Lathund

Thames deal isn't a bad one at all. If he became a free agent today, he'd likely get more money than what we're paying him, despite the post-April slump. So the money shouldn't really be a consideration in this. Doesn't mean we shouldn't consider how we can improve though. Trying out Santana at first wouldn't be a bad idea. Having two 1B-only players in Aguilar and Thames (Thames in the outfield isn't really a thing...) puts some limits on a team that likes having an 8-man bullpen. Essentially forcing us to have Hernan Perez as the primary backup for several positions, giving too much playing time to a relatively poor bat. Whereas having a 1B who can play other positions as well gives some flexibility. Now that could come in many ways; Braun/Santana trying out there, Shaw (Don't have another option at 3rd though really), resigning Walker, a C/1B type. Or something else. So what we do with Aguilar/Thames would have to depend partially on what the market is for them: I'm open to trading either one, but it should only be if there's a good return for them. And I worry that the slugger market isn't going to be all that great this offseason. And it should also be based on what the Brewers staff see day in and day out; where do they believe Thames/Aguilars real level is? Is there more to come from either one as they adapt (or re-adapt) to the majors? If it's unlikely, for whatever reason, to see improvement then we should rather actively look for trades. If they think we can reasonably expect more from either one, or both, then we hang on to them. Either to play, or to trade at a later date.

Up 7 going into the 9th, I wouldn't mind seeing Taylor Williams being given a chance, assuming he's fit and rested.

Yes. Or well, maybe not specifically 3, but was going to be a short leash and somewhat of a bullpen day. I would've thought 4 though, pitch count was in decent shape and Suter had looked good.

Nelson looked a bit off in the early innings with his fastball. But when you can throw curves for strikes like that, does it matter? That Hader inning though... wow. He had decided that noone was getting a hit off him, and you could feel it from the first pitch. Could have left him in with how he was pitching and with that pitch count. But with someone like Knebel, and with someone who crushes LHP like Zimmerman does I get why you'd make the change, even if I probably wouldn't have. Knebel impressive as ever. Man do I miss Manny Piña though, against someone like Turner. A good defensive catcher to back up Piña could be something to look for in the offseason; not the highest priority, but if the opportunity presents itself. Sucks for Roark to lose like that, absolutely no help from his offense after pitching such a good game.

He looked safe to me. I think the reason the review takes so long is that the replay crew feel that he's safe, but because he was called out they need more to overturn, so they kept looking. But yeah, Santana should have stopped at second to begin with.

Scherzer vs. Garza?!? Drooling to see that matchup. Sounds like a W! Right, but it's better than having Max go Sat and then still have Garza or whoever the callup is go Sunday. Now you only have one game you're going into negatively. I bet this is Garza's last game starting, they'll sit Braun and others Sunday and just punt the game. Then try to use the bye days the next two weeks so you might only need a #5 one more time until the week of the 17th, and who knows they could be as good as out of it by then. Change of plans again: Scherzer is now pitching Saturday. It'll be Garza vs Jackson on Sunday

Yeah. Broxton in CF and Arcia at SS had fantastic inning-ending defensive plays in both the 8th and 9th inning. The players who started in their place, Sogard and Perez, combined for 4 hits with 2 RBIs. Couldn't have worked out any better than that!

Yup. I especially liked the first changeup (Low outside to a RHH), after throwing a lot of fastballs inside, fastballs who come in across his body. That changeup with it's armside movement (Or perceived movement compared to the fastball) must be tough to deal with. Changeups were 81 and 84mph IIRC, compared to the 93-97 FB.

On the topic of TTO and Ks: I buy that it's the "best" approach, i.e if you're getting the proper tradeoff for swinging for the fences (HRs) and for patience (walks) then that can make up for, respectively, swinging strikes three and taken strike threes. And a K with the proper payoff doesn't have to be more negative than another out. Where it can fall short though is with sequencing; even a team that does this successfully, better than the Brewers, will have dry spells. That's just how it works. So it could be that it's the best way to win games over time, but not necessarily the way to maximize chances in an individual game. And it will see a lot of hot and cold streaks. That's not to say the other option is to play small ball and manufacture runs through bunts and such, there's plenty of middle ground to be had. Anyway, it's not the TTO philosophy itself I'm really interested in, but rather how it pertains to the Brewers and to player acquisition. Firstly, is the TTO approach really what Stearns is going for? Clearly he values power (and speed), but power doesn't have to come only in that form. So have we acquired those type of player through specifically targeting that, or is it a consequence of "Best available player" being of that type? Perhaps one reason that Villar and Broxton were available so cheaply was the swing-and-miss aspect of their game; and the Brewers, being in rebuilding mode with the ability to take chances on guys with high upside took a shot? Broxton is unlikely to get the strikeouts truly under control, but there's tremendous upside if he does. Or perhaps this is exactly the type of players we are looking at, just looking to get better versions of them going forward? I really don't know, and it'll be interesting to see what Stearns will focus on going forward, as the team looks to become more competitive. Personally I think the problem is to try and go too far in any direction. Have a tilt towards the TTO approach. Have a few of those guys in the lineup. That's probably a good thing, especially when the ball carries the way it does, and we even have a hitter-friendly park. So I'm all for that. But the problem comes when your lineup is filled with them. I don't know how to find the data, but I'd imagine that we score a very large proportion of solo HRs. We need to make sure we get more runners on base in order to pull this off. Finally as a more general note: If there's a trend in baseball, there's value to be found in going against it. No guarantees that it'll be better (I mean there's usually a reason for a trend to start in the first place), but players not fitting this trend will be cheaper and more readily available.

Something even more rare than the Dodgers losing a series this year happened this game, namely that Kenley Jansen gave up a walk. That walk to Manny Pineapple was only his 6th this year, in 58 innings. He's ridiculous. That Corey Knebel can (almost) keep up with Jansen, while walking more than 5 times as many batters says a lot about how good the rest of Coreys game is.

Among all MLB players with 200+ plate appearances this season, Keon Broxton has the lowest Z-contact % (% of contact on swings on pitches in the zone) of all, with 68.9%. For comparison, Eric Sogard is 4th with 95%. Chris Carter is the only other player under 70%, in fact the only other one below 72%.

In the grand scheme of things, $50k is virtually nothing to an MLB club. My mistake about Espino, for some reason I thought he was out of options. Which I don't know why I thought, since I know we optioned him. Brain freeze I guess.

Yeah there's got to be something there. Looking over his stats, what jumps out with relation to the sky high ERA is 19% HR/FB ratio this season, 25% last season, as well as a .345 BABIP this year, .333 last year. Before that, when those numbers were more normal, he was running a sub-4 ERA in AAA and AA. Even this year in AAA his xFIP is a fairly decent 4.28. To put that into perspective, on the current Brewers roster only Knebel, Nelson, Barnes, Drake and Hughes has a better xFIP. So there are, even at a superficial glance at stats, some things that would point to that ERA being rather misleading. Presumably the Brewers have scouted him as well, and there's more there that would speak to improvements. But yeah, could also be playoff depth in AAA if Guerra, Jungmann, Webb, Wang and others are called up. Still, a move that costs nothing other than DFAing Espino (Who could well be claimed if it was September, but not now) so I'll trust Stearns on this.

For me it's about a couple of things: Roster implications is one. It means one less spot on the 40-man, which means one less player protected in the rule 5 draft, room for one less offseason signing. Not having to add him until opening day (Or later) gives a lot of flexibility. He'd also not be playoff eligible if he was promoted after sept 1st (If I understand correctly), so if he was a significant contributor to the Brewers getting to the playoffs, he wouldn't be able to contribute once there. Could of course add him before September, someone on the ML roster could always have a timely 10 day minor injury to make room. Maybe he is already good enough to be a major league reliever. He could very well be, I don't know. But he's also a starter with 140 IP this year. And he'd need to learn how to pitch from the bullpen, learn how to adapt to major league hitters in the middle of a pennant race. It's one thing having the raw ability to do the job, another thing doing it under these circumstances. I think he could well be decent, but I don't think the overall benefit it gives is enough to warrant starting his clock and worsening the roster crunch this offseason. Nor do I really think it's the best move for his development. We don't need to rush things. He started the year in A+ and has done everything right, exceeding all expectations both there and in AA. Let him finish out the season as a starter, getting to the # of innings our staff wants. Invite him to camp next year, but likely have him start in AAA regardless next year; If he impresses in camp and early in AAA, have him as the first callup when a spot opens up. That's about the most aggressive I'd be with him right now. There are players in the high minors running out of options who I'd like to be given a look before we need to make a decision on them, I'd rather prioritize that atm. tl;dr Potentially decent short term move, not a fan in the long term.

Yeah, the "above replacement" part confuses a lot of people and makes them use it incorrectly. The benefit of how it's framed though is that it gives you something tangible, however misunderstood, to relate it to. As opposed to just a ratio or percentage. In a partial season WAR isn't something to pay too much attention to, but over time it correlates well with with actual wins. I would imagine that as baserunning and defensive metrics continue to improve, it'll get better and better. But the main benefit of WAR is that it allows comparisons between hitters and pitchers. Not perfect, but again with enough of a sample size it's pretty good. And it's a cumulative stat, so takes into account the difference in playing time as well. With regards to the batter value vs pitcher value, one simple way to look at it is that for instance there are 20 position players with 4 fWAR or above, while there are only 8 pitchers with the same. 37 batters and 17 pitchers with 3+ fWAR. But in the #1 spot, with 7.4 fWAR is Chris Sale. #2 is Jose Altuve with 6.1. Which would be fairly consistent with what seems to be the general consensus as well: That position players in general have a bigger impact. But that a truly dominant pitcher who (And this part is crucial) goes deep into games (Sale is averaging 7 innings) can impact his team even more. Had Sale had the same numbers but averaging 6 innings, he'd be neck to neck with Altuve.

3 pitches to retire 3 batters certainly was efficient by Lemons! Also, might have been explained or announced earlier, but why is Luis Ortiz pitching in relief? Limiting innings? Because I hope they're not giving up on him as a starter; I certainly can't see any reason for doing that at this point.

I'm happy to keep Perez around as long as he is used as that super utility man only, not the primary backup for several positions. He has a .286 OBP, OPS+ of 82. That's not someone you want to give 400 PAs like we have in both 2016 and 2017. Very useful to have for double switches, pinch hitting (and pinch running) or defensive substitutions which all add value, but I'd like to see someone else as the primary backup for most positions; except maybe SS/2B. So I'd like to see 4 from Braun/Broxton/Santana/Brinson/Phillips in the OF and a corner infield type on the bench (Or a Neil Walker). If we have that, and those players are the ones who come in when someone needs a day off, then I'm fine with Perez to fill any holes beyond that. But yeah, perhaps Villar will be the one to fulfill that role going forward. It might be tough to justify keeping both around in that role though; if Villar doesn't stake a claim to be the starting 2B during the rest of the season (or fall/winter ball), there might be some tough decisions going forward.

I'm not too worried about either Brinson or Phillips. In their first stints they both looked quite lost, in the later ones a lot less so. Brinson in particular was unlucky, with a .107 BABIP. That's coming from someone with the 25th highest average exit velocity in the majors (Higher than, albeit barely, Harper, Freeman, Cespedes, Smoak just to name some good hitters) and someone who is a good runner to boot. Basically, even if he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing so far and doesn't adjust or improve, his result will improve significantly. I think we'll be fine letting them learn their trade in the majors, I don't think the adjustment will be too long or too rough. As for the question at hand: It's a difficult one to answer. The combination of speed, power and defense at a premium defense position is rare. But so are the awful on-base skills and the swing-and-miss; perhaps best illustrated by his contact rate on swings on pitches inside the zone: 68%. That's the worst among all major leaguers with 300+ PAs. By almost 5%. He's an extremely difficult player to rate properly. He can be an extremely valuable player if he ever "figures it out", but will he? And how does the extreme streaks affect value? If it does at all. I'd say what we do in the offseason depends on what people are offering. Since he'll have an option we don't absolutely have to make a move if we don't want to. Eventually we will, of course, but the roster crunch isn't going to be too bad this offseason. If noone is willing to blow us away for either Santana or Broxton, we start the season with Braun, Brinson, Phillips and Santana with Broxton in AAA. I'm fine with trading Santana for the right offer instead. I think that Santana will have the better career of the two, but it's also a matter of looking at how they're valued on the trading market in relation to our needs. A team looking for a DH and/or who are short on corner OFs might put a higher value on a player like Santana than the outfield-rich and DH-less Brewers do. But then again the midseason market for bat-first outfielders (Even if we're talking older rentals here as opposed to a controllable 25yo) wasn't great; remains to be seen what it'll be in the future.

Not really related to this specific last at bat, but Santana has been really poor recently. Keeps on whiffing so hard the helmet falls off. Hoping he'll snap out of it soon.

The sale of part of the MLB Advanced Media to Disney that just happened supposedly gave $50m to each of the MLB teams. Any chance that played into the possible willingness to go from paying $20m to $70m? It's a one-time income stream during a stretch of years when the team likely is very profitable anyway. Whether it's a new ST home or buying one of our minor league affiliates or investing in the Dominican facilities or in the scouting network or whatever it may be, I'm hoping the Brewers use these years of low payroll to invest in the future of the team in some capacity.

oh my!! I love Braun and Santana but they are the tops of your list for defense? I hope I'm misunderstanding this. Definitive, not defensive.

Swarzak unavailable still? Or perhaps Knebel is; and saving Swarzak for the 9th? Can't see why Barnes would be in if both of them are available. To answer my own question: Counsell giving him an extra day off to recover from the neck stiffness.

We're tied, and it's past the second inning. Chances of us scoring any more runs aren't great. Arcia was in the original lineup, scratched due to back spasms IIRC. Supposedly Villar is playing CF to get as many lefty bats in there as possible against Nova. Doesn't seem to be working all that well though. Nor do I see why he has to bat leadoff when he's in the lineup. Curious about Thames though, where would you bat him?

It's not saying he's a worse outfielder than them, it's basically saying that compared to other CFs he's worse than what Santana is compared to other RFs. Not that I really agree with that either tbf (I think Santana is an awful defender), but I would imagine that while Broxton has great range, he doesn't have a very good arm, which is probably where he falls off a bit. That being said, the main thing to notice here is that these defensive metrics are really only accurate over longer periods of time. Even 3/4 of a season isn't a whole lot.

I know I'm in the minority, but I'd take Sogard over Villar this year. I love his approach, he is a Brady Clark-like hitter that this team really lacks. The issue is that the choice isn't just about this year. Sogard is a free agent, Villar has team control. Villar has no options and will get claimed by another team for sure. Which will sound controversial to some, but he's a guy with years of control remaining and who has the ability to have a season like his 2016 season. It may be unlikely that he has it again, but if you can get that upside for free (Or well, $50k), you do it. So a non-contender with aplayer who they can option to AAA to make room, will claim him for sure. If he doesn't pan out, they lose nothing. So basically moving Villar to make room for Walker means that in 2018 we won't have either Walker, Villar or Sogard, and get nothing for any one of them. Moving Sogard to make room means we have Villar to either trade or give another shot, and we might well have Sogard in AAA still.