pretty great on surface, but FIP is a big outlier) Decent: - Blaine Boyer: 9 G, 7.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 3 SO, 1.435 WHIP - Corey Knebel: 13 G, 11.1 IP, 5.56 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 11 SO, 1.324 WHIP (opposite of Cravy, hopefully sign of bad luck) Blazek gave up a run in 1 inning, Ben Rowen had a 15.00 ERA in 3 innings, Magnifico gave up a run in 1 inning, so not really much to discuss for those guys. For the most part, the bullpen was fantastic.

Villar has been playing a good amount of 2nd base lately, that seems like an indicator that the Brewers are thinking of moving him there next year. If that happens, Gennett is gone no matter what. He's also due a bump in pay, so I can't imagine we'd pay him more to ride the bench. It's possible he returns as a platoon at 2nd, but I think we try to find him another home this offseason.

Here's some numbers of Brewers starting pitchers in September. I have Jungmann in here, and will put Suter in with relievers in a separate post, since the majority of their innings came as starter/reliever, respectively. Ranking these in order of best to worst (in my opinion): 1. Wily Peralta: 31.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 24 SO, 1.17 WHIP 2. Zach Davies: 24.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 18 SO, 1.208 WHIP 3. Chase Anderson: 27.1 IP, 1.98 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 17 SO, 1.21 WHIP 4. Junior Guerra: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 10 SO, 1.40 WHIP 5. Matt Garza: 21.0 IP, 4.29 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 14 SO, 1.43 WHIP 6. Taylor Jungmann: 6.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 5 SO, 1.17 WHIP (1 start, 2 relief appearances) 7. Jimmy Nelson: 27.2 IP, 5.53 ERA, 6.04 FIP, 23 SO, 1.554 WHIP Pretty strong finish for most. I told my dad a few weeks ago that I thought it was entirely possible that Wily Peralta could be the opening day starter in 2017, and I still think it's possible. Probably whoever is pitching best between Peralta/Davies/Guerra is going to get it. Much better position than I thought we'd be in several months ago.

I was curious to see how a lot of hitters finished since so many of them are young with room for improvement and may have had some long stretches of failure before success (Broxton/Arcia), so just wanted to see how they finished. Here's a list: Impressive: - Keon Broxton: .311/.380/.556 in 13 games (50 PA), 3 HR, 4/7 SB - Chris Carter: .232/.328/.586 in 29 games (116 PA), 11 HR - Jonathan Villar: .227/.333/.536 in 28 games (115 PA), 8 HR, 12/14 SB - Domingo Santana: .289/.343/.557 in 26 games (105 PA), 7 HR, 2/2 SB Solid (or Expected but not overly Impressive): - Ryan Braun: .273/.323/.511 in 23 games (96 PA), 6 HR, 2/4 SB - Scooter Gennett: .263/.322/.513 in 26 games (88 PA), 4 HR - Orlando Arcia: .245/.286/.406 in 28 games (112 PA), 2 HR, 5/5 SB Not Great: - Hernan Perez: .267/.294/.343 in 28 games (109 PA), 0 HR, 8/11 SB - Manny Pina: .222/.300/.333 in 16 games (40 PA), 1 HR Susac did ok but only had 19 PA (.789 OPS, 1 big homer). Maldonado was average Maldonado (.685 OPS, 2 HR) Reed (.432), Rivera (.572), Nieuwenhuis (.406) didn't do much in limited playing time but I won't exactly hold that against them since they all at least provided good defense. I put Arcia in solid even though his numbers are comparable to Perez just due to expectation, and Arcia providing more value on defense at a premium position. He's also still getting accustomed to the big leagues, and his .406 SLG plus 5/5 in stolen bases was pretty good for him. He's still on the verge between solid and not great, but I like his chances to improve next year. Hoping that all 4 impressive guys can keep it up next year, they should be big parts of the team next year. Scooter finished strong and will hopefully be providing value to some other team next year.

There are very few certainties in life, things you can absolutely count on. But Clancy never fails to deliver. Year Tm Lg Age Pos G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld% Rtot Rdrs Rtot/yr Rdrs/yr RF/9 RF/G lgFld% lgRF9 lgRFG 2007 MIL NL 23 3B 112 112 89 945.1 248 61 161 26 12 .895 -35 -32 -45 -41 2.11 1.98 .954 2.68 2.67 http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/54599/who-had-the-worst-defensive-season-ever Let the record show that despite the way the quote looks above, there's no way I ever suggested that Braun should be shifted back to 3rd base.

My original post also neglected that Cordell needs to be added to the 40-man this winter. I'm sure there's someone else we could take off easily enough to make room for him though, or just put him on the 40-man instead of one of Wren/Orf/Cooper.

If we go 2-1 and the Angels go 0-3 we'll have a better record than them too. Agreed though, essentially if we lose 1 game this weekend we're very likely to be #9.

Thanks for actually taking my original post seriously, guys. You're all my people. Having a ton of fun posting in and reading this forum lately. Something I'd actually change about my first post: it wouldn't surprise me if we acquire an infielder to start at 3rd base next year, either with the hope of flipping or as a potential long term solution there. Perez fits better as a super utility guy and since there's nobody really coming up at that position from the minors anytime soon, I don't know if they'd want Perez to be starting every day at 3rd.

I absolutely laughed out loud at this.

I see a lot of stuff in the replies here that I agree with. Guerra will be tough to trade this offseason for what we perceive his full value to be. But the starting pitching market is SO thin this offseason that trades are going to be a necessity for teams that need good arms. This might trump up Guerra's value to where we can get a top 100 prospect for him plus one or two other reasonable guys, which I think would be a fair value for him (I'm basically treating Guerra's value as 2 more dirt cheap but productive seasons, which his arby years being very much at risk because of his age and no history of good performance). Garza has more or less performed like a #5 pitcher this year. He could be cheap to a team without a lot of money to spend if we throw in cash, plus he'd have a pretty reasonable option for 2018 as well. I'm not saying we'd get back a premium prospect, but I still think there's a market for Garza this offseason. I also think, given the thin market, our overabundance of arms competing for the rotation next year (which, at a minimum, is 8 with Guerra/Nelson/Peralta/Davies/Anderson/Garza/Suter/Jungmann, plus maybe McCarthy if we trade Braun) along with several prospects who could be looking to get some starts later in the year (Hader, and maybe even Woodruff/Ortiz), we are in a state where it makes such perfect sense to deal a starter or two and get good value for them that I don't see how we couldn't do it. I think, unless some team is willing to drastically overpay, that Davies/Peralta/Nelson are very unlikely to be traded (all for different reasons), but Guerra/Garza/Anderson all seem likely to be part of a lot of trade talks this offseason. As for protecting other players from Rule 5, I more or less was being conservative so as to not expose players unnecessarily to waivers, but Adrian Houser and Sean Nolin both seem like good DFA candidates given their long recovery times from surgery (I'm sure Nolin will still be a ways out from any chance of returning by start of next year, and it wouldn't be a huge loss to lose him anyways), and maybe Barrios too if he isn't recovering. Also, is it possible I'm targeting the wrong catcher for a trade in Maldonado? I like Pina and wouldn't want to see him go, but Maldonado/Susac could probably handle catcher next year and if someone was willing to overpay for him like the Pirates did for Jason Rogers, that might be an interesting trade too. Any teams out there that might be desperate enough at catcher to do something like that (obviously I hate the idea of trading with the Mets at this point but they seem like a pretty clear option here).

My dad asked me if I was going to try to predict the 25-man opening day roster for next year soon, which I'm well aware is like predicting if it's going to rain next April, but I thought I'd have some fun with it and try to approach it from what moves I'd make during the offseason if I were DS. These predictions more or less rely on a few assumptions: that there won't be any over- or under-performers in spring training, no major injuries, and that we get good value back in trades for players that I'd like to shop this offseason. I also didn't really bother to look at specific free agents or trade targets that would help the major league team for opening day 2017. What do you guys think? What are your (way too early) initial thoughts leading into 2017? Lose to Free Agency: Blaine Boyer, Chris Capuano Trade: Scooter Gennett, Martin Maldonado, Carlos Torres, Junior Guerra, Matt Garza (I'll assume for this exercise that we find good trades for all of these guys, and that none of them involve players that would need to be added to the 40-man roster, otherwise this just gets confusing). Players to Add to 40-man: Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Josh Hader, Wei-Chung Wang, Kyle Wren, Nate Orf, Garrett Cooper Players from 60-day DL added back to 40-man: Rymer Liriano, Yhonathan Barrios, Sean Nolin Players to remove from 40-man: Garin Cecchini, David Goforth, Andy Wilkins, Jake Elmore, Ben Rowen 25-man Roster: SP Zach Davies SP Wily Peralta SP Jimmy Nelson SP Chase Anderson SP Brent Suter RP Tyler Thornburg RP Corey Knebel RP Jacob Barnes RP Jhan Marinez RP Tyler Cravy RP Michael Blazek RP I'll cheat here a little and say that I would sign a bunch of bounceback candidates to minor league deals with invites to spring training and choose whoever does best (probably a lefty since I've moved Suter to the rotation). To make room on the 40-man, I'll DFA Rob Scahill (unless he's the guy that makes the team I guess). Starting regulars: C Manny Pina 1B Chris Carter 2B Jonathan Villar SS Orlando Arcia 3B Hernan Perez LF Ryan Braun CF Keon Broxton RF Domingo Santana Bench: C Andrew Susac OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis C/1B Josmil Pinto IF Yadiel Rivera OF Kyle Wren I don't see us making any free agent signings in the offseason to guaranteed contracts (we only had one last offseason: Chris Carter), but probably lots of minor league deals, mostly relievers but probably some potential bench bats too. I really wouldn't be surprised if we were active traders this offseason if we're getting good offers. We have a lot of guys worth trading if we can find the right teams to take them. I also didn't even want to try to figure out what the 25-man would look like if we traded Ryan Braun, so I just assumed he'd be back. If he does get traded, then I guess I'll say Puig starting in RF and Santana in LF, McCarthy in the rotation instead of Suter, and move Suter to the bullpen. Braun/Puig can swap spots on the 40-man, and McCarthy can take the 40-man spot of the mystery reliever that Suter is bumping by moving back to the bullpen.

Everyone seems to be happy with our drafts lately. Anything to keep the guys responsible happy and with the organization sounds good to me.

But you just said you'd be taking him for free.

For what it's worth, both Davies and Guerra started the year at Colorado Springs. They weren't there long, but Guerra struggled, Davies didn't. When Davies was called up, he struggled for a bit and figured it out. Guerra came up and was, for the most part, pretty good right away. Peralta struggled mightily in the majors, then was no better at CS, at least results wise. Obviously he had made some improvements as evidenced by how he looks like an entirely different guy now, but the results at CS were still bad. CS will affect every player differently, but I can't help but wonder if the increased difficulties at CS might not help a little bit for pitchers to prepare for the dramatic increase in difficulty that it is between pitching to AAA hitters and pitching to big league hitters. I still think we're better off getting out of Colorado Springs, but Jungmann was struggling before getting sent down, and Lopez could've just had a bad year (he still struggled a lot after his demotion to AA, and he struggled on the road in AAA too).

Milwaukee IS the smallest market in baseball. We are going to have to work harder than every other team in order to get stuff done, this just might be one of those things that escapes us as a small market team. We don't have the budget to just throw money at minor league stadiums (maybe, I don't know). Personally I hope we just buy the Carolina Mudcats and be done with it. Having to deal with Lancaster/Springs becomes a two-front war that we'll spend years trying to get out of. Don't make the same mistake twice if we can avoid it. We locked up Biloxi long(ish) term, I'm sure we're set in Appleton, we should lock up our High A team so that we can devote all of our attention to getting the hell out of Colorado Springs in 2 years. Of course, I can't imagine there's any way the organization isn't thinking the same thing, so this might just be one of those cases where if we had all the information we'd understand why we're in the situation we're in.

Suter has definitely earned a second start after his stellar work in the bullpen. Hoping he can do well in Colorado (he's obviously used to pitching in those conditions). Kind of strangely poetic that Jungmann gets bumped from pitching in Colorado and Suter gets his spot. Wait, is poetic the right way to put it? No, more like of course they did this and I'm surprised they were ever going to put Jungmann in that situation in the first place, this makes way more sense.

Agreed with previous poster that I hope this is something similar to what they have in St. Louis. That area is really excellent and after talking with fans there a couple years ago it seems like they really enjoy having it there. I see no reason to build parking ramps, since I've never ever had trouble getting parking at Miller Park. I would guess that this is some sort of pre-game experience thing to generate revenue.

This is where I have a problem with your post. Susac and Pina are both Stearns acquisitions, which means DS or someone in the FO that he trusts likes them. Neither has been given enough playing time yet to say anything for sure, but they're both cheap, controllable, and already capable of performing at a comparable level to McCann, who we'd have to pay more for less control and also give up something. There's just no logic to giving up on two guys who are nothing but upside. Also, in limited starts, Pina has actually been doing pretty well after a year of mashing at AAA. At this point we have two guys who are Major League ready, performing at an average level with the (outside) possibility of more, and we need to give them the playing time next year to figure out what kind of talent they really have. Acquiring McCann makes absolutely no sense from any perspective other than an Aaron Hill-like salary dump that would also net us a top prospect as long as we take McCann's contract, and then hope that we can somehow rehabilitate him and dump him at the trade deadline. It was a miracle we pulled that off with Aaron Hill, but at least we got Isan Diaz and Chase Anderson in that trade, and we honestly didn't take on that much of Hill's contract when you factor in how much Segura would've got. That trade came together from our desire to get rid of Segura, we gave up something of value. If the Yankees want to give us a great prospect and McCann (minus most of his salary) for Scooter Gennett or Carlos Torres then I'll listen, but I don't see that happening.

From the very first post in this thread.

Wouldn't this, in fact, be a bidding war? Carolina is looking to sell controlling interest in the team, so the Brewers and Rockies have to buy the team if they want to go to Carolina right? So money is on the table?

For what it's worth, Braun confirmed after the game yesterday that he was "very close" to getting traded, so that secondary report that said a deal wasn't that close seems to be inaccurate. Braun also said he thought it was unlikely he'd be traded this offseason but that it was more likely than it has been at any other time in his career. I feel like, same as Attanasio, anything they talk about in the past you can accept that they probably don't have reason to lie, but anything in the future they are probably just hedging. Still think a deal with the Dodgers comes together before the calendar turns to 2017.

The smiley face on my post meant I was kidding around. Ahhh. Gotcha

Leaving aside the fact that clutch hitting seems to not even be a thing, solo home runs alone determines nothing. Without guys on base you're probably free to swing for the fences a bit more, whereas you can score runs in many more ways than a home run with guys on base. Also, you could never hit a home run with guys on base and still get way more RBIs than if you hit all your homers with guys on base. Fangraphs has a clutch statistic. Davis is -0.09 this year, which is slightly below average (0 would be average obviously). He has varied in that stat over the years. When people started taking notice of him in 2013, he actually had his career-worst clutch rating of -0.75 (between "below average" and "poor"). The next year he was 0.33, then last year he was -0.26. However, by comparison, Carter's rating this year is -1.35, which ranks between "Poor" and "Awful". He wasn't any better in 2015, but in 2014 he was 1.21, which ranks between "Great" and "Excellent". So, small sample size of two players over a couple years, but the inconsistency in their stats does seem to suggest that "clutch hitting" is not nearly as much of a thing as people act like it is. There's also this: http://research.sabr.org/journals/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting

The second half of 2016 is making me realize how nice it is to have a good pitching coach. After watching talented pitchers struggle for years under Kranitz (and then often leave and do better elsewhere...I'm looking at you Marco), it's awesome to see a group of struggling pitchers actually get better and make adjustments and see the results. I like seeing this evidence of change to indicate that his improved performance isn't just a fluke. Obviously we'll have to keep watching to see if he can carry it over into next season, but Anderson could be really valuable as a #5 guy for years to come, taking pressure off the rest of the rotation to have to go out and win every time.

Our outfield was just simply terrible for long stretches this year, but most of that was due to guys in placeholder roles waiting for our prospects to be ready and break out. Kirk Nieuwenhuis is a perfectly valid 4th OF, but was spending way too much time in the field, and don't get me started on Ramon Flores. Luckily, with Broxton and Santana breaking out, our 2017 outfield is a place to dream on. Our #2/#3/#4 hitters next year could be our outfield (Broxton/Braun/Santana, or even Broxton/Brinson/Santana possibly.....maybe Santana bats 5th but I think he could make a great cleanup hitter), what a turnaround that would be from this year.