Lathund

It was his first PB since July 6th. He has caught the 2nd most innings in the majors, and has the 18th most PB, 19th most WP.

It was his first PB since July 6th. He has caught the 2nd most innings in the majors, and has the 18th most PB, 19th most WP.

It was his first PB since July 6th. He has caught the 2nd most innings in the majors, and has the 18th most PB, 19th most WP.

No? They pay for prior performance and hope that they can get a few years of that performance knowing the back-end of the deal is probably not going to be very good for the team. What? Teams give players 5 year/100 million dollar contracts knowing their not going to get much for their 40 million dollars but “hopeful” the first 60 million turns out alright? It’s all guaranteed money, if that was the case wouldn’t a team just offer 3 yrs/100 and not worry about the back end? They would much rather pay that $100m over 5 years than over 3, for several reasons. One is that not all players age the same, and they could end up with a very good player for those extra years even if they're more likely not to Secondly, when teams sign deals like these they usually intend to be competitive. Spreading it out over 5 years means another $13m to spend on the roster for those 3 years where you expect to get the best out of that player, enhancing your chances of winning. Thirdly, $1 five years from now is worth less than $1 three years from now. By spreading the money over a longer period of time, the team is paying less, even if only marginally so.

The $/WAR figure is simply the average of the current free agent contracts out there and the production of those players, and thus changes year to year. And you don't compare that to Hernan Perez (or Keston Hiura or Walker Buehler or Cody Bellinger) because they're not available to be signed only for money, you can't spend your money on them. The free agent pool will always for the most part consist of aging player who you will be overpaying for. You can't fill up your entire payroll with pre-arb and arbitration players, they just don't make enough money. So if a team wants to spend the remaining money, it obviously has to be spent on the players actually available to be signed (Or salary dump trades, I guess). So when considering whether to make free agent signing, or evaluating how good a signing has been, it makes the most sense to compare it to what else you could have spent that money on. Value isn't linear, and things like roster spots and positional distribution and other things also play into it. So sometimes paying $15m/WAR can make sense, and sometimes paying $4m/WAR might not make sense. But even so, when taken together, if a team is paying less than the league average for the production they're getting, that's a sign they've spent their money relatively well.

Do you think that the qualifying offer reimbursement is the only reason he didn't get an offer like that last year? I had heard the Mets made him an offer, but I didn't think it was that big. While he's having a solid season, I don't know if he's done a ton to raise his value significantly. The Mets rumoured offer was along the lines of 4/$60m. Exact numbers are unconfirmed, but Grandal's comments would suggest that it's at least in the right ballpark. QO likely played a part, and while GMs would place less emphasis on a few individual appearances than fans would, I imagine that his last few appearances for the Dodgers didnt help him. Can't imagine he gets any less than 3/$45m. Likely more IMO.

Pretty much exactly my take on it. I don't think we can expect his 2018 performance going forward, but being around a league-average hitter with his CF defense and value on the bases still makes him a well-above average regular.

I know at least earlier in the season (Maybe 2 months in?) bullpen ERA was higher than starter ERA for, I believe, the first time ever. IIRC removing openers/"followers" from the data set didn't alter the numbers significantly, if at all. At the start of todays game, they were identical, a league average of 5.52 ERA. I do think that adapting to fireballers is part of it, but I think it has more to do with usage. Fewer innings pitched by starters, who are generally better pitchers, means more innings by relievers. And up to a point that results in better run prevention as starters can avoid the third time through the order, and relievers can go all out for short stints. But more relief innings also means the average quality of relief innings goes down, both as a result of extra workload and due to worse pitchers seeing more innings. All those innings not pitched by starters with their 4 days of rest will be needed to be covered by others, and that leads to the AAA carousel for many teams, which again means more bad pitchers getting playing time. I'm pretty sure that the # of pitchers used in an MLB season has steadily increased as well. Will be interesting to see what teams do about this, if the trend towards more relief innings continues but with different usage, or if we've reached an equilibrium and will remain here.

Albers just wanted to make it exciting, give the crowd their money's worth. Good guy Matt.

I think that even with some money coming off the books and some non-tenders, the salary rises (Both arbitration and for Yelich) will mean that it would be very hard to both spend some money on pitching as well as retain both Moose and Grandal. Grandal is the better player of the two, but also the one who will command more dollars and more years. He's also the one with the best cover behind him. The Pineapple is a league average starter given playing time, just needs a competent backup to keep him fresh, and that's perfectly fine if the $15m (or whatever it ends up being) can be used to strengthen elsewhere. That's a big if, though. Brewers took advantage of a lull in the FA market and the qualifying offer attached to Grandal; I don't think he can be had for a a 1-year deal again, and I'm not sure that multiple years at $15m+ AAV is the way to go. Moose over the last several years has been the very definition of a league average, or slightly above, starter. Or in other words a very useful player. Ideally you'd want those players to be your abitration or pre-arb guys (Or at least paid like one), but unless Travis Shaw rebounds dramatically there isn't a realistic internal 3B option in the organization. There's quality FAs like Donaldson and Rendon, but with the money and years they'd require it seems unlikely. There are cheaper aging veterans like Frazier, Forsythe, Sandoval and Freese but they're not upgrades and only makes sense if part of a series of moves. Looking at current major leaguers, I don't think there's the ammunition or willingness for a trade for a younger player with multiple years of team control. And looking at veterans who would likely be available, it's not looking great either. Eduardo Escobar if the Dbacks are selling; but since they signed him to a 3 year deal the same offseason they started a rebuild, I suspect they want to keep him around. If you believe in Tommy LaStellas breakout (The HR rate is probably a mirage, but signficantly improved K/BB numbers are more likely to be real) then a year of him shouldn't cost much, but again at best a sideways move. Perhaps there's another Travis Shaw out there or a blocked AAA guy or sth, I don't really know. What I'm trying to say is that there probably isn't a better option out there that doesn't carry a ton more risk (In terms of money, years or performance) than Moose. So extending him is probably the best bet. Perhaps signing a cheap veteran RHB to platoon with Shaw could be an option, but then you'd really need to spend the money saved wisely. And it really depends on Shaw finding his way, that his issue seems to be entirely about missing fastballs in the zone is worrying to me. I'll still put more faith in the larger sample, but there is definitely cause for concern. TL;DR As good as he is, let Grandal go. Try to keep Moose as I struggle to see how we could do better and there's very little risk to it. Baseball Reference's WAR doesn't incorporate framing in their defensive metrics. fWAR or WARP are better when evaluating catchers.

There's a very good chance that the entire reason the two big one year additions were possible was that they rolled the dice on the starters, as in there not being the funds to really sign both Moose/Grandal and a starter or two. Spending money on starters would've meant rolling the dice on inferior options to Moose/Grandal in that scenario.

I'd look to bring Gio back. Has pitched well, good to have a lefty, and seems like a good veteran presence in the club house. In addition I'd also look at the FA market for another starter, I like Alex Wood but I'd expect a lot of competition. Maybe a not too expensive trade could be done for a starter entering his last year of team control. Woodruff, Gio, Free Agent, Anderson, Davies would be the default going into ST. Houser, Suter, Peralta, Supak, Burnes, Faria would be their main competition. Sign a couple of NRIs and try to find this year's Miley. I like Houser and Suter the most among them right now. Burnes... I just don't know what's going on. He should be so, so much better. If trading Anderson or Davies (i.e the only "expensive" pitchers in this group) would be needed to afford a good FA (In addition to the money spent on 3B, SS, bullpen, 1B) and maybe get a useful player back, I'd be OK with that. But I like the idea of having some guys we know in there. Davies and Anderson won't win any Cy Youngs, but if they perform in the vicinity of their career numbers that's a pretty damn good bottom of the rotation.

In 6½ seasons with the Brewers, Lucroy averaged 5.5 fWAR. In total fWAR from 2010-2016 (Does include his first half season with the Rangers) his 37 is second only to Buster Posey (44) among catchers, and 8th most overall behind Trout, Posey, Cabrera, Cano, Beltre, McCutchen and Votto. If that's the standard for "solid", I wouldn't mind a team full of even "pretty solid" or "decent" or "OK" guys.

Another two scoreless innings, this time with the Missions in AAA. Rehab outings are obviously firstly about health and building endurance, secondarily about getting the mechanics right and get rid of the rust and the cobwebs, and only a distant third (or fourth) about results. And of course it's a major league pitcher facing inferior opposition. Even with those caveats, Suter still has yet to give up a run or even a hit in 7 IP. 2 walks and 11 strkeouts. Better hitters might get better results, but even so it's encouraging to see him looking sharp straight out of the gate.

Using raw stats for AAA, and the PCL in particular, makes very little sense this year. That stat line looks amazing, but it's "only" a 115 wRC+. Still pretty good, but you'd expect an experienced MLB hitter to be better than the league average in AAA.

Having a RH infielder who can backup SS but can't hit makes more sense right now than a LH 1B/3B who can't hit (For now anyway). But it's going to have very little impact; Shaw didn't play much, and Hernan ideally should play just as little.

If anything here is a joke, it's that take.

The HR rates were wonky in 2017 due to the baseballs, more normal in 2018 and then 2019 has seen seme seriously juiced balls. That 2017 and 2019 were good years HR-wise for Arcia probably isn't a coincidence, and does indeed do a lot to prop up his otherwise very lacklustre stats. Even just a couple of those HRs dying at the track makes his numbers noticably worse worse.

Well, to help with the karma... Grandal is crap, he can't call a decent game, his pitch framing is horrible, he couldn't throw out the runners in a three legged race from 1st base to 2nd. I'd be surprised if he makes contact tonight with his latest slump... Arcia blindfolded is a better hitter than Grandal... The bolded part already had an effect.

About this. Well that certainly seems promising! Callup makes a lot more sense if he has indeed improved on the control issues that have plagued him.

Always great to see our prospects being given a chance, especially a guy like Devin Williams after his injury struggles! I do worry about the 5 BB/9 though, not encouraging to be walking that many in the minors.

Much of the plans for the offseason depends on how things look in the next two months. Specifically, if Shaw looks back to his old self or not will have a significant impact on how Moose and Thames are dealt with. Similarly, if Burnes has a good final two months and if Peralta find consistency in that bullpen role can have a big impact on what pitching moves are made. FWIW, for this exercise I assume that Moose and Grandal decline their side of the option. Shaw: If he shows any sign of life, offer arbitration. If cut during spring training club is on the hook for 30-45 days (depending on when he's cut) of that salary, so there is not much downside to doing it. Thames: Depends on Shaw. And Moose's market. $7.5m (Thames), $5-6m (Shaw) and $10m+ (Moose. Can't imagine he gets less) is a lot for three LHB who will rarely all play at the same time (Hiura should start most of the time against RHP still). Doesn't make sense to keep all 3. If they keep only one, it should be Shaw or Moose to cover that 2B LH option; Grisham, Yelich and Gamel makes Thames ability for another LHB in the OF redundant. Grandal: Can't see him signing any kind of discount extension before the start of FA, and will be too expensive without the QO and with a good season behind him. Similar AAV to this year but over multiple years, most likely. Piña is a solid starter, find him a decent partner to ease the workload (Audition Freitas in september, otherwise look externally). Yes it's a real drop-off from Grandal, but I think that $15-20m can be better spent elsewhere. Shortstop: Definitely try to find an upgrade over Arcia, he's one of the worst performing regulars in the league over the last several years.. But the free agent SS market looks pretty bad, I don't really know how. Should be a priority to at least try, it's the only truly weak spot (Perhaps alongside 3B depending on what happens with Shaw and Moose) in the lineup. Rotation: Exercise the team option for Anderson. High pitch counts, and increases OPS by 40 for each extra time he goes through the order. But for the 5 inning, sometimes 6 and rarely more type of role, he's fine if a bit overpriced. But anyone else who can be had for 1 year and $8.5m is a risk, and while they could be 2018 Chacin they could also be 2019 Chacin. We know what we have in Anderson. Him or Davies could be dealt depending on other moves, but probably not. Stretch out Burnes in AAA in august, put him in the major league rotation in September if the Brewers are out of it (or do it anyway if he looks really good in AAA). Either way, he should be in the mix for the 2020 rotation. Faria should be considered as well, had a good 2017 in the rotation. Give Trey Supak an extended look in ST (or September) as well. Houser shouldn't be ruled out, even if likely to end up in the 'pen. Re-sign Gio. Has pitched well as a Brewer, seems like a really good influence in the clubhouse. Look to the FA market for one big(ish) arm, and a couple of NRI types (a la Miley last year). For the former, at least try for Cole, however unrealistic it may be. Other than that, Alex Wood would be my prime target. Due to age and his good track record he's probably rather sought after and expensive. Miley, Odorizzi and others should be looked at. Trades seem less likely due to the state of the farm system, but you never know. Bullpen: Jeffress: If the decision were to be made right now, decline. If it was $4m in arbitration I'd do it, as per the non-guaranteed nature like with Shaw above. Still 2 months to go though, this one could change. The bullpen is interesting. A couple of optionable arms are needed, seeing as how so many likely members of the pitching staff can't/won't be optioned; Woodruff, Anderson, Knebel, Hader, Houser, Faria, Black and any rotation FA acquisitions. This is another reason why the likes of Guerra, Jeffress and Albers (And Nelson, sadly. I'd try to non-tender and retain as a NRI) are on the bubble even if they were to pitch well RoS. This also limited the amount of FA relievers that can be signed. At least one should be signed though; not for Davis/Kimbrel type of money, but if Grandal/Moose aren't retained, there should be room to spend a bit. So, going into camp it'd look something like Rotation: Woodruff, Anderson, Davies, 2 FA (Gio + Wood/Miley?), Suter, Burnes, Houser, Faria, Supak, maybe Peralta, 1-2 NRI (Trying to find a 2018 Miley). A couple of those likely end up in the 'pen Bullpen: The overflow from the above + Knebel, Hader, Claudio, Free Agent (Smith, Betances, Watson are some of the top names out there), Wahl, Black plus some of the arms in the upper minors. C: Piña, Freitas, Nottingham, potentially FA but market looks meh IF: Two from Thames/Shaw/Moose, Hiura, Arcia, 2B/SS (Not a great market... Forsyth, Sogard, Miller, Schoop, BROCK HOLT \o/), RH 1B/3B/maybe corner OF (Freese, Castellanos, Frazier,, Donaldson, Sandoval. Again, not great...) plus the usual array of upper minors guys and NRIs OF: Yelich, Cain, Braun (also 1B), Grisham, Gamel. Looks fairly set. Playing time to Taylor, Stokes, Ray to evaluate but unlikely to make the roster. I did not include any potential trades there as I don't know what's really viable to do. But I could very well see some of the OF depth and pitching depth be dealt. Like last year, the pitching options will rely on some of the younger players finding their way. But this time with more to go on, and hopefully with more veterans involved and fewer spots up for grabs.

What teams used to do isn't to pull back players that went unclaimed, but rather players who were claimed but where no trade could be agreed and who they wouldn't want to lose for nothing. Waivers themselves don't mean released, the players who cleared waivers in August were still on the roster, business as usual. Justin Verlander reportedly cleared waivers in early August (Teams would waive many, if not most, of their players in early August as there was no downside to it) and was traded at the end of the month. He's already cleared waivers at that point, teams can't claim him, but he's free (But not required) to be traded, released or sent to the minors (Though obviously could and would refuse that). I don't think anything has changed regards to waivers themselves, just that there is little point to putting players on waivers since you can't trade them.

93 career innings as a reliever with a 2.80 ERA/3.20 FIP. Not all of it recent, but still.

Took a dive into the numbers and WOW. Does anyone that's seen him up there have a scouting report they could share? Seems like a guy you'd like to ramp up to 120-130 innings next year. Fangraphs have this blurb: With him not really being on the prospect radar before now, being an 11th round HS pick, without loud tools and who didn't put up very good numbers in his first years, there often isn't much public scouting material to be found. I would think that 7.5:1 K/BB ratio should start attracting some more attention soon though.