Humans Need Water

That's why you look at his peripherals, which have not been trending down (in general). The larger sample demonstrates that there isn't anything about him to suggest that he should permanently underperform his peripherals. STEAMER projects a 4.3 fWAR season with a 3.43 ERA (adjusted to pitching in the AL East). That may not be a true "ace"and instead more of a #2, but he should able to maintain that for four years at very little cost. There is simply no scenario where we could acquire a true "ace" under the same circumstances. Chris Archer is the probably most valuable pitcher the Brewers have any realistic chance of adding in the next few years, aside from hoping that we get extremely lucky and some internal prospects develop into aces. That includes free agency, because generally there we would have to commit to a $100 million contract for a declining guy already in his early-to-mid 30s to even hope for similar performance. I would trade Brinson without blinking. What exactly are you looking at (peripherals) when evaluating Archer?

LOL! I'm glad the Brewers front office doesn't base their decision on what these clowns at fangraphs tout as analysis. Certain measurable pieces of their analysis have some value, but their big picture outlook has always been dreadful at best. Do you have access to better analysis? Oh my. *every* MLB team has MUCH better analytics teams in place than Fangraphs. Just because Fangraphs is one of a few places to gather advanced metrics doesn't mean it's *quality* and realistic

This. Signing a Cishek, Reed, Swarzak, etc... would be sexy and fun for Brewer fans but I am willing to go into the season with Knebel, Jeffress, Barnes, Taylor Williams and Adrian Houser in the bullpen (with the addition of a LHP somewhere). I am willing to take the chance the difference in performance between those guys and Williams and Houser is not worth $9 million. So you are willing to go into the season with exactly (1) proven arm at this juncture. Jeffress could be ok, could not be. Barnes drove us up the wall for a portion of last year, another that could be ok, could not be. The other two have no experience. Sounds like a possible disaster. We lost the division last year because our pen was SO bad for half the year. I feel like i'm living deja vu year round now instead of only with Ted Thompson. Nobody is asking for a spending bonanza, most are asking for "A" proven arm to supplement the pen. "A" as in one. It's not asking for the bank to be broken, hell it is barely digging under the couch cushions. I don't know about anyone else but i'd rather not blow 20 games again early in the year with an otherwise competitive team. Yes because Braun missing 30 games, Villar and Broxton dropping off hard, Nelson missing final month, Davies being brutal his first 4 starts, Pina missing final month, Perez taking a step back, etc all didn't affect the outcomes of games, right? Certainly the pen was an issue but there are always a ton of "what ifs" when looking back at an entire season. We missed the playoffs by 1 game - so if the pen stayed the same but everything above minimally changed then we would have made the playoffs. 1 proven arm? Knebel just dominated. Barnes was good in his 2016 time and started out incredible last year - still had a good season (10 K9, lowered H9 by 1 but his BB9 doubled and that will change). He has 100 innings - how many does one need to remain unproven? Jeffress has the longest track record of them all and has always been successful with Brewers. Hader proved in 47 innings last year he'll be a freak of nature. T.Williams throws 97 with a filthy slider - that tends to play well at this level. Suter has been really effective in his 25 innings in pen but also as a swing starter. Houser throws 95-96 with a curve (or slider) that snaps off - the org is essentially raving about how he looked at the end of the year. Who cares is Williams and Houser don't have experience yet - having the mind set of "that sounds like a disaster" because one doesn't have MLB experience is mind boggling. I guess Brinson is going to be a disaster since he only has like 40 AB. 2018 (as sits now?) - Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Barnes, Suter, T.Williams, Houser 2017 (opening day) - Feliz, Knebel, Barnes, Hughes, Torres, Marinez, Milone, Jungmann (who quickly became Scahill) We're already more talented and we haven't done anything since the end of last season.

*if* the price goes up for everyone that doesn't mean Stearns won't place X dollars on that person and it aligns on both sides. What I stated about Stearns is exactly what he said in regard to Swarzak (I just read his comments now). He agreed on years but not on dollar amount. I get why people don't like this approach, especially when off by like 1-2M annually over 2yrs but it's how he operates. He's value oriented at this point in time - maybe that changes as the team contends with all these top 10 prospects up by/during 2019 but it makes sense at this point.

I have no idea what his hard contact rate is that he gives up but I agree with the overall point. People can continue to point to his peripherals but when it's the same every year while posting a 4 ERA at what point does it become he's actually not as good as his peripherals say? He has a solid BB9, great K9 but H9, WHIP and ERA aren't impressive for a supposed Top 10 pitcher. Which is why we should be giving up less than what they're asking otherwise walk away. He's a quality pitcher for sure and would be good to have but at what price?

Why would it need to be similar to the Stanton offer? Stanton had 10/295 remaining and Greinke has 4/138 - they're both getting paid an absurd amount annually but Greinke is only 4yrs and if someone takes on the full dollar amount it's still 6yrs less and half the cost of Stanton. You overestimate Castro's value. His 2013/2015 seasons were 2017 Villar. 2016 he was still below average. His past 5yrs he's been highly inconsistent. Villar's 2016 was also better than anything Castro's done in his career. Castro's worst year (2015) was better than all but one year of Villar's career. Villar is coming off a 0.1 WAR season. Castro is coming off a 2.0 WAR season. Castro is also just a year older. Villar's career? You mean 2 full seasons (2016/2017)? Everything prior is like speaking about Phillips in terms of what he's done in his *career*. And 2015 wasn't even Castro's worst season - it was 2013. And if you want to include Villar's pre-2016 minimal work then his 2015 was also better than 6 of Castro's 8 seasons with his 2016 being better than all Castro's seasons. Not to mention Villar has 3yrs arby control while Castro is owed 21M next 2yrs + 16M option (1M buyout). It's easy to argue against Villar not having anywhere near Castro's value when you start looking at other variables that impact the final opinion. Good to know that only 2017 matters when comparing players. Castro's 2013, 2015, 2016 were between awful and below average. That's 2 of the past 3yrs and 3 of the past 5yrs - all as a full time player. I don't think Stearns is looking at Greinke anyway given his age and the dollar amount but Villar could be part of the deal a la Stanton/Castro if people are comparing it. And I stand corrected on their age difference as I peaked at their current age and not bdays - Castro is 14 months older than Villar

They are *exploring* the market. There's other avenues to explore as well - current MLB players via trade, AAA guys who are MLB ready who need an opportunity to prove themselves (there are current AAA players that have better stuff, higher ceilings than current MLB players - just an fyi - T.Williams be an example of one who happens to already be in our system)

Wrong. Feliz flaming out paved the way for Knebel being the closer most of the year. If they had signed one of the other late inning guys available that likely wouldn't have happened. No, Briggs is right. The *sole* reason the Brewers didn't make the playoffs was Feliz lol

No. I want Hader in the rotation but I'm fine with him in the pen if he ends up there, which I think he will. I'm comfortable with the pen being mainly comprised of internals at that point - Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Barnes, T.Williams, Suter (plus maybe Houser). It's not difficult to find 2 arms that are better than half of what we had last year. T.Williams needs a pen opportunity in spring. Guy throws gas with nasty slider. Tossed 51 innings last year so should easily be able to give 55-60 innings for the Brewers. Could be a huge addition from the start

Didn't get that much for Santana? Please enlighten everyone on exactly what they were offered for him.... Also, Yelich is one of those guys who truly separates himself from the pack? The guy was the the 3rd best OF on his own team last year by a WIDE margin. Ozuna has also posted similar OPS+ to Yelich in 3 of the past 4yrs while also being a 2x AS compared to 0 for Yelich. Yelich is indeed a well-rounded, consistent, quality but he's nowhere near a superstar aka someone who separates themselves from the pack (at this point).

Well Villar doesn't have close to the value of Starlin Castro, so that's not a similar offer to the one for Stanton. Why would it need to be similar to the Stanton offer? Stanton had 10/295 remaining and Greinke has 4/138 - they're both getting paid an absurd amount annually but Greinke is only 4yrs and if someone takes on the full dollar amount it's still 6yrs less and half the cost of Stanton. You overestimate Castro's value. His 2013/2015 seasons were 2017 Villar. 2016 he was still below average. His past 5yrs he's been highly inconsistent. Villar's 2016 was also better than anything Castro's done in his career.

David Stearns agrees with you. Stearns has a number for everyone and if it requires them to go above it he starts looking in other directions. That's what smart, disciplined, patient people do. Same philosophy in trades. He knows what his best offer will be and if it doesn't work then move on as there's always someone else and another way to improve. While we certainly could have afforded Swarzak and it wouldn't have affected anything the next 2yrs Stearns most likely placed X dollar amount on him and if it worked then great. If not then move on. There's plenty of other options not to mention the trade deadline

Great point. Especially coming from someone who wanted to non-tender Villar after his bad season but LOVES Dee Gordon and Panik - calling Panik an AS caliber player just the other day - even after their brutal 2015/2016 seasons

Saying this is no different than saying anyone can be traded at any time if offered the right deal, which will always be true

He also plays a lot of games at pitchers parks in Miami, Washington, and New York. His defense is much better the. Santanas. It's not worth selling the farm on him, but I wouldn't sell his talent short either. Again, Yelich isn't being traded. They're shedding payroll and he's on a team friendly deal for 5yrs and a quality player. Yes, Yelich won a GG in LF but I'd bet both Brinson and Phillips will be better than him in CF. Everyone here is better than Santana defensively. But what park he plays in doesn't matter when you have an advanced metric like OPS+/wRC+ that measures one's actual production while adjusting for park factors. It puts everyone on a level playing field and Yelich has played 4 full seasons and his OPS+ has been 115, 118, 135, 117. He's hit more than 18HR once. He's stolen more than 16 bases once. An OPS above 807 once. Santana is 1yr younger and in his first full season just put up 30HR, 15 SB, same OBP, 875 OPS and 126 OPS+ (108 in 2016). Yelich isn't a superstar nor is he trending that way present day. Very few superstars exist in the game to begin with. Every team would love having him because he's a quality player but this board vastly overrates his skill set. We don't need to take on his 58M when Brinson has the ability to outperform him for much cheaper.

The Brewers have zero loyalty to Swarzak and he has zero loyalty to the Brewers. It's crazy to think/say it's *troubling* that we didn't resign him since he enjoyed his time here.

Davis, Reed, Rondon, Watson, Duke, Hughes plus guys like Street are still there. If Stearns is targeting that controllable impact arm then I think Hader is in the pen. I think we're looking at Knebel, Hader, Jeffress, Barnes as locks then the other 4 spots come from the above FA (or others) OR Suter, T.Williams, Houser OR someone cut prior to the season OR a trade. There's plenty of time and options for building a strong pen.

This is definitely a leap of faith to just assume that Woodruff/Hader would be that good as starters. Only 44 starting pitchers had a WAR of 2.0 or better last year. It's much more likely they come in below that. WAR is a terrible stat to look at by itself. It's highly flawed. Davies was a 2.8 WAR last year and Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Ortiz all have better stuff overall and much higher ceilings.

It would have to be centered around one of the Cubs' young MLB players like Baez, Russell, Happ or Schwarber (I don't know if I'd consider him a stud, though). They have absolutely nothing left for prospects. If I'm Tampa, and the Brewers are offering a package with Santana or Brinson at the center of it, I'm taking that over any crap the Cubs could offer. I think Baez and Happ are quality starting MLB players and come with 4 and 6yrs control. *if* the Rays don't solely want prospects then the Cubs absolutely can put together a package. Russell is overrated and if I were the Cubs I'd be trading him instead of Baez. Schwarber is a DH so AL fits him at least and he's got power. He'll rebound and be a decent bat for sure but defensively he's always good for a laugh

For the millionth time we're talking about Top 12-60 prospects who are MLB ready (Brinson) or will start in AAA (Burnes/Ortiz) as the top pieces. We're not talking about a couple super talented A players who still have 2-3yrs before arrival where a lot can happen. By making your point, you're literally saying Brinson and/or Burnes/Ortiz *might not* make it to the majors, when in fact Brinson will most likely be starting in CF opening day with Burnes up at some point this year and Ortiz in 2019 (as a 23yr old). The only way this doesn't happen is if they have career ending injuries. You won't find one person anywhere on this planet that thinks *all* prospects will reach the majors. You also won't find one person who wouldn't be super excited to have Archer in our rotation. But that doesn't mean you just give up your elite prospects at your position of depth/strength because you technically can. *if* Archer is coming our way I'd much rather see a package starting with Santana/Peralta vs Brinson/Ortiz....Santana/Peralta package having a good 3rd piece obviously. Brinson/Phillips don't need to hit like Santana to match or exceed his overall production because they bring really good defense with similar (Brinson) to much better (Phillips) arms with better accuracy (and both better on the bases). And Santana is MLB proven so he's more valuable than every prospect in our system right now. In saying this, as I've said previously, if the Brewers waited one more year and gave Brinson/Phillips starter-PT and they show what they're capable of then they both become significantly more valuable than present day. It makes it that much easier to acquire a controllable impact arm.....not to mention it's another year to see what the prospects do or how they progress (especially Ray, Clark, Harrison, Nottingham, Diaz, Erceg, Bickford, Hiura but mainly in the field, etc) as they can become that much more valuable as trade chips too in a package for that arm.

Waiving Scooter who would go on to hit 27 HR and knock in 97 runs in under 500 AB was not a "minor blemish". It cost them a playoff berth. But worse was getting 2 nondescript minor leaguers for a guy who would go on to do something no Brewer hitter in history has done, that is hit 40+ HR in back to back seasons. I'm speaking of Krush Davis. It's not that he traded Davis. Eventually that was going to happen. But he jumped the gun and settled for minimal return. Davis was clearly blossoming as a premier power bat at the end of 2015. He just hadn't put it together over a full season due to an injury earlier that year. Stearns has done a lot of good things, but he severely mis-evaluated two players who were already here when he arrived. Are you referring to this same Khrush Davis? "Highly unlikely #Athletics will move Khris Davis. Opened up DH spot for him by trading Healy. Team’s payroll low enough to carry Davis’ $10M-$11M arb number, and return for DH type would be limited" - Ken Rosenthal this morning And this is *after* his back-to-back 40HR seasons. You're right, Stearns really should have kept him because the return 2yrs later absolutely sounds like it would have been better than a Top 100 catcher and talented future pen arm who was a 6th rd pick #psyche

Completely disagree with the Hundley negativity across the board. Hundley excels at throwing within 10yds - especially over the middle as he was great there the first 4 games but the past couple weeks they've gone away from that - and is very comfortable with a 2-3 step drop and release or shotgun/quick hits. He also excels at the read option and the past few games his escapability in the pocket has greatly improved. He extended drives with his legs (3x yesterday) escaping sacks and the week before he was great running the ball in the read option (need to do this more). He's been inconsistent throwing it down field but has showed pretty decent touch he's typically a tad too deep on them but he's had some nice down field throws. They don't need to throw the ball down field anyway to move the ball and score points. It's blatantly obvious that when McCarthy *consistently* calls a game plan suitable to the skill set of the players on the field they move the ball and put points on the board. But there's been a ton of garbage play calling the past 6wks. Hundley was a read option QB in college and 5th rd pick and he's scrutinized non-stop as if he's supposed to come out and light the world on fire after holding a clipboard for 2yrs. He has the potential to be a starting QB in this league but clearly needs much more game experience. And Hundley only moved the ball because CLE was playing in a prevent? Ok! If it was role reversal the comments would be "Rodgers just being Rodgers". Hundley is given zero credit for anything that happens.

Breakout - Ray/Herrera Bounce Back - Bickford/Diplan Bust - Gatewood Sleeper - Kirby Takes A Step Back - Harrison

Crazy for a team to consider moving an unusually tall, plus athlete who is a poor defender in the outfield to 1B when we have a logjam of too many outfielders, I know. Except Santana's not a poor defender nor do you have the slightest clue how challenging 1b actually is. You have a little league mentality - anybody can play 1b how difficult could it be all you're doing is playing catch, right? And height isn't a prerequisite for being a good 1b either

Simple - GMs don't care what Fangraphs WAR says nor do they make decisions based on one season's statistical production. Why do teams even play games when Fangraphs tells everyone what X player is going to do? According to Baseball Reference, Broxton has a 2.5 WAR the past 2yrs and Panik at 2.4. Fangraphs has Panik with a 2.1 WAR in 2016 when his offensive production wasn't good (88 wRC+/OPS+), especially compared to 2017 where he had a 2.0 WAR (104 wRC+/OPS+). Makes zero sense as one can assume his defense hasn't changed so how was he less valuable in 2017 than 2016? Just another example of why WAR should be way, way down the line of metrics anybody looks at when evaluating a player.