Lathund
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Everything posted by Lathund
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2019 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Lathund replied to And That's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
So we got ourselves a Tom Dillard to replace Tim. -
I'm a bit torn on this. I certainly put more stock into Shaw's track record over multiple seasons than I do over 40-odd games; the 2017-2018 Shaw should absolutely be on this team. At the same time, I'm worried in that Shaw's struggles were almost entirely down to swinging and missing on pitches in the zone. Plate discipline, exit velocity, swing rate etc. are basically unchanged. And I'm not sure how easily fixable that flaw is. I can only assume that the Brewers have reason to believe it's likely to improve, but the rehab stint didn't inspire confidence. And Travis himself said the injury occured just before the DL stint, so doesn't explain the struggles before then. I would have given Shaw more time in AAA to get going, and then reevaluate the whole 1B/2B/3B situation. But then again when I've disagreed with DS moves, it's usually turned out that they were right to begin with. So I'll leave the pitchfork alone for now. One note on the timing though. Normally moves like these are made the day of the game; they didn't have to make it official today. One could interpret that two wildly different ways. Either they plan to (Or want to have the ability to) call up Hiura as soon as possible if needed. Or he's being sent down as early as possible as part of a move to try to get past the Super 2 cutoff.
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Watching to see if the Cardinals can close it out against the Cubs. Up 2-0, top of the 9th with 1 out, runners on 1st and 3rd. Adam Wainwright pitched 8 shutout innings, despite 7 walks. I feel dirty cheering for the Cardinals, but in this scenario I think it's acceptable.
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Should tell Davies before every start he makes that the bullpen is depleted and he'll go 8 innings every time. The man can pitch.
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Jimmy!
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Chacin's next start would be on Wednesday. It could mean Jimmy, as he is lined up to start Tuesday in AAA. But it could also be Wilkerson or Peralta (With or without opener), who would both start on normal rest. Could also be a game where the multi-inning relievers combine for a "start". I'm hoping it's Jimmy though. EDIT: AND IT IS!!!
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These last 5 saturdays have taken years off my life... Yeah certainly did for me. For most of last year or earlier in the season it wasn't as if he was doing well but not getting the results; he looked completely lost. And then suddenly, almost overnight, he turned things around. And now he hits for avg, takes his walks and hits timely home runs. Houser has looked really good. Has had some bad luck with batted balls (Both BABIP and HR/FB %) that makes his already good numbers look a bit worse than they perhaps should. He's a groundball machine who can get some strikeouts as well. With Chacin and Gio being FAs, Anderson's team option not looking like a slam dunk, and Nelson yet to make his return Houser is (Or should be anyway) in the running for a rotation role next year. And of course a candidate for spot starts this year too when the workload and schedules align.
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Gio's IL stint was retroactive to his start on Wednesday, so if it's a minimum length stint he could return to make the start himself on the 8th. Essentially just skipping him once in the rotation.
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With Gio going on the 10-day DL and Piña being recalled, and the Brewers not needing a 5th starter until the 8th, I think that we'll see Nottingham get optioned for Shaw, meaning Keston will stay on the roster a while longer on matter what.
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Link Report for Friday 5/31 - TGIF!
Lathund replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
To me he has always been interesting. Not necessarily a top-tier prospect, but also not the disappointment that many seem to regard him as. I'll be the first to concede that he needs to improve his slugging to make it to the big leagues; whether that comes from a better BA or higher .ISO isn't as important, but it needs to happen. With that being said, to make the case for him: He's been young for his level at every step of the way, and he still is even as he repeats AA. He has lowered his K% the last 3 years as he has climbed (26% in A, 25% in A+, 22% in AA and now 20% in AA), and has a career OBP of .364. He has overall been above-average offensively at every level; 154, 119, 110, 107, 105 and now 132 wRC+ by year. He's on a 30+ SB/650 PA pace. And this is from a LHB who is at least capable of playing CF. If he wasn't a high first round pick the perception of him would be quite different. I think he has a good chance of being a 4th OF or low-end starter type of player. I also hold out some hope that with that kind of eye and plate discipline he could become really good if the power shows up. A big if, but there's some upside at least. -
Did Plesac just refer to Chacin as "Shaolin"? Mispronouncing names is one thing, but this is truly spectacularly off.
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When do Brewers try to lock up Woodruff?
Lathund replied to JohnBriggs12's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Getting this done shouldn't be a big priority, but if Woodruff is interested, why not? Early pitcher extensions are risky, but great value when it pays off, whether through keeping your franchise player (Bumgarner) or through trades (Quintana, Sale). Always hard to judge the shifting tides in the market, or make player comps, but the Quintana contract should be a decent baseline; 5 years, $26.5m guaranteed with two team options for $10.5m and $11.5m with $1m buyouts; the two option years being the only FA years. They will both have very similar service time by the end of this season (i.e very close to two years), but Quintana will have been 2 years younger at the time and will have had maybe 80-100 more innings pitched. Inflation and overall increase in payroll will make up for some of that. So leave some leeway for where the final figures would end up, so while it's not a guaranteed rate, it should be in the same (Or nearby) ballpark. To me that type of deal looks fine. Doesn't need to be great to be worth it (It's OK, if somewhat disappointing, even for a #5 type starter or good swing man), not a crippling amount of money if if he absolutely bombs, and if he's a #3 or better starter it will have been tremendous value both during the arbitration years and with the extra two years. Super 2 starters get paid a lot during the last two years of team control. -
It is.
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Service time ticks when on the DL. He was 65 days away on opening day, those 65 days are almost up. So if they were going to option him, they had to do it now. I would have preferred to have Nelson up and starting next week, but I can see why they did what they did. He'd need to spend almost the entire season optioned for the Brewers to get an extra year.
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Before today I was hoping to have Chase moved to the 'pen, moving the other starters up, before calling Jimmy up next week to start. Hoping he'll prove me wrong and have a good start.
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Baseball is such a high-variance game though. If a hitters "true skill level" against a certain pitcher is that of a .200 hitter, he could still easily be 5 for 10 or 0 for 12 early on. Just as a .300 hitter could start 0 for 8. With these sample sizes you just don't know. If we're debating starting Tyler Saladino or Hernan Perez then sure go with whoever has the better record in the matchup. But if it's Mike Trout vs, well pretty much anyone, I don't care if he's 0 for 10.
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Of course Gamel should start, but he already would in place of Yelich. Braun is a much better option than Perez, 12 PAs doesn't change that. But if he's hurt, he's hurt; my comment was on the assumption he was being rested.
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Braun feeling that hamstring again? With off days Monday and Thursday, and Yelich hopeful to be back Friday it would otherwise seem like an odd choice to have a scheduled off day for Braun today. EDIT: Nvm, knee apparently Not exactly a strong lineup against one of the best starters so far this year.
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CC has to send someone down to get Nelson on the 25-man roster. If they activate Shaw then another player has to be sent down unless CC wants to go with a 7-man pen. Either way if Shaw is activated Hiura has to go down or somebody has to be sent packing. With Chase moving to the bullpen, they can send down a bullpen arm while still having 8 guys there. It was so obvious in my head I just forgot to include it. Now they've also said Shaw will be starting his rehab assignment Wednesday, and likely will play at least 5 games, so he might not even be activated before Nelson, or just a couple of days before, so the above plan is unneccessary anyway.
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I pointed it out in the pitching thread, but if the Brewers decide to put Nelson in the rotation they could move Chase to the bullpen now, and start Woody in his spot on Saturday (Would still start on an extra days rest), and activate Jimmy on the 30th to start. What this would mean for Hiura is that if they send down a pitcher (I would assume Houser), they could activate Shaw on Friday, keep both Hiura and Shaw on the roster until then, and do so while still maintaining an 8-man bullpen. At least gives them some extra time to decide what to do, to see if Shaw looks any better, if Hiura hits well enough to make him impossible to send down, if they can keep running with a 12-man staff for a while etc. Personally I hope he stays with the major league club now that he's up. The sooner he gets regular playing time in the majors, the sooner he can adapt to major league hitting and contribute to the team. Has to happen at some point, might as well be now. Depending on who stays in the bullpen, they should have enough multi-inning arms that if used properly it would allow a 12-man pitching staff for a while if the rotation is stable. Having one of Shaw/Moose/Hiura, one of Braun/Gamel/Cain/Yelich and either Thames or Aguilar ready of the bench every day would be quite potent.
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With Jimmy starting Thursday, and Chase lining up on Saturday, I'd say that Jimmy taking Chase's next start on May 31st seems fairly likely. Or possibly that with the 2 off days this week, they move Chase out of the rotation already and have Woodruff start (Still on an extra day's rest) on Saturday, and Jimmy getting his start on the thusday, 30th. Pulling Chase early, at a time where there are extra off days like this and only 4 starters are needed, would allow the team to activate Shaw on Friday (I think that's when he's eligible to return) without having to demote Hiura or be short a bullpen arm. They wouldn't then have to make a decision on that until the 30th. I think a 6-man rotation is more suitable for when the scheduling is worse, with this many off days the starters get extra days between starts anyway, and I'd rather give our best starters an extra start or two rather than squeeze Chase in there. 6-man rotation also means one less bullpen arm. I just don't see anything to gain there right now.
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I read the same thing in a more recent book (Russell Carleton's "The Shift"), and the numbers were similar, IIRC it was 65% success needed. The author only half jokingly stated that teams, at least the more conservative ones, would be better off with actual windmills who send the runner every time. The numbers were different, but the conclusion similar, on tagging up at 2nd, on going first to third, and pretty much any baserunning scenario. But human beings would rather err by being too cautious than looking bad when even a correct send fails. And no Wonder considering how much crap 3B coaches already get when they're being overly cautious! What also fascinates me in these discussions is that some people seem to think that giving stop signs or taking a hitter's batting gloves is all that the base coaches do. The in game part of their job is probably far less impactful than the coaching aspects.
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I'm checking out for the night. Games like this happen, but the team has been good recently. Onto tomorrow and sunday to take the series with the more favourable pitching matchups.
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27-19 With the hardest schedule and the fewest off days. We're done with the season series against the best team in the NL (Dodgers). We've played a grand total of 10 games against the current 4th and 5th placed teams.
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Making coach Cooper proud.