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balsamlaker

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Everything posted by balsamlaker

  1. balsamlaker
    Hard to blame the kid (Knaak) or family on this one unless they sought out Clemson after agreeing to the deal with Milwaukee. Where he was drafted and what he was going to get offered was not a huge surprise. The Clemson folks could have put their offer together before the draft and no one would have been the wiser and the Brewers would have taken someone else (maybe even his teammate - LeGuemic).
  2. balsamlaker
    Great to see Maiorana sign! When Hart's $ number came in and there was still space, I had hope another one was coming as sometimes the Brewers come within dollars of maxing their 105% and it looks like they did it again this year. I agree with Narwhal's take that this seems like a shortsighted move for the Clemson program that had a really tough year in the ACC last year.
  3. balsamlaker
    It is hard to blame NIL on this one, as no other college player in the top 10 rounds is doing this same "strategy".
  4. balsamlaker
    I agree with CheeseheadInQC (and not just because I was in the Quad Cities last weekend). You (the Brewers) don't take a risk in the 5th round, as there is no reward other than saving money. Unless Knaak has a great personal and/or academic reason, I do not get this decision from a professional standpoint. The Brewers have been described as a "pitching factory" and he has regressed during his time at Clemson. Secondly, when the draft comes around next year, he will be close to 23 y/o. Looking at this year's top five rounds, only two players were this age that were selected in the top 5 rounds. Riojas was taken in the third and signed for under 80% of the pick slot and Jelkin was taken in the compensatory round after the fourth and signed for around pick value. Since I always thought Knaak was signing around slot value, it only costs you about $20,000 more in signing your other picks.
  5. balsamlaker
    With the Brewers current strategy, there are always going to be some players that sign for big money in following years, but for every Cijntje, Hajjar, or Workman there seems to be 5-10 drafted players by the team that don't get redrafted. Regarding Coil, he probably wasn't getting more than 150K this year and maybe still gets it next year like Parker did this year after passing on the Brewers last year.
  6. balsamlaker
    I get the point of not liking leaving money on the table, but if Holden would have signed for just over a million or Roupe and him would have split the money left, I wouldn't have blinked an eye.
  7. balsamlaker
    Shout out to the SE area scouts for securing three late round picks.
  8. balsamlaker
    Any chance any of the 2025 group went over the $150K threshold? I feel like Bonet may be the strongest sign at this point.
  9. balsamlaker
    Is there money for Roupe and another?
  10. balsamlaker
    Parker got the $150K this year that likely he would have been offered last year.
  11. balsamlaker
    Is everyone ready for "Brewers Day" otherwise known as the draft signings deadline day? The Brewers unique strategy they have used over the last number of years makes them the focus of the deadline. Annually only about 5-10 players in rounds 11-20 sign for over $500K and the Brewers tend to have about a quarter of them.
  12. balsamlaker
    If the past is a predictor, the remaining picks likely aren't announced until Monday. Sign on the line high schoolers and hang around to watch Miz pitch against the Cubs. Sounds like a great day!
  13. balsamlaker
    Disappointing to see Underwood not coming to Milwaukee, but still a number of lottery tickets out there to throw money at. Roupe, if the signing is confirmed, could be getting a chunk as he was definitely one of the top high school prospects in SC.
  14. balsamlaker
    I would agree that Bentley and Holden are likely backup plans, but sometimes backup plans happen. There were probably a number of players in recent memory that may have been the same - Dubanewicz and Renz last year probably got Levonas' overslot amount and a combination of Vire, Low, and Avina probably got Riggio's overslot in 2021. The impressive thing is they are carrying a larger number ($) to the second half of the draft this year after signing the entire first half (don't have the Levonas' overslot coming down).
  15. balsamlaker
    Hayden wasn't considered a top-300 prospect, so it isn't shocking although I thought being a high schooler would get him a little closer to slot. Basically a player that the Brewers gave a 11th - 20th round grade to which is fair with the $150K signing figure, but made a priority for them drafting him in the first ten rounds.
  16. balsamlaker
    I would expect expect the majority, if not all of, the signings will be announced tomorrow with the team waiting until the start of the first homestead after the draft. The fact that only one pick has come out saying they are confirming their commitment to their college is a good sign. I would expect Underwood would be the most expensive, but am excited to see what they do. They usually do their entire amount + the 5%.
  17. balsamlaker
    At this point (and I could be proven wrong today) I would expect most of the signings to be released as the Brewers open up this weekend's homestand.
  18. balsamlaker
    It wouldn't be shocking to see the Angels copying the Brewers "model" with the number of Brewers front office connections currently with the Angels. A lot of it also may be becoming more analytical. I don't know if the "numbers" still show it, but a SABR article from six or so years ago basically said college bats are always good bets and you should switch from college arms to high school / juco arms after the first round or so.
  19. balsamlaker
    The Brewers reputation for developing pitchers is likely a positive for many of these draftees and UDFAs. For those that haven't been around as long, this is a completely different reputation than the team had prior to the Derek Johnson / Chris Hook days.
  20. balsamlaker
    I have been following the draft, including on this site, for roughly 20 years. This may be my favorite collection of prospects the brewers have drafted in one draft (I also very much liked the 2020 shortened draft). You don't have a top 20 type of player, but a number of prospects that have a chance to make it to the major leagues.
  21. balsamlaker
    I think 2.1 through 9 are all going to be close to slot. The three high schoolers in that range all went above projections which probably keep them closer to slot. I would expect that Ebel would be closer to the 75% also.
  22. balsamlaker
    It would be fascinating to know of the financial discussions that go on before and during the draft. If you want to "save money" for later, you have to do it with your top couple of picks the way the slots are. It wouldn't be surprising to me that teams develop their draft board and then go down their list seeing who will sign for 75% in those top couple of picks allowing the team to save some money for later "lottery picks". Other than the year Frelick fell to them, this seems to be the process that the Brewers use and it seems to be working lately.
  23. balsamlaker
    One thing to keep in mind when you compare draft rankings to where a player is drafted if roughly 1/4 of the top ranked players each year are not drafted or don't sign, so for example a player that has a draft ranking of 250 is realistically more like 185 out of signable players. I am not sure there is a large amount of savings other than the top two picks and the senior sign in the tenth round.
  24. balsamlaker
    With the first dozen picks, I don't see an obvious big overslot pick, so the Brewers may have close to $2 million to spend still above the $150K's in the next ten picks.
  25. balsamlaker
    Typically the Brewers have a level of confidence in their players signing in rounds 11-13 although sometimes it falls through (Riggio) similar to the case with Levonas last year. Sometimes those players are in the $150K range and sometimes they are the "big swings". Usually a couple of picks later are ones that are "backup" plans. These are needed when some of the higher risk picks don't come through earlier.
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