Humans Need Water

To be fair, there were lots of people saying this continually in the IGTs and elsewhere, not just the first 10 days. General consensus was enjoy it while it lasts, could last a week or two months, who knows. But yea, it is comical that somehow Kinsler was supposed to be the bridge between where we are now and winning the WS. Then I stand corrected as I never go in the in-game thread (assuming that's what that means)

So true. He questions how anyone can say they're a bigger fan over someone else then expected Braun to call him over everybody else. "yeah Debbie, I got the invite too to the annual 4th of July party from our mutual multi-millionaire friend. but can't make it because of my social calendar being filled with Brewers/Marlins games. if it wasn't for these @ss kickings i need to see i'd be there in a heart beat even though i've never been on a plane" There's a reason nobody from the Brewers org or other long-time season ticket holders around him were never interviewed for this article. It's poppycock

As a recruiter I'm always interested in learning about what people do for a living and what led them down that path. Interesting how there's zero mention of what his career was, especially retiring at 43 and stating he worked for 28yrs (starting at 15yrs old) and doing all this while supposedly never missing a game.

My perspective is pretty straight forward. I don't play for the Brewers or any professional sports team so if, for example the Brewers, never make it to or win a WS in my lifetime I don't care. I'm a baseball fan first, Brewers fan second. My life does't, and won't ever, revolve around whether or not they win or lose. The comparison between Stearns (this specific rebuild) and the rebuilds the fans "have been sold" the past 35yrs aren't even in the same ballpark given Stearns is operating in a way no other GM has. The Brewers won 68 games the year before he took over. 1.67 seasons later they're 2.5 games out of the division lead from the reigning WS champs and 4 games over 500 while also having a Top 5 farm system with Santana/Arcia (Top 100) already up full time and Hader/Brinson/Phillips/Woodruff (Top 100) up now or will be starting next year. Then there's still a ton of talent in the system still and we have an insanely low payroll. They're clearly in a good position moving forward. Briggs, you were like 3-5yrs old when the Milwaukee Braves won a championship so it's already happened in your lifetime

Small sample for Brinson but they've both kinda stunk in MLB this year. In this case I guess I'd go with Broxton and keep Brinson in AAA to not burn service time and keep him actually playing. Plus, i gotta believe that Stearns will trade Broxton for whatever he can get for him in the offseason, so if he can play better these last few months, it would help on the return, even if it's nothing special. I agree that's the best play as Broxton having that extra option moving forward is a bonus and if he can get going the final 2 months of the season he can boost is trade value in the off season. Regarding trading him, I've been saying that for well over a month now. Brinson is the CF of the future without question joining Braun/Santana. While I'd understand trading Phillips and keeping Broxton as your 4th I think it makes way more sense to trade Broxton in the off season and keep Phillips as your 4th. His value rises even more as he'll get 350+ AB, plays all 3 spots well, has a cannon and is the only left handed hitting OF option. This is why I can't see him being traded unless he's part of a package to get a great controllable impact player/pitcher. Stearns/Counsell love lefties - Shaw, Thames, Villar (switch), Sogard, Vogt, Phillips, Ray, Diaz, Erceg, Clark

People loved Sogard all year? I'm sure they loved his production but I recall many people saying to enjoy it while it lasts because he'd he very likely to revert back to career norms. Was that the general consensus at the end of May? End of June? Beginning of July? No. It was within the first 10 days of his performance.

So, in a nutshell, you refuse to take an objective stance on this overall situation (big picture thinking) because your opinion of Villar is emotional in nature. They both hit leadoff the vast majority of the time. In the leadoff spot Villar is slashing 232/290/663 and Kinsler 244/323/710. Again, I ask, how is trading 3yrs of a cheap, controlled Villar for 2 months of Kinsler a significant upgrade to boost us into the playoffs, especially when factoring in what we can get in return for Villar if he rebounds next year? And I absolutely believe he'll rebound next year; maybe not to his 2016 levels but he without question has the ability to easily be a top 10 producing MLB 2b where only Dee Gordon rivals is speed on the bases and maybe a handful have his power too (and he's a switch hitter). Defensive metrics don't even take into account a player shifting. They're based upon someone playing straight up and the Brewers are in like the top 3 for teams that shift. Not saying Kinsler isn't better defensively than Villar, because he clearly is much better, but defensive metrics are far from being accurate. And how often is his defense going to impact the game over a 2 month span? Haven't heard many complaints about Villar's defense since April. De Jesus is a 30yr old who's had very limited success at the MLB level - he's nothing but org depth. Decisions are based on a myriad of variables. Dubon has 31 games in AAA. If Brinson or Phillips aren't getting every day PT in CF over Broxton then there's no way Dubon is over Villar/Sogard/Perez. Perez is great playing 2-3x per week and gets much worse when playing full time. Villar has a much bigger upside than all these guys and he's 26 - that's why he gets the leash, that's why he's still in the lineup. Because he's performing terribly this year means we should throw all his potential into the garbage can for 2 months of a 35yr old who is barely outperforming him offensively in the leadoff spot? Nobody was talking about making a trade for a position player - it was all about Quintana/Gray and pen arms. Then once Quintana/Gray were over there was a rumor involving Kinsler then everybody piles on Villar/Sogard. Again, whichever way the wind blows on any given day...

At least for me, if something is blatantly obvious I tend not to mention it, because it's blatantly obvious. My first thought upon hearing about the trade was that I recall there being a positive connection between Jeffress and the team's psychologist (I forget his name), so if there is anything blocking him mentally at the moment, perhaps that could be cleared up. Beyond that, Jeffress has pitched his best ball in Milwaukee and seemed to feed on the positive environment, which was encouraging for his prospects here the rest of the season. I feel that most of that paragraph and especially the last sentence is common knowledge though, which is why I felt no particularly strong need to acknowledge it. But that's just me. And in the end, I think it's kind of a silly thing to be arguing about. It is silly to discuss, I won't say argue because it's a quick discussion that won't be expanded upon. Even obvious aspects need to be addressed and acknowledged and it happens daily in almost every discussion. Jeffress having a poor year statistically is obvious and it was acknowledged plenty in this thread. I see his mental/psychological aspect being no different.

That's part of it. HS kids, for a while now, play in a ton of wood bat tourneys on travel teams that play year round whereas the college kid is using what's required of them as they don't have a choice.

I don't follow the draft until a day before it because I could care less so I can't answer that question. But when I made the point I actually looked up the 2015 draft and Ray wouldn't have come close to sniffing the Top 5 or even the Top 10. Last year Ray, Erceg, Feliciano, Burnes, McClanahan I think were the Top 30 guys. Every year at least a few guys are being added to the Top 30 as you'll have prospects graduate off the list, get traded or bounce off it due to production.

Good lord, overreact much? You utter some whoppers but this one may have taken the cake. Briggs also said for a very, very long time how much of a downgrade Santana was to Khris Davis. How much of the 5-45 came in his first stint where his eyes were wide open and he was trying way too hard, which he even admitted. Since he's come back he hit the 2HR in back to back games (I heard silence on your end at that point) and looked more patient and relaxed. His pinch hit last night he was robbed of a RBI double smoking it down the 1b line. How was his defense since he came up or was he only playing on one side of the ball? How about him drawing BB's late in the games when we needed runners? Guess those don't count either because he wasn't swinging the bat. He oozes talent

I agree with you that it makes sense for Detroit to want to do that. But how does that scenario make sense on the Brewers end? Lets say that next year Villar gets going again and produces something remotely similar to his 2016 (could even be 15-20pts less across the board) - he'll hit 16HR+ with 40SB+ and have 2yrs of control left. Wouldn't it put us in a much better position long-term to keep him and flip him after next year for a good return instead of trading him now for 2 months of Kinsler and an aging Verlander who's owed an absurd amount of money, has a no trade clause so probably won't get moved and eats a rotation spot when we have 3yrs of Nelson/Chase, 4yrs of Davies/Guerra, 6yrs of Hader/Woodruff + Ortiz/Burnes ready by the end of next year. Maybe Villar is pretty bad forever and Kinsler could help us get to the playoffs. Possibly (regarding Villar). Very doubtful (regarding Kinsler). Villar's 2015/2016 being improvements on his prior 2yrs, his current age and his ability can pretty easily allow someone to make the case he'll bounce back to being a productive starting middle IF moving forward. He also had to put in extra work getting used to 2b this year while also missing a lot of spring training with sporadic/limited playing time in the WBC. You think Villar potentially could be pretty bad forever so why don't you think it's possible that Kinsler could continue to decline the rest of this season like he's done? Outside of June, Kinsler has slashed 237/317/664 this year. As pathetic as that is, it's an upgrade to Villar. But it still absolutely sucks. Giving up a 26yr old Villar with 3yrs of control left for 2 months of that most likely isn't going to put this team over the hump. I get people wanting Villar to have limited playing time the next 2 months and if Stearns wants to acquire Kinsler then fine, but trading Villar to do so is absurd and that's been my point. And I think it's ridiculous that people loved Sogard all year but since he's struggled in his 6 starts, since missing 3wks with an injury, he's immediately become the mediocre journeyman he's always been. Whichever way the wind is blowing that day I guess...

Aren't all players in the minors working on things though? I understand the struggles for Clark due to his age and coming out of HS. But a college player picked #5 overall shouldn't have this many things to work on. Yes, absolutely, but everyone has a different skill set with different weaknesses and obstacles to overcome. Not every player develops the same and, more importantly, not every draft has the same talent level. Take Hiura for example, with his mechanics/approach and the consistency he has repeating he can walk out of bed in the morning and hit line to line and with some power too. He's a pure hitter with not many offensive weaknesses. While he'll continue to develop and tweak things over time like most players do he doesn't have the challenges Ray does. Ray also has big upside so they're going to focus on certain things to make sure he reaches that potential. I've said this before, Ray started focusing on driving the ball to the middle part of the field then shifted his focus to driving the ball oppo with authority. He's not just heading out there playing his own game every night. When you do that for an extended period of time your stats are going to suffer. It's the same with Phillips last year. They wanted him to work on his patience, work the count while also lifting and driving the ball up the middle (gap to gap) all while tweaking his leg kick (timing mechanism). All of that played a role in his numbers, on the surface, being much worse than his prior years. But that doesn't necessarily speak to his talent level and ability, which is why he's back to putting up great numbers again. Going through that development process all last year has allowed him to just play and let everything fall into place. It's a big reason why he's already tied his HR total in a minor league season in 200 fewer AB. Ray will get to that point. Advanced college bats can still come with warts that need ironing out (as stated earlier Zack Collins is a guy people on here were interested in drafting and he's hitting 30pts below Ray in the same league). His BB rate is 10%, which is good but his K rate is 30%. Part of that is a result of the process he's going through. His line drive rate is up 2.2%, ground ball rate down almost 4% and fly ball rate up 1.5% (however, his infield fly ball rate is down 9.5% so he's hitting way more fly balls, which speaks to him working on lifting and driving the ball when normally he might have hit a liner or ground ball). His pull rate is down 3% and that has been shifted to the middle/oppo approach. Smoothing out that part of his offensive game is what is going to make him a better overall hitter than what he was on draft day. If the Brewers didn't think he was this talented then they wouldn't have offered him as the headliner for Quintana because Stearns doesn't try to fleece people he puts together packages based on evidence/data where the value is equal. If the White Sox didn't think Ray was this talented then they wouldn't have had serious conversations with the Brewers, they would have said no and moved on. But that wasn't the case. It's just not as easy and simple as saying he's an advanced college bat who was the 5th overall pick so he should automatically be hitting 300 with a 900 OPS. It'd make life easier if that was the case but it just isn't.

The A's absolutely could have been interested in our prospects not named Brinson and thought highly of those prospects. But they simply thought more highly of the Yankees package. This doesn't mean our prospects suck and nobody has interest in them, which is what people have been alluding to between the Quintana/Gray trades. Same with the White Sox, they could absolutely like Ray but think more highly of Jimenez. If we're not giving up Brinson then there's only so much Stearns can offer to beat what someone else is willing to offer up. If the A's and White Sox thought Ray, etc sucked then serious conversations wouldn't have been had because Brinson was never on the table on Stearns' end.

1 - Brinson 2 - Hader 3 - Ortiz 4 - Hiura 5 - Woodruff 6 - Phillips 7 - Burnes 8 - Bickford 9 - Diaz 10 - Ray 11 - Dubon 12 - Clark 13 - Erceg 14 - Peralta 15 - Lutz 16 - Nottingham 17 - Harrison (Monte) 18 - Kodi 19 - Harrison (KJ) 20 - Diplan 21 - Derby 22 - Herrera 23 - Gatewood 24 - Ponce 25 - Supak

If Broxton is solid overall the rest of the season it can potentially boost his value in the off season for a trade. Having that extra option is an added bonus any way you slice it. Phillips as the 4th next year backing up all spots will get plenty of run and his value increases as a MLB player and no longer a prospect.

For me, and I suspect a lot of others would agree, it's entirely obvious that emotions and psychology affect performance. It's curious that you think you're the only person who understands that pretty basic insight. I can't recall a time when anyone here denied it. What I think is an important corollary to that insight is that emotional and psychological effects on performance are very hard to measure with the information available to us as baseball fans. I suspect from what I know of psychology that those impacts are often hard to measure for a player's own therapist. People who don't like sabermetrics often complain about the role statistical analysts ascribe to luck, or random variation, in baseball performance. Those complaints are often overblown -- random variation really is a thing -- but the complainers have a point. When people don't have concrete information about what causes an effect, we often default to finding the cause in something we can't measure. It's an attractive strategy (or a comfortable impulse), because nobody can prove you're wrong about something if you're basing your argument on something that can't be measured. I hope coming back to Milwaukee is a tonic for Jeffress. There's certainly some evidence that it might be. But even if it is, we have to consider the possibility that other causes -- coaching and park factors most obviously -- might account for the difference, rather than (or at least in conjunction with) emotions and psychology. It's also possible that his performance variations have little or nothing to do with being in Milwaukee. Relievers just fluctuate. Clearly he doesn't think he's the only person who understands this since he was responding to my post. That would make 2 of us. Additionally, and I missed it the first time, LiveforOctober was the first person to reference his mental/psychological affects and Milwaukee being a place of comfort. So that makes 3. And no, there isn't "some" evidence suggesting this there's a lot of evidence. If it was so blatantly obvious to you and everyone else then why did it take until the end of page 2 (liveforoctober), middle of page 4 (me) and middle of page 5 (LouisEly) to be the only people to address this "obvious" issue regarding Jeffress? None of us said this was the ONLY issue regarding his performance. There's a difference between denying and acknowledging. And while nobody denied it, nobody else acknowledged it either.

Tigers want to dump salary & get younger while not losing ability to compete. Verlander & Kinsler are aging, production has dropped, and they eat a ton of salary. They are out of contention this season so sell off some old expensive assets to give you flexibility in the off season to work with. I could see Villar going to Detroit & getting hot again like he was last year. He has that ability to be that player. I agree with you that it makes sense for Detroit to want to do that. But how does that scenario make sense on the Brewers end? Lets say that next year Villar gets going again and produces something remotely similar to his 2016 (could even be 15-20pts less across the board) - he'll hit 16HR+ with 40SB+ and have 2yrs of control left. Wouldn't it put us in a much better position long-term to keep him and flip him after next year for a good return instead of trading him now for 2 months of Kinsler and an aging Verlander who's owed an absurd amount of money, has a no trade clause so probably won't get moved and eats a rotation spot when we have 3yrs of Nelson/Chase, 4yrs of Davies/Guerra, 6yrs of Hader/Woodruff + Ortiz/Burnes ready by the end of next year.

That group is not going to get a guy like Gray especially in heavy bidding. The Brewers offered Ray in trades and teams weren't interested. He can't hit. Terrible draft selection. Clark is a much better prospect. He's developing and working on certain aspects of his offensive game. That's the point of the minors. To develop and grow. Just because you're an advanced college bat and 1st rd pick doesn't mean you don't have things to work on. Come 12 months from now it'll make for interesting conversation looking back on people's comments regarding Ray (and Clark for that matter). Zack Collins is hitting 209 with a 763 OPS (only because he's much more of a power bat than Ray). Every player develops differently

This is a great post Ennder..and I'd like to touch on the highlighted quote. First i agree with you that Gray isn't an ace, but Verlander and Darvish are. I also agree with you that they need 4-5 players..Here's what i would have done, and I think you could have done it all without touching Brinson. Now, right or wrong I'm going to base this on the prospect rankings(by system that teams gave up to acquire these players). Now also keep in mind, the topic was about what was needed to compete THIS year...so control is NOT an issue for this comparison. Here's who I would have targeted: Darvish/Verlander Wilson Kinsler Granderson That's 4 guys that touch on the Crew's major weaknesses this year..now who would I have given up to acquire these players?? Again remember, really the only baseline we have to compare is the prospect rankings by organization.. Brewers get: Yu Darvish(the Dodgers gave up their #4, #17 & #27 prospects) Brewers give up: (#4 Brandon Woodruff, #16 Trey Supak(had to substitute him for #17 Ryan Cordell), #27 Larry Ernesto Brewers get: Justin Wilson Brewers give up : Isan Daz and Jacob Nottingham Brewers get: Ian Kinsler Brewers give up: Hard to judge what it would have taken, but given the Brewers would have taken on salary it couldn't have taken too much..so lets just say they give them a top 30 prospect..Let's just say Kodi Medeiros Brewers get: Curtis Granderson Brewers give: Again, hard to say, but let's just say it's a minor piece...pick whoever you want. In looking at this, would that REALLY have been giving up that much for the Brewers in gaining those players?? I don't think so. I'm in agreement on this. I would have tried to get Darvish. Dodgers didn't give up the farm and got a stud for a couple months. In no way would I part with 6yrs of a MLB ready Woodruff for 2 months of Darvish. Woodruff is making his debut on Thur and most likely will get 3-4 starts and once Chase is back they'll have to figure out who's removed from the rotation but with him being MLB ready with a 94-96 fastball, late breaking slider to keep guys off his fastball (which he leads with) and an improving change - controlling all of them - there's no way I'm parting with that for 2 months of a playoff run we're most likely not going to win. I understand you're just looking at what we need to compete this year but you can't remove player control as that's an important variable when making deals and which players are involved. If we did all those deals and don't overtake the Cubs for the division then we just gave up Woodruff, Diaz, Nottingham, Supak, Kodi, Ernesto + 1 for 1yr of Wilson. So, yes, we would really be giving up a lot. Big picture....

He should be and it was the most logical selection given he was on the same rotation schedule as Guerra. 70 pitches last outing means he should be able to get up to 90 this time out so he can hopefully roll through 6 innings. Nelson, Garza, Davies, Suter, Woodruff and when Chase gets back you figure out where he fits in but at least Woodruff gets some MLB experience with 3-4 starts at minimum.

I guess it's easy to be mad about trades that didn't happen when you make up hypothetical terms that were never going to be accepted. Nobody has any idea what was or wasn't going to be accepted because nobody knows the pieces that were on the table to begin with. If Stearns offered Phillips, Ortiz, Woodruff I'm pretty sure Beane would take that over what the Yankees offered so they absolutely could have done a deal without Brinson. All the rumors sound like Beane required Brinson as part of it based on who the secondary pieces were, which makes sense. Yes, the Brewers could have afforded to part ways with Phillips + others for Gray. But it wouldn't make much sense to do so given the overall position the Brewers are currently in and where these prospects are in their careers. Based on the Yankees offer it would take something like Phillips, Ortiz, Dubon Just to "approach" matching it. Now, you have to improve upon that to get Beane to accept the deal over the Yankees. Hader isn't going anywhere, Ray I personally don't think they'd take over a MLB ready CF so he'd be out. There's no way Stearns is giving up Ortiz and Woodruff (or Burnes) so that leaves Diaz as the 3rd piece over Dubon (which is a terrible offer on our end) or Brinson as the only logical piece that would have to be included as he'd replace Phillips. The Yankees are giving up a MLB ready CF in Fowler (current Top 100), AA CF/SS/2b who was Top 100 entering the season and then a 2015 1st rd pick who was Top 100 entering this season who had TJ but could be better than Ortiz/Woodruff and fly through the minors and take the same route as Walker Buehler. So when the rumor is it would take Brinson to deal with the Brewers I absolutely believe it. And there's no way Stearns is parting with him hence the talks broke off.

First off, the Brewers aren't losing. They're above 500. Secondly, I get people being competitive but you're not even playing dude. You're a spectator. Third, prove to everyone the Brewers would make the playoffs this year with Gray as well as the next 2yrs. Prove to everyone Gray won't land on the DL over the rest of his contract (3 DL stints in past 1.5yrs). It's a two-way street with that

blazek, peralta, milone, feliz, espino, marinez, drake, barnes, torres, scahill, hughes, knebel, suter, hader… lesser extent for webb, jungmann, wang, goforth, lopez I would argue the 2017 Brewers have been the epitome of bringing guys in to offer them a chance to prove they have value as a bullpen arm. As noted above it was the year of opportunity for the Brewers pen. But when you can get someone like Jeffress, with 2yrs of control left, who has greatly enjoyed his time in this city and performed very well for a 25yr old AA pitcher who might never even reach the MLB level why would you not take that opportunity to see if Jeffress can get back to his old self in a place he's comfortable? Guys like Derby, T.Williams, Ramsey most likely aren't ready for different reasons. Their time is coming, maybe by the end of this year otherwise most likely next year. Being in AA or AAA doesn't mean you have the potential to be a quality MLB pen arm. You're right, a change of scenery doesn't automatically mean success. But if we're talking about Jeffress he's a different story than someone like Milone. There's clear evidence he pitches very well in Milwaukee while not being as effective elsewhere.

Davies has a 3.7 ERA his last 18 starts and 16 of those netted a 2.96 ERA. 10 of those starts he gave up 2ER or fewer and 3 more starts he gave up 3ER. He's been productive. As got a lot of talented dudes back. Beating that deal would have been a horrendous decision.