Humans Need Water

Completely agree here. While Stearns/MA might not have cared for his antics and stated attitude toward hustling during the 2018 postseason they also know they're shooting for a ring. They also have a pulse on how their clubhouse operates and they will have performed their due diligence when it comes to the leadership/interpersonal side with teammates in the clubhouse. They're not just evaluating on-field performance. So if they have no reservations and it's possible they can land him on a 1yr deal for crazy money I wouldn't be surprised at all if they offered one and, as a fan, I'd be all for that 1yr deal. And the Brewers don't need strong personalities in the clubhouse to keep him in check. The Brewers clubhouse culture is the complete opposite of LA and Balt

It can be ignored and it really should be ignored. Also, they move guys like Wilson all over the place in the minors because they don't really have a spot. This is a guy who posted an OPS about 70 points lower than Hernan has over the last three years in the big leagues, while he was in AA. I'm kinda hoping our aim is to improve upon Hernan, not look for another guy like him, just worse in every single way. There were a couple guys on that list that were encouraging. But is that really all that different than when Melvin was here? Parra was a late round guy that looked like he could be a legitimate #2 starter, Gennett obviously was a great pick even before turning his big league career around in Cincy.... Completely false. Fielding percentage is *literally* a number that defines how often a player makes a play based on the opportunity to actually make that play. How in the world does that *not* matter? But it doesn't factor in IQ, athleticism, footwork, range, arm strength, screwing up a DP but still managing to get 1 out, etc etc. Fielding percentage absolutely matters but it's only one part of a story. Just like BA is only one part of the story for how good one is offensively, but should never be the sole reasoning for who's successful and who isn't.

Cool - where'd you play college and which summer leagues around here? And Pina's an above average offensive catcher while also being a great defender and thrower, which makes him an above average catcher overall. Literally all evidence out there shows this. That doesn't mean he can't be upgraded over. He just was but that now makes him one of the best backup catchers in the game. There are plenty of teams where Pina would be an huge upgrade from what they had, including the WS winning Red Sox. Speaking of not being able to hit their way out of a paper bag, Red Sox catching position slashed 194/246/533 last year. This is the second post calling out BCin07. Beyond just a general reminder for us all to maintain forum etiquette, I read BCin07's post as he's saying he understands that you can't be too dismissive of all the important defensive work a catcher needs to be good at... but he still prefers an offensive catcher even if you sacrifice some defense. So I'm not allowed to ask him who or where he played? Also, I have no idea how you interpreted what he said that way. Literally none because what he said was very straight forward. He said Pina was terrible offensively (and that he'll take an offense first catcher all day every day) and knows all this *because* he played catcher himself. Except him playing catcher is irrelevant and provides zero insight into his perspective/opinion not to mention there's zero information that suggests Pina is bad offensively (the eye test answers that without looking at anything else)

Cool - where'd you play college and which summer leagues around here? And Pina's an above average offensive catcher while also being a great defender and thrower, which makes him an above average catcher overall. Literally all evidence out there shows this. That doesn't mean he can't be upgraded over. He just was but that now makes him one of the best backup catchers in the game. There are plenty of teams where Pina would be an huge upgrade from what they had, including the WS winning Red Sox. Speaking of not being able to hit their way out of a paper bag, Red Sox catching position slashed 194/246/533 last year.

This is the closest to where I'd land at the moment, and as wildcat mentioned, Burch Smith is going to be a factor as well in some fashion. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that Nelson and/or Guerra and/or Davies wind up in AAA to begin the year. All have options remaining and Nelson still doesn't have enough service time to reject the option. In fact I'd guess at least one of them does start in AAA unless there's a rash of injuries in spring training. It's also important to remember that the Brewers are moving away from defined starter/reliever roles, so some spots in the AAA rotation may work similarly to how they do piggybacking in the lower minor leagues. Best current guess at a AAA staff, assuming Nelson/Davies/Guerra start with the big club: 3-6 inning pitchers: Zack Brown, Bubba Derby, Freddy Peralta, Burch Smith, Trey Supak, Aaron Wilkerson, one of Zach Davies/Junior Guerra/Jimmy Nelson 1-2 inning pitchers: Tristan Archer, Deolis Guerra, Jon Olczak, Jake Petricka, Miguel Sanchez, Bobby Wahl Guerra has already been told he's in the pen so I think he's 100% on the MLB team in that versatile role. I can't see Davies starting in AAA when he's healthy. Nelson makes the most sense given he's coming off the injury so depending how his spring goes it might be best for him to start in AAA. Joey Bombs mentioned it above you but I've never seen or heard Burnes being told he already has a rotation spot. If that's the case then, because of the injury, it might make sense to flip him and Nelson putting Nelson in the versatile role giving him a season to get his footing back while still making an impact. Depending on roster construction at the MLB level there's also guys like T. Williams and Barnes that need innings in AAA

I'm guessing Peralta, Brown, Supak, Wilkerson, Derby with others in a revolving door (ie Ponce). Diplan, Webb, Roegner start in AA. Diplan was 3yrs young for AA so it makes sense for him to start there and that's been his career path thus far as well. Webb and Roegner just don't have many AA starts/innings to begin with. All 3 of them should pitch in AAA at some point most likely. I see no reason to have Davies in AAA unless he's injured and pitching poorly like 2018. If he's healthy he's in the MLB rotation with new acquisition, Nelson, Chacin, Chase. That keeps Burnes, Woodruff, Guerra (and Peralta when 13 pitchers) in that critical versatility role. This makes the team very talented and very deep.

I don't want to speak for everyone else, but i think it's mostly because he doesn't strike out(like most of the current crew), and he can hit for a high average. Nevermind, he probably won't hit more than 10-15 HR's ever at the major league level. He will probably get on base a lot, which is useful for sure, but that's about all it is...useful. If he doesn't hit for much power(which is likely), or ever drive in 100+ runs(consistently), then he's a good, not great prospect...which is what I think he is. Useful, yes, above average...yes. Elite?? I seriously doubt it, but that is what most here seem to think that's what he will be. Guys that hit for a high BA/OBP don't grow on trees and at the 2b spot they're even more scarce. Second, Hiura will hit 15HR at minimum, not maximum. He hit 13 in 123 games between A+/AA (both pitchers parks) then hit 5HR in 23 games in AZFL. He's more 20-30HR gap and scouts are saying he has a lot of untapped power. Dude has elite bat speed and the ability to consistently barrel up the ball. And driving in 100 runs is irrelevant and also depends on various factors. He had 33rbi in 42 games between rookie/A and just had 33rbi in 23 games in AZFL too. Altuve has never done it and he's driven in more than 81 *once*...same goes for Pedroia and was over 84 *once*. Bregman just got 103 and needed 51 doubles/31HR. Machado, Bryant and Harper each have done it once. 3 of Trout's 7yrs he's been 83 or lower. You're not just giving up 3 great prospects for Kluber you're also paying him 17.5M annually for ages 33-35 so that's a big trade and it has to make sense with how this team is being constructed over the next 2-3yrs as well as who those prospects are, how close they are, how do they fit with what Stearns is doing. etc. They want Hiura to lead the package, which they absolutely should. But we're not giving up 6yrs 4mo of a dude with an elite hit tool who'll be ready by June. There's minimal risk with a player like Hiura.

UZR is a terrible metric. DRS has him at -3 in 2016 over 585 innings (65 full games basically) so extrapolate that to 140 games and he's actually a -7. And that was by far and away his best defensive metric season at 2b. He also has a 980 fielding % at 2b. Compare that to Cabrera at 993 %. There's no way Dietrich's range is *that* much better than Cabrera to offset the difference. Cabrera is the better fielder/thrower. So I'm banking on Cabrera's poor metrics being due to his lack of range, which can be mitigated at 2b with how much the Brewers shift (that's how Shaw ended up there - because he can field and throw he just doesn't have the range and Cabrera would likely have better range than Shaw given he also played SS). And him filling in at SS occasionally won't have a negative impact either as Dubon will be up relatively soon too. Dietrich is the best bat out there if you're only looking for a lefty to face RHP. I personally prefer Cabrera as he's a switch hitter with very similar splits against both sides. So while he won't hit RHP like Dietrich can he'll be more consistent and matchups won't need to be played. Both these guys posted very similar OPS+ numbers the past several years too. My point was that the narrative that Dietrich was some horrible, horrible fielder might not hold merit. I am not personally advocating we add the guy - just pointing out it might not be that bad of a move if other things don't work out. As a note, Cabrera had a -17 DRS last year in 92 games at 2B. He was almost as bad at SS (-5 DRS in 31 games). But DRS or any metric is just one part of the equation. That's for the team to figure out. They see the film, run all the numbers, work out the guys. Cabrera's ability to play SS and 3B is nice - even if he isn't that great at any position. And his switch hitting is a really nice plus. You also have to be more comfortable with his bat - which has been pretty steady these last few years. I hear ya. And yeah, we all know the metrics say Cabrera is worthless defensively. But it has to be range related. Range has nothing to do with the ability to actually field the ball and throw it and Cabrera does that. Dietrich isn't good at 2b but he's also not terrible. He's serviceable in a platoon with the way we shift. If we didn't shift much I wouldn't want either of them. The biggest reason I personally would prefer someone other than Dietrich is because he's a lefty who would be best suited in a platoon. That might make sense if there aren't other options who are righty or switch hitters but there are. I'm also fine sticking with a platoon of Spangenberg/Perez until Hiura is up. And once Dubon is up and comfortable I'd trade Perez because he's the worst bench hitter we have and there are others who can do what he does defensively (the majority of his time last year came at SS/2b and RF - we'll be covered there).

UZR is a terrible metric. DRS has him at -3 in 2016 over 585 innings (65 full games basically) so extrapolate that to 140 games and he's actually a -7. And that was by far and away his best defensive metric season at 2b. He also has a 980 fielding % at 2b. Compare that to Cabrera at 993 %. There's no way Dietrich's range is *that* much better than Cabrera to offset the difference. Cabrera is the better fielder/thrower. So I'm banking on Cabrera's poor metrics being due to his lack of range, which can be mitigated at 2b with how much the Brewers shift (that's how Shaw ended up there - because he can field and throw he just doesn't have the range and Cabrera would likely have better range than Shaw given he also played SS). And him filling in at SS occasionally won't have a negative impact either as Dubon will be up relatively soon too. Dietrich is the best bat out there if you're only looking for a lefty to face RHP. I personally prefer Cabrera as he's a switch hitter with very similar splits against both sides. So while he won't hit RHP like Dietrich can he'll be more consistent and matchups won't need to be played. Both these guys posted very similar OPS+ numbers the past several years too. And I agree with VFBrewerFan regarding Dubon. He would have been #2 or 3 on this site's Top 25 and I think he would have been #3 or 4 on mlb.com with Turang being the other. In 2017 Dubon graded as 55 hit, 40 power, 60 run, 55 arm, 55 field with a 50 overall. The exact same numbers they slapped on Turang right now. But because Dubon hit 272 in a pitchers park (AA) being 2yrs young for level then 272 in the best hitters park (AAA) 4.5yrs young for level they dropped his hit hit tool to 50, power to 35 (even though he was on same pace as year before but in a worse hitting park) and field to 50 but say he can play both sides of the bag well so it makes no sense lol so now his overall is 45 (utility). They were calling him up the first week of May last year because he was ready at that time *and*, I'm assuming here, it would have been after the super 2 cutoff. So their comment about starting him in AAA to get his feet wet again after the injury makes sense and he'll be up as soon as he's playing his normal game.

But the odds aren't in anybody's favor to be a generational talent. Outside of Braun (college) and Fielder (HS) they haven't drafted any impact bats until Hiura (college). Prince was in MLB at the end of his 3rd minor league season out of HS, which is probably equivalent to the Braun/Hiura track for college bats. When you can hit like this you move quick and that goes for every MLB org.

Your skepticism of Dubon is match by my skepticism of Hiura, at least for 2019. I fear that the people expecting him to come up in May and be the answer to our 2B prayers are going to be disappointed. Could he be that someday? Sure ... but rare is the prospect that comes up and is an immediate impact player. Regarding Dubon ... he's a nice player, but probably ultimately has the ceiling of a utility infielder. Think Hernan Perez with much less power and more plate discipline. Useful player, but not a guy that should be starting on a World Series contending team. You also question Hiura not being ready due to his AA batting average. A - 333/374/850 A+ - 320/382/911 First full month in AA - 326/380/891 *then hurt wrist* but still finished with 116 wrc+ AZFL after one month off to heal wrist - 323/371/934 There's clearly a pattern here...now combine that with scouts raving about his bat (to the point Mayo says it trails only Vlad Jr in the minors) and Stearns saying his bat was MLB ready in March 2018. People are kidding themselves if they think he won't be up within the first 2-3 months. He doesn't need to be Braun as a rookie. If he merely hits 275/340/800 he's already a significant upgrade to 2018 and an upgrade to every player we're discussing on this thread because he's an every day player hitting both sides equally well. Dubon is a career 300/349/760 hitter being 1.5 - 3.5yrs young every step of the way with 30+ SB and zero concerns about his defense/arm at either SS or 2b. He's around a 6% walk rate with 14% K rate the past 4yrs. High contact, high BA, great bat to ball skills spray hitter, great approach. His power has increased every year as he's added muscle to his frame so he'll probably max out around 10-12HR or so as he continues to mature but that's not his game. He's above average across the board except power - and his hit/run tools have the chance to be plus. He's overlooked for various reasons. He's 6'0 160lbs, lacks power, wasn't a high draft pick and has Arcia and Hiura sitting in front of him up the middle and both made Top 10 overall on at least one major pub (Dubon hasn't cracked a Top 100 even). He's not a sexy player but he does everything well. There's a reason they bumped him from AA to AAA in 2017 and it wasn't because of his slash line. Outside of a 3wk slump in Aug, 2017 he's pissed on the ball in AAA (home and away) between 2017/2018. He also hits righties and lefties equally well, unlike Perez. Dubon's floor is a much better Perez and his ceiling is a productive starting middle infielder.

Dubon. I think he can be a Top 10 SS in this league. He's usually overlooked but I think it'll be Dubon's play that ultimately ships Arcia out of town (2020-2021 area)

Did you not see him when he was absolutely white hot for significant stretches in 2018 and 2017? He's not that good, but I think there's a lot of recency bias where people are remembering his poor end to 2018 (probably due to injury/sporadic playing time). I know he's making 6M but he's also a bench bat for us. How many bench bats are posting his numbers? He was also slashing 250/333/882 heading into the final day of July last year then eventually was put on pinch hit duty the final 6wks because the OF didn't miss any games and Aguilar was fine. While I think Thames is traded he's easily an above average hitter. Sure he K's a lot but he also has a great BB rate with big power. He's also not a butcher in the OF. He makes plays. He just doesn't look overly athletic doing so because he's a monster.

My answer to the question is both. While we can afford Marwin, and he's everyone's ideal target, I'd be shocked if we landed him. I think Cabrera makes much more sense than Harrison as he's significantly better offensively - is a switch hitter with similar splits vs lefties and righties. Defense is clearly his wart. It appears to be mainly due to his lack of range at SS/2b, which can absolutely be mitigated somewhat with shifting. His fielding % isn't brutal so it must be the range where he's getting knocked. But it's a huge positive that he can play SS, 2b, 3b. Regarding a pitcher, while we don't *need* one I think it's best for the team to add one. I think it needs to be a lefty though so either bring back Miley or target Pomeranz if his medicals check out and they think his velo can return. I think SF holds Bum unless we part with someone we'd prefer not too.

The Brewers 2b spot last year hit 227/290/668 (and that's including Shaw playing 2b who had a 309 OBP and 805 OPS there in 140 PA). Villar was our best 2b last year (not counting Shaw) hitting 261/315/693. Dubon just needs to match that to be an upgrade from the position overall last year. SS was even worse in OBP/OPS and Dubon plays there as well. It's absolutely realistic to think Dubon will outproduce our 2018 2b. It also helps that he won't have a high K rate like the others as he's typically around 14-15% - so high contact and high BA spray hitter. He also hits both righties and lefties well and that's critical as you don't have to play matchups like you do with Perez and Spangenberg. So once Dubon is up, which could be by May if he has another April like last year, and if Stearns acquires a 2b who hits both sides similarly/well (Harrison, Cabrera, Marwin) we're in a much better position at the back-end of games.

*No pressure* doesn't exist when you're on a WS caliber team and this team is built to for that 2019-2021. Every player is different intellectually, emotionally, psychologically, etc. You don't treat them all in the same manner. Hiura is an intelligent and poised individual with a very professional approach. No stage is too big for him. And Hiura being called up won't have anything to do with his slash line. It'll be how good are his PAs - how well and consistent is his contact - how is he performing in the field. I worded that poorly and already understand well what you felt compelled to explain. Restating: I'd rather see the Brewers bring in someone else respectable/proven, leave Perez & Spangenberg (probably) as the two reserve IFs, and NOT force-feed Hiura to the bigs in May if he's not ready yet (whatever the organization deems "not ready yet" means) just because that presumably would be past the Super-Two cutoff and have it come down to "Help us, Keston Hiura. You're our only hope." In other words, hopefully Hiura will be up when he's ready -- and hopefully raking big-time and therefore for good -- and not just because the Super-Two deadline has likely past. If he's ready by late May, then great. If not, I wouldn't want to see the Brewers bring him up because everyone else stunk and they felt he was the only remaining option, Hiura's developmental needs notwithstanding. Hiura's definitely the Brewers' best hitting prospect since Braun came up. But it's no given that once he's up, he'll never go back down (hopefully, but no guarantees). His performance would dictate if he stays in MIL. Then, yes, I agree!

Ya I just don’t agree. It always made the most sense to try to spend on upgrading catcher because there isn’t a highly regarded prospect or young player at the position, but due to positional scarcity second base looked like the easier position to upgrade because of all the free agent options. Now that they were able to upgrade at catcher we can reevaluate our thinking on second base. The brewers have followed a similar plan for Hader and Burnes in recent years (Not exactly apples to apples comparison, but you get the idea of how they’ve treated top prospects in recent seasons). The brewers don’t even need Hiura to come up and be even a league average hitter. They can probably live with a ~80 wrc+ from him. The brewers may still sign someone, but it’s probably someone with a history of positional versatility. I would bet if they do sign someone it’s gling to be for less than $5mm for one year since they spent big on a catcher. If Hiura is a potentially elite hitter, you do what's best for his long-term development with NO pressure to perform at the MLB level. You don't throw him into a pennant race or prolonged MLB stint if it stands to be detrimental. In other words, you don't count on him for 2019 at all. If he forces himself into the picture, then that's a great position for the Brewers to be in. *No pressure* doesn't exist when you're on a WS caliber team and this team is built to for that 2019-2021. Every player is different intellectually, emotionally, psychologically, etc. You don't treat them all in the same manner. Hiura is an intelligent and poised individual with a very professional approach. No stage is too big for him. And Hiura being called up won't have anything to do with his slash line. It'll be how good are his PAs - how well and consistent is his contact - how is he performing in the field.

CC was on record saying he was only looking for 17 outs from the SP or something along those lines. Before the game started CC already knew when he was going to pull the SP independent of how the game was going. He can say whatever he wants. But what I just stated actually happened. 73% of the time the rotation arms pitched 5+ innings. 17 outs also equals 5.2 innings pitched. He didn't say 17 batters he said 17 outs. Look at how many 5.2 outings rotation arms had - it'll show CC made a decision based on how the game was going. It goes to what I've been saying the past month, which is what my responses have been about and not some one time through the order strategy people keep pushing. They're going to be treated as typical starters. If they're super good they're going 7. If they're good/solid they're going 5-6. If they're struggling they're pulled in the 3rd and 4th and this 25% of the time situation is where it greatly benefits us having Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Guerra types as they can (1) stop the bleeding keeping our offense in the game and (2) eat up 3 innings to get the game into the 6-7th inning only using 2 pitchers - which is no different than a starter going 5-6 innings with a pen arm going 1. Like I said, this isn't a one time through the order approach - it's a versatility approach. Back to the topic at hand, which I honestly have no idea why it's at this many posts to begin with as there's really nothing to say other than Grandal signing was excellent.

I think Cory/Perez should be the default setting. I think they do add one of Marwin, Harrison, Cabrera. All of them have pretty similar numbers against both lefties and righties so you don't have to play matchups with them like you do Cory/Perez. Marwin would get a multi-year no doubt but Harrison/Cabrera are 1yr and sub-5M most likely. Even if Marwin gets 9M annually by us trading Perez and Thames that clears 8.7M for 2019 so still allows for a rotation addition and Perez is easily expendable if Marwin is here plus Dubon is in the wings too. Both are big upgrades over him. Grandal off books in 2020, Braun off 2021....this is why I don't believe Marwin is out of the price range. Lot of moving pieces but it's feasible

But WAR is supposed to tell everyone that Thames is valued at 7.65M after last season and he's making 6M so yay for us

How much would you like to bet that Lowrie won't sign for less than 6 million dollars? How much you wanna bet Matt LaFleur can throw a football over them there mountains?

Eh, that sounds a lot like the kind of thing people said about the way the Brewers used their staff this past season. I predicted a lot of those things last off season during the "should they sign a big name starter" arguments and was often dismissed, but I'm pretty sure they're not done making dramatic, evidence-based changes to the way the staff is used. There's a lot of moving parts when you do what I'm suggesting, but I think they're more than capable of handling it all. In fact, I think they actually enjoy the challenge. I think it will be very rare that they feel they need 13 pitchers this year. In any case, I certainly don't think this means it's a given that Thames is gone. Gamel has an option, doesn't he? I think he'll be up and down a lot. I have no idea what you predicted last year about signing a big named starter or not but I certainly recall saying the staff was much better than the typical person here thought and it wasn't a necessity to have a big named starter. I also have no idea how that relates to this discussion. The Brewers used their staff as a traditional staff outside of the final 2wks and playoffs because that entire span was basically the playoffs. Chacin, Chase, Davies, Wade, Guerra, Suter, Peralta, Gio were in true starter roles and they combined to start 157 games and 73% of those games they went 5+ innings. The vast, vast majority of the rest of those games they were pulled in 4th or 5th inning due to struggling - it wasn't because of some strategy involving seeing their order once. So not exactly sure what you're referring to when you say there were dramatic evidence-based decisions all last season. Again, the playoffs don't count because that's an entirely different animal. If Burnes/Woodruff assume their same roles as the 2nd half of last year and perform similar you're out of your mind if you think they're going to be shuffled back and forth for the likes of Williams/Barnes/Houser. Also, as mentioned by someone else recently, anybody optioned stays there for 10 days unless there's an injury recall. So people can get off this shuffling nonsense. If someone's injured they'll go on the DL or if not performing they'll be optioned. If there's a 7-10 day stretch in the schedule an extra bat is needed (AL road trips) someone can be optioned. That's not shuffling back and forth though. Now, back to the Grandal thread...

Even more middle relievers than last year, and more guys with options. They rarely had 13, and generally carried 11 in the playoffs. Granted, that's less games per week, but there's also no option of using options in the playoffs. They have even come out and said they're going to keep blurring the lines between starters and relievers even more than before. Could easily see guys like Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Davies, and/or Guerra getting optioned a few times after a long outing, not to mention the obvious shuttle candidates like Williams and Houser. With so many options, you can effectively have an 18-man staff even if only 11-12 are on the 25 man roster at any given time. Yeah that sounds fine and dandy in theory but in reality that's not how it works. All those AAA arms would need to be scheduled on the opposite pitching days as the MLB guys so they're fresh to come up and take their spots.

That's what I thought last year, but I didn't foresee them using so much shuttle service. That's probably going to be the plan again, given how many guys with options they have on the 40 man. In fact, they'll probably have 11 pitchers more often than they have 13. No. It'll be 13 pitchers the vast majority of the time. There will be certain spots on the schedule where it calls for an extra bat with an arm sacrificed but last year it was mainly 4 bench players. The shuffling mainly came from injuries with some ineffectiveness mixed in.

Yes. But all in could also mean trading for Bum as well and he has 1yr.