Humans Need Water

Right. The scouts that are very high on Diaz are few and far between - the general consensus is he has a very good hit tool but has limited power, is average defensively and not an impact on the bases. Which means he better hit well. I think Ortiz has the higher ceiling and think Phillips is absolutely better than Diaz. Phillips is better at everything except the hit tool and his hit tool can absolutely be average MLB. I get the O's wanting to rebuild and it helps they got 3 MLB caliber players (maybe a 4th with Bannon) but those dudes are in A+ outside of Diaz while Phillips is ready right now for 5yrs in CF and Ortiz can easily be bumped to AAA tomorrow and be in MLB within a year if they let him throw more than 70 pitches since we don't. Very interesting I don't think you will find all that many scouts that are all that high on Phillips either. In any case, this may just be that the Orioles preferred the Dodgers package despite our belief that the Brewers package may have been the better one. I'm glad DS didn't panic. Phillips scouting report has been consistent the past couple years - if you don't believe in his hit tool he's a good 4th OF and if you do he's an above avg starting CF. But he's already that right now. Not 2yrs down the road like Diaz. Phillips is above avg-plus in CF (not avg in one of the corners, most likely LF), has a cannon (not above avg), more power than Diaz (who has limited, which won't play in RF), better base runner/stealer. That's 4 tools that are easily in favor of Phillips and that's never going to change. Phillips has 26 career starts at the MLB level slashing 281/347/785 now combine that with his defense in CF and 5yrs cheap control. People here love WAR and he dropped a 1.4 in less than a month's work in a playoff race at the end of last year. Here's the story - the O's believed the hype of Diaz and that's what it comes down too. I still like the overall package they got and they decided to go with the expanded package. I get it

Good on Stearns for not budging. That would have been about the maximum I would have wanted to give up. I'm sure the Dodgers countered with Burnes/Phillips, and Stearns said nope. Will be interesting seeing how the poo-poo platter they got from the Dodgers develops. The top guy seems pretty good, but I don't know if even he has the ceiling of Ortiz. And they could have plugged Phillips into a corner spot this year, then in CF for the next 5 years. Right. The scouts that are very high on Diaz are few and far between - the general consensus is he has a very good hit tool but has limited power, is average defensively and not an impact on the bases. Which means he better hit well. I think Ortiz has the higher ceiling and think Phillips is absolutely better than Diaz. Phillips is better at everything except the hit tool and his hit tool can absolutely be average MLB. I get the O's wanting to rebuild and it helps they got 3 MLB caliber players (maybe a 4th with Bannon) but those dudes are in A+ outside of Diaz while Phillips is ready right now for 5yrs in CF and Ortiz can easily be bumped to AAA tomorrow and be in MLB within a year if they let him throw more than 70 pitches since we don't. Very interesting

Man, the Orioles are stupid. They held out for Burnes, and Stearns held his ground, and the Orioles refused to pivot. Then they basically traded Machado to the Dodgers for the 2017 version of Brett Phillips and a bunch of filler. I'm guessing they could have had a very good starting pitching prospect from the Brewers too (Woodruff or Ortiz is my guess). I kinda hope all those guys they got from the Dodgers bust now. I can't see Diaz being better than Phillips and this filler stuff isn't accurate - there's multiple MLB arms in that package

From one Gen X to another #word

Interesting comment given *your* generation raised them

Kremer basically had an awful first half of 2017 when, as a guy who it sounds like had less pitching experience than your normal college arm, he almost skipped low A and got tossed into one of the more offensively skewed leagues in the minors. He was an above average pitcher there for the second half of the season and one of the best in the league so far this year. Like Bannon, the Dodgers probably should have promoted him sooner, but even with the available data he seems much more intriguing than a lot of the Diaz and filler talk would suggest, and I think that if he were in the Brewers system we'd be mentioning him as a top-10 guy. Outside of Peralta before his promotion, the only pitcher in the Brewers system who is having a season comparable to his this year is Brown. I'm with you on Burnes + Woodruff or Brown being an overpay, and I'm not sure that the Orioles wouldn't have viewed that as the type of package they would have demanded from the Brewers. I guess my larger point is, while betting on pop-up prospects can be risky, it is perhaps even more foolish to completely discount the added value from breakout seasons, which seems to be the case in much of the analysis I've seen on this trade, primarily citing preseason prospect rankings in panning the return. (Note: I do NOT include the post I'm replying to on this list, just explaining why I'm leery of some of the opinions I was seeing immediately after the trade and why I'm skeptical that the Brewers could have gotten him for as little as some people on here seem to be assuming.) Yes, he was much better in the 2nd half in 2017, when he was shifted strictly to the pen (only 1 start final 3 months). He had 21 innings as a starter and got rocked. This year he's putting it together in the rotation. To each his own but there's no way he'd currently be rated above Hiura, Peralta, Burnes, Ortiz, Phillips, Ray, Dubon, Erceg, Nottingham, Lutz, Brown, Kodi, Diplan + Turang just to name some then you'd have to figure in Gray/Bello if they're going to be Top 15ish area players. This is the first year Kremer has done this as a starter and he's 1yr young for level. I like him and think he has a MLB arm but it's still in question whether he sticks in the rotation or the pen. I agree that the trade is much more than Diaz + fillers. There's 3-4 MLB caliber players in that deal. I think Pop gets overlooked way too much - dude was a Top 100 player pre-draft. Upper 90s with good slider will play very well in the pen and because he's a college arm and strictly in the pen he can fly through the system. Just to match we'd have to part with 2-3 very strong talents who are 1-1.5yrs away unlike the dudes LA gave up as they're all lower levels except Diaz.

Based on what evidence? He has his lowest BA in 5yrs, 2nd lowest OBP in 5yrs (by 7pts), lowest OPS in 5yrs, lowest OPS+ in 5yrs, -5 DRS lowest in 5yrs (Villar is 4-5 so going to Dozier is a sizable drop). GMs aren't going to adjust their offer because a dude has been great in the 2nd half the past 2yrs. 2nd half of the season counts just the same as the 1st half. The 1st half is meaningless because you will never have him in the first half and didn’t this year. All that matters is that he is good till the end of the year. So no, I don’t agree with your claim because he is a rental. If he wasn’t, sure, makes sense. Now I don’t know if GMs are going to take and run with the 2nd half player stuff. I don’t think the offers will reflect that fully, but certainly won’t be cheap cheap (like Walker). People are saying his value is still AS level because he's performed great the second half of the previous 2yrs, which neglects his *current* performance. That's not how it works. Your value doesn't stay AS level if you're not hitting anywhere near what you did the prior 2yrs when you actually were an AS level hitter. The first half is meaningless? What you're saying is that Machado could have hit like Arcia and he would have brought back the same package. That doesn't make any sense.

We will never get 4 years of a 4 WAR player who can play multiple positions for that package. No way. People still using WAR is hilarious. You know who another 4 WAR player is? Madison Bumgarner. Therefore Whit = Bum (get it?) Whit is about to turn 30 and 80% of his career games are at 2b. People act like he's Marwin Gonzalez playing a different position every night. Prior to this year he's hit above 288 TWICE in his career - ages 25/28 in PCL. Prior to this year he's had an OPS above 784 THREE TIMES in his career - ages 25/28 in PCL and age 25 in AA being 1yr older for level. His 2017 BA/OBP with his 2018 SLG is what to expect - 285/330/760 with a bunch of doubles and 8-10HR is what Whit is because that's who he's always been. That's who he was until 9 games ago as well. He doesn't have a track record of playing at this level because he's playing over his head (just like he was last year in the HR dept) yet somehow people are buying into him being this 124 wrc+ player for the next 4yrs through age 33. Whit is a solid player no doubt. But people wanting to give up 3 Top 12 players in our org for him is insanity. And even more insane is people wanting to give away a combined 7-8 of our Top 12 for Whit and deGrom. What an absolute nightmare that would be come 2021.

Baltimore had one of the worst systems in baseball just a couple years ago, but they had done a pretty good job of rebuilding it over the last couple years (even before this trade). Baseball America had them ranked #17 going into the season and they've gotten good performances out of many of their top prospects like Ryan Mountcastle, DL Hall, Cedric Mullins, Keegan Akin, Brenan Hanifee. MLB.com has slotted Kremer at #13, Bannon at #17 and Pop at #29. It's reasonable to assume that I had undervalued both players in the assignment of surplus values and each of them should have been valued at 5.72 million. Pop is low enough where he still gets a 2.29 million dollar value. Adding in 25.65 mlllion for Diaz then brings the total package worth to 39.38 million going to Baltimore. For the Brewers to match this, I think the package would have had to been something like: RHP-Corbin Burnes (51-75 pitcher) = 18.90 million RHP-Brandon Woodruff (between 76-100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect) = 14.66 million OF-Troy Stokes (role player prospect) = 5.72 million Total package = 39.28 million Kremer is a college arm who put up good numbers in rookie ball the year he was drafted and excellent numbers in A but he was strictly in the pen for those 15 innings. Last year he was terrible in A+ outside of his K9. This year he's 1.2yrs young for A+ and significantly improved across the board. Woodruff was injured in 2015 and the Brewers said as a result of that he was *the* pitcher to watch in 2016 as he was fully healthy and that was the year he was awesome in A+/AA...his stuff and control at that point was, and still is, better than Kremer. Brown is 1.5yrs young for AA and has better numbers across the board outside of K9. Brown is a well-rounded pitcher at this point having low-mid 90s fastball with nasty curve and good change and he's controlling them all, which is why the Brewers are very high on him. Kremer throws harder but is trailing in secondary stuff and control. Woodruff and Brown are both better than Kremer and I don't see that changing moving forward. I like Kremer though. He's a MLB arm. But I think at this point it's still a toss up if he sticks in the rotation or heads to the pen where he could be really good - probably won't know that answer until next May/June. Burnes + Woodruff/Brown alone would have been a massive overpay for Machado

Based on what evidence? He has his lowest BA in 5yrs, 2nd lowest OBP in 5yrs (by 7pts), lowest OPS in 5yrs, lowest OPS+ in 5yrs, -5 DRS lowest in 5yrs (Villar is 4-5 so going to Dozier is a sizable drop). GMs aren't going to adjust their offer because a dude has been great in the 2nd half the past 2yrs. 2nd half of the season counts just the same as the 1st half.

Realmuto seems reasonable. Not a chance on Dozier. They guy is an elite offensive 2B and with Machado off the market he will still command a premium despite being a rental. Dozier isn't even close to Machado's level as a rental. He's owed about $4M more this year. He is having a down year and given that Machado brought back only one top 25 organizational prospect, Supak and Stokes for Dozier is more than fair if we're taking on all Dozier's salary. I like Dozier, a lot, I think he could be a really good acquisition. But no one is paying premium rental prices for 2 months of an average defensive second baseman putting up a .231/.314/.423 slash line this year. We would take on the salary and then it would be a little bit more than the Ed Nothingburger that we gave up for Walker last year. I actually think Supak and Stokes is on the generous side. Yep. Neil Walker was a more consistent hitter than Dozier over the past 7yrs or so and we gave up a bucket of paint for him. Dozier is having his worst season in the past 5yrs and is an avg offensive performer at this point with average defense. I agree he'd be my top target but he isn't costing much and it's something we can easily part with. *Elite* bat is Machado. Dozier is nowhere near that. In fact, Thames has outproduced Dozier between 2017/2018 and I don't know anybody that would call him elite.

Dubon was 3.4yrs young for AA when he first arrived there with Boston and had 5 more PA than Diaz does this year. Dubon slashed 339/371/909....higher BA/OPS than Diaz. And just like Dubon it's not going to continue (CS doesn't count) because that's not the scouting report nor his skill set. It's just a matter of everything clicking for a few months. Diaz's OBP is 110pts above his BA and it's never been above 55 previously nor has he ever had an OPS above 765 prior to AA. His scouting report is consistent from site to site - great bat to ball/on-base skills, limited power, above average speed but has 6 more CS than SB over career so lacks instincts on the bases as well, above avg arm and projects as an avg RF (already moving him off of CF) but given his limited power he'll most likely have to shift over to LF. This absolutely isn't the scouting report I expect to read from a player ranked where he is. Everything about him reads as great 4th OF/maybe avg starter. I'll personally take Phillips and Ray over him at this point. I agree that it's a good total package as there are likely 3 MLB players here barring injury and maybe a 4th. I think Pop will be the most valuable when it's all said and done. I think the O's really wanted Burnes or May and when neither team went that far they shifted toward Diaz as they deemed him to then be the best player offered in any package. I'd really love to know what Stearns final offer was.

Just as I mentioned a couple hours ago - if it's a 5 player deal there's no way Diaz *and* May were included. So it's Diaz + 4 (not including May or Lux). Dodgers viewing Diaz just as they did De Leon....overrated by MLB prospect rankings thus making them part of deals because anybody they believe to be elite isn't traded

And what was the first best offer? Some local LA reporter said Diaz, May, Robinson last night while Heyman said 5 players to O's and no money coming back to LA (I highly doubt May is joining Diaz in a package that includes 5 guys when no money is heading back).

Bruan ranks 1st or 2nd on the team in *every* statcast category. He's 2nd on the team, and 36th overall in MLB, in avg exit velocity while also leading the team in barrel percentage all while having a BABIP 70-100pts lower than Cain/Yelich/Aguilar. He could very easily be hitting 50pts higher than he is. You, and others, speak of him as if he's swinging the bat like Arcia was. The Brewers are 34-20 when he starts and 21-23 when he doesn't. Braun's also a 5 DRS in LF vs Yelich 1 (who has 14 more innings there too). Back to the thread topic. So where did Santana find his power? Couch cushions or between the seats of his car? Pretty common places to lose things

I stopped paying attention but heard about Diaz. What's the supposed package at this point...

Fulmer is a guy that absolutely should be targeted - he has his occasional bad start that blows up his numbers but he's otherwise very, very good. Arcia, Woodruff, Phillips go straight into their starting lineup for 4-6yrs at premium positions and rather cheaply. Tigers lose their SS after this year with nobody in the pipeline and Phillips upgrades their current OF and is better than their current top OF prospects. Woodruff backfillls Fulmer's open spot and their top 4 prospects are pitchers (all top 100) and all 1.5-2.5yrs away still.

Brad Ford's twitter profile pic says all you need to know about Brad Ford. He's *that guy* that everyone knows

Well, if he strings together a few 1 BB/10 K type outings like the one he had last time out, those chances might creep up a little. lol agreed. odds aren't in his favor though!

He has 3 outings this year with 4ip at 81, 85, 86 pitches and has zero 3 inning outings where the pitch count is elevated. Again, he doesn't control his pitch count. Expecting him to throw 6 innings in 70 pitches every game is unrealistic. I'm on board with you that they need to let him throw the same number of pitches as Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta so that he can rack up his innings then shut him down at X point. I also get the 40 man crunch coming up but there will be plenty of trades happening that will alleviate those issues. Ortiz will most likely be in AAA next year and even if he's still in the org taking up a 40 spot he can be used in the pen shuffling in and out like they've done the past 2yrs with guys. Diplan was on our 40 this entire year while in A+ having a 0% chance of ever being called up to pitch.

Sort of. 94 pitches to get through 4.1 innings. Not encouraging to see Ortiz only go 49 pitches. Ortiz is probably about due for another non-pitching injury that prevents him from pitching for another month or so. To be frank, he has been a disappointment during his time with the Brewers. Despite his obvious talent, he's treading water at a time when true MLB-caliber starters need to take a significant next step. 2016 (4.2yrs young for AA) - final start of his 6 with us got rocked otherwise great and missed no time 2017 (3.2yrs young for AA) - missed 2wks twice (June/Aug) and almost every game above 70 pitches he went 5-7ip....16 of his 22 outings he gave up 2ER or less (1.93 ERA) with 5 shut outs and 4 other 1ER games and never gave up more than 5ER (twice) 2018 (2.4yrs young for AA) - missed 4wks (May) with injury and 6 of his 13 starts they've allowed over 70 pitches - if allowed to go 90-100 he's finishing 3 of those games at 5ip and the other 3 at 6-7ip....9 of his 13 outings given up 2ER or less (1.83 ERA). Go look at his pitch count, which he doesn't limit by his own doing, and this year they're holding him back on it. For example, his last 2 starts he went 3ip, 5h, 1er, 0bb in 49 pitches and 4ip, 5h, 3er, 0bb in 54 pitches. He could easily throw more innings almost every time out if he's allowed to throw the same as Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta were. Some of these missed starts are due to a minor injury that causes a missed start or two but they're also skipping starts here and there so it's not just injuries. Woodruff hasn't pitched in 10 days (2 starts worth of days missed) right now and he's not injured. Also, Woodruff in AA was 1.2yrs young (throwing 90+ pitches almost every start), Burnes was 2.2yrs (85 innings in 16 outings and 70% of those he's throwing around 85-95 pitches), Peralta was 3.3yrs young (63 innings in 13 outings and they let him hit 90-100 pitches almost every game). Ortiz has 52 innings in 13 outings and the majority of the time he's less than 70 pitches. He no doubt has his rough outings but everything in between is typically very good. He could easily have been in AAA by the end of last year or starting there this year but they're developing him differently than the other guys and he's still younger for level than all of them except Peralta (Woodruff/Burnes were advanced college arms too). Dude is very talented and there's no reason to rush him solely because other guys are MLB ready now. Let him continue to develop and work on things it's not going to be difficult for him to shoot up to 130 innings in a season. Peralta jumped from 80 to 120 at a younger age.

Doesn’t seem like what Stearns would do.l Yah...and three weeks ago trading for Machado was not a Stearns type move. It was almost offensive to even mention it. Now we are rumored a front runner putting together pretty substantial packages together to offer. Maybe we just don’t know what Stearns will do with a really good team. Something he hasn’t had before this year. Hasn’t even had a true contending team planned from the winter prior. 2017 was more a surprise. I keep telling people it’s too early to start assuming what Stearns is going to do or won’t do. I don’t think that offer is anywhere near what is a potential deal from Milwaukee’s side, but appears we are dangling good players. Go back to the start of this thread then go back to mid-June and you'll find the consensus being if the Brewers are a legitimate playoff team then we should be open to exploring Machado then offering their proposals. Sounds like the opposite of what you said actually. Stearns talks to anyone and everyone about anyone and everyone. Last year he added a good vet 2b in Walker and a good pen arm for us - both doing their parts to improve their spots the final 2 months. Fast forward a year and the team is in much better shape overall. A Stearns move is adding a player(s) to increase production from a spot that didn't have acceptable performance (ie last year). It just so happens that this year one of the best players on the planet is a rental. But what's not a Stearns move is giving up more value than he acquires. He has a max value on every player he targets and won't exceed that value. If people thought Machado wasn't a Stearns type move the chances are strong they were referring to him not giving up elite talent for a 2 month rental, if in fact it would have cost an absurd amount, which it doesn't.

Arcia's 2017 numbers (as a 22-year-old) indicate that is a very incorrect assumption. .277 with 15 HRs and a .731 OPS in 506 ABs. Not world-beating by any means, but when combined with slick defense, I'd take those numbers any day. He wasn't doing it with smoke and mirrors. The blanket statement of "he can't hit" is a proven fallacy. Now give me .300, and 25HR's from the SS position with that Defense, and I'm sold. So you're basically asking for a first ballot HOF player. Sweet

Did this many people think Arcia couldn't hit during his entire minor league career when he was 4yrs young for every level and his 2017 season? Or is this now a thing because he struggled hard for 2.5 months in 2018? Arcia isn't going anywhere unless it's a package for a rotation arm. Reports from guys with actual sources have been rumoring Woodruff/Broxton and Ortiz/Phillips with the Os wanting Burnes - these are much more in line with what's realistically going to happen. These guys are all prospects and a 4th OF who has the ability to be a starting CF if he improves his bat to ball skills and he's also 28yrs old. Arcia is 23 with 4yrs cheap control and GG potential at *the* premium defensive spot after hitting 277 with 730 OPS at age 22. *That* is not going for a 2 month rental let alone adding Burnes and Broxton with it

This. I just touched on Ortiz never getting respect earlier tonight. It's true. I'd rather part with Woodruff too because he's MLB ready and turns 26 in the offseason whereas Ortiz is in AAA next year at 23 (and has a higher ceiling). But if it has to be Ortiz over Woodruff I'm still not turning it down