Lathund

I'd be more concerned if it was the other way around tbh, as in the change being dependent on batting average or HR rate. Someone taking (a lot) more walks (and striking out less too) will be due to a change in approach. An increase in batting average could be due to an improvement in their game (Hitting the ball harder, changed oppo/pull% etc), or it could be due to the randomness that still exists in batted ball success even after 5-600 plate appearances, or changes in the baseball. Grandal walked more, struck out less, and hit the ball harder than he had in the past couple of seasons. Also had fewer PB/WP than in the past which is an often cited weakness of his. There's always the possibility that he'll decline of course, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest that the decline has already started. Chronological age is also only a proxy for what actually matters, which is biological aging. There's obviously a high degree of correlation between the two, but that's not to say all 31 year olds should be treated the same. Hopefully the coaching and training staff will have a decent idea of where Grandal might end up on that spectrum, and that can help inform their decision. Also in regards to Cain who has been discussed in some earlier posts, I'm not overly concerned either. Will he repeat 2018? Probably not. But in 2019 he actually hit the ball harder (Both in terms of EV and hard hit %) than in 2018 and still played excellent defense. Yet that resulted in a .357 BABIP last year, and a .301 BABIP this year; neither of which is likely to be representative of who he is. K% and BB% were a bit worse, but were in line with his career numbers. It's fair to expect some decline over the coming seasons, but I also don't think that 2019 is his true level or the level we can expect the decline to continue from.

I like both the old color scheme and the new. Any ball in glove logo, slightly modified or not, is much better than the last one. What ends up as the official logo might not have much bearing on what's on the jerseys, and the differences in the logo isn't something that'll be really noticable on a jersey patch anyway. If the leak turns out to be accurate, I'm more then fine with that. I just wish we haven't been given hope that the BiG is coming back only to be disappointed...

At the same time though, that increased roster size reduces the need for a super utility guy. With a 4 (sometimes 5) man bench, having one player there who could play all over was sometimes necessary to cover all bases. With a 5-6 man bench that's not as necessary. Since you can split the positions you need to cover between more players, you can focus more on the hitting ability of your bench players. Wouldn't surprise me if he still got a shot somewhere, but I don't think the rosters are a big plus.

Yeah ... not gonna happen. Yeah. "Moving on" from Arcia would not be non-tendering him. It'd be him as the utility IF or getting platooned or starting the year in AAA or (unlikely as his trade value must be rock bottom) being traded. He is not getting non-tendered.

My plan hinges a lot on the state of Travis Shaw, and whether the team thinks he has any chance of coming back to being the player he was (Or even an average 3B). From the outside, it's hard to know what's up with him. Presumably the Brewers have a better idea; is it physical, mental or mechanical? And is it fixable? The reason this matters is that it will be very hard to keep both Moustakas and Grandal (And strengthen elsewhere) unless payroll goes up, which I doubt it will. I used to think that while Grandal was the better player, Moose made more sense to extend, but now I'm definitely in the Grandal camp. So I'd like to see both, but if both means losing out on other well needed upgrades (Pitching, SS) then I'd chose Grandal. Going with Shaw means a higher quality pitching addition, going with Moose likely means trying to find the next Miley. So principally what I'd like to get done: Retain Grandal Re-sign Lyles, Pomeranz, maybe Gio Upgrade at SS; Market doesn't look great so this might be hard to do, but trying to do it should be a priority. I liked Miguel Rojas, but he just signed an extension. Acquire a RHH corner infielder. Perhaps David Freese if the Dodgers don't retain him. Acquire a starting pitcher who can be trusted to go deeper into games, enabling the early hooks on other days. Acquire a RH reliever is the opportunity is right. Pick up Thames option Decline Anderson's; Or trade. I've gone back and forth on this. It depends on what other pitchers can be signed. He's useful to have, and you know what you're getting with him. But I think that money can be used to improve, to help get that starter mentioned above. $8.5m is not a lot for a starter, but it is if Anderson continues to be the 4-5 inning guy he has been so far. I do think that Gerrit Cole is more likely to be a serious Stearns target than the big-name starter FAs in earlier years, because how how good he is and how (for a starter FA) young he is. But it's still not happening, so let's move on. Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu; Keuchel would be the next tier. All highly sough after. Perhaps a bit too rich, but possibilities. Odorizzi, Gibson, Miley, Roark, Wood etc: I think this is where the starter will come from. With the front office trying to figure out who in this tier is "fixable" or can be improved on. So something like this: Rotation: Woodruff, New SP, Lyles, Davies, Houser - Further possibilities are a Gio re-signing, a Burnes re-emergence, Suter. Bullpen: Hader, Knebel, Pomeranz, Claudio, Suter, Peralta, Guerra(?), Burnes, Jackson, Black, Faria, Wahl - Some will obviously be part of the AAA shuttle, or at least start in AAA. C: Grandal, Piña IF: Thames, 1B/3B (Freese?), Hiura, SS (???), Moustakas or Shaw, Spangenberg, Arcia (As SS if noone is signed, otherwise as IF backup/defensive sub) OF: Braun (Also 1B), Yelich, Cain, Grisham, Gamel. That's 1 player too many if both additions are made, but Grisham, Gamel, Arcia have minor league options remaining and some injuries are inevitable. Overall it's not a huge overhaul. This was a playoff team this year despite a lot of things going wrong. My approach is to strengthen the areas of weakness, and then upgrade further at the deadline if the team is in contention. Some will say the bullpen was a weakness this year and needs strengthennig; I'll say that it *was* a weakness early on, but as the members and roles in it solidified, it was good. Full seasons (hopefully) of Knebel, Suter and Pomeranz in addition to the better performers who were there all year (Hader, Guerra, Jackson, Claudio, maybe Peralta/Burnes) makes for a good 'pen.

The issue with batting average is that since it doesn't include either extra base hits or other ways of getting on base, it paints a very incomplete picture of a player. Can you draw the conclusion from their .246 and .248 BA that Grandal and Gamel were equally valuable hitters in 2019? OBP is better but still misses out on power. So looking at the complete slash line, or using something like wRC+, is even better. As part of the AVG/OBP/SLG triple slash, batting average servers a purpose as it tells us about what type of hitter someone is. On it's own it's not very meaningful unless it's extremely high or extremely low.

The Brewers had no chance of resigning Fielder. Resigning Yelich can't be completely ruled out. The difference? Fielder was a Boras client and determined to get to FA. Yelich has already signed one long term team friendly deal so another can't be ruled out. Now the Brewers will have offer something like 5 additional years for $150-175 million, which would likely be an overpay for the last couple years, but Braun's last couple were overpays too yet I don't think they are that big of a deal. This Boars thing is just so overplayed. It assumes the players are controlled by Scott Boras. Boars clients have signed pre-arby deals. He is an agent, he acts at the behest of his players. It's not about Boras controlling them (Though clearly some fans do think that, but there are always idiots out there), but more about why they choose Boras as their agent in the first place. It's a large agency with a lot of resources, so that could be a reason too of course, but what Boras is known for is landing the big free agent deals. So you'd think that players with Boras Corp are more likely than average to go that route, and that's why they went there in the first place. As for the comment by Briggs; I think that Yelich having signed a team-friendly extension already makes it less likely that he signs another one, not more. Early extensions are trading potential income for a lower but guaranteed one that gives financial security. Yelich already has that with some $50-60m in earnings. Betting on yourself in that situation and losing still means you're set for life. Of course everyone is different, Yelich might be someone who values the stability and the connections to the city and organization etc, none of us really know. But in a vacuum, I wouldn't think he's someone who would sign an early team-friendly extension at this time.

Well this sucks in every possible way. Would be awful regardless of when it happened, but it being just as the Brewers have shown they are alive in the WC race makes it even worse.

I'd say that whatever Diaz, Harrison, Brinson and Yamamoto end up doing, the trade will have been worth it. Brewers wanted an impact player immediately, and have gotten 2 MVP calibre seasons out of Yelich, with 3 years of team control left. If either of those four go on to be superstars I'll just be happy for them; both teams got what they wanted, and they're some fun players to watch too so everybody wins.

If you look at the pitchers currently on the roster, the Brewers relief pitchers were tied for 5th entering today with a 3.49 ERA (13th for FIP, 6th xFIP). That does include the relief innings thrown by Houser which is helping those numbers, but also the relief innings thrown by Anderson which is hurting them. Anyway, point is that the Brewers have used a lot of relief pitchers who have given up a lot of runs, but that the current group has been pretty good.

Imagine if we had signed Kimbrel. He's been a 2 WAR (Yeah I know that's not how it works) for us so far by not signing him.

With 2 clean innings today, it's now 26 consecutive scoreless innings for Bickford. In that stretch there have been 9 hits (I believe all of them singles), 6 walks, 1 HBP, 38 K.

I don't think Stokes is a huge loss, but I still expect someone to claim him. If you're a rebuilding team with space on the 40-man roster, why not see if he starts hitting next year? If not, he can be removed from the 40-man once space is needed. As for Austin it surely mostly due to the lack of RH bats in general. He's also been consistently very good in AAA, and been at least below average (94 wRC+) in the majors so far. Something in his game must make the Brewers think he can translate more of his AAA performance to the majors. Does strike out at a Keon Broxton-esque rate though.

Cain is an elite defensive CF. Stokes is a left fielder due to his arm. A player like Stokes needs to hit *much* better than a player like Cain to be as valuable.

Was really surprised at first, but with him unlikely to play again this season and the option not getting picked up it makes more sense.

I know they are kind of limited today with all the injuries and so many lefties, but I can't imagine batting Hernan Perez second is ever a good idea.

Unless you are, in fact, David Stearns, there is no way you know this. You are speculating, based on the rough go a guy has had coming off a major surgery. Honestly, I have no idea what the future is for Nelson. But if the Brewers have stuck with him this long, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see them bring him back next year. It’s logic. He’s making 3.7 million this year. If tendered, Nelson will certainly file for a raise with the arbitrator; and it’s unlikely he settles for a pay cut. So they’d be looking at paying 5 million dollars or so for a middle reliever with poor major league stats post injury. There are better relief pitchers that could be had for 5 million than Nelson. With one year of control remaining and a handful of young arms on the roster plus a Anderson and Davies he’s not a good bet for the rotation either. Arbitration contracts don't become fully guaranteed until the start of the season. If cut before the start of the season (Depending on when) the Brewers will be on the hook for 30 to 45 days of pay, or up to $1.25m if he gets $5m in arbitration. He might very well get non-tendered anyway, but the money isn't some insurmountable obstacle. Roster space and performance will be the key. Probably a good chance he signs for less but with incentives and/or a team option with a buyout, some sort of "prove it" deal.

Houser seems to have the rare ability to both get strikeouts and ground balls. Normally the two don't go very well together. In fact among pitchers with 80+ IP (Houser has 82), Houser is 39th in K/9 ratio with 9.33. Not one of the pitchers ahead of him has a higher groundball rate (Though Castillo is off by only 0.3%). You have to go down to spot 117, Dakota Hudson, to find someone with a higher GB%, and he is in fact the only pitcher with 80+ IP who has a higher GB% than Houser. Even when lowering the treshold to 40 IP, there are still only 4 relievers (Luke Jackson, Joe Kelly, Diego Castillo, Jace Fry) with a higher K/9 and GB% than Houser. So while 82 IP isn't really a lot, it's still encouraging to see. Having both the ability to strike batters out and induce double plays goes a long way towards minimizing damage from baserunners.

What's the point of using avg/obp if you're using only 2 numbers? You already have OBP, at which point avg (Since it ignores power) adds very little information. To illustrate this, Arcia is .227/.294, yet their wRC+/OPS+ is around 30 points apart, or in raw numbers .657 vs 777 OPS. Completely ignoring power will never give an accurate representation of a players production at the plate. Although selective use of stats is a good way to push a narrative. Grisham might or might not be a good MLB hitter. But he put up a 193 wRC+ in AAA (League adjusted, so the inflated raw numbers don't impact this) and in his first 66 PAs (At 22) in the majors hasn't looked overmatched. The strike zone discipline and contact skills are there (2nd best O-swing % on the team, lowest swinging strike %, highest contact %). That, and a normalization of his current .225 BABIP, should show up in his batting line soon enough. There's every reason to think he'll be at least an average MLB hitter even if one is a glass half empty kind of person. One doesn't have to be an overly optimistic person to think there's a good chance he could be better than that either.

I think it was just for Suter's rehab start.

I wouldn't trade Hiura. Despite the very poor defense so far he's still a well-above average player overall. Among players with 200+ PAs, his 143 wRC+ is the 20th best in the majors. I also hold out some hope that his defense can get better; after all he barely played defense in his last two years of college, and didn't start playing 2B regularly as a pro until a month (or two?) into the 2018 season. So he has about 1½ season worth of innings at 2B, it's very much possible he can get better. As far as range and athleticism and gettnig to the baseball, he's fine. Not great, but certainly good enough. The problem is almost entirely about throwing. And the problem isn't so much that his arm is weak; I mean it is, but not to the point where it's unplayable or anything. He'll never be a good relay man though. No the problem is accuracy. To some degree that can be a result of a lack of strength, having to throw with max effort more often, with poor accuracy as a result. Or, like today with the high throw that failed to turn a DP, poor technique. But a lot of the time it looks to me like a mental thing. Not quite the yips, but something akin to it. He sometimes has plenty of time to get set and throw and instead he pulls the throw wide and low. Perhaps too much time to think about it. So he might never have a strong arm (With his history, he's not someone I'd have work with Driveline or some such to fix that...), but I think experience, coaching and (If it is indeed mental) a psychologist can fix a lot of it. I think he'll end up as a below average defender, but better than what he is. And even if he doesn't, I'd try him at LF and 1B before giving up. Secondly, if the Brewers were to sour on his defense, I don't think an AL team would necessarily offer much more than what he'd be worth to an NL team. Most teams don't ilke to run a dedicated DH but prefer to rotate. And those who have a dedicated DH might prefer someone who can't even play the field at all. You don't want to give up a ton for a DH-only unless the player is something special, aa DH-only has nowhere else to go and creates some roster issues. In other words, teams would probably still factor in his defense into their offer, as he'd likely see a lot of time in the field even in the AL. Thirdly, there's a very high chance that the DH arrives in the NL soon. But yeah, the TL;DR is that his bat is too good to give up on.

Sadly, Chacin wasn't really going to contribute to the team this year. Has had a poor season (5.69 ERA / 5.79 FIP), and even if that was due to get better it seems like he would have returned after the minor league season, so wouldn't be able to get any rehab outings before coming back. Can't really afford to give rehab outings in a playoff race to a guy who might not even be good enough when fit. Which is a shame, as he was so good last year and was a major contributor to the playoff run. And when he was on his game, really fun to watch too. Backdoor slider on one edge, followed by backdoor sinker right on the other, and sliders all day long. As for Spangenberg; why not? Two replacement level players manning SS currently. Gamel gets sent down, replacing a lefty with a lefty. Grisham gets more playing time in the OF, Perez is there to cover as well. Maybe Spongebob is better than Arcia, maybe he isn't. Much better career numbers as a hitter, remains to be seen what his SS defense is like.

Sadly, Chacin wasn't really going to contribute to the team this year. Has had a poor season (5.69 ERA / 5.79 FIP), and even if that was due to get better it seems like he would have returned after the minor league season, so wouldn't be able to get any rehab outings before coming back. Can't really afford to give rehab outings in a playoff race to a guy who might not even be good enough when fit. Which is a shame, as he was so good last year and was a major contributor to the playoff run. And when he was on his game, really fun to watch too. Backdoor slider on one edge, followed by backdoor sinker right on the other, and sliders all day long. As for Spangenberg; why not? Two replacement level players manning SS currently. Gamel gets sent down, replacing a lefty with a lefty. Grisham gets more playing time in the OF, Perez is there to cover as well. Maybe Spongebob is better than Arcia, maybe he isn't. Much better career numbers as a hitter, remains to be seen what his SS defense is like.

Sadly, Chacin wasn't really going to contribute to the team this year. Has had a poor season (5.69 ERA / 5.79 FIP), and even if that was due to get better it seems like he would have returned after the minor league season, so wouldn't be able to get any rehab outings before coming back. Can't really afford to give rehab outings in a playoff race to a guy who might not even be good enough when fit. Which is a shame, as he was so good last year and was a major contributor to the playoff run. And when he was on his game, really fun to watch too. Backdoor slider on one edge, followed by backdoor sinker right on the other, and sliders all day long. As for Spangenberg; why not? Two replacement level players manning SS currently. Gamel gets sent down, replacing a lefty with a lefty. Grisham gets more playing time in the OF, Perez is there to cover as well. Maybe Spongebob is better than Arcia, maybe he isn't. Much better career numbers as a hitter, remains to be seen what his SS defense is like.