Humans Need Water

The rotation is Hader's long-term home unless they're extremely short-sighted and think 4 bad starts in AAA this year is all the evidence they need to determine his future in MLB. But it's best for the "team" for him to stay in the pen for 2017 to team up with Knebel and Barnes at the back. Especially when someone like Woodruff can step in the rotation once he's off the DL. In the meantime, there are other internal options to fill in for a couple starts or Stearns can grab someone off the scrap heap to take the final 40 man spot. Side vent: Hader has thrown 8.1ip on the year and has improved each outing. He has 3BB in his last 5ip. 2 of those were McCutchen (was killing the ball) and Votto (last night). People can continue to reference his BB9 but I'll gladly put those guys on base in close games when they're killing it in order to get the next guy out. Hader's given up 1 hit thus far, is getting his first exposure to MLB and is in a role he hasn't been in since 2015 with Houston (when he was mainly a rotation guy still too). People shouldn't throw around his BB9 rate in 8.1ip of work without using it in the same context (on the surface) previously in his career. Like maybe his past 264ip between A+ (2014) and AA (2015/2016) where he has a 3.14 BB9. And yes, pitching in CS is pointless. Guerra was 3.2 last year and is 5.4 this year. How many people saying Guerra needs to be removed because he's walking people left and right. Espino and Jungmann are what they are. I'd personally rather give Wilkerson a shot until Woodruff is back to take this spot.

Ho hum just another night of nobody mentioning Nottingham. Who continues to kill it. I guess his season in AA as a 21yr old last year was just to convincing for everyone on what type of player he would be

The stat cast version agrees with this, Brewers rank near the bottom. There stats include difficulty of catch etc so they are a bit better. Not sure where to find those numbers, I just listen to their podcast. Is it based on where the player's starting point is or is it assuming everyone is playing straight up?

4 starts at AA...pump the breaks. It's not just 4 starts though, it's also what he did at A+. Not to mention last season. I'm not sure I remember a Brewer minor league pitcher having been this dominant for this long consistently. Not sure another 4-8 starts will change that. Think MLB won't happen this year but very well could finish in AAA & then compete next season for job. Bigger question, is he our #1 pitching prospect? Didn't both of you just have this conversation last week? Nothing has changed except another week went by. Apparently you already forgot what Woodruff did last year in AA too while experiencing a family tragedy. Burnes is an advanced college arm who was a legitimate 2nd Rd talent. At .7 years young in A last year and .8 in A+ this year he should be dominating. It's been 3.5 starts in AA. I get the excitement. I love Burnes and was high on him when selected but let him pitch a dozen games in AA first. He's not leapfrogging Hader (#1 LHP), Ortiz and Woodruff because of what he's done in his first full pro season between A+ and AA when everyone else has more experience and success at the upper levels than he does. I highly doubt he's pushing for a rotation spot next early next summer considering Hader and Woodruff didn't and our rotation coming in this year had an absurd amount of question marks. Next year's rotation should be better than this year.

I haven't watched him a lot this year, but from what I have seen from last year and read his stuff isn't anything special. His stats are obviously pretty flashy this year, but not sure if that is because of vast improvements from what was seen last year. Always seemed like a back end starter in my eyes or a reliever. I've only seen highlights on the Brewers Prospects twitter feed but he's sitting low-90s fastball bumping up to 95 with a slider/change. His numbers this year are almost identical to what they were last year in A. He's had 2 bad outings from a walk perspective (13 in 10 innings) otherwise his BB9 is at where is was last year the other 46 innings. He's better than Ponce and is a legitimate rotation prospect right now. He just turned 21 so will be interesting to see what he does in AA as he was hit last year when promoted to A+ and his BB numbers rose as well.

Doesn't matter if he won ACC DPOY or GG because "some scouts" say he's not good defensively due to being a tiny human being and not having speed (yet the general consensus is he has excellent instincts, but apparently that's ultimately irrelevant for their final opinion. Quickness is never mentioned by those folks either - just speed - as if they're one in the same). Don't pay attention to the fact that almost 99% of the balls he touches a play is made. Fielding/throwing with accuracy isn't related to playing defense, right? Can't find the video of it but TCU CF/RF leadoff hitter Wade (Indians 5th rd pick) led off Bot 8 last night hitting a bullet one hopper to the backside of Hairston (shading up middle) and he made a fully stretched diving play throwing him out by a full step. That's with an arm that isn't 100% yet either. Just another example of him not being a good defender.

The same medical staff that went along with Thornburg not having surgery... I'm aware a 2b won't throw as much or as hard as a pitcher, but a 2b will have many more opportunities to throw at awkward angles without proper form, which is just as dangerous as a pitching, if not more because they are not keeping their arms warm like pitchers do. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but I am in favor of taking the most cautious approach in these situations. MRI's aren't perfect for reading how the injury is, actually doing an exploratory is a lot more sure fire way of ensuring it's healed properly. Regarding the highlighted part of your comment, what percent of 2b have elbow injuries due to throwing at awkward angles compared to pitchers? Do pitchers all throw from the same arm slot or do they range from over the top to submarine? Do 2b throw secondary pitches across the diamond that put more stress on their elbow/shoulder? How exactly do 2b not keep their arms warm during games? These guys throw nonstop. Before BP, during IF drills (during BP), directly prior to the game and between every inning. A 2b, or any IF for that matter, throwing fourseamers from a variety of arm angles isn't anywhere near close to being more strenuous on the elbow/shoulder than what a pitcher does on the mound. And the overwhelming majority of IF throws are when they're fully set whether they're throwing across the diamond or flicking the wrist for a force out. The Brewers said upon speaking with the Drs that he doesn't need surgery. Where did you hear that the decision was made solely based on a MRI? I would be shocked if a MLB team's medial team (more than 1 Dr) solely looked at a MRI and didn't perform a comprehensive exam. Even if the outcome changes moving forward and surgery is required the recovery isn't anywhere near close to that of a pitcher - he can have it at season's end and be ready to go by April. In the meantime he can DH to stay in the lineup while also taking grounders and doing other glove work without throwing.

Bandy is 5yrs younger and a backup. Vogt is 5yrs older and falling off the planet. Him being able to 1b is irrelevant as we have Thames, Aguilar, Shaw, Perez and they're all much, much better options at 1b than Vogt. The Brewers catching situation is just fine. Pina is already getting most of the game time lately but he still needs his time off. Bandy has played what amounts to 1 full season at this level so he's going to have his bad streaks. If Susac can get going after his injuries/migraine issues then they can always be swapped. And pitch framing is overrated

He'll be in arbitration in 2020 at age 25. Since May 1 he's hitting 277/331/693 (BA/OBP/OPS). He's made visible improvements since the start of the season on both sides of the ball and by the time 2019 comes around he could be a Top 5 SS. His potential since the day he was up here has been blatantly obvious (just like Santana). All they need is a couple full seasons to put it all together given they're both very young. Arcia's currently 10th in BA, 11th in OBP, 13th in OPS in MLB at his position. He definitely has more power than he's displayed overall thus far and that will come with more patience and development at the plate. At 22yrs old at this level his opposite field approach is insanely impressive. Even if he stayed in AAA this year to work on his hitting that doesn't mean he'd have a seamless transition to MLB in 2018. He needs MLB experience, not AAA, which is why he's here.

I watched Sing Street after seeing this thread. I thought it was next to awful. The music was solid and the big brother had some good lines but the rest of it was insanely boring. La La Land absolutely destroys this movie. Someone above mentioned That Thing You Do - good movie. Hidden gems - The Hollywood Knights, High Fidelity, Super Troopers, Adventures in Babysitting (87), The Monster Squad, Dazed and Confused, Garden State, Stir of Echoes. There's so many. Documentaries usually get overlooked by people in general but there's an absurd amount of excellent one's to see - Dear Zachary, Waiting for Superman, Enron: Smartest Guys in the Room, The Invisible War, The Hunting Ground, Senna, Chasing Ice, Paradise Lost (trilogy on West Memphis Three - awesome), SOMM (and SOMM: Into the Bottle), What Happened to Aunt Diane, Jiro Dreams of Sushi and The Thin Blue Line just to name more than a few

I expect at some point between now and the end of July that Peralta is bumped to AA with Ortiz up to AAA. Derby should be in AAA too. I would bump T.Williams to AAA for Aug then up in the pen with Brewers in Sept. Ponce is either bumped to AA or traded to get a pen arm next month

Why would the Rangers make this trade when they know if they are patient Stearns will most likely DFA him sooner rather than later? I doubt there are many teams waiting breathlessly for Peralta to be released. Why would anyone give up anything for Peralta when he's done nothing in his 4+ year career? It's not like you can hope he returns to form. He doesn't have a form to return to. Because if someone believes they can get the most out of his talent he could be a decent pen piece and with his value being very low it wouldn't take much to acquire him. There's plenty of examples where a change of scenery combined with a tweak here or there brings someone's talent out. 95-96 fastball with above average slider plays just fine at this level. His stuff is there the rest of the package isn't but that doesn't mean it can't be

If Stearns believes that much in Cooper's bat I can see him trading Aguilar. An AL should be interested given the DH spot. He's showing this year he can hit MLB pitching and be a contributor. That said, that's a big picture decision that affects both short and long-term given the age/contract/control/how the MLB team is constructed moving forward/etc when it comes to Thames, Aguilar, Cooper. I think the best option is keeping all 3 at least through some point next year. If an injury happens to Thames or Aguilar then you have a good option ready to fill in with Cooper. I don't think that's a wasted spot on the 40 either if that happens.

He can also play SS, 3b pretty solid as well as be a versatile lefty contact bat off the bench. No idea if any playoff team "needs" that but that's what he can bring to a playoff team

As of present day the Brewers should find spots for Dubon, Nottingham, Peralta, Wang, Cooper. I like Wilkerson and Ramsey as well but not sure how it plays out with them. Coulter I could care less about. Don't care if he's protected, unprotected or traded. He'll never take a spot ahead of Braun, Broxton, Santana, Brinson, Phillips, Cordell and maybe not even Reed (mainly due to his high on-base skills and versatility playing all 3 OF spots well). I think it's best to trade him as eventually Ray will be on his heels too.

Yes, but I was bummed we gave up Haniger and Banda for a mediocre veteran like Parra. Still seems to have worked out overall Yeah, I'd much rather have Haniger and Banda than Davies. Don't get me wrong, I respect a lot of what Melvin did, it's just hard for me to give him too much credit for a good trade when a bad trade set it up. It's also much easier to look back at a trade 3yrs later and decide who you'd rather have. The trade was fair for both sides at the time. Parra also already had 2 GG awards, played all 3 OF spots extremely well and had a solid bat from the left side (minus power). He was very good for us. Banda was a 10rd pick who showed no signs of becoming a Top 100 at that time. You trade based on the information you have at the time.

Melvin brought in Davies for Parra too

Knebel's on pace for 80ip. If he can't handle that at 25yrs old then he shouldn't be pitching. Jeffress threw 68 in 2015. Thornburg threw 67 last year. Andrew Miller threw 74 last year and is on pace for 86 this year. There are several other closers on pace for 74-86ip and a few more on pace for low-70s. Keep harping on how garbage Garza is when he had 1-2-3 innings every inning he pitched except the 2nd (sweet play Broxton - no mention of that of course because his last name isn't Garza). Guy has been solid all year thus far. You probably wanted Chase gone a month ago and now you're on your knees. "what have you done for me the last 24hrs" mentality on this board (ie Barnes is a candidate to go to AAA and work on things). Really? Because he had 2 bad outings in his past 16? Can anybody watch a game anymore without whining about someone

I don't remember saying definitively, but yah...I will trust a bunch of general scouting reports over an award, easily. You don' have to use the term "definitively" to get that context across. "You" will trust a bunch of scouting reports over an award but that doesn't mean it's fact regarding his defense. But you're saying it's fact. Baseball America wrote an article 2.5 months ago saying "Long known primarily for his slick defense, Hairston has developed into one of Louisville’s best hitters". Is BA fabricating this notion that his defense has been his calling card? Do they not speak with scouts and other coaches? Louisville's Head Coach in that article - "This is my 25th year (as a college coach),” McDonnell said. “I’ve had good college shortstops, I’ve had Zack Cozart. He (Hairston) does things I’ve never had a shortstop do. When you get to see him every single day, the plays he makes, I enjoy it. I smile. I try to take credit sometimes, even though I really don’t deserve the credit, but I’m going to try to take the credit because I coach the infielders.” Sure, coaches praise their players, as they should. But someone who's been around the game that long doesn't make comments like that without believing it. Cozart was also said to be arguably the top defensive college SS in his draft class according to scouts. "He's not a big guy, necessarily, but he does play good defense. He's not tall, but he's fairly strong," said Brewers scouting director Tod Johnson. "He moves real well. He can really pick it at shortstop. We're real excited about the defensive tools." Yeah. Sounds like he's not good at all nor deserving of his award. Hairston can stick at SS but reality is he'll play all over the IF in the minors because he's versatile and gets the job done.

I have watched him and he has not located his pitches well. Every time I watched him he couldn't locate any of his pitches, but notably his off speed stuff. He constantly had to use his fastball to just blow past hitters. Even his best games were masked by the fact AAA hitters couldn't hit his fastball. Won't work consistently at the MLB level and definitely not as a starter. You can take everything and throw it out the window if you want. Clearly the Brewers don't like Hader as a starter as much as Woodruff this year. The Brewers wouldn't punish Hader for working on pitches so it is more than that. I also don't believe he was ever working on pitches that heavily in Colorado. If that was the case they would promote him to the MLB roster where he can't do that. Release point. Release Point. Release point. It's this simple. CS is an awful environment for him and he's basically said so prior to this season. Respectfully, the Brewers might (which you don't know for fact) view Woodruff as a better starter this year but who cares. We are talking about the future. Hader fills an excellent role for the MLB team this year in the pen. And yes, it was publicly written or verbally stated in an interview somewhere that Hader was working on his change this year. Having Hader skip AAA and sit in the pen was being floated around by folks outside the Brewers org before this year because of how bad CS is. The Brewers aren't "punishing" Hader for putting him in their pen. They don't have any lefties. CS sucks for his skill set. He can step in and be an immediate upgrade over almost every pen arm. It's beyond logical.

People keep harping on "Woodruff had to pitch in the same environment". Great. I'll turn that around and ask you why does Suter constantly have success in CS and outperform Woodruff when his skill set and ceiling don't come close to rivaling Woodruff's? Because he's a different pitcher - he's fastball/change mixing in a curve. CS doesn't affect his skill set. Woodruff is a different pitcher than Hader. He's mainly fastball and mixes in his secondary pitches, which don't move anywhere near as much as Hader's. Woodruff isn't focusing on developing a pitch whereas Hader was focusing on developing his changeup. And when your release point is constantly changing between outings because of your huge movement it's going to result in some terrible outings because your release point for that pitch just isn't affected, it then snowballs to your other pitches and your mechanics overall. It's partly why his numbers last year are better than this year as he wasn't focusing on developing a pitch - and look at this game logs instead of painting with a broad brush. Hader 2014 - 3.3 BB9 in 103ip in A+ then threw 20ip in AA with 7 BB9 2015 - 3.0 BB9 in 104ip in AA then threw 16ip in AZFL with 3.9 BB9 2016 - 3.0 BB9 in 57ip in AA then CS happened How exactly does one come to the conclusion that Hader can't throw strikes to save his life when the past 3yrs and 264 innings prove his BB9 is 3.1? Then in the same breathe you turn around and complain what a dumping ground CS is. You can't have it both ways. Of course Hader can still improve his control from where he was prior to AAA but speaking as if he's Nuke Laloosh (pre-Susan Sarandon) is just absurd and there's ZERO evidence to back it up. He was the #1 LHP and one of the best overall rotation arms coming into this season and some of you think he's permanently in the pen for his future because he has zero control and doesn't "deserve" a chance to start solely because he had FOUR bad starts this year in AAA??? MY....OH...MY. His other 6 starts he's combined for 33ip, 22h, 11er, 19bb, 31k, 3.00 ERA, 6.0 H9, 5.18 BB9, 8.45 K9. I didn't include his final 2 starts because he was limited to 2ip otherwise these numbers would look even better. His BB issues have clearly been explained and that aside how exactly has he been awful in AAA? 4 of Woodruff's last 6 starts have been garbage (5 on the season in 12 starts) but because his BB9 is lower that means that he deserves a shot to start and Hader doesn't? That means that Woodruff is a starter moving forward and Hader is relegated to the pen? You'll see Hader in the rotation next year. Whether he ever ends up in the pen long-term is up to a combination of his performance or personal decision to move there. But he'll absolutely be given every opportunity to start and for obvious reasons. Woodruff can also sit in the Brewers pen this year just like Hader and get plenty of innings thrown while spot starting (I'd have Woodruff spot start because Hader is lefty and it benefits the team to have that as the pen option in high leverage situations). If a starter is traded and/or the Brewers have an outside chance of a playoff spot then you'll see them in the rotation gaining experience there heading into next season. Now, Stearns could also pick someone else up off waivers then option Woodruff back down if they want him to start there then come back up to spot start or if there's injury. Drake is another guy that can easily be gone. The other pen arms are more talented regardless of performance.

1 - what is it about his hit tool that you don't see? 2 - please breakdown his mechanics as to why they're a mess 3 - uptick in velocity doesn't have to come from adding weight. it can be created with simple mechanical adjustments or one's starting position on the mound (ie Burnes saw an uptick this year by squaring his body toward home plate vs previously almost simulating coming out of the stretch when he was in his windup). When these guys are drafted the first thing I do is watch as much video on youtube as possible then turn to the scouting reports then what the Brewers say about them. Hiura doesn't have the sexiest swing but the kid flat out barrels up the ball line to line and has surprising power for his stature and swing (12HR senior year in HS and on pace for 16 this past year if given 500 PA). His swing is almost identical from his HS days to now. There's video on him at both SS (HS) and 2b (Prospect Pipeline) so you can get a quick feel for how he moves, fielding mechanics, throwing, etc. He looks like he buries the ball in his hand when he throws. His arm strength reminds me of Scooter. He's not ultra-athletic but is fluid in his movement. His brains allow his skill set to play up as well. Lutz I like a lot too. Wouldn't be surprised if they make him into more of Phillips (standing taller and potentially adding a leg kick). If they do he'll need to get that timing down and it'll take a bit of time to adjust. From the point his hands go back through the rest of the swing he's mechanically pretty good. There will be adjustments made but nothing overly significant. He's definitely more fluid than he looks; he's going to have to make sure he's increasing his flexibility as he matures too as he's got a good strong build. I like Lemons too. The ball flies out of this guy's hand and could have several strong offerings in time. I really like what I see and am excited to see what he works toward becoming.

Big picture is Scahill isn't good (neither is Drake). Their talents abilities are the worst of the pen group. As long as CS is still our AAA and there are 1-2 "fillers" in the pen then this seems to be the new strategy and rightfully so. Have the top prospects take over pen roles to get them out of CS while gaining MLB experience and contributing to the team that way. Hader and Woodruff should both be in the pen now the rest of the year and if there needs to be a spot start then pick one of them to do so.

Nottingham up to 281/361/799, 12 doubles, 1HR, 11rbi (135 WRC+) since May 1. 7.3% BB and 18.3% K rates over that span too combined with the very good defensive as well.

Why would you have him leapfrog Ortiz as of right now? I had Burnes slotted as the 4th best rotation arm prospect in our system entering the season (Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff ahead of him). Mainly because I don't trust Lopez in any capacity and I see both Diplan/Ponce as potential future pen arms (plus Burnes was a legitimate 2nd rd talent). And as of today my top 4 rankings haven't changed. But when Burnes was a sophomore in college, Ortiz was dominating A ball then threw a handful of innings out of the pen in the AZFL. When Burnes was a junior, Ortiz was putting up great numbers in A+ then made the jump to AA that year showing flashes of brilliance at 20yrs old. Burnes is outstanding this year (on target to be minor league pitcher of the year) but he only has 2.5 career AA starts and is 1yr older than Ortiz, who is currently putting up a H9 of 5.9 and K9 at 8.2 with a 3.02 ERA in 11 AA starts. Ortiz's BB9 for career is lower than Burnes but this year I'm assuming Ortiz is working on controlling certain secondary pitches hence the increase in BB9 (and WHIP as a result). Performance absolutely matters but so does pure stuff (Ortiz is better), projectability (Ortiz), age (Ortiz younger) and other variables. If Burnes continues to light up AA I could see him getting a couple AAA starts at the end of the season to get him exposure to that level heading into next year. He's not going to be a Sept call-up and he's not going to be given a chance to make the rotation in spring. He might not have any AAA experience at that point plus Guerra, Garza, Nelson, Chase, Davies, Hader, Woodruff are still sitting there next April (at this point). Burnes could make the Top 100 lists heading into next year and should be a Top 10 in the org.