Lathund

Was it this tweet? Could be interpreted as either "Had to accept in order to be optioned", or "Couldn't turn down being optioned". But to answer the question, players can refuse to be optioned when they have more than 5 years of service time, Shaw is right around 4 years. International free agents (Including Eric Thames) will sometimes have a provision in their contract that says they can't be optioned even if they have less than 5 years of service time.

He's earned something like a 5-6 ERA, he obviously hasn't been good this year. But he hasn't earned a 9 ERA. The "earned" in ERA shouldn't be taken literally.

It's not just FB command. Burnes can't throw his "stuff" for strikes when he needs it. He gets behind in the count and has to come in with a FB that catches too much of the plate and the Brewer OFs watch another ball sail out of the park. He has shown the same thing as a reliever. He needs to stay in AAA and get his mechanics corrected to where he was last year. He has been much better than that 9 ERA, and that'll show going forward even if nothing changes. And I'm fairly certain it will. All we can do is wait and see.

I'm still not overly concerned about Burnes. Needs to sort out the FB command, but his stuff is simply too good to continue to be punished this way. There's a strong correlation between high strikeout rate and *lower* HR/FB rates and lower BABIP. Burnes has an elite strikeout rate, and we've all seen his stuff. This won't continue. I know I've been saying it for a while, but in the grand scheme of things 40 innings still isn't much. I'm confident he'll have a RoS ERA below 4. Which still will leave him with a horrible overall ERA for the season, but but can't change what's happened, only look forward.

Yeah noone has been acting like that. It's just a straw man that a few posters (Or maybe it was SeaBass who did it last month too, can't remember) have used to make a point. For what reason, I really couldn't tell. Since Hiura was sent down, Perez has a .154/.209/.179, for a wRC+ of 2. Most of those at bats coming at 2B against lefties. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to expect he'll perform a lot better than that. Shaw had a 66 wRC+ in that time, expecting Hiura to perform better than that isn't at all unreasonable either.

Protect: Z Brown, Erceg, Grisham, Ray. If space, maybe add the 1-2 relievers you think most likely to be taken (Or most likely to be useful for the Brewers in 2020) among QTC, D Brown, Sanchez, Griep, Olczak, Ponce. I don't think the relievers are all that attractive tbh, there are guys like that in many systems. But that's coming from someone who has barely seen them, maybe there's something there in some of them that portends a breakout. Erceg is perhaps unlikely to be taken given his struggles, but I wouldn't rule out a bad team taking a flyer on him. Can play good defense, and has the kind of tools where one small adjustment can make a real difference. Ray similarly, can think of plenty of bad teams who'd be willing to carry him as a 4th OF while trying to see if he fulfills that potential. Defense and baserunning means he'll still have some value. Brown is struggling this year, but given what he's shown in the past I don't think that scares teams off too badly. And yeah, I expect we'll see the players on this list feature in any midseason trades the Brewers make. Them, and perhaps even more so Tyrone Taylor and Troy Stokes. With Ray and Grisham needing to be added, Taylor and Stokes should be prime trade bait. Unfortunately, their 2019 seasons have probably hurt their value, but they could still be part of a trade for a reliever. On a more general note, with the rosters expanding to 26 players next year (With a 13-pitcher maximum), I think we can expect to see more players, especially position players, taken in the rule 5 draft this year compared to years past.

Mike Trout. Yeah I know, that's one massive contract, but it's still Mike Trout. The one guy who's definitely better than Yelich, the guy that is already HoF-worthy. The man's two worst offensive seasons by OPS+ were 2012 and 2014, where he had a 168 OPS+. To put that into a Brewers perspective, that's more than Ryan Braun, Paul Molitor, Robin Young and Christian Yelich (Though 2019 will change that) have ever had over a full season. In those two years, his worst years, he won RoY and MVP. One year that OPS+ lead the league. In the other it didn't, but he did lead the league in runs scored, RBIs and total bases. Mike Trout, at his worst, is an MVP. As amazing as Yelich has been over the last year, Trout has been that player for 8 years now. And he does this while playing a well above average CF. You could make a decent argument for younger guys like Acuña, Soto, Bellinger. But I'd still prefer what we already have in Yelich. But the best player of this generation? I couldn't turn that down.

The value of the extreme defensive versatility varies between different rosters. A few years ago, when the team for a time had only 3 OFs on the roster, only one of whom (Broxton) could play CF? That's when a guy like Hernán was invaluable. With the current roster, there isn't going to be much difference with Saladino; We've seen him play well at 3B, SS, 2B. He has played corner OF in the past. CF is the question mark, but Cain, Gamel and Yelich can all play there so it's enough that he can play the corners. From a utility standpoint, even someone like Dubon who is a SS/2B would've been fine in most situations if he could at least play 3B well enough not to suck completely, which a good defensive SS should be able to. Hernán seems like a good, fun presence in the club house. Things like his Bronson Arroyo impression on the mound on the tail end of that 16-0 game, putting some cheer into both fans and players on an otherwise miserable night, do matter. And I so wish we'd gotten to see him play C at some point. But I've long been a critic of his ability at the plate, or rather how someone of his ability is used. He got way too much playing time for a guy with a career OBP in the 280s. He's fine as the utility guy, covering for any injury and enabling any double swtich, but when the plan involves him starting 1/3-1/2 of the games, that's just a rally killer. Good luck to Hernán, hopefully he'll find a solid gig somewhere! And having just read the MVP Machine, maybe he'll be one of those guys who could revamp himself at the plate. He doesn't need to hit *that* much better to be a very solid MLB player.

You can see and judge for yourself https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2019/2019-06/27/dcb8312b-ee15c127-a1045cd4-CSVM-DIAMONDTMP-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4

Really? You must be seeing something I'm not then. The Brewers are certainly not a top-notch defensive squad with Moose at 2B, but I haven't seen any concerning issues defensively. Play around with the table here https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-standard-fielding.shtml to see what I mean. The Crew is average this year in terms of fielding percentage (Moose has the 2nd most errors, if one puts stock in that kind of stat) but most of the advanced metrics look brutal for our team defense. You can even tab over to the 2018 figures to compare with last year’s stellar effort. I really think team defense is a huge missing ingredient this year, and deserves more attention. Yeah I've mentioned it in the past as well, and when there's such a difference between xFIP/FIP and ERA the defense is likely a big part of it. Something as simple as defensive efficiency (Which is more or less the inverse of BABIP) illustrates the struggles fairly well; Brewers are the 6th worst team in the majors at turning balls in play into outs.

Piña has what would be about three weeks worth of plate appearances for a full time player. In that stretch he has a .156 BABIP (Career .296). And it's not a result of not making good contact, per Statcast his average exit velocity is higher than in both 2017 and 2018, and same thing goes for Barrel % and Hard hit %. I've disagreed with some front office decisions this year, but not dumping Piña based on 79 sporadic plate appearances is something I'm fully behind.

If he still has a 56 wRC+ after a full season, then maybe they don't exercise the option in his contract (He is arby eligible, but he signed a 1 year deal with a team option). If it's a 90 wRC+ they almost certainly will. But we're not there yet; he has a 56 wRC+ in 78 irregular plate appearances. Or in other words nowhere enough to say that's who he'll be going forward. And at this point they don't know if they'll be able to extend Grandal or not. If they can, then not having Piña isn't much of an issue. If they can't, that's a different story. The team has a finite amount of resources (both in terms of money and prospects), and I'd rather they spent them trying to focus on areas with bigger need. Manny has been a league-average catcher with the bat, and an above-average catcher on defense. Or in other words, an average to above average starting catcher. When you already have that, the main focus should be elsewhere. Like SS or the starting rotation, where being league average would be a big improvement. With how much Grandal is playing, a backup catcher won't see much playing time. As I said I'm interested in what Freitas can do, and I'm well aware of his stats, but losing Piña (Who at worst is a very solid backup catcher, at best a solid if unspectacular starter) on waivers to possibly see an improvement on 80-100 plate appearances RoS isn't a smart move, and it can't be undone. Sending down Shaw has very little downside, he's a just phone call and a plane ticket away. If Piña had an option it'd be a different story, but he doesn't.

Over the last two weeks, Brewers offense have the lowest BABIP (.260) in the majors, and Brewers pitching have the second highest BABIP (.356) in the majors. Both those numbers regressing towards the mean, as they inevitably will, should see a rather significant improvement even if the level of play stays the same. The "not-in-play" stats like FIP/xFIP would have Brewers pitching as around average in this stretch.

I want to see Freitas be given a shot too, but the problem is how? Piña doesn't have options remaining, and with it being a real possibility that Grandal is gone after the season I'm not sure you'd want to lose Piña as well. The way to do it would be if Aguilar was sent packing, with Freitas and Grandal seeing time at 1st but they don't seem to want to make that move with Aguilar yet. And if you make that move, Hiura should still be the higher priority. I think Freitas gets a shot in case of injuries, but other than that I think they made the move with next year in mind. Or rather they made the move because they saw a player they presumably liked available for next to nothing and took advantage despite the timing not being ideal.

One of the slowest SS in the game. Per statcast he's on par with Vlad Jr, Miguel Sano and Hanley Ramirez. He's fast for a Brewer though, slow team overall.

I think back when the Sid Finch thing was out there were a lot of articles afterward about how it is physically impossible to throw much harder than 105, not sure that was their number but if Hicks was hitting it I will use it. I remember in the early 2000's some show did a study with Dr.'s and cadavers and they figured that the ligaments and tendons in a human arm couldn't hold up much past the force required to throw a ball 102 MPH. I suspect it's the same study mentioned in this article about Tim Linceum. By optimizing every aspect of the pitching movement, from feet all the way to the fingertips, there is perhaps more velocity to be squeezed out, perhaps a pitcher will throw 110 one day. But I do think we're near the breaking point (literally...) of what's possible to sustain over any length of time as far as velocity goes. Muscles can be strengthened, and you can prevent muscle injuries to a certain extent. But all the training in the world won't do much, if anything, to strengthen ligaments; there is only so much force a UCL can take.

Whether there are excuses or not, it doesn't seem like he will be, with him starting both games of the doubleheader in Omaha today. I mean it's still possible, but you'd think he wouldn't play today if he was planned to get called up. As far as who makes way, there are pros and cons to both Shaw and Aguilar. For Shaw the obvious one is that he has options, you don't lose him permanently by taking him off the 25-man. He gets the chance to find his swing again in a lower pressure environment; I can't imagine that the current situation is ideal for him either. Aguilar has the disadvantage of only playing 1B. Carrying a bench bat who's the short side of a platoon, who can't pinch run and whose only position can be played by at least 5 other players on the roster is a bit of a luxury even when he's hitting fairly well. When he's not? Well.... I wish Aguilar had an option, would be so much easier. He wouldn't have been a Brewer in the first place if he did though. He is not the pre-ASB guy from 2018, but I do think he can be a decent major leaguer so I'm not happy about losing him (likely) for nothing. But that's the way I'd go I think. Either way, I don't see how we can keep both any longer. I can understand (Even though I disagree with it) the logic of wanting Shaw to get right and having the belief that he can, combined with as the GM of a small-market team needing to factor in Super 2 to some extent. But enough is enough; Shaw and Aguilar aren't hitting, Perez and Arcia have been ice cold during this stretch, and Cain and Piña are far below their career norms. If it was just Aguilar/Shaw slumping the team could handle that, but it's more than half the team! Hiura might be past the super 2 cutoff, and even if he isn't there's still the opportunity of sending him down at a later point when it matters less, or better yet signing him to an extension, making the super 2 discussion irrelevant. Albies, Kingery, Acuña, Jimenez... seems to be much more potential upside than downside in signing him to something similar.

Yeah Santana is the rare breed who's so bad on defense that despite a 130 wRC+ he's at best (Depending on which defensive metric you rely on) on pace to be a league average regular. Which still makes him a pretty good and useful player, but nothing really special. And yeah, it's a bit early to take defensive metrics as gospel. But in this case, unusually enough DRS, UZR and FRAA are all in agreement that he's been one of, if not the, worst players on defense this year. And he has several years worth of awful defensive metrics, the 400 innings last year were the exception and that's too short a stretch to really read anything into. Errors aren't a good stat, but with 9 errors Santana would be T-10th for most errors by an outfield. Not an outfielder, a whole team's outfield. Brewers OF have 5 errors combined. And then there's the eye test which in this case confirms all of the above. But yes, even with all that Santana might very well be the better player overall. But there's this to consider: Gamel has a minor league option, he hits left handed, he has an extra year of team control, he's cheaper and he can play center field and can thus be a proper 4th OF. And then there's Zavolas; who knows if he has the stuff to ever make it, but so far as a pro he's done as well as you could've asked, including a CGSO yesterday, allowing only 2 base runners. Brewers basically had to trade him (Or eat $30m+ of Braun's salary for nothing. Or have a seriously unbalanced and inflexible roster), and everyone knew it. And they still got a solid return, with a player who suited the roster better.

I've missed the Raptor, I love watching that guy pitch. And hit. And field. And run. And act. Underrated by many. Before he was hurt in 2018 he was putting up solid numbers on "not-in-play" run estimators like xFIP (4.07) and SIERA (4.15) while combining that with the 10th lowest exit velocity in the majors (Though giving up a fair amount of hard hit balls still..), suggesting he was due some improvement. Hard to see him as more than a #4-5 at best, but I'm sure we'd all have liked having a solid lefty #4-5 around so far this year...

My IQ is lower after reading that. Ugh. Sadly there are still some "analysts" like him still around, albeit a lot fewer. They still showed up last year to say that deGrom was an unworthy Cy Young winner because of his W-L record. Luckily we live in an era now where the voters paid no mind to that and he won in a landslide, but there's still some way to go in killing the W as a tool to evaluate performance.

"The Book: Playing The Percentages In Baseball" is a very good introduction to Sabermetrics that mainly focuses on the things that have already gained fairly widespread acceptance. Concepts regarding platooning, sacrifice bunting, base stealing, "clutch", hot/cold streaks, statistical concepts regarding sample sizes and such. And it does a good job presenting the case for the sabermetric lineup construction. But assuming you don't want to read a whole book, this is one of the earlier works presenting the lineup analysis. There are batting order calculators out there as well, which allow you to input the AVG/OBP/SLG of 9 players and it'll tell you the lineup that, given those parameters and assuming that everyone would hit the same in every spot, would score the most runs. What becomes abundantly clear is that lineup contruction matters a lot less than people think. Even actively trying to create the worst lineup possible would "only" cost you something like 0.2 runs per game. The difference between the traditional lineup and the optimal lineup is like 1/10th of that. But hey, even if it's a tiny edge it's better doing it than not doing it, right? Anyway, the most consistent thing from these analysis is that your best overall hitter, who would usually hit #3 in a traditional lineup, should be in the #2 spot. And that generally, the pitcher batting 8th scores more runs for your team. But we're talking less than 1 run per game. It may be more depending on who that #9 hitter is, and who the #1 and #2 hitters are , i.e it's probably more beneficial with Yelich #2 than if he was #4, and same with Grandal leading off vs if it was (the good versions of) Eric Sogard or LoCain leading off, but it may also be less when factoring in that batting him 8th results in 2-3 additional agonizing early pinch hitting decisions per year. What's not shown in the above links though, is that the bigger gap between the hitting ablity of your #8 and #9 hitters, the more you benefit from putting the better one 9th. So Woodruff is probably the one pitcher who should bat 8th, while the others should bat 9th. Or rather if you believe Woodruff is genuinely the 127 wRC+ hitter he's been so far (I don't; he's an excellent hitter for a pitcher, but a .600 BABIP isn't sustainable even for him....) you should treat him as anyone else and slot him where a LH high-avg but low power hitter would be. TL;DR I spent all this time and energy writing this only to convey that it may, or may not, be ever so slightly better (to the tune of <1 run per season) having the pitcher bat 8th. And lineups in general matter very little, except that I applaud CC for consistently hitting Yelich exactly where he should be hitting and not deviating.

Cubs are down 9-0 at home to the Mets, halfway through the 5th inning. That's at least one good thing happening today. Unless of course they come back from that...

Starting with the Giants series, Brewers hitters have a MLB-worst .254 BABIP, while Brewers piching has the 8th highest BABIP at .303. That pitching number is actually identical to the full season number for the Brewers (Which might suggest either some bad luck, or that the defense sucks), but if Brewers have had their season .294 BABIP on offense, results could've been different. A team is never as bad as it looks on a losing streak, and never as good as it looks on a winning streak.

I don't know much abouy Boyd beyond the stats so hard to say how much he'd be worth, but it's the type of signing (young-ish and controllable for several years but with some experience. And being a lefty doesn't hurt) that I'm willing to give up something for. Giving up "real" prospects for rentals doesn't appeal to me at all.

The solution to struggling to build a stadium? Build two! Will be interesting to see where this goes. Though I suspect this is more of a threat/ploy to put pressure on St. Pete and/or Tampa to pay for a new stadium than it is a serious plan. But if it happens, would they then be the ExRays?