Greenleaf1

Just a reminder that Perez hasn't hit a home run in a month and still hardly walks at all. His OPS is about that of Scooter Gennett. I like Perez and he has a lot of value in his defensive versatility, but if he can't achieve some consistency at the plate and walk a little more, he'll never be more than just a versatile backup. Please don't take this as me dumping on Perez. This was his best season yet by far and with this season under his belt, I could definitely see him improving into next year, but I just ask that people don't mark him down on the 2017 roster anywhere but the bench, because right now that's where he has most value.

I always viewed Khris Davis as an above average player with lots of flaws. I was always baffled by how much in-game power he could show for such a little guy who can't throw the ball at all. His arm is one of the worst in left field I've seen for a non-DH, but I always thought of him as a better fielder than he was given credit for, he seemed to have decent enough range in left field, but I don't have stats to back that up that's just my feeling from watching him play for a couple years. I would say Ryan Braun is a much better left fielder in every respect over Davis though. Davis was always interesting to me as a unique combination of OBP and SLG. His AVG was always below average, but if he was capable of batting .250/.340/.450, I knew he'd be a valuable member of the team even with some defensive liability (which, I will say, his arm did get a little better after that first year where he was oh so terrible. I could never imagine why a runner would stop at 3rd on a base hit to left field, he never would've gotten them). This year he's .250/.307/.529 for an OPS of .836. In addition, his OPS+ is the highest of his career. He's no doubt mostly living up to what I consider his potential to be, but I don't think this was a breakout year for him because he more or less did the exact same numbers last year (.247/.323/.505). Domingo Santana showed at the end of last year that he was capable of matching those numbers in 2016. He got off to a slow start and had injury problems, but Santana's potential ceiling is higher than Davis's both on offense and defense, he is cheaper with more years of control than Davis, and was flashing talent enough to show that his odds of hitting his ceiling were pretty likely (killed AAA, walked a ton after getting called up and hit a good amount of homers). I don't see much of an argument against clearing a spot for Santana by trading Davis. The only real question to me is if Davis netted a big enough return. I think so far the return doesn't look THAT great, but Nottingham has plenty of time, and even though Derby didn't work out as a starter this year he could transition to being a very useful bullpen arm and at the time we traded for him he was coming off a rookie campaign with a 1.21 ERA. And he was the throw in! Maybe the prospects don't work out, but to me that's always been like saying you were right to play a hand in Texas Hold Em because you lucked out on the river and made your hand and won. With prospects of course you'd rather be lucky than good, but getting two prospects of that caliber for a player who had essentially become outfield depth for us was a pretty good trade. Stearns has made a lot of moves already and, on average, his success level per move has got to be a lot higher as of today than most other GM's this year. In 3 years, Jacob Nottingham might be our starting catcher and Isan Diaz might be hitting home runs in Japan for all we know. That's certainly not the most likely of scenarios but how would you feel about each trade we made then? If trading established players for prospects was a sure thing then no team would ever trade their prospects. I thought the deal was pretty good at the time and I still do, and I will even if Nottingham/Derby both wash out and never make it to the majors. You win some, you lose some. As of right now, the acquisitions of Villar/Diaz/Broxton/Supak/Brinson/Ortiz/Cordell/Bickford/Susac/Peralta far outweigh the bad performances of a couple prospects. DS has a pretty good record so far of trades, even if you're only judging based on 2016 success of players/prospects.

Moved into the #9 slot as of last night's loss and Phillies win.

Back to the topic of the post. Broxton has looked very good in CF this year, but the MLB writeup on Brinson mentions that his glove is likely to prop up his floor, so he must be at least somewhat renown for his defense in center field. If Brinson is called up midseason and both he and Broxton are performing, it's very possible that they split time between center and right to see who does best there.

He's played almost every day all season, wouldn't surprise me if he was just a little worn down. Might also be a little preoccupied with his desire to get on base and get more stolen bases. We'll see how he starts next year.

Pinto could be a contender for 1B next year if we trade Carter. Could also be a useful power bat off the bench and emergency catcher. Similar to Pina, he played too well at AAA this year to not get a shot. I can't imagine he'll get much playing time but also wouldn't surprise me if he got a start or two at 1B before the end of the season. Congrats Josmil!

This is a truly awful development for the Brewers minor league system. On the bright side, Isan Diaz and Lucas Erceg are going to mash again next year.

Well for those who have been wanting the Brewers to lose more to get a higher draft pick, losing Broxton for the rest of the year will certainly help with that. Really hoping he's not hurt too badly.

Arcia's last 22 games (including his homer today), 80 PA, .301/.363/.562, 10 XBH (including 4 homers), 12 RBI, 22.5 K%, 8.75 BB%.....guess his slow start didn't last that long.....

Trading young, controllable players with real potential for prospects is just not likely to happen during a rebuild. Trades for guys like Arcia/Villar/Broxton/Santana would have to be overwhelming. I'm talking returns of 3 or 4 guys, with either top prospects or major league talent included, otherwise there is absolutely no reason to get rid of guys with All Star potential and years of cheap control. We're incredibly lucky that Stearns has made good so far, but don't count on that happening every year with the same frequency. I don't see us trading any top prospects unless it's a 2 for 1 scenario and the return is substantial. For example, I don't think Brett Phillips is going anywhere. Players with relatively unproven track histories like Guerra/Thornburg seem unlikely to get their full value in a trade unless they can show success again next year. They both seem like trade candidates at the deadline next year unless someone gets desperate during the offseason. Gennett has no place on the team next year, I think he gets dealt somewhere, maybe packaged along with some high floor, low ceiling prospect like Kyle Wren. Braun is likely getting traded to the Dodgers I would think. But I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't. So 50/50 there? If he doesn't get traded this offseason, I wouldn't count on him getting traded for several years, unless we get insanely lucky and all our top OF prospects turn into all stars. Carlos Torres seems like a perfect guy to deal this offseason. We have several guys proving their worth in the bullpen (Marinez, Suter, Cravy), plus probably Jungmann or some other starter-type will make the bullpen as a long man. Might as well deal from an area of depth, and Torres seems likeliest to get the biggest return short of Thornburg. Could see him getting us a couple mid level prospects. Someone from the 6-man starting rotation right now is getting traded for sure. Not sure if it's Guerra, Garza, Anderson, or maybe even Peralta, but someone's gotta go, maybe even more than one. This seems like the most likely trade of the offseason. I'd keep Chris Carter and Hernan Perez for now. Nobody's knocking down the door to take their spots, and they're productive but probably undervalued on the trade market. My guess is we try to trade Nieuwenhuis and Maldonado, but both are hitting arbitration and will probably get non tendered if we can't trade them (unless we decide to start Susac at AAA, but eventually we'll have 2 spots for 3 catchers and I'd much rather have Pina/Susac).

Brandon Woodruff just led the minor leagues in strikeouts, throws 95-96 regularly, and is probably headed for AAA next year. How the hell is he a lottery ticket? Dodgers aren't likely to give up their top 2 prospects for anyone. I don't think there was a single deal this year where a team gave up their top 2 prospects for anyone, let alone 2 as highly regarded as Bellinger/De Leon. Scooter has value for a team that's looking to kick the can down the road a few years to their next 2B prospect being ready, or if they want to spend money elsewhere and are content with a below average 2B with the potential to be an average 2B for relatively little cost for a few years. I think Braun/Gennett should be enough to yield Puig/McCarthy/De Leon/one other middle prospect, but I don't see the Dodgers giving up two near sure things (De Leon/Bellinger) for an aging, relatively high priced slugger and a below average 2nd basemen, even if you threw in another reasonable prospect (NOT Woodruff, we're not letting our minor league pitcher of the year go during a rebuild). Braun for McCarthy/Bellinger and that's it? Maybe. But Puig/McCarthy do add value for the Brewers even during a rebuild, so the Dodgers aren't likely to pile on top prospects. I think a more than fair trade to both sides would be Braun/Gennett for Puig/McCarthy/De Leon/some #10-#20 prospect (not that familiar with the Dodgers lower prospects).

He's still young and I don't ever recall his scouting report mentioning poor defense in the minor leagues. Given the fact that he has less than a year of major league service time, I'm still hoping he has the ability to improve his defense, although I have no idea how likely that is statistically. If we keep Braun, moving to 1B would help his value tremendously so he can stay in the lineup more often. If we trade Braun, I'd say he slots into LF next year quite nicely, with Broxton in CF and eventually Brinson in RF. Once more prospects develop, maybe Phillips by 2018, it would benefit Santana to consider 1B for sure. Next year could be a great low stress way for him to gain some reps there, maybe an occasional start, before more playing time there would be required in the future for him to stay in the lineup.

I think the roster spot it would eat up is just too difficult to deal with. You're either dealing with a 4-man bench or a 6-man bullpen, both seem like bad options when we have young players that could use that spot. I think this is one of those things that resolves itself in the offseason though. Given the weak FA market for starting pitching, I'd be incredibly surprised if we don't deal one or more of Guerra/Garza/Anderson this offseason. Assuming Jungmann gets a start at the end here (I think he will) and does well, you've got him and Suter getting looks in Spring Training for the rotation. Hader should be up at some point next year, probably midseason if he starts the year well, and if Ortiz/Woodruff have strong years next year they'll be knocking on the door by the end of the year. We need to start clearing space in the rotation anyways, so I'd expect a trade or two this offseason to clear up this issue.

How on earth is Preller going to get away with a 30-day suspension and that's it? More importantly, how is this not going to result in the undoing of every trade the Padres have made this year? I feel like even if the Padres let him stick around, no GM is going to want to do business with him. I certainly hope the Brewers aren't planning any trades with the Padres anytime soon. http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2016/9/15/12934370/padres-gm-aj-preller-suspended-mlb?utm_campaign=mlbdailydish&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/why-you-cant-subtract-fip-from-era/ It might be indicative of some luck, but it's not at all unreasonable to think that Guerra could be in the 3.20-3.50 ERA next year. Is it as good as this year? No. Is he our next ace? No, but I definitely wouldn't have ever argued that he was going to be.

He had a 12.4% walk rate last year, which is pretty great. 12.6% this season, even better. Whatever you want to call it, I was referring to his ability to take walks and get on base, even when his batting average was lower. Strikeouts are only an indicator of poor plate discipline if he's swinging at tons of pitches out of the zone, which according to FanGraphs he's well below league average in O-Swing%. Failure to hit pitches that are in the strike zone is a different issue, which explains his lower batting average last year, but it's already coming up this year and his strikeout percentage is down a few ticks even despite battling injuries.

Guerra's BAbip is .250, FIP is 3.70, which are not indicative of all THAT much luck with his current production this year. Plus he may be 31 years old but he's still a rookie and has the potential to improve on things he's done this year with more experience. I do think that due to his age he's probably not going to make it to free agency in 5 more years and still be a great pitcher though. My guess is that people looking to trade for him would be hoping for a strong #3/#4 pitcher making the league minimum for two more years, and if he doesn't work out then you would just non-tender him. There's a huge amount of value in that assessment, with plenty of potential for more if he continues to succeed against the odds. However, I don't think that projection fits well with the Brewers rebuild, so I would be looking to really maximize the return we could get for him. If he continues to pitch this well for another half a season, then trade deadline 2017 seems like the best time to trade him. However, if we get a great offer for him this offseason I would definitely take it. We have enough young pitchers coming up in the pipeline (not to mention 6 or 7 who are already competing for starts at the major league level as it is), that we'd be dealing from a position of relative depth and turning a 31 year old rookie waiver claim into legitimate prospects would be an opportunity too good to pass up in my opinion. Meanwhile I'll just continue to pray every time he pitches that he doesn't have a massive blow up and give up 8 ER, or worse, blow out his shoulder from throwing that split-fingered fastball.

If they do it for 1 year or 2 would they be considered a star? Honest question. I think he will be productive with a few great years. That was kind of my point in using the OPS numbers. I didnt mean to imply otherwise. I guess that's subjective. It depends on when those years would be, and I'm definitely not the best person to assess someone's capability for longevity. Santana is still pretty young though and even in a struggling year with injuries he has a .790 OPS in 61 games and has shown improvement in AVG/OBP/SLG over last year, having just turned 24 years old. I think if he stays healthy and gets regular playing time next year, we will get a good idea of what his actual production will be. If he can continue to improve when healthy and stay at around .800 OPS next year, we're going to have to find playing time for him. Now as for whether that makes him a star? Maybe that word is a bit strong, since Corey Hart certainly never got much national attention despite being very good during our playoff years, but I think Santana could grow into a much loved player in Milwaukee doing not much more than what he's already doing. He's got loads of potential, I just hope he can live up to it.

Agreed that Hart is a great comp. Hart might've been a little better in his prime than I'd expect from Santana due to his speed. From 2007-2012, Hart with Milwaukee: .277/.335/.495 (.830 OPS), averaged 139 games, 24 HR, 78 RBI, 13 SB per season during that time. That's a lot to project a player to be, but I think Santana has a good chance at getting close to that. If, like Hart, he could start learning to play 1B and play there from time to time once more of our OF prospects get called up that would certainly help his value.

Only 34 players in the Major Leagues have an .850 OPS this year. .850 OPS is a star.

Yeah we already took two of the guys we would be interested in from the Giants. It would be hard to believe that we'd trade Braun away and not even get a prospect as highly regarded as the one we got for Will Smith.

Not sure exactly what the situation with Santana has been since his return. Part of me thinks he is getting less playing time because of what seems like an attitude issue and the fact that he just wasn't performing well enough to guarantee himself a spot in the lineup. Whatever the case may be, making him earn playing time seems to be working. Since returning to the Brewers on August 19th: 21 G (14 GS), 64 PA, .304/.375/.536, 4 HR Those numbers look even better in September: 10 G (9 GS), 38 PA, .343/.395/.686, 4 HR, 9 RBI I really liked Santana at the end of last year. Great plate discipline and lots of power. If he can start hitting for average and improve his defense a little, he could be a star. I think he also stands out as a great option for LF next year if we trade Braun. Very small sample size coming off the DL, but hey hitting a ton in a small sample size is better than not hitting at all in a small sample size. Hoping he can finish the season strong and carry over that success into next year.

About Chris Carter, to quote Moneyball: he gets on base, do I care if it's a walk or a hit? I do not. 2016 Chris Carter OPS: .814 2016 Khris Davis OPS: .816 LF/DH and 1B have pretty similar profiles. Offense first players that provide power. It's a very apt comparison.

To be fair, this in no way affected the outcome of the play. Doesn't look like the guy at 2nd slowed down his throw at all and he was still there to catch the ball at 1st, guy would've been safe anyway, but that is a very weird situation and I don't blame Hurdle for getting ejected because [expletive deleted by moderator] was that ump doing.

Sorry to those saying nobody wants Braun's contract, but if Braun was a FA after this year, he'd be getting a contract bigger than what he already has. Just because we're offsetting cost in the trade doesn't mean nobody wants Braun's contract. It just means it isn't worth it to pay his entire contract (which is a fair deal for a great player) AND give up top quality prospects.