Humans Need Water

So you're saying you won't receive better pitches with the season's MVP in Stanton hitting behind you? I never said a player's ability is attributed to the guy hitting behind him, but he will have better opportunities to succeed. Of course he will. But for the record, I never said anything about who was better. I was talking about value. And if you DO compare Realmuto's '18 season to Yelich '17 season, they're pretty close...but again, one is a catcher with half of baseball looking to add him, the other is a corner OF'er. So performance and value have no correlation? Got it!! Lets hypothetically call Yelich (X) and Realmuto (Y) the same exact offensive player. If X has 5yrs control and Y has 2 who is more valuable? Yes, Realmuto is a catcher and that's a premium position. Except Yelich isn't merely a corner OF....it's almost like he never won a GG in LF nor played a full season in CF when traded (meaning he's capable of playing all 3 spots so has ultimate versatility out there - yeah, that's valuable too).

Exactly my point. And yes, I can compare individual seasons. It's such flawed logic to think a player's ability, and success, is directly attributed to the guy standing in the on-deck circle. So you're saying you won't receive better pitches with the season's MVP in Stanton hitting behind you? I never said a player's ability is attributed to the guy hitting behind him, but he will have better opportunities to succeed. Did he receive worse pitches when Stanton didn't win MVP the other seasons? Did Yelich perform at a MVP level this year because Aguilar/Braun were in the 3 hole? You don't have to say something directly to imply it...

Exactly my point. And yes, I can compare individual seasons. It's such flawed logic to think a player's ability, and success, is directly attributed to the guy standing in the on-deck circle.

I think if you're going to trade for a guy who's still cost controlled, but is has recently struggled, you're looking for a guy who has a high ceiling, but the team that he's currently on can't wait on him to see if he'll reach said ceiling. You take a chance on them because if they put it together, at the trade deadline you have a guy you can then flip. I am just guessing, but I would think when the Marlins look at a small guy like Davies without overpowering stuff, there just isn't much reason for them to want him in return for one of the best catchers in baseball with multiple years of control left. I would place Realmuto's value at this point close to Yelich's value last year. Realmuto is definitely a more valuable asset coming off his last season as compared to Yelich at this point last year, but Yelich had more team control. So I think you'd have to look at a similar type trade. They'd want an elite prospect(Brinson was definitely elite, and not that it's the point right now, but I always thought he'd struggle until he got ~1000 PA's) in the big leagues and then start having some success. But then we also had to give up two other guys who made top 100 lists and a 4th guy who rounded out the trade and was a bit of a lottery ticket. A lefty with pedestrian stuff, but that's on top of a top 15 prospect and two other top 100-ish prospects. I don't see Davies fitting in there without them wanting Hirura or Burnes+a Woodruff/Peralta...and then at that point, you could start to maybe talk about a couple young guys with team control and mixed results in the big leagues like Santana and or Davies. I can't disagree more. Yelich outperformed Realmuto offensively over the 4yrs prior to their trades and also won a GG while Realmuto's DRS is sitting in the hard negative (but he's very good at throwing out runners). Then factor in Yelich being 2yrs younger with 3yrs more control. Yelich's 2017 > Realmuto 2018 and Yelich still posted a 120 OPS+ the year he was traded while playing CF. If Realmuto's value is similar to Yelich that means he'll bring back (1) Top 20, (1) Top 65, (1) Top 100. There's no way that's happening and I will speak in certainties in this regard.

Dubon - and he costs us zero prospects. Again, if Stearns is targeting a 2b it's going to be a productive vet as the placeholder. Not a guy that was pure trash until 2018 and you're flipping a coin on what to expect performance wise moving forward. That type of player does nothing for us right now. Profar wasn't trash last year though when he was 25. Dubon will be 25 as well next season and has done nothing at the big league level. I never said he was trash last year. But one can't negate his prior production. Dubon is 24 until right before the MLB AS break and would have been starting at SS for us by May if not for the injury. Obviously we don't know how he would have performed but we know he was killing it in AAA in April. Dubon in 85 AAA games in 2017/2018 (ages 22/23) 295/329/798 Profar in 129 AAA games in 2016/217 (ages 23/24) 286/362/789 Both in PCL. And Dubon plays good defense at both SS/2b whereas Profar is below average on the left side of the IF (at both spots). Profar no doubt has more power in his bat but Dubon is far superior at stealing bases (both good at running bases). Dubon 6yrs cheap control. Profar 2yrs with only 1yr of MLB success so no track record. I'm not saying Profar is garbage. When I say he does nothing for this team I mean he's going to be in a bench role when Hiura's up and there are plenty of guys to sign or trade for (giving up much, much less than Ray) who can fill Profar's role over the next 2yrs and be just as good or better. Plus we have Dubon internally. Therefore, he does nothing for us when it comes to trading for him, especially if people are using Ray as the trade bait.

How does one not improve after posting several years of a 57 OPS+? There's literally only one direction he can go and that's up. Hiura is the 2b of the future and he'll be ready at some point this year (most likely). It makes *zero* sense to trade a Top 100/high value CF who's starting in AAA this year for 2yrs of Profar who will, at most, start 1yr at 2b then become a role player for us. And by role player I mean he's barely going to play because Aguilar, Hiura, Arcia, Shaw are getting all the run. And we'll also have Dubon. Now factor in how well Profar will perform in a bench role given he's never been in one. Just because Profar was solid in 2018 doesn't mean he's trending up. He was slightly better than Villar in overall production last year. That's not a guy you target in a trade with Hiura almost here let alone give up a top prospect for.

Dude, if the value of the Brewers has more than tripled since MA took ownership it means the *Brewers Organization*, not MA personally (although he still is to a certain extent) is still making cash year over year. The team writes checks for players - MA isn't writing them personal checks. The Brewers Organization has been, and still is, making millions upon millions on the bottom line that can be put toward higher payrolls or whatever else they want. And it was smart of them to take that 50M they got from BAMtech to renovate Maryvale, etc as that was essentially free money for them and they put it to great use. It meant they could keep the annual cash they've been saving (which they've said publicly now) and apply it to an increase payroll during this super competitive time frame they're in the middle of. Your mind set is still "since the team has tripled in value it means *all* of that value isn't liquid" when that's absolutely not the case. This org is making cash annually. You fail to understand this.

Absolutely zero? I'm not sure any team is going to sign him as their everyday SS. He'd have as good a chance here to rebuild some value as anywhere else. It sort of makes sense because on a one year contract to show he's healthy he'd be a good bridge to Hiura at 2B. So he intentionally is refusing to play anywhere else so he could get released. Then it that case he can definitely find someone else’s DL to play on. I'd bank on the issues going much deeper than not wanting to play another position in Toronto. Nobody is happy there - on either side. I'm sure he also thinks, and rightly so, that he's a better defensive SS than the guy listed at the top of the depth chart and doesn't think he should be moved for that dude. He also knows his 38M is guaranteed so if he's released as a result then so be it as he'll get a contract somewhere. His agent mentioned the Bay Area, which means he'll have to be a utility player covering the IF as both the As and Giants are covered everywhere + Davis at DH. Would be a great depth piece for the As though. If there was mutual interest with us I wouldn't hate it but I wouldn't be excited. Don't care if he's on the DL here and there either as we still have depth to fill in at 2b (Perez, Dubon, Saladino) holding that spot for Hiura, who will most likely be up at some point this year. Combine that with him making 600K.

Dubon - and he costs us zero prospects. Again, if Stearns is targeting a 2b it's going to be a productive vet as the placeholder. Not a guy that was pure trash until 2018 and you're flipping a coin on what to expect performance wise moving forward. That type of player does nothing for us right now.

I don't want to derail this thread, and I don't mean this to come across as me singling you out because it's not just you, but I figuratively slam my head against the wall whenever I see the assumption that because the franchise has increased in value, that MA must have a ton of liquid cash available to inject into player payroll. It doesn't work that way. He would have to realize that asset appreciation by selling off ownership shares (which is what the Steinbrenners have to keep doing - all of their personal wealth is basically the Yankees franchise). Payroll is always going to be limited by the revenues generated, not the value of the net assets. Revenues were able to support payrolls near $110 million in 2014/15. With revenues increasing as they have, $150M is not unrealistic. Especially considering how low 2016 and 2017 payrolls were. I'm not advocating for kimbrel, he is likely not the best use of our assets. Just saying this whole $110M max payroll thing is a bit silly in my opinion. I think we can easily blow past that. MA's personal wealth isn't tied up in the Brewers like the Steinbrenner's. The Brewers org has made plenty of cash over the past several years - that's what happens when your investment more than triples - to jump the payroll significantly for a 2-3yr window if the right players fall in their lap.

The value of this investment has more than tripled for MA. He can go to 150M overnight if he chooses to. I can absolutely see them spending plenty of money over the next 2-3yrs as they have a legitimate chance of winning the WS

I think Taylor makes an interesting 3rd piece to a package giving a team depth in AAA who can fill in at the MLB level when needed. *Maybe* he grows into a passable 4th OF

6 years of crap is still worth nothing. The primary CF for the Rangers had a .591 OPS. Taylor would fill that hole for them... Taylor himself is a hole. Going from a 57 OPS+ to a whatever Taylor would give them (not much more) doesn't move the needle. They wouldn't be targeting Taylor anyway if we're having conversations it would be Broxton who would make the most sense as he has 4yrs cheap control, great defense and 20/40 potential. More importantly, Profar does nothing for the current Brewers team. If Stearns is getting a 2b it's going to be a vet on a 1-2yr contract who is a proven performer.

Sure, Bauer's 2018 was significantly better if you look at ERA(+)/FIP. But what about other numbers? Paxton - 1.098 whip, 7.5h, 2.4bb, 11.7k, 3.02 xFIP Bauer - 1.089 whip, 6.9h, 2.9bb, 11.3k, 3.14 xFIP Bauer's division was *significantly worse* than Paxton's in 2018 and overall the past 3yrs. These same numbers favor Paxton in 2016/2017 as well. And Paxton's 2017 was significantly better than Bauer's across the board. Yes, Bauer is 2yrs younger and has thrown more innings so he's more durable. It's realistic to expect him to throw 175 innings because that's what he's done in 3 of the past 4yrs whereas with Paxton you're expecting he's hitting his 2018 at minimum because that's what he's coming off of and he's thrown more and more innings as the years go by. But I don't believe that trumps production to the point there's a *significant* difference. I said Bauer's return should be slightly better than Paxton's and I thought that because he's coming off his 2018 and he can be expected to throw 175 innings. But his past 3yrs aren't better than Paxton's as a whole so the return should still be in the greater ballpark of each other. That's why I go back to what I initially posted - Peralta/Ray is already a significant upgrade over the Paxton trade and a significant upgrade isn't warranted based on history. I think it can be easily argued that Peralta is a better/more valuable player than Justus (at this point). And Ray destroys the other two dudes. It's just not even in the same ballpark. I'm not saying Peralta/Ray don't go there I'm saying if they do there should be something else coming back with Bauer.

Nobody else on here is talking about it but yes...I agree that I think a realistic offer should be slightly better than Paxton as he's a good barometer. Their production the past several years has been relatively similar and they both have 2yrs control. Obviously Hiura isn't going for Bauer and I highly doubt 6yrs of Burnes is either. I also think Peralta/Ray in a package is already an overpay and destroys what Paxton brought back. Peralta + 2 dudes outside our Top 10 (Diplan, Supak, Houser, etc - I'd even add Broxton as a secondary piece). If we're going Peralta/Ray then I'd expect the trade to be expanded and not just Bauer

There's no way that's an even deal in reality though. Profar was brutal his first 3yrs. And even in 2018 he was a 105 OPS+ so he had a solid year offensively but nothing super impressive and he plays below average defense with 2yrs control remaining. Ray is about to be in AAA and a Top 100. It doesn't make any sense for the Brewers to make that deal because of Ray's potential combined with us already having Arcia, Aguilar, Shaw still controlled for at least several years + Hiura up this year at some point most likely.

YEP. His 2016 was riddled with injuries and when he finally was healthy at the end of the year he killed it. Then he killed it in 2017 then he became a 4th OF due to Cain/Yelich. He's never been in a bench role. It's a different mentality/approach and that's on top of how he was affected mentally due to the trade after the production he's put up. I think people also need to look at what Santana actually did in 2018 instead of saying it was junk. He didn't hit for power in April but the first half of the month he was still hitting around 280 BA / 350 OBP then struggled the second half of April. In May he slashed 292/346/846. Now, he played a good amount both of those months due to Braun and Yelich DL stints while also hitting well so was staying in the lineup. Then in June he was given 4 starts over the first 3wks because everyone was back and healthy then he was put in AAA to play full time because he was junk as a pinch hitter (a role he's never been in until that point). Had a very good AAA then came up in Sept/Oct killing it off the bench. This kid can bang but needs an every day opportunity and for a cheap 3yrs an AL team should be all over him (given they also have the DH), especially the Indians who have a worthless OF right now and a gaping hole in the 5 spot.

That's your opinion, but plenty of players attribute their leg kick and stride as a direct correlation to their power generation. To say that it's solely a timing mechanism is inaccurate. I would absolutely agree. Obviously timing is an important aspect of the leg kick, getting his foot down in time...etc...etc...but it can also help a ton with rotation and getting your hips more into it. At least that was what I found playing....at a MUCH lower level than anyone we talk about on here for a caveat, but still. Just watch guys who are protecting with 2 strikes vs guys(Baez for example) who don't change their swing at all. They often abandon the leg kick in order stay alive or put the ball in play. When are people going to stop fabricating information to back their opinion, especially when facts are on display. If that's the case then both of you can explain to us how Jim Edmonds hit 30-40HR barely moving his front front. Your answer will prove it's done the same way everyone else does it - independent of one's leg kick. Meaning a leg kick is *solely* a timing mechanism. Full, and Hard, Stop.

We need to think of Braun as a primary starter because he is one and he swung the bat better than everyone last year except Yelich. Statcast, BABIP, eye test, etc etc all confirms this when applied in the right context. He hit 281/353/879 in the 2nd half (132 wrc+ with 9% BB rate and 16K rate) and, while he didn't hit for power in the playoffs, he was the most consistent hitter regarding making good contact (you can add 2 hits to his playoff total that Yelich took away from him - not the defense). Yes, he's going to miss games. But when he's healthy he's still hitting the ball hard and having good ABs. And while he's lost a step in the OF and on the bases he's nowhere near a liability (still an above average defender according to DRS). He has 2yrs left and as long as he's healthy he'll be the primary LF - people need to deal with this reality, which includes him still being productive. You're correct on Santana being the 4th OF and clearly he has the best bat of any bench player. People are hung up on Taylor having more versatility than Santana, which he does, therefore someone like Taylor is a better fit but that's the wrong logic being applied given our current makeup. If Santana is filling in for Yelich then he's in RF. If Santana is filling in for Cain then he's in RF with Yelich moving to CF. If Santana is filling in for Braun then he's in RF with Yelich in LF (his original position). If there's an injury to an OF then the defense is now as I just described depending on who's injured then Perez bumps up to the 4th OF spot. Broxton is also still on this team and both of these guys are significantly better backups than Taylor. I think Taylor was added to the 40 as depth/insurance in case either, or both, of Santana/Broxton are traded. But a 4th OF would then be acquired, most likely a vet like a Granderson type.

I don't think anybody puts Woodruff on the same tier as Hiura/Burnes. Bum hasn't been an ace since 2016 and his hard hit rate and barrel percentage have increased every year since 2015 while his K rate has dropped every year. The past 3yrs his exit velo has been approaching 88mph...up 2mph from 2015. He's still a very good pitcher and one every team would absolutely want but 1yr of him *is not* worth anywhere near 6yrs of Woodruff. And that's the entire point. Woodruff can be a solid rotation arm or a dominant pen arm. It's whatever Stearns/Counsell want moving forward based on how they're constructing the team because they've clearly showed they don't operate in a traditional way.

I don't think Bieber moves the needle for the Brewers so I wouldn't target him to begin with. Yeah he has nunzeo control/command but also has average velo on his fastball with average secondary pitches. He's had a H9 north of 9 everywhere outside of his 2018 minor league season, and that's as an advanced college arm, so that's not going to change facing MLB lineups. He had a 5.18 ERA over his final 16 MLB starts giving up 102 hits in 90 innings. He had 8 QS in 20 starts. His exit velo and hard hit percentage aren't good and batters had a high launch angle against him (at least this year they did). His (x) FIP are great because he literally never walks or hits anybody and I think his HR9 is pretty standard. His K9 this year was very good but that's a career high next to his A ball performance otherwise he's never been above 8.7 and most likely won't be moving forward. I personally don't believe he'll be anything more than a decent #5 because his stuff is average and he'll continue to get hit. The 6yrs cheap control is great though

Woodruff had some control issues coming out of college if I recall correctly whereas Weaver had great control so he was a more polished college product. Burnes was drafted 3 rounds after Weaver does that mean he has a worse arsenal than Weaver? Woodruff and Weaver both ended up being ranked in the greater top 50 area by scouts/pubs. I really like Weaver and don't believe 2018 is what you're getting moving forward but you can't ignore his production. Woodruff obviously has the build you never have to worry about breaking down. I would also rate Woodruff higher than Weaver but not by a wide margin or anything. They're two different pitchers too. Woodruff is big and burly with a power late breaking slider off his mid-90s fastball (when starting) working in a change I like and think he can develop well. Weaver to me is Davies + 4mph. Weaver's fastball is straight whereas Davies has movement but they both have great changes and get their curve over. I just feel that type of pitcher isn't typically more than a mid-rotation and they have to be on their game and consistent in order to even achieve that. But they're great backend starters. I believe Woodruff can be a 2.5 starter - meaning I think he falls short of being a TOR but can be slightly better than a typical mid-rotation. I think of 2017 Jimmy Nelson when I think of Woodruff's ability but with a slight increase in BB rate and a lower K/H9 rate but similar-ish effectiveness.

STL wins this trade for 2019 otherwise I love this overall for AZ. For 1 yr of Goldy you land a quality arm who hovers around mid-90s with a plus change mixing in 3 other pitches occasionally and 5yrs cheap control along with a GG potential catcher who's a top 10 in the game if he solely manages to be average offensively at that position while having 6yrs control. He didn't start hitting until AA where he was almost 3yrs young for level then over the past 3yrs in AAA he's slashed 278/373/789 over 183 games being between 3.5 - 5.5yrs young for level. He also had a great AZFL being 1.5yrs young for that. Low K rate player with a very good BB rate the past 2.5yrs. His MLB career has amounted to 27 starts and a ton of pinch hits over the past 3yrs having zero consistency so I personally don't care one bit about his MLB production just like I don't care about Nottingham's 10 games last year. He's 10 months older than Nottingham too for age comparison sake. Then factor in the draft pick and a potential backup in a couple years.

What's this HUGE gap you speak of? Are you referring to MadBum's 2013-2016 or his 2017-2018? Because what Woodruff is capable of doing isn't HUGELY far off from that 2017-2018 production....while it's likely he doesn't match the 3.30 ERA you also have to keep in mind Bum is pitching half his games in a crazy pitcher friendly park. How many fly calls have been caught that are now gone in Miller Park? And it doesn't need to be many to shift his overall ERA from 3.30 to 3.55 (4 additional earned runs - could literally be two 2 run HR that would otherwise be caught in SF). And after just calculating that I went to his career numbers to see that he has a 3.35 ERA on the road and that includes all his dominant seasons whereas his career ERA at home is 2.7 not to mention he's given up 103HR in 842 innings on the road and 59HR in 796 innings at home - proving my point. *that's* the Bum you have to compare Woodruff too - not the guy that throws half his innings in SF. The odds Bum is more valuable in 2019 vs Woodruff between 2019-2024 is *zero*. This is exactly why I wouldn't part with Woodruff. However, I'd absolutely target him as he'll still upgrade our staff and there are other position players and pitchers in the upper minors we can part with (not to mention MLB players as well).

Except *this* isn't what you're saying. You're fabricating evidence and lying about trivial nonsense to put Peralta on a pedestal because your Uncle is an ex-scout and you take his *opinion* as gold. Examples: my post laying out your lies on the Woodruff/Peralta thread. This thread - Woodruff isn't 4yrs older than Peralta. He's 3yrs 3 months and 20 some odd days older. The difference between reality and 4yrs is literally an additional full season's worth of experience. Regarding prospect rankings, Peralta absolutely was on the radar during Woodruff's peak status (43-62 ranking mid-2017/pre-2018). Peralta already had a very good A then ever better A+ (mid-2017) then even better AA (pre-2018) while being 2-3yrs young for level and he made *zero* Top 100. Woodruff's peak prospect status is literally the same time frame when Peralta blew up. And those pub rankings are heavily influenced by *active* scouts opinions. On the opinion side, I disagree Woodruff's age puts him on a tier below Peralta as they both have 6yrs control, especially considering one of them (Peralta) still has control issues and needs to develop consistency with his secondary pitches while the other (Woodruff) is essentially a finished product with good control. You also stated on this thread that *both* of Peralta's fastballs (same fourseam grip on both) are thrown *equally*. Except there's *zero* evidence to back that claim. Now on to varying success going through the lineup multiple times. In the first 7 of Woodruff's 8 starts to end 2017 he averaged between 5.2 - 6 innings per start, with a 1.23 whip and 3.76 era, not to mention his entire minor league career as a rotation arm on top of that. In 2018 he was shuffled nonstop between the rotation/pen and AAA/MLB so he rarely had a consistent role until the final month of the season and playoffs. There's gaps with his pitching dates and amount of pitches because in order for his role to work they needed to limit what he can do at times. In the meantime, Peralta was a starter all year and 5 of his 14 MLB starts he threw between 3 - 4.1 innings with a 6th start going 6 innings giving up 7er (if they didn't need him to eat up innings so badly he would've been pulled at 4.2 innings giving up 6er, if not sooner). So you don't question Peralta at all going multiple times through the order based on *half* of his MLB starts this year but you definitively state Woodruff can't? Peralta has proven success but Woodruff doesn't? (Side note for people saying Woodruff hasn't proven anything as a starter and reference his overall line - in 10 of his 12 MLB starts he's combined to post 53.1ip, 43h, 21er, 21bb, 43k, 3.54 era, 1.2 whip and that doesn't include his 2 starts in the playoffs this year where he combined 8.1ip, 5h, 3er, 2bb, 11k.....all these young guys are going to get roughed up here and there and Woodruff did vs CO this year and his 8th/final start in STL the year before and those 2 games alone ballooned the living beep out of his numbers. Woodruff has been more consistent with his starts, including playoffs, than Peralta has). On this thread you said Peralta improved his BB9 from 4.2 to 1.3 on his *rapid ascent*. False. That happened in 2014/2015 when he was in Rookie ball and repeating levels has nothing to do with improving control. What level one's at, who's standing in the box, etc has no impact on one's control. And no, it isn't "very common" for players to improve control. Control literally makes and breaks careers and the past 2yrs Peralta has been between 4-5 BB9 at each level A+ and up. The reality is if he doesn't improve his BB9 rate to upper-3 or better at the MLB level he's going to continue to be inconsistent and not reach his potential. Look at the rotation arms with 20+ starts this year who had the most BBs and see how well the vast, vast majority of them performed. Peralta had a 1.3 in Rookie ball then a 3.6 in A but he's been 4-5 BB9 since. He can improve on where he's been because he's had decent control earlier in his career but to brush it off as if it's not a concern and there's no risk with him moving forward in absurd. And I say all this believing Peralta has better stuff and a higher ceiling than Woodruff but he has control issues right now that shouldn't be easily dismissed. Dude had a 4.6 BB9 in MLB throwing his fastball 78% of the time. That's absolutely brutal. His control will determine if he's great or if he's Teheran (AS caliber one year and average the next).