Humans Need Water

I hope everyone watched Burnes tonight. He showed exactly why you don't trade him. Woodruff/Ortiz + Phillips is more than enough

He was the #5 prospect in our last poll, so I wouldn't say he isn't getting the love. There's just not much conversation about him because he's on and off the DL, and most of his outings this year have been pretty uneventful. Not bad, not great...just kind of meh for a guy who's supposed to be the #5 prospect. Yes, at his age he has a higher ceiling than most of the pitchers being discussed. It's just that I can live with letting him go vs Burnes, and especially Peralta. At least everyone has come around on him, he used be thrown out there all the time in trade packages around here. He's rated highly in the polls on this site because he's rated highly in our org by every major publication and was recently a Top 65. Last year and this year he almost never gets talked about and it's not because he's on the DL occasionally. It's as if people literally forget about him or dismiss him (ie you saying he was constantly thrown in trade packages all the time) and maybe it's due to him being at AA since 2016 (he's still 2yrs young for that level) while these other prospects continue to advance levels. I'm all for Woodruff or Ortiz vs Burnes for Machado too

Burnes and Woodruff profile similarly as mid-rotation starters. Ortiz may be a step below them right now, but might actually have the highest ceiling of all of them. He just hasn't put together than dominant minor league season yet, partially due to injury and/or conditioning concerns, as mentioned. As I've mentioned before, I don't think that Burnes's value as a prospect is all that much higher than Woodruff or even Ortiz. He had a great year last year, be his is far from a can't miss TOR starter, I think. You put Burnes/Woodruff in the same boat, and I get it, but I don't. I'm on here defending Woodruff nonstop the past week because people treat him like a throw-in when he absolutely has the talent to be a legitimate quality starting pitcher. But I rate Burnes in front of him because not only does he have 4 MLB pitches he has plus control while sitting 93-95 consistently touching 97. I believe his ceiling is higher than Woodruff and that's why I don't want him part of a 2 month rental regardless of how good that rental is - I want Peralta *and* Burnes in the rotation starting 2019. Woodruff consistently hits 95-96 and while I like both his secondary pitches he's not controlling them like Burnes does. I'm a huge Ortiz fan and he gets almost no love on this site it's like most people forget about him - and according to all reports over the past year his conditioning isn't an issue. I think he just might have the highest ceiling of them all but he's also the farthest away (I think Brown can jump him and get to MLB faster given he's an advanced college arm and I also think in 1yr Brown will be a better prospect than Woodruff). Woodruff is MLB ready now and will be 26 heading into next season - that's also why I'd prefer he be traded vs Ortiz (23) or Burnes (24).

I wouldn't do Burnes at all for Machado. Ortiz + Phillips. That still sucks but I'd do it same as if Woodruff replaced Ortiz.

I never said he was a generational talent but if we're speaking about players at certain positions he's absolutely a generational talent for 3b. My comment about his age was in response to you singling out last year's production and nit picking OBP/OPS comparing it to single seasons for Trout and Harper making Machado's production thus far, in general, seem insignificant when it's the opposite, especially for his age. Machado's 2015/2016 he posted OPS+ of 132 and 130 then dropped last year (still above avg) and now everything has clicked this year. Also, Harper's OPS+ over 3 of the past 5yrs is 111, 114, 125 (this year). And Machado is *significantly* better defensively (3b) than Harper (RF). Santana was bumped out of RF because Stearns wants to compete now and wants all-around players with good bat to ball skills. Defense and bat to ball skills have been issues for Santana. He has a very good eye and patience at the plate but his Ks tend to come from lack of bat to ball skills as opposed to swinging at garbage. But, yeah, I'm sure it was because his offensive numbers last year weren't good enough...

He literally just turned 26. Like 4 days ago. He's about to *enter* his prime

That’s way to much. Way, way too much for two guys that won’t be Brewers a season from now. I disagree, cause the Orioles would be getting quantity over quality Why can't they be getting both quantity and quality in that package?

lol is this real life? i'm going to go talk to my wall now.

Yes we all know he's a rental. Once again, hes an MVP level player at SS. We can't hold on to guys like Phillips/Santana/Broxton forever. If the Orioles covet one of them, and we can acquire Machado without giving up our best prospects, make the trade and don't look back. Huh? Our back and forth has been about you saying Woodruff, Phillips, Brown. My take was that's a massive overpay as Brown is thought of being from the same cut as Woodruff/Burnes and he's already doing it at AA. I said I'd be fine with Woodruff/Phillips because they're at spots of depth. I don't care if he's the greatest player that's ever played the game. You don't just give away anybody and everybody because you have depth. That's impulse driven idiocy at its finest.

I would call that a massive overpay. There's no way I'd part with 2 of Woodruff/Ortiz/Brown. Woodruff/Phillips would be difficult to part with but at least they're at positions of strength/depth so it's easier to swallow I'd do this deal in a heartbeat. No qualms about getting rid of Phillips because like you said, we have that OF depth. Reminder: We're talking about a borderline MVP-level player at arguably our biggest position of need. And we would be doing it without giving up one of our top 3 prospects. Sure. All pluses you mentioned. Except he's here for 2.5 *months* and we'd still have to pay like 7M. Just because we have depth doesn't mean we absolutely need to give them whatever they want or be ok with parting with folks. The way the Brewers have spoken of Brown it sounds like we're looking at someone who's following the Woodruff/Burnes path from the past 2yrs. That's a lot of controllable talent for 2.5 months

I would call that a massive overpay. There's no way I'd part with 2 of Woodruff/Ortiz/Brown. Woodruff/Phillips would be difficult to part with but at least they're at positions of strength/depth so it's easier to swallow

Hypothetically, if Woodruff is involved in the deal for Machado and the Os are high on him and we're close to potentially landing him then why would you go ahead and spot start Woodruff and risk him blowing out his elbow. What would that accomplish? Wilkerson is more than capable of spot starting. I don't get why that's difficult to comprehend - it has nothing to do with red flags around Woodruff and everything to do with not risking injury on the 11th hour of a trade for one of the best players in the game. Zack Brown was just scratched from his start - do the Brewers think he has all these red flags too all of a sudden?

lol agree on that. but not the point...

I’m not down on Woodruff at all. Baseball history is full of quality pitchers having mediocre starts to their careers. But if I’m the Orioles I would need a really good answer why we are stating Wilkerson in an important game over a top 100 prospect who should be more than ready. Why? Who cares what the Brewers do - if that decision impacts another GMs thought-process then they're weak minded. Do your own homework and due diligence and have your own opinion/believes on a player rather than rely on what other GMs think/do toward a certain player. If Ortiz was in another org I guarantee he would already have 100 innings in AAA. Instead we keep him in AA because he's young still and can afford to work on certain things before being let loose. Would you want to know why Stearns keeps him in AA after this being his 3rd year there?

I agree with that if you disregard 5 of his 8 starts last year and everything this year (outside of his Coors start) that he hasn't had success at the MLB level. The Brewers were most likely already involved in talks with the Os at the time they made their decision to bring up Wilkerson as 24-48hrs later Woodruff was scratched from his start (ie they could have known they'd have to go down that path of having Woodruff in the deal so didn't want to risk injury). Peralta is already up. Burnes already transitioned to the pen. Therefore Wilkerson is literally the next dude in line to start combined with him throwing well at AAA since he came back from his injury to start the season. Burnes is tearing it up on the road in the PCL. He throws 93-97 with 3 good secondary pitches and has more control than Woodruff. He projects to be better down the road as a result. When you have Peralta/Burnes in front of Woodruff and Ortiz/Brown behind him why not use him to land Machado? It's not that they're sour on him it's all of this combined. There's only so many spots for all these guys so they have to be traded. Ortiz/Brown are the farthest away so maybe they're in the deal instead of Woodruff

Why are we discounting Woodruff so much? He is every bit the prospect Burnes is ... the only difference is he's got some MLB time. Why in the world would we rather include Woodruff and another good arm than Burnes? I agree with you that way too many people on here discount Woodruff and his talent. But if I'm choosing who to keep I'm choosing Burnes. His secondary pitches are equal too/slightly better than Woodruff but he has more control and that's the main reason I'd keep him. Again, I don't think we need to give up Burnes to land Machad nor do I think we should. But I would use Woodruff or Ortiz if the secondary piece is Broxton. Santana was mentioned in the article too along with Arcia but they're both better players than Broxton and I think that's definitely an overpay if they're part of it along with one of our Top 5 pitching prospects.

Morosi said that 1.5-2hrs ago when I mentioned that rumored proposal. If that's what he thinks it'll end up being with us beating out the Dodgers then we might not have to go as high as Burnes. Dustin May is probably their most talented pitcher and he's 2yrs younger than Ortiz and in A+. Ortiz has to be focusing on developing certain pitches (ie throwing at certain times in certain quadrants of the zone) before they let him loose in AAA. Woodruff is 25 and MLB ready yesterday. I'd put Ortiz/May in the same boat. I don't think this requires us to go to Burnes to land Machado as we can take on all his salary whereas LA can't. We can also include secondary pieces are various positions that are MLB ready (Broxton, Houser) as well as lower tier prospects as sweeteners (these can even come from AA players on Rule 5 eligible list). Now, all this assumes they're more interested in MLB ready/upper minors pieces for the secondary ones. But I personally think Woodruff/Ortiz match up well with what the Dodgers can offer

Ruiz is already off the table and there's no way CLE parts with Mejia for a rental

I'd disagree on the damaged goods and I don't care about the aging of short pitchers when they turn 29 in May of the final year we control them. That's not old. He does have risk of course, just like Thor, except he's much cheaper. I've also mentioned Manaea and Fulmer in the past as great targets. They'll require more to acquire and I also could see Arcia potentially in a package for either. And your last point has nothing to do with anything I said so not sure why you're stating the blatantly obvious to everyone. We all know his bat is the attraction, and even though he sucks at SS (according to DRS), that side doesn't matter as much over the next 2.5 months. I questioned the Os wanting two controllable starters because that didn't make sense when analyzing who LA and the Brewers had to offer as they'd be limiting their scope for acquiring talent. Now there's reports that it's Burnes + Broxton as the offer....I can't see Burnes for a rental. Woodruff, Ortiz in his place I think it's fair to say we can all see that as realistic. Broxton makes sense as he'd upgrade at least 1 OF spot immediately for them and is controllable.

If the Os want two controllable MLB ready arms and LA has Santana included then our entire AA rotation is in the mix given he's thrown a total of 14 innings between AAA/MLB over the past 2wks and was previously in AA (78 innings total at that level) between last/this year. Woodruff is the most logical. Houser, Diplan are also on the 40 man (along with Lopez) so that would clear several spots instantly. Other Rule 5 guys as additions could be Derby, QTC, Ponce, Kirby, Bickford, Perrin, Supak or even Stokes/Gatewood/Grisham. The Os have a top prospect 3b who's performing well in AA so you'd assume they'd prefer someone who can play SS. I find it difficult to believe Stearns would part with 6yrs of Dubon for a rental while also giving up Woodruff as well. While I'd rather not even give up Woodruff in a rental situation he's sandwiched between Peralta/Burnes and Ortiz/Brown so it's not as if we can't afford to part with him to take a shot at it this year. Then we could still use Ortiz (most likely) in a package to land Stroman.

You don't think Arcia, Burnes, Ray could land 2.5yrs of Stroman? Take a look at what Sonny Gray brought back - very similar comp with Stroman. I'll take Arcia, Burnes, Ray package any day over what the As got. Yeah it's selling low on Arcia but if he doesn't rebound offensively then what? He still has plenty of value at this point. If he becomes even halfway decent offensively where his bat doesn't hurt you then there's a lot of value there. Burnes is still Top 60 and MLB ready - look at his road numbers, they're great. CS killed him. Ray absolutely has bounced back - definitely not to his elite status pre-2017 but he's putting together a strong AA and is sitting at a 121 wrc+ with a 12% BB rate and will finish with 25+ doubles, 5+ triples, 15+HR, 25+ SB. That's a strong package in general

This would certainly make a lot of sense. If Woodruff is moved though, it better be for something significant. Piggybacking off this - if Woodruff is traded, and I'd actually be shocked if him and Phillips aren't, with Peralta already up and Burnes shifting to the pen this would then bump Wilkerson up the food chain as next in line for spot starts...he's been throwing really well in AAA too, which I'm sure was a factor.

Everyone here throws WAR around so that means they use UZR when discussing how someone grades out defensively because that's the metric calculated in WAR. UZR *does not* take into account where a player is positioned. The Brewers shift more than almost every team in baseball. So, for example, if Shaw is shifted over to SS for a lefty and that hitter slaps a routine grounder to where a traditional 3b plays and it rolls into LF for a single that means Shaw is negatively graded on that play because that ball traveled at a pace and in a zone on the field where a 3b makes that play 99% of the time and he didn't make it (then compares it to the average player at that position). Whereas DRS simply grades on plays/outs made compared to the average player at that same position (doesn't matter where you are positioned to start because it's about making plays/outs). UZR is comically unreliable as a result, therefore making fWAR unreliable. The point being - Machado is horrific at SS yet nobody will mention that side of the ball. People have no problem berating Villar, Miller and anyone else potentially taking over at SS but they'll bypass Machado because of his bat and name. Machado has a -20 DRS after 3 months at SS. Villar at SS in 2016 had a 5 DRS (yeah that's right - he isn't garbage there). Miller had seasons of -2, -3, -4, -14. Saladino had a -1 in initial brief stint (like Miller right now) then 2. Last year with his nerve damage that great affected him he was -1 and this year he's 3 thus far. Arcia was 6 last year and is 9 this year. That's how bad Machado is defensively at SS as opposed to 3b where he's a freak of nature. Stearns isn't giving up Arcia, Burnes, Ray for 2 months of Machado's bat when that package can land us 2.5-3yrs of a TOR arm. His big moves have said I want to immediately improve the team as well as down the road (Shaw, Cain, Yelich) as opposed to small move rentals that immediately improve the team (Walker, Swarzak) giving up Cordell and a nobody. Given we're not resigning Machado he's not giving up anything of that kind of value for 2 months of him when that can be used to help the team now and long-term (ie Stroman, etc).

There's nothing in that article that says the Brewers are in on Machado let alone definitely in on him. Of course they're going to kick the tires to see what the asking price is but I'd bet my life that's where it ends, as it should. That article also mentioned Orf...but not Saladino. Yikes. You're really splitting hairs to say it doesn't say they're in on them but then admit of course they're kicking the tires. I even said its impossible to say to what extent they'd be in on him. Huh? I don't think you and others understand what "splitting hairs" means. You said they're *definitely* in on him. That means they're having deep discussions, doing their due diligence and working toward lining up a legitimate offer now/at crunch time. *Kicking the tires* means making a call to see what they're expecting in return simply to gauge whether it even makes sense to put in the time/effort of doing their due diligence and making an offer. They're not even remotely close to being the same.

There's nothing in that article that says the Brewers are in on Machado let alone definitely in on him. Of course they're going to kick the tires to see what the asking price is but I'd bet my life that's where it ends, as it should. That article also mentioned Orf...but not Saladino. Yikes.