Humans Need Water

Watching pitchers hit is brutal. Between having a DH or a pitcher hitting nothing changes until the greater 6th inning area. Literally 2/3 of the game is exactly the same. Then there's either a pinch hitter and/or a double switch the rest of the way. WOW. Exciting stuff there. Can't wait to see which of the two moves Counsell makes!!! Implement the DH already and end this nonsense so the pitchers can do what they're paid to do....pitch. Not put a helmet on and look stupid. Not slow down position players on the bases or prevent someone from stealing. Just go out and pitch.

Great addition. Lineup is nunzeo. While Thames could technically still be on the 25 since Perez can play any position trading him would offset 60% of the Moose signing so he'd essentially cost 4M above the current team salary. That would still leave Keuchel in play. This does nothing to prevent Hiura from coming up when the Brewers deem him ready. It's free service time shortly into the season anyway. So whether he's merely starting a couple games per week at 2b, pinch hitting every night and/or playing DH/2b on the road vs AL teams he deepens the lineup even more. There's a 0% chance he's sitting in AAA until he's needed to DH for AL road games or until Sept as a call up given his bat is already MLB ready.

Absolutely BA can't be ignored but it should be never be used as a stand alone metric to tell one's story. Regarding the 2nd part, sure, anybody can see what they want but that doesn't mean they know what they're looking at/for. Baseball is simple on the surface but ridiculously complicated underneath.

Thames was slashing 246/329/869 at the end of July. He didn't have a down season he had a down final 2 months with the final month being solely a pinch hitter. Aguilar isn't going to repeat his 2nd half last year (245/330/760 area); he'll most likely be worse than his first half last year but better than his 2017. He definitely won't be a liability. And Thames is a great backup 1b and spot starter in corner OF when needed as well as a DH vs AL teams on road.

lol ok you keep on ignoring Aguilar's performance. If you forgot I'll refresh your memory. He murdered the ball in his 52 PA off the bench in April (9 starts) and forced his way into the lineup starting the rest of the season and making the AS team in the first half as one of the best hitters in MLB over that span. But yeah, it was *solely* because of Braun's 5 April starts at 1b that showed the Brewers he's horrific

Dude, you (should) know that's a brutal argument. They're all good hitters (OPS+ and other metrics, not to mention eyeballs, confirms this) who get on base at a good clip and hit for power. Arcia's been the only sub-par offensive performer but he's shown flashes of being solid. He's a borderline AS when his bat is going given his defense is great and *better* than above average.

Or maybe it's because the Brewer's statistical measure of defense is similar to UZR/150, and UZR/150 had Braun at a poor -19.0 when playing 1B. I mean I'm guessing it was a factor but I really doubt barely a 100 inning sample size of UZR/150 was the tipping point. I would guess it has a lot more to do with the somewhat lack of an outfield logjam now comparitvely to last spring and how they feel going forward this year with Aguilar and Thames. I highly doubt his defensive metrics from playing 12 games were a factor given they're clearly still open to Shaw playing 2b. Like Adam said, no OF logjam and Aguilar (plus still have Thames). Not to mention if we acquire Moose then Shaw could always slide to 1b too and he's actually played there previously. Or if we don't get Moose once Hiura is up if Shaw needed to slide to 1b we could still use the Spangeberg/Perez platoon at 3b worst case. There's literally no reason for Braun to spend any time at 1b.

If the choice here is either trying to get a good return for Thames, or putting out the lineup likely to win the most games for a team that has WS aspirations, then surely it's not even a close decision? Aguilar/Shaw/Thames puts the best offense in the lineup, no question about it. No black holes (other than the risk of Arcia replicating the first half of 2018) aside from the pitcher. cf: Cain rf: Yelich lf: Braun 2b: Shaw 3b: Aguilar c: Grandal 1b: Thames ss: Arcia Where is the weak link in that lineup? To answer your question I'd personally say there isn't one. But I'll ask a follow up question. Where is the weak link in the defense and how weak is that link? Both sides of the ball matter, which goes to my point above about Perez. People say he has great value but only discuss his defense in this regard completely ignoring his 80 OPS+ offense every year. Not only would Moose be a significant upgrade to Aguilar defensively that would also slide Aguilar back to 1b where he's definitely a better defensive 1b than Thames. There's a chain reaction when you move players around in your lineup above it's not just one spot that's affected. The same applies to your lineup if we don't add Moose and still see Spangenberg/Perez at 2b. It keeps Shaw at 3b (massive upgrade to Aguilar defensively), Aguilar at 1b and even better defense between the platoon at 2b than what Shaw would provide there. Sure you take a hit on the platoon vs Thames' bat but does that offset the loss in defense with the moving parts? No. If Aguilar was a legitimate option at 3b then he'd already be there this year with Shaw at 2b but that's not the case.

While Aguilar is capable of handling 3b a handful of times during the season if needed you don't want him out there nightly for 4-6wks. If the Brewers start with 12 arms due to the way the schedule is designed then they'll have Thames, Gamel, Spangenberg, Perez, Pina. If they go with 13 arms then Gamel or Spangenberg can be optioned. Thames could still be traded during spring, especially if another team suffers an injury. His bat is too big to just cut him and eat money. Regarding Moose, I'd be open to signing him to a 1yr deal as his bat/glove are worse than Shaw and his bat is worse than what Hiura will be come 2020 so I wouldn't want him beyond 2019. Between 2b/3b/1b having some combo of Shaw, Moose, Aguilar and Hiura every night would be great to see. And the best part of all of this is Perez gets ever fewer PAs. He lost 125 PA from 2017 to 2018 and this would take even more away. Then factor in Dubon coming up. The writing is on the wall for 2019 to be the last year Perez is here.

Herenan Perez 2017 wRC+ 79 Herenan Perez 2018 wRC+ 79 Perez is the same hitter he's always been and always will be. 3 of his 4yrs he's posted a 80 OPS+. But because he's capable of playing all positions far too many people ignore his bad and inconsistent offense. The bone chip in his left wrist clearly didn't affect him because if it did he would have hit the DL and/or missed time but that never happened. So it was one of those injuries where you need to have surgery to get it cleaned up for basic health reasons but in the meantime you can easily play with it and won't worry about it getting worse. Even the eye test says he's been the same player as previous years.

Obviously that's going to be the case - as I've said for months. There's always breaks in the calendar (usually first part) where you can bullpen a game, etc and still keep everyone rested. Counsell wasn't stating we're going with 5 rotation arms and nobody else will start and everyone is throwing 100 pitches. He was clearly starting we're going with a rotation and we need that rotation to get as many outs as possible. So when that happens 90% of the time that's pretty black and white.

Impossible they averaged that in 2018. Chacin averaged 5.2 and nobody else did (and that 5.2 meaning 5 complete innings + 2 outs in the 6th). Chase/Suter/Guerra/Peralta were 5.1. Miley/Gio/Davies 5 and they all combined for 157 of the teams starts. Davies was injured most of the season but the previous 2yrs he averaged between 5.2-6. Chacin 5.2 the past 2yrs. Nelson was always been 5.2-6. Chase has been between 5-5.2 the past 4yrs alternating (so 2019 he'd be 5.2 if keeps pace). If we add Keuchel he'll most likely be going 6 for sure on average kicking someone in the rotation to the pen (or traded). If we add Gio he went 5 for us but before that last year and previous 3yrs he's gone 5.2. Again, I don't know why this has to be said nonstop because it's blatantly obvious, they're going to operate relatively normal with the *goal* of getting as close to 6 innings as possible (or more only if someone's rolling) of high quality pitching from the rotation then turning it to the pen. Maybe that only ends up being 5.1 for some guys but the goal is going to be around 6. There's always going to be 7-8 starters for every team and we're fortunate to have that and have them be solid.

Impossible they averaged that in 2018. Chacin averaged 5.2 and nobody else did. Chase/Suter/Guerra/Peralta were 5.1. Miley/Gio/Davies 5 and they all combined for 157 of the teams starts. Davies was injured most of the season but the previous 2yrs he averaged between 5.2-6. Chacin 5.2 the past 2yrs. Nelson was always been 5.2-6. Chase has been between 5-5.2 the past 4yrs alternating (so 2019 he'd be 5.2 if keeps pace). If we add Keuchel he'll most likely be going 6 for sure on average kicking someone in the rotation to the pen (or traded). If we add Gio he went 5 for us but before that last year and previous 3yrs he's gone 5.2. Again, I don't know why this has to be said nonstop because it's blatantly obvious, they're going to operate relatively normal with the *goal* of getting as close to 6 innings as possible (or more only if someone's rolling) of high quality pitching from the rotation then turning it to the pen. Maybe that only ends up being 5.1 for some guys but the goal is going to be around 6. There's always going to be 7-8 starters for every team and we're fortunate to have that and have them be solid.

He doesn't have to "word for word" say we're using a traditional 5 man rotation because saying our starters are going to have to get a lot of outs for us to be successful means exactly that. There's going to be a rotation and within that rotation there will *always* be 3-5 additional starters getting starts during the season for various and obvious reasons. That goes for *every* team - that doesn't solely apply to the Brewers doing non-traditional things. Nobody said the Brewers weren't going to use non-traditional things aka a lefty to open against STL (if Carpenter is leadoff) then go straight to the actual starter (10% of games? and that's only if Carpenter leads off). Nobody said there wouldn't be bullpen games based on how the schedule breaks at certain points where days off could allow it to happen. Nobody said or implied we're operating like the 1980s where your starter goes 100 pitches regardless of how they're throwing. Nobody said or implied any of these things. But what *YOU* said was the Brewers were *100%* going to use an "initial out getter" going 3 innings/one time through the order (due to lack of success as the game goes on) then be followed by another starter (piggybacking), which leaves 4-5 pen arms to eat up the remaining 2-3 innings every night. This is a *strategy* you said they were doing and for the rest of us to WAIT AND SEE!!!! for this to play out, which would prove you right. Then Counsell just slammed the door in your face.

Doubling down. I like it. I think you'll end up on the wrong side of this for the most part, but I like it. You "think" he'll end up on the wrong side "for the most part"? Counsell literally just said he's 100% wrong and not even close

Still living in your own world we see. Even my 3yr old can comprehend what Counsell said within the proper context. He clearly stated what we saw in Sept/Oct isn't what we're going to see moving forward hence "it's going to look different". That being what he continued saying, which I highlighted in pink because that's my 3yr olds favorite color. He literally stated the starters are going to need to get a lot of outs. That is the complete OPPOSITE of the narrative you've pushed so hard for so long all to watch it crumble in your face with one quote from *the* guy who makes the decisions on the field. And no, there aren't people out there who agree with your interpretation above because what he said was black and white.

I put it to bed months ago using last season as evidence. What I described (again) a dozen posts up is exactly how it's going to play out. Anybody seen True Blue Brew Crew anywhere on this subject matter.....WAIT AND SEE!!!! Yep, I think your post nailed the situation. In fact, that's why it still wouldn't surprise me to see them bring in Keuchel. Not only would that give them a lefty in the rotation, it would also provide length. I'm sure True Blue will eventually show up with some sort of post backtracking on his original thoughts, though, or instead calling us all out as not truly understanding the "revolution". Agree on Keuchel. I still think Gio is a legitimate possibility as well. Would also give us 9 solid or better starters + Tomlin/Brown in AAA

I put it to bed months ago using last season as evidence. What I described (again) a dozen posts up is exactly how it's going to play out. Anybody seen True Blue Brew Crew anywhere on this subject matter.....WAIT AND SEE!!!!

Awesome

No doubt a solid return. But solid isn't what 95% of this site was saying the return would be. And neither of you dudes have any idea if Sixto would have been available or not if he didn't get injured last year because you also have no idea how good or poor he would have performed the rest of the season. Burnes' value is absolutely higher than Sixto. Again, he already proved at the highest level he can be very good while already having a high ceiling with 6yrs cheap control at the same time Sixto is in A+ coming back from elbow injury. Did Miami say they ranked Stewart higher than the other Philly Top 100s? I highly doubt it given he wasn't even ranked in their Top 30 and now he's 25 in Miami's system...rated 7 spots behind Yamamoto (the 4th piece in the Brinson deal). I find it impossible they wanted Stewart over Medina. They got Stewart as the 3rd piece because that's what Realmuto's value called for...a low level dude who has decent skills and might have a MLB career but it'll take several years to find out.

First off, you can't say Sixto blows Peralta out of the water and doing so while comparing a 19yr old Peralta vs a 19yr old Sixto. The trade just happened therefore you *should be* comparing a 22yr old Peralta vs a 20yr old Sixto because that's what people are saying when creating similar returns. So lets do that. (and Peralta was #82 in someone's final mid-season Top 100 last year before being off it right away due to graduating). Peralta age 18/19 - Rookie ball age 19/20 - A/A+ age 20/21 - A+/AA age 21 - AAA/MLB (age 22 MLB) age 22/23 - this season Sixto age 18/19 - A (18)/A+ (19) age 19/20 - A+ (19)/injured (20) age 20/21 - this season Peralta gets screwed on bf with his age level because they list the entire season, last year for example, at age 22 when he was 21 the first 9wks of the season (42% of a minor league season) and Sixto, for example, is listed age 19 (turned 20 with 5.5wks remaining). Sixto is rated where he is for several reasons - the #1 reason is that he throws 97-100 with great control of the fastball. Peralta averages 91 yet his K9 is north of 11 almost everywhere and at the MLB level he flashed plus curve/change he just can't control it well at this point and maybe he only slightly improved that control or maybe his improvement is sizable. Sixto has a crazy low BB9 solely because he controls his fastball, which is by far the easiest pitch to control. You even posted listing Fangraphs rating his *current* secondary pitching grades of 45/50/55 then quoted BA saying what his pitches "project" to be, which is what KeithStone was eluding too saying his secondary pitches absolutely need work but everyone says plus potential...except potential/projection isn't where he's at *right now* so you literally proved his point. Also, he stated a college pitcher that's drafted is around the same age as where Sixto will be this year (21) and that those pitchers this draft will be miles ahead of him with their secondary pitches. That's also true. Go look at the college pitchers the last several drafts who are top picks, given Sixto is a Top 30 overall, and you'll see those guys have advanced secondary offerings already as opposed to being ok with great potential. It doesn't matter if they'll be in A+ with Sixto potentially in AAA (end of this year) because those college pitchers are going to roll through the minors quickly (ie Burnes was in MLB 2yrs after being drafted). Those fangraphs numbers are also evidence to the main reason his BB9 being what it is - his fastball and his control of it and not his secondary pitches. Also, if he's throwing 97-100 with great control and already supposedly has great secondary offerings then why is his K9 in the low-8s in A and A+? Age per level is irrelevant here because it doesn't matter if a 19yr old or 28yr old is throwing these exact same pitches...batters don't see age they see pitches and he's not K'ing dudes while hitting triple digits like Hunter Greene is. Sixto blowing Peralta out of the water is a far cry from reality. Peralta is a MLB pitcher, 22yrs old, has 6yrs cheap control and *far* less risk while Sixto sits in A+ coming off elbow/collarbone injuries. Their values are absolutely in the same ballpark *right now*. You can talk about Top 100 rankings all you want but only 1 of these dudes has produced at a high level at every level in the minors while already making a big impression at the MLB level (age 21/22) and it isn't Sixto.

People will be somehow be shocked to see the Brewers repeat what they did last year. That being 5 starters going 5-6 innings (or into the 7th depending on how they're throwing, pitch count, score, part of the opponent batting order up, etc). Most pitchers have the occasional garbage start or a start where they might only give up 1-2 runs in 4 innings but are doing so while struggling with command allowing plenty of runners on base. In both of these instances they'll be pulled and that's where the versatility pitchers come in (ie Woodruff, Guerra, Peralta as of now) to eat up 2-3 innings. But there are going to be stretches where the entire rotation is effective so that's where these guys can be used in high leverage situations (Woodruff) or throwing the final 3 innings (Guerra/Peralta) giving the rest of the pen the night off. They can also spot start if someone needs to skip a start due to minor injury or rest (ie Burnes) but 70-75% of the time the 7-8 man pen is going to operate like a relatively normal pen. We'll just have flexibility to shut down early chaos using "starters" (Woodruff/Guerra/Peralta) to keep it from getting out of hand so we can work our way back for a W. *that is exactly what happened last year* outside of the final several weeks when they were operating like it was the playoffs because that was the only way to get there (not to mention all the injuries we had to the rotation). Then they had *one week* off between the end of the season and the CO series, which had days off within the series too. People can push the "one time through the order/initial out getter/whatever garbage term they want to use for a guy going 3 innings max to start the game" narrative all they want but that's not reality. That's not what's going to happen and there's *zero* evidence of *that* happening last year outside of the aforementioned final couple weeks and playoffs, which is when most teams operate differently for obvious reasons. Even if Woodruff and/or Peralta are in the rotation we still have Albers, Barnes, Williams, Houser, Wahl, Derby in the pen after Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Claudio + any of Woodruff, Peralta, Guerra who aren't starting. We'd also still have Brown and Tomlin in AAA who can start or be used in the versatility pen role. That's 10 rotation arms already plus some other AAA arms who would be emergency options (Wilkerson and such). Adding a Keuchel or Gio makes the rotation arms even deeper, which in turn makes the entire pitching staff deeper. Since Burnes was told he's starting I'm assuming he's joining Chacin, Chase, Davies. That 5th spot is a FA, Nelson (depending on spring) or Woodruff/Peralta (I'd bank on Peralta here if it's between them as it makes us better as a team having Woodruff in his right-handed Hader role vs Peralta there - better control and stuff plays up in short bursts).

What was Burnes' reaction when the Brewers told him "starter" means one time through the order according to bf.net

Not in practice, because assigning errors is incredibly subjective and players are still punished for bobbling balls that they get to as opposed to simply not getting to them. It has to be incredibly obviously an impossible play for an error not to get assigned if the fielder gets to the ball. Almost every player with incredible range is going to have a worse fielding percentage. Didi Gregorious and Asdrubal Cabrera had a higher fielding percentage at SS than Andrelton Simmons last season. Yes, in practice, because assigning errors is *not* *incredibly* subjective. A tiny, tiny percentage of border line plays are given errors. The hitter almost always is given the benefit, mainly due to the variables in play I previously mentioned. Just because someone has incredible range doesn't mean they're a better fielder than someone who lacks it. The vast majority of guys that stick at SS are there solely due to their range - the guys that lack that range, or don't have the arm strength, are the one's that shift over to 2b. It's not because they're worse fielders it's because they don't have the range and/or arm. Saying errors are given on incredibly difficult plays is 100% false and borderline absurd. If an error is given on an incredibly difficult play it's *solely* because the player tries to make something happen instead of eating it so they throw it away. That has nothing to do with subjectivity or a play that *should* be made by a player.

But fielding percentage is almost inversely accurate to a player's range. If you can get to a huge range of balls but miss incredibly difficult plays on the periphery, you'll have a worse fielding percentage. If you have the range of a rock but make solid throws you will have a 100% fielding percentage. Players with great range who miss incredibly difficult plays will *not* have a worse fielding percentage because they're not being given an error for that play. Errors on given for when plays *should* be made. Just because Arcia has great range and gets to a ball doesn't mean he should still get the runner out. There are a lot of variables at play - the defenders starting position, how hard is the ball struck, defenders body position when fielding (diving, sliding, on knees, etc), throwing (off balance, side arm, jump throw, back foot set in ground, etc), arm strength, how fast is the runner, did the runner stumble out of the box or trip at any point slowing them down, etc. It's never *just* if you get to a ball it's an error. Guys that get to more balls will have more opportunities to make a play but that doesn't mean they're getting an error if the play isn't made. *one* benefit of great range is simply keep the ball in the infield so runners don't take that extra base even though a play will never be made for an attempted out.