Humans Need Water

Super Troopers is one of my favorite movies. One of my favorite recent documentaries is Straight Outta Compton. Not everyone is going to like it because it is about gangster rap but the story is very much the American dream going from having nothing to having basically everything. NWA is one of my favorite groups - their greatest hits album is one of my all-time favorites along with MJ.

Or maybe it has to do with transitioning him to the pen and getting acclimated in that role at this level? He's been used every 4 days (like a rotation arm) and typically goes multiple innings. He's also typically pitched the 7th inning unless there was an unusual circumstance (rain delay, Chase injury). They clearly mapped out a schedule for him. Potentially until they feel he's transitioned to the point he can be used like a typical pen arm as there's still almost 3 months left in the season or maybe this is what it is all year. Either way, all the evidence suggests this being the reason for how he's been used, not his BB9 rate. This goes back to his final 2 starts in AAA where he went 2ip each start with standard 4 days off. Hader's BB9 is 7.3....I don't stare at one number believing it tells the entire story; I pay attention to how they pitch to certain hitters in certain situations. When he walks a guy it tends to be when nobody is on base as opposed to putting runners in scoring position. He walked the first batter he faced in his MLB career at 23. Maybe he was nervous/excited? Acceptable walk. His other walk that inning was intentional to Goldschmidt. That's out of his control. Then he walked Carpenter in a tie game (2 doubles already that day plus had 5 hits the previous 2 games against us). Acceptable walk. Then he walked McCutchen (had 3 hits already that day and killed us all series). Acceptable walk. Then he walked Votto when we were down 1 (he also killed us the entire series). Acceptable walk. He's got 10 BB this year in his 12.1 innings and I just listed 5 of them, which puts the other 5 at a 3.65 BB9 rate. He pitched 3 innings last outing and walked the 2nd batter he faced and the 2nd final batter he faced (both happened to be Gardner). He threw 2.2 innings in between those walks. If a pitcher walks a batter every 2.2 innings that translates to a 3.37 BB9 rate. Including Gardner I just listed 7 of his 10 BB.

When is Woodruff even coming back; it's been almost a month and I haven't heard any update on him. When Anderson is back he steps into the rotation and it's back to the normal 5. Woodruff is there as well and has been great outside of CS. Wang, on the surface, has earned an opportunity. But maybe the Brewers aren't sold yet on his stuff playing up at this level. As a fan I'd at least like to see him given an opportunity though, especially when they've run Scahill and Lopez out there already. Burnes could be a pen arm at some point too. Villar isn't scuffling at the moment. His last 5 games he's 8-21, 2bb, 3k. He's also altered his timing mechanism (leg kick) - it's a combo traditional leg kick (not as high as previously) and more Arcia-like where he doesn't lift rather just flicks it out there

Brinson, Hader, Phillips is easily superior to Brinson, Ortiz, Cordell. The former doesn't get Kershaw, not even close. But giving that up for Quintana, or even worse - Gray, would be a horrendous decision. I can't stress enough how horrendous and idiotic that would be

Brinson/Hader/Phillips is absolutely what I'd expect to give up for Quintana. For Gray....no way I'd even consider that. Stearns isn't going to rent for a calendar year then flip to recoup lost prospects. Far too much uncertainty. Focus on shoring up the pen. 2018 I'd hope to have Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips in the OF - Shaw, Arcia, Villar, Thames in IF - Aguilar, Perez, Vogt, (maybe Dubon? as Sogard is a FA) as bench. Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Davies, Hader, Woodruff to start the year with Burnes up at some point. Get the "best of the best" of our prospects up to the MLB level. At that point (2018 deadline or before 2019) you then trade your next tier of Top 100 labeled prospects for MLB help to build around all this young, controlled talent. There are current MLB guys that will eventually get pushed out and traded to help replenish the system as well as help the MLB team (ie Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Garza, Broxton, Perez, Villar, etc). This is why I don't trade Brinson/Hader/Phillips/Woodruff right now because we might have to give up 3 of them for one arm for 2-3yrs (and if there's an injury or regression then what was the point? Just to take a chance? Wouldn't be a very calculated decision for a Harvard man). Let them get up then trade the next tier of prospects and build around them.

Ivan wouldn't play that's why. Rivera is the 25th man and will sit there most of the time.

Is 780 in the same vacinity as 800? Because that's what he had in A as a rookie. What about 792? Had that in Brevard (A+). 768 in AA (Biloxi) last year. All these amazing hitting environments he's been in. And he's done that without hitting HR or having a crazy awesome BB rate, which means he's hitting (and pounding gaps). Subtract CS and he's probably around a 290 minor league hitter with 800 OPS (800+ for A and AA career...and AAA for that matter). He needs an opportunity and he's blocked here. He's been under appreciated and under the radar because of his age but he can hit

Oakland isn't going to just accept our junk and a few OK prospects for one of the top available deadline arms. Cooper is having a hell of a year in AAA but he's 26 and has yet to do anything in the major leagues. Guerra is struggling big time and has one year wonder written all over him. Broxton is a decent player and Peralta is a decent prospect but they can't be centerpieces in a deal for Gray. Oakland will want at least Hader or Woodruff plus another top prospect. "This is why I would ASK them....". It's not an offer if you're kicking the tires about what type of package a team might be interested in (i.e. all prospects or MLB/prospects combo). Just because someone is one of the top available players at their position at the deadline doesn't mean teams should overpay for that specific talent. Guerra has outperformed Gray the past 1.5yrs. MLB starters with 4-5yrs of control are worth plenty. Broxton is a 5 tool CF who flashes above average as a player but is inconsistent at this point, which is why he's average. I bet you were still calling Guerra our "ace" 2-3wks ago. Now they're both junk? Cooper has hit at every level and, while not a HR threat, will hit gaps, get on base at a decent clip and play solid defense. Not every position player needs to have a 800+ OPS to start and contribute (and his worst OPS seasons are like 765-770 area in a Biloxi type environment). While he lacks MLB experience, he's MLB ready. Just needs an opportunity. Peralta has been nothing shy of very impressive the past 1.5yrs between A, A+ and now past couple starts in AA (as a 21yr old). He's leapfrogged Diplan, Ponce, Lopez in our system. I initially thought about Cordell in place of Cooper because the A's OF is brutal and there's no prospects. He's basically MLB ready too and him and Broxton would start immediately and be upgrades on both sides of the ball compared to what they have now. I also had Coulombe in there with Gray but typed Doolittle instead for some reason. Coulombe doesn't have near the track record of Doolittle but has more control and is younger. I don't know why I even bothered with this as I don't even want us to trade for a rotation arm. I want them to turn to Woodruff if need be. Although I like Coulombe as a controllable lefty pen arm and he could be had for a Cordell + 1?

I'd be shocked if he ever made it back up with us. Otherwise Scahill is the obvious answer

Both are starting caliber players. Thames locked up for 3 more years and Aguilar 5. Cooper is a great trade candidate at this time as if anything ever happened to either then Shaw can slide over and we'll still be covered at 3b with other players. I don't think Thames is over his head since I predicted 850+ OPS and he's shown his patience at the plate. He expanded his zone once Braun went down, which he needed to stop doing and just take a walk and pass it down. Aguilar was a legit bat that was blocked in CLE and just needed an opportunity. I think what Counsell has done this year using both players has been really good and shouldn't be changed. It's fun playing interleague games with both in the lineup together

I'm 100% with you. What many don't realize is that the A's have nothing for OF prospects. Their highest ranked OF prospect is at #8 in their system and he started the year in the DSL. Their #15 is a 1B/OF who struggles against LHP and strikes out a lot and projects to be a platoon player. Their next OF is at #21. I think OFs, especially ones who can play CF, will have a lot of value to them. The reality is that the Brewers have a ton of OF prospects, plus Santana (only 24) on the major league roster. Some are going to have to be traded sooner or later, preferably while they still have value. That's my impetus for trading Ray now. I think he has more value now than he will two years from now. So who should the Brewers trade their OF prospects for and when? Why wait and risk them losing value? Why not trade for a pitcher under 30 with multiple years of control? You're right about the A's not having much for OF prospects but their current MLB OF is also old and sucks. At least Khris Davis hits HR but the other 2 are junk. And their rotation is decimated with injuries right now. Puk/Holmes are 1.5-2yrs away if they move quick and they're the highest rated SP prospects (I'd personally take Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes over both of those guys). This is why I would ask them about a Guerra/Broxton/Cooper/Peralta type package for Gray/Doolittle. They get 2 MLB starters between rotation/CF and Cooper can spell Alonso next year (FA). Peralta is a young live arm in AA at 21. Gray has 2yrs and Doolittle 3yrs. Cooper doesn't hurt us long-term due to Thames/Aguilar plus Shaw can always move there eventually since we have him for 4yrs still. Brinson takes over CF right away then but we bolster rotation with Gray and pen with Doolittle. No idea if A's are even open to that type of deal but hopefully we kick the tires on some of our MLB players (ie Broxton) in trades and not just prospects

I agree that the Brewers can't lose 2 of the their top SP prospects in any trade but I strongly disagree that trading Brinson is a hit the Brewers can take. He has the highest ceiling of anyone in our system and plays a premium position very well (not only what I believe but also the overwhelming general consensus). Harrison may be the best athlete of the prospect group but that doesn't automatically translate to being the best player or having the highest ceiling. His ceiling also certainly isn't higher than Ray nor will he surpass Brinson. Since you asked the question about Harrison vs Brinson age/level I'll answer it for you.... Harrison 2016 - 20 yr old in A and 1.5yrs young - 221/294/631 (75 games) 2017 - 21yr old in A and .2yrs young - 265/359/834 (63 games) A+ and 1.6yrs young - 270/325/811 (9 games) Brinson 2014 - 20yr old in A and 1.5yrs young - 335/405/985 (43 games) A+ and 2.9yrs young - 246/307/656 (46 games) 2015 - 21yr old in A+ and 1.6yrs young - 337/416/1044 (64 games) AA and 3.2yrs young - 291/328/873 (28 games) AAA and 5.8yrs young - 433/541/1107 (8 games) AZFL and 1.2yrs young - 300/408/983 (11 games) *then rated #15/16 overall after that season Harrison's not even remotely close to being in the same ballpark

Cause you are assuming the future with the apple cart will be much better. People say it is too soon, but what if this becomes a decent shot? What if Santana isn't for real? What if Shaw is the next Villar? What if Nelson/Anderson go back to mediocre pitchers next year? Then next year we are a 75 win team and then then we fight with .500 the next... If you have a shot at the division you better make an effort to improve your team. Maybe you don't think we should trade major pieces for a Quintana, but a back end starter or bullpen arm is just as important for a team. The Cubs looked set up for many great teams and the season after winning it all they are flirting with a <.500 record at the deadline. People are already overly attached to our farm system when we have made a competitive team hardly touching it. We have plucked just a few players for from it and have 20+ legit prospects sitting down there. I doubt this is our best team we will have in our competitive window, but I'm not sure how many chances we will get to win the division and this is a good shot. I see zero indicators that Santana isn't for real or that Shaw is a different player (he's been the same guy since he came up outside of the 2 months after Hill was acquired and that's easily explained away). I've always been a big Santana guy; can flat out hit. Prior to 2016 Villar did nothing that would indicate those were the numbers he'd put up across the board. Apples and oranges but I get your point. I agree with you on Nelson and Chase. It's definitely not guaranteed they're going to perform at this level again next year or beyond. But for next year I don't think you factored in Hader/Woodruff entering the rotation (potentially Burnes by the end of next season) or Brinson starting in CF over Broxton or Villar bouncing back being much improved upon this season or our pen being much better in the first half next year vs this year, etc. There's a lot of other variables to factor in. I want nothing to do with Quintana at this point in time. Fast forward 2yrs and if we still have the same type of talent in the farm system then I'd make this move. It doesn't make sense right now as the team doesn't "need" a rotation arm with Woodruff as the top internal option ready to go and us not even getting the top prospects in place at the MLB level yet. They mentioned the additions of starters that led to playoff appearances in team history but this team's rotation is different. Other than 3-4 starts for a few players they've all been really solid. Prior to Greinke/Marcum in 2011 we had bad Bush/Parra/Cappy/Doug Davis eating up 2 rotation spots. In 2008 an awful Cappy/Vargas was replaced by (decent) Parra/CC (others mixed in). That's a massive difference in production both years and doesn't relate to this year's team. I'd prefer the Brewers just focus on 1-2 solid, not great, pen arms as that doesn't give up any elite talent. If they're ready to move full time to Brinson in CF then Broxton by himself or packaged could bring back a solid pen arm with control. Other prospects I think we should dangle are Ponce, Gatewood, Harrison, Lopez, Cooper

Ian Happ, at 20yrs old and 1.4yrs young for level in A ball, slashed 241/315/763 in almost 40 games then after the following season hit 236 with 778 OPS in the AZFL against top competition. I'll use Diaz for example this year, I'm not going to say he's disappointing when he's hitting in a tough environment and had a 21 game stretch (June) that was really, really bad. Outside of that stretch he's hitting 263/343/812 as a 2b being 1.5yrs young for level. It's about development. A player's numbers can say 100/200/300 but they could be consistently having good ABs and that doesn't show up in the box scores. That's what matters most in the minors. Sure, but thats not my point. Look at every bat the Brewers have traded for the last couple years. Big numbers. When you have competition for these pitchers, slash lines matter. Again, not the whole story, but a factor. I understand what you're saying and those would be the prospects that would go for a Quintana trade (Brinson, Hader/Woodruff types). The players we gave up in those other trades you mentioned were more consistent than a Sonny Gray. Lucroy was an AS catcher and constant top 5 performer at his position, Gomez was an AS/GG CF, Thornburg was a beast in his 2 months closer stint and good prior to that (relievers at the deadline bring absurd deals though). Ray and Erceg have 120 games and Clark 130 games as professionals in full season ball. They still carry plenty of value.

Ian Happ, at 20yrs old and 1.4yrs young for level in A ball, slashed 241/315/763 in almost 40 games then after the following season hit 236 with 778 OPS in the AZFL against top competition. I'll use Diaz for example this year, I'm not going to say he's disappointing when he's hitting in a tough environment and had a 21 game stretch (June) that was really, really bad. Outside of that stretch he's hitting 263/343/812 as a 2b being 1.5yrs young for level. It's about development. A player's numbers can say 100/200/300 but they could be consistently having good ABs and that doesn't show up in the box scores. That's what matters most in the minors.

I hear ya lol

Do you actually believe that each team reads BA's rankings? Each team has their own scouting department and evaluators. That's who they consult with and listen to. They think it's cool when their players are on the Top 100 list and that's where it ends for them. So what youre indicating is they read the lists.... If Im with the White Sox trading Q and want Ray, isnt arguing how he's no longer in top 100 on this list a win for my side by devaluing Ray since others have devalued him? Stearn: we'll offer Ray, Ortiz, and Clark for Q. White Sox: Ray doesnt suit our headline to trade Q and Luis Ortiz isnt a big enough headliner. 1 top 100 prospect isnt getting this deal done. Sorry youve drafted bad OFs the last 2 1st picks. They arent 1st round talents. No, I'm not indicating that. I was clear in what I said. Anyone can "read" that list if they aren't blind. That doesn't mean they take it as the Gold Standard and reference it when making trades. It's great for marketing their org and system and nothing more. A player on the Top 100 list could very well not be rated that highly by another team's scouting department. BA, BP, MLB.com aren't surveying EVERY scout when comprising their lists. "Sorry you've drafted bad OFs the last 2 1st picks". I didn't draft dick!! Sorry you (I'm literally speaking about you now) can't see real talent and, instead, do what everybody on this planet is capable of doing - burying their in the sand looking at numbers on a website believing that's reality for every player. It's fun listening to you bash 21/22 year olds in A+ as if their careers are already cemented for them

So basically any prospect that has their stock down you'd be willing to trade only? I understand that certain prospects are our favorites but I think Stearns will need to be a little more open minded if we plan on adding a significant piece. If not, it's Jhoulys Chacin or BUST! Cordell, Phillips, Nottingham, Ponce, Peralta, Coulter all have their stock up from last year. Bickford is neutral

I would absolutely say no if I'm Stearns. Woodruff can be better than Gray. Probably not 2014/2015 Gray but most certainly 2016/2017 Gray. The issue here is you firmly believe Gray is better than Quintana when Quintana has consistently performed at a high level longer than Gray has. Then you add Ray on top of that? No way I'd do that

Do you actually believe that each team reads BA's rankings? Each team has their own scouting department and evaluators. That's who they consult with and listen to. They think it's cool when their players are on the Top 100 list and that's where it ends for them.

Phillips dropped off their list after last year too. How's that working out? Well he is having a good year and still not on it...so... I'd be interested to know Brett Phillips general value. He has had a good bounce back campaign though it is in a Colorado environment. Would be one of the better prospects I would look to package for deadline help. Hader is up there too along with Diaz/Erceg. Not that I don't like them, but I find them more expendable. Only concern with Hader is I believe he could be big help for the bullpen the rest of the year. Not a fan of addition by subtraction. I have seen Domingo Santana as a possibility and for the same reason I don't want to trade him. Phillips is a Top 100 caliber player whether he's actually on a list or not. He was 57 on their list heading into last year so not sure how he doesn't bounce back on it after what he's done thus far. He just turned 23 and is hitting 270/323/809 on the road. He's been great every month except June, a month in which he was up and down having a stretch where he barely played but his numbers still weren't that bad. I get that the PCL is one of the best offensive environments in all of baseball including MLB but at what point do players get credit for performing? The greatest affects are pitches not breaking as hard/sharp and fly balls gaining like 5% in distance I think. Ground balls and line drives through the IF aren't affected. Line drives down the line or in the gap aren't hits solely because of CS. He's still a great defender with a hose too. This rant is just making a point; not attacking you in any way so I don't want you to potentially feel like that. I'd love to know what Phillips general value is. If I had to guess I'd say it's pretty favorable; that the majority see him as a future average to above average starting OF (his defense helps big time too). I believe everyone in the system is expendable except Brinson. I don't see the Brewers parting with him. I think Hader gets every chance to start but there's still a chance he doesn't stick there long-term so he could be an option to be traded too but I agree with you that losing him in a trade to acquire a SP would be a blow to the pen no doubt and that's the area that needs the most attention. If Hader's going then he needs to target a couple relievers as well.

Phillips dropped off their list after last year too. How's that working out?

Prado is a better hitter but overall I don't think it makes sense to give anyone up when Perez has performed in his role and has been a part of this team's culture and makeup for a bit now combined with Sogard being great in the IF too (also a lefty). Sogard, Aguilar, Perez, Vogt (and Bandy earlier) have been very good so I don't think we should target a bench player. And Shaw should not be platooned. 1-2 pen arms seems to be the biggest need (I personally would target 2 arms if they plan on keeping 8 in the pen). I can see Broxton traded, either by himself or packaged with 1-2 prospects. Brinson up in CF playing every day with Phillips up a month later (Sept call up). The more notable prospects I would use as trade bait are Cordell, Diplan, Ponce, Gatewood, Harrison (and Cooper). Throw Lara in the back-end of a deal too. I'm not opposed to trading Ray or Clark, only because there are so many starting caliber OF in front of them who can be just as good if not better, but I'm definitely not convinced now is the time to do that. Right now they're learning and working on their games. Once that flip switches they'll be more valuable players and in the upper minors - we have the time to allow that to happen - plus we'll have a much better idea a year from now on the OF situation in MLB with Brinson/Phillips as well as Ray/Clark.

The Brewers being in 1st has nothing to do with the HR Derby. Sure he's earned an opportunity to be in it but there can only be 8 participants. 7 made the AS team (Thames didn't) and Bour was in Final 5 vote (Thames wasn't) while being a hometown player (Thames isn't).. Where's the problem? I think Molina being the backup catcher over Pina (and a couple other players if not Pina) is a bigger issue. I think Shaw not being in the Final 5 vote over Bryant is a bigger issue.

Why does every trade proposal include us getting a rotation arm in return? I don't see the immediately need to upgrade from Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Garza, Davies. Especially when we have Woodruff waiting in the wings this year. People were DYING for Woodruff to be up earlier now it's crickets because this team is clicking hard and looking really good so now all of a sudden people are turning to giving up several top prospects for one rotation arm. A solid pen arm is what they need most. All last year it was people whining about Phillips and Nottingham and now it's turned to the Mudcats team. Zero patience here. Zero big picture thinking