Lathund

I don't know what the Brewers have seen in him necessarily, but I presume they like his stuff; getting decent whiff rates while throwing 65% sinkers. He used to be an extreme GB pitcher (~64% in his first few seasons) but that has tailed off the last couple of years as the K/9 has risen. I guess they see something in there that makes them think they can combine the two. They also presumable have seen the .398 and .379 BABIPs and the 25% and 17% HR/FB rates for those two years, and don't believe they're sustainable. Those two years are also only 70 innings, which isn't much. He has put up respectable xFIPs of 3.61 and 4.05 in those two years, and while that doesn't factor in the whole skillset it's still far more predictive than ERA or H/9. Simple regression to the mean combined with a better defense and better framing would likely see him a league average pitcher on their own. And hopefully they, and Jake himself, have some kind of idea on how to get better. This is not to say he'll necessarily be better, but looking beyond the surface stats things look better and you can see why they'd take a chance.

If no Kimbrel. Replace Barnes with fields please. And Albers with houser. Package the two in a trade for lottery ticket That post was based on what we're likely to see, and they've already said Houser will be stretched out in AAA. Fields won't pitch in camp, and thus won't be ready. He's also on a minor league deal, so he doesn't have to take up a 40-man spot until needed (Though I presume he has an opt-out at some date, just not necessarily opening day). With Knebel, Wahl and (at least for a while) Jeffress down, it makes no sense to even further deplete bullpen depth. I'm not a big Barnes fan either, but he has put up ERA and FIP of around 3.50 for his career which is good for a minimum wage guy with options remaining. Albers had a sub-2 ERA as recent as 2017, and that 28% HR/FB rate and .347 BABIP aren't likely to continue. If he's been looking decent in ST (Numbers look fine, haven't seen him myself) there's absolutely no reason to cut him (Not going to get much, if anything, in a trade) now, when his potential replacements are on minor league deals or have options remaining.

SP: Chacin, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes, Davies RP: Hader, Claudio, Guerra, Barnes, Anderson, Albers, Williams, Petricka (The last two would be the ones to give way if a new addition was made) C: Grandal, Piña IF: Aguilar, Thames, Moose, Perez, Arcia, Shaw OF: Braun, Cain, Yelich, Gamel Spangenberg, Saladino and Nottingham the first guys on call in the minors, should all see time in the majors. Nelson, Houser, Fields should be the first names up on the pitching side.

Bullpen ERA is hard to predict due to the small sample sizes resulting in a lot of variance, and how sequencing and batted ball luck can really do a number over 50-60 innings. But underlying performance doesn't vary quite as much. Corey Knebel is a very good example of this; in many ways his 2018 was overall better than 2017, but the difference between HR/9 (A notoriously noisy stat) and LOB% meant that the ERA suffered. Stats that are better predictors include K-BB%, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, cFIP and DRA. DRA tends to be the best with very small sample sizes. From a Brewers point of view it's promising to note that the Brewers were 3rd or 4th (Behind the Astros, Yankees and in a couple of categories the Padres) in all of these last year. While for example the Cubs bullpen was 2nd in ERA (Brewers were 5th), but ~20th in these other categories. Of course, this says very little about injuries and changes in the pitching staff, but it's safe to say that the underlying performance matched the run prevention last year. So while the ERA can still fluctuate, last year wasn't a fluke.

You're better off asking him, I don't see any point in it either. He seems to believe that 30 career innings at 3B means that Aguilar definitely can play there. Only way it makes "sense" (And I use that word losely) is if you want to squeeze Moustakas, Aguilar, Shaw and Thames into the same infield, which also requires faith in Moustakas playing SS. And you lose so much defense that it's just not worth it.

Counsell (Or Stearns?) has said in an interview that they're going with 6 starters, but with a 5-man rotatation and not 6-man. If that entails taking turns in the bullpen, or turns in AAA, they didn't elaborate on. But it should address the concerns regarding inning limits.

It's just one guy suggesting it. On the other hand, he's relentless about it.

Jimmy wasn't done, went out there for the 9th. Three more Ks, one hit that comes around to score on an error.

Pitchers had been waiting for this the (first?) day without the DH. Corbin Burnes singles, walks and scores a run. Adrian Houser hits a 2-run HR. And great to see Jimmy with 2 solid scoreless innings. Hasn't walked a batter yet.

Jimmys 2017, whether you want to call it a breakout or an outlier or both is perhaps better evaluated when you also consider 2016 as one. Not that he was as good in 2013-2015 as in 2017, but he was a lot better than in 2016. Looking at plate discipline stats is interesting; he had a SwStrk % of 9-10 in those years, that then dropped to 7% in 2016 before 11% in 2017.. Batters stopped swinging as often on pitches (Mainly outside the zone) in 2016, but started making more contact. Jimmy threw more strikes in 2016, but had a lower first strike %. He threw more sinkers and fewer curveballs. The stats can tell a story here. Falling behind more often (Lower first strike %) results in more of the latter pitches being thrown in the zone, and in counts where you expect to see strikes/fastballs. Fewer breaking balls means fewer swings and misses, both outside and inside the zone. So without throwing fewer strikes, you still see the BB% rise and thus K% drop even more than K/9 does. Now without looking at heatmaps and such it's harder to tell the details, like which pitches got the swings (and contact) outside the zone (My guess would be sinker), or if there was a particular pitch he was struggling to throw for strikes. The pitch value would suggest that it was the sinker. Now I didn't watch much of Jimmy in 2016, but just from the above numbers it made me think that he struggled vs RHB in 2016, and he in fact did (.802 OPS vs .685 for his career. vs LHB he was exactly in line with his career numbers) simply because sinkers that miss their spot vs a same-handed batter are just the kind of pitch you'd see more contact made against even outside the zone. Anyway, what changed in 2017 was the pitch mix, back to something very close to 2015 with more curves and fewer sinkers. What stuck from 2016 was the higher zone % compared to before, while the other numbers aren't much different from 2013-2015 with the exception of getting a few more swings, but most importantly getting more swings and misses outside the zone. Better breaking stuff, and more pitches thrown in the zone. You see the evolution where Jimmy in 2015 threw fewer fastballs and more breaking stuff, which saw more swing and miss but more walks. 2016 where where more fastballs (Sinkers) again, more strikes but more walks probably due to lacking an out pitch and nibbling more (I can't find pitches / PA, but I'd expect a spike there). 2017 going back to what showed promise in 2015 with the curveball, but this time seeing better results. Maybe because of the new curveball grip that I recall hearing about, maybe because the fastball/sinker got better. Maybe because he set himself up to throw them in the right count better. Anyway, I hadn't really looked at these stats before, but found it pretty interesting that you could tell a tale just from looking at some stats. Some of it aligns with what I remember (Like the very effective curveball in 2017), some I have no idea if they're true. But I'd say that 2016 makes 2017 look like more of an outlier than it was. 2013-2015 Jimmy was a league-average pitcher lacking some ability to finish off hitters. Add some strikeouts to that and you've got a breakout.

He was mostly lights out, was a couple of LHB he seemed to lose his control against and walked. Other than that he was hurt by a WP strikeout and two fly balls that the OFs lost in the sun.

I don't disagree with the point about Anderson's ERA in 2017 not reflecting his actual performance, but his velocity did tick up. At some point relatively early on in the season there was an adjustment made that resulted in velocity being comparable to earlier data. So velocity gained/lost in 2017 can be treated the same as in any other year now.

Chase pre-2017 | 418 IP (96 ERA+) Jimmy pre-2017 | 436 IP (93 ERA+) Nelson actually had a slightly longer track record of mediocrity than Chase did prior to 2017. Everyone's free to come up with their own definition of outlier, but when you have 436 IP of 93 ERA+ work & 175 innings of 126 ERA+, that meets the commonly accepted definition. Yes, I believe Jimmy took a step forward in 2017, but I also know he got hurt in & in a very unusual manner. I said earlier in the thread I thought a "healthy" Nelson was capable of 25 starts, 140 innings & a 110 ERA+. I'm expecting the under on all three, but will gladly take the over should that come to pass. The reason I view them differently is that the underlying difference in performance was much greater than what ERA would suggest. Chase had put up xFIP- of 99, 107, 115 before 2017, and put up an even 100 in 2017, followed by 118 in 2018. Jimmy in his 4 full seasons has put up 106, 104, 119 and then 73 (5th best among qualified starters). Or in other words Chase Anderson got much, much better results by not improving all that much. Jimmy got better results by improving a lot. Those K/BB numbers are truly elite (Very similar to Kershaw's career numbers), and only a .340 BABIP prevented his run prevention numbers from looking equally elite. One can argue about comparing different pitchers via xFIP, but it certainly serves as a useful internal comparison over a pitchers career; more Ks and fewer BBs are generally a sign that one is pitching better. So yeah, I believe(d) a lot more in Jimmy's breakout than I do/did Chase. What remains to be seen of course is what effect the shoulder injury will have, but I believe that before it he had found something real and would almost certainly have outperformed Anderson going foward.

We'll have to see when the full details are released, but I would think that with the purpose being pace of play, then between-inning pitching changes would be exempt. I mean if they weren't, then the pitcher would go out there for a batter or two, only to likely have another mid-inning pitching change which kind of defeats the purpose. A better change, for some reason less reported on, is the shortening of commercial breaks

They don't track pitch counts properly in ST. It'll just automatically show 3 pitches for a K, 1 for other outs and 1 for each hit etc. I don't know the exact workings, but point is to not trust the pitch counts from ST box scores.

What's there to apologize for? We should still be losing 100 games as we just start to get ready to rebuild under normal circumstances. Are there that many people who follow the team but who are critical or Stearns? After getting within one game of the WS I don't think there are many left (though the ones who still won't give this front office the benefit of the doubt are still around). But yeah, all the way up until that great finish to the season you'd find them, as inexplicable as it may seem. The Stearns detractors would be extra visible when moves they didn't like were made. IIRC there were even some vehemently negative reactions to Chacin and Yelich being acquired. Min you these people were always in the minority, but they were vocal enough to make themselves heard. Counsell haters, on the other hand, could probably be found in every game thread where the Brewers trailed for even half an inning.

A lot of pitchers are down a few ticks early on in ST, even when not recovering from shoulder surgery. So we don't even know if there is a loss of velocity, let alone if it'll have any consequences.

Then I'll go with him starting the season somewhere other than the rotation. Which isn't to say we won't see 2017 Jimmy Nelson this year. Am I to understand that you went from asking when the first off-day would be so as to find out if perhaps Nelson could be used as our 5th starter and then when you realized that the Brewers 5th starter would need to be used the first time through the rotation, THEN decided he wouldn't regain his 2017 form? If the 5th starter could have taken the first two turns off, then what? Cy Young-Jimmy Nelson? No, you're not to understand that. I think you should read the post you quoted again.

Jimmy Nelson in his comeback gave up 2 runs of 4 hits, including a HR. Which is perhaps the least relevant stats of the outing; and one run-scoring hit should've been caught by Stokes if I heard Uecks right. No, what matters is this: 3 strikeouts, no walks, sat 91-92 and touched 94. This in his first outing in 549 days. In other words, his stuff appears to be just fine. Throwing some hittable pitches is less concerning, both rust and adrenaline/nerves likely plays into it. Or perhaps the hitters deserve credit; I only have the radio to go on so I don't know. Still too early to speculate on his role or what he'll do, but if he had no ill effects I'll consider this very promising.

Good scoreless outing for Josh Tomlin today. 5 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K.

My main hesitation with signing another starter is that I'd like our young guys to get a shot. At the same time, there are a ton of players with option years remaining in the rotation and bullpen, so noone necessarily needs to be traded or released to facilitate a signing. And as far as Gio goes, while he did have a bit of a down year, he wasn't bad. Looking merely at one seasons worth of ERA when trying to predict future run prevention isn't a good idea as it's a rather noisy stat. So looking under the hood a bit, it still shows a down year by his standard. cFIP was a league average 100 (89 for his career) which is the same as Chacin for instance, and DRA- of 93 (With an excellent 81 for his career). As a comparison, Chase Anderson has only had a DRA- under 110 once, and that was a 88 in 2017. So basically the underlying metrics would suggest he had a down year, but was still at worst a league average pitcher and perhaps a bit better. So you then have to ask yourself if this was just a blip, or if this was the start of a 33-year old declining. The fact that the underlying metrics were mostly hurt by a lower K rate woud be a reason to worry. That his fastball velocity is down from his career numbers is another. But the velocity was the same as during his sub-3 ERA 200IP 2017 season, and the swinging strike rate was the highest its been in 4 years and still above his career average. Only time will tell if he bounces back or not, and I wouldn't want to sign him to a big long-term deal. But if he can be had for something shorter, I'd take the chance. Or well, I would in a vacuum, I don't know how much salary room the Brewers have to play with at this point and I wouldn't want to exhaust the options at the deadline.

It was in relation to the money they spent. Cole, Sale and the other top tier starters will cost significantly more than $68m, probably at least twice that. Corbin got $140m with a shorter track record of success than the aforementioned, Darvish got $125m with more durability concerns. If you have, or are willing to spend, that kind of money on one starter then it's a great market. If you're going to be shopping in the next tier (Where the Cardinals are more likely to look) then you'll have a hard time finding better value.

The most optimistic timetable comments I remember hearing from the Brewers was relatively early on, that he wouldn't be back before June. Basically that the very best case scenario was June, and with a rehab assignment probably closer to July.

Beating the Cubs always feels good, even if it's just ST and is mostly meaningless. Good to see Chase looking sharp against a good lineup.

I really hope the increased usage of the ball-in-glove logo is a precursor to switching the official logo. Though with the M becoming official only last year I suspect it may not be the case.