Humans Need Water

1) It's actually the Brewers who would be laughed at for that trade and there's *zero* chance it even crosses Stearns mind 2) SF *might consider* Panik for Santana? Your account should be deleted 3) Panik is not an AS caliber 2b. His past 2yrs are nowhere even remotely close to what he did in 2015 (his 2016 was a sliver better than what Villar did in 2017). He's an average offensive 2b with limited power and no speed but comes with a good glove and 3yrs control (same as Villar - who was a top tier MLB SS in 2016) 4) Santana isn't a defensive liability (Davis is, especially in the NL) and is a *far* superior offensive talent (in his prime his BA will approach, if not exceed, Davis' OBP in 2 of his past 4yrs). If he was a defensive liability then why is he still starting in RF in the NL and why are the Giants (NL team) supposedly interested in trading for him for the next 4yrs? In the meantime, it's safe to say no NL team wanted Davis because there's no DH 5) Nottingham is 22 and on the 40 man; will be in AAA next year - these things don't happen if you're not talented. Derby is 23 and was very good in the pen in AA then solid in a dozen starts at AAA. He has the potential to be a solid multi-inning pen arm in MLB and might be seen as early as 2018 if there are injuries. "suspect" isn't applicable Reality is Broxton absolutely has value. He plays above average defense in CF with a solid arm covering a sh!t ton of ground due to his plus/plus speed, which will be a huge asset for a team like SF with their big OF. He does have a high K rate but he also has power that plays in every MLB ballpark - his power/speed combo is among the best in MLB, both in terms of CF and OF overall. And he has 5yrs cheap control. And he's in his prime.

Braun nor Santana are moving to 1b. It takes a hell of a lot more than being a halfway decent athlete to handle that position. The average person thinks most anybody can play there and they're flat out wrong. i don't think trading Thames makes sense at this point. I think Aguilar ends up being traded to an AL team down the road and Brewers keep Thames until they have a 3b that forces Shaw over to 1b. He's too productive and cheap to move right now, especially since we don't have a logjam there (or at the corners).

No doubt. You can tell me all about how injuries will happen and not all prospects turn out, but you can't just sit on Braun/Santana/Brinson/Phillips/Broxton/(and maybe Thames partially). You gotta get rid of someone and not waste away value. Yes and Yes. There is no way one OF isn't moved prior to this season because you can't have Brinson or Phillips starting in AAA. I'm sure they're technically all on the table and if someone brings in a crazy offer that you can't say no to then Stearns could pull the trigger. Broxton is still the ideal trade target because even if Phillips is a quality 4th OF for his career (I think he's a quality regular) he's a lefty bat with pop, good defense and a cannon playing all 3 spots. I want nothing from SF. Panik is a steady, solid 2b but doesn't move the needle. Villar bouncing back is better than having Panik. That said, if we're trading Broxton I'm fine with other parts of SF, just not what's coming back if Santana went there

I think the comparisons are based on a computerized analysis of their minor league statistics and age or whatever, not something to be taken too seriously. This was a great write up. I find grades and rankings largely meaningless, so it was nice to actually have an explanation for the author's views on each player and his strengths/weaknesses, rather than just throwing out a number and writing some empty platitudes. I agree regarding grades/rankings for the most part. Comparing players is pointless to begin with as everyone's different and there's a lot of variables in play for each player including intangibles, which don't show up on paper. The only plus to this article is the extensive write-ups and effort put into this aspect. But even then there's way too much inaccuracy on basic topics

If it's not and they agreed on the framework it would make sense it's over. The history of the franchise, big city, they're legitimate contenders annually moving forward and have a lot of talent in the farm. He can nix the deal but I don't see why just looking at everything on the surface

lol yeah I'm to go with the guy that works with him daily *knowing* exactly what he throws It's very possible he works in the 89 - 92 range and touches mid 90's occasionally. Also possible his velo was down a tick when that guy from BP scouted him. Disagree. The pitching coach said he sits in the 91-95 range so he's not working in the 89-92 range. The pitching coach is with him day in and day out whereas scouts might see him throw 2-3x/season. Could very well be the case the time the BP scout saw him he was 89-92 for whatever reason. But that BP article was written almost *3 months after* the pitching coach interview, not to mention this Fangraphs article came out yesterday so 5 months after the pitching coach article. Wouldn't it be one's job to know what others in the org are saying about the players they're covering so it can be mentioned when informing the public?

Just saw the comparisons for the first time now. They make sense given the article was terrible. Hiura = Justin Turner (different players on both sides of the ball) Harrison (55, AS ceiling, can stay in CF) = Craig Monroe (corner OF, 4yr starter split between being average and slightly above average while stealing more than 4 bases *once*. Was garbage next 3yrs then out of baseball. Fangraphs is on their knees right now when it comes to Harrison and this is what the comparison is) Ortiz (55) = Ryan Rowland-Smith (garbage starter who spent 1/3 of his 3.5yr career in the pen) Corbin Burnes (55) = Jason Jennings (high whip, 4 BB9, 6 K9 - wasn't even good away from Coors) Woodruff (50) = David Nied (never heard of him. 2yr starter then out of league, high whip, 4 BB9, 5.5 K9) Peralta (45 with mid-rotation potential, which in and of itself doesn't make sense) = Jon Lester (4x AS - top 4 in CY voting 3x) Dubon (45 with no power, *maybe* a starter) = Alfonso Soriano (1HR shy of doing 40/40 twice - 7x AS) Bickford (40) = Tyler Clippard (2x AS, 7yr dominant run) Kodi (40 and pegged a LOOGY) = CJ Wilson (2x AS as SP after moving from the pen to the rotation)

lol yeah I'm to go with the guy that works with him daily *knowing* exactly what he throws

Stephen Vogt His hit tool is still around a 45. Nottingham at 30 is about a 220 hitter. That's for already correcting his Vogt nomination. 30 is nowhere near 45 if we agree Vogt is below-average offensively. Still Waiting.... Homer, you're right, the article said "potential backup", which still means that given his ratings on him he can be a MLB backup catcher...

What a terrible article filled with information nobody else has said/reported or is just plain inaccurate. Peralta's pitching coach said he consistently throws 91-95 with his fastball being his most dangerous pitch yet this article says 89-92 (that 2-3mph is a big difference). Harrison with an 80 arm throwing darts from the warning track to home plate with ease - he was clocked at like 92mph on a put out in the AZFL while Phillips (70 arm) threw 2-3 of the highest clocked throws in MLB around 104mph. Unless Harrison is throwing 110mph he doesn't have a 80 arm based on how he ranks Phillips (yes I'm aware Harrison has a great arm it's just inaccurate information - again). When has anyone ever reported Brinson *requires* the retaining of his speed *just* to be an *avergae* defender? Never, because it isn't true. Clark with a 45 arm and Ray 40 OMG where do they come up with this stuff? Etc, Etc, Etc. I get that it's fun to read paragraphs and write-ups on our prospects but if they can't get basic sh!t right then how does one not question it's validity? Nottingham is a future 40 overall with a future 30 hit tool and future 40 defense *but* will be a backup MLB catcher. Ummm, how? Name 1 backup catcher in MLB that is below-below-average defensively while having an even worse hit tool? You can't. Because that person isn't a MLB player. If Crash Davis can't make it to the Show then the player described above has no chance either.

Broxton plays good defense in CF (premium spot), has solid arm and crazy speed. Offensively he was one of 6 MLB OF with 20/20 last year and that was in a down season with 100+ fewer PA then "full time" guys. 2016 he was above average offensively. He's 27 with 5yrs control. Yeah, sounds like *junk*

I personally think peak Santana is dropping a line of 300/385/950. His production in the minors shows he has crazy offensive upside, especially being insanely young for all levels too.

Why do you want us to lose 90 games? Pitching wins championships. We lose Khris Davis and Santana takes his place. We improve big time, yet we have similiar numbers from both outfielders. What changed the record for the better last year? Improved pitching.......but not enough to make the playoffs. What do we have a surplus of? OF The 3 way offer seems to make sense all the way around, but hey I sit in the cheap seats. So what do I know. Yeah because Shaw over Hill, Thames over Carter, Santana hitting near his potential, Pina performing very well in place of Lucroy, Sogard bouncing back after being healthy in years and Aguilar being great both improved our bench big time all had nothing to do with it. They *only* improved because of pitching even though half the pen was junk for 4 months. In 2018, Brinson or Phillips aren't replacing what Santana did so that's a downgrade. Unless you get an insane offer you literally can't say no to then you're not trading Santana. Brewers have 5 starting MLB OF on their roster right now - someone needs to get moved (ideally Broxton). Pitching doesn't win championships. Excelling in all facets of the game, along with some luck, wins championships.

The Marlins aren't trading Yelich. Braun's not playing anywhere other than LF. Thames doesn't need lots of days off for mental reasons nor will that happen. If the Brewers don't acquire a 2b then Villar is starting and playing full-time unless struggles hard for an extended period of time while the team is in playoff contention. Barring injury in ST Brinson will be starting in CF - he has 433 PA in AAA and is ready. Dee Gordon is 3yrs+ older than Villar, was already an AS and his 2016 was a sliver better than 2017 Villar. The Brewers believe in him and he would have been out there every day last year working through it if not for the team leading the division for 4 months. It's a new season, he turns 27 so still plenty young and is talented. Filling out the top 4 in the lineup based solely on OBP or OPS is short sighted. Thames, Braun, Shaw, Santana were 2-5 when all were in the lineup together last year and that's probably not going to change. Villar or Brinson will be leadoff (if the current roster doesn't change) with the other in the 6 hole followed by Pina, Arcia. When Aguilar is in there he can replace Santana at 5 as he then moves up to 2. Phillips would be good for 6 spot. Sogard for leadoff as a backup but also at the bottom depending who's in the lineup that's day. Trade Broxton and Perez.

That first line you posted Santana was 4yrs young for level at AA while Harrison was split between age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+). Harrison at 21 split age level (A) and 1.5yrs young (A+) 272/350/832 Santana at 21 was 5.5yrs young (AAA) 296/384/858 This all revolves around what you *believe*. Plain and simple. Rationalizing this by saying Santana got a head start by playing rookie ball at 16 and A at 17 is absurd (he was trash in A at 17) as he still has to perform. Harrison had 200 more PA this year than each of the previous 2yrs - but you attempt to make it seem as though Harrison barely touched a ball prior to being drafted and has played injured nonstop for 3yrs Okay new rationalization on what I'm preaching on Harrison and different perspective: 59 252 230 41 64 16 1 10 35 16 1 14 69 .278 .341 .487 .828 60 270 243 26 58 13 2 5 17 10 6 23 58 .239 .307 .370 .678 The top are the numbers for Harrison at Carolina A+ ball The bottom are the numbers Corey Ray put up after being drafted out of college. This is where Harrison would be at if he'd have gone to college and then was draft eligible in '16. If this were true and Harrison put this number line up after drafted this year how are you feeling towards him and comparing to the numbers I put to Santana? The progress this year and numbers are excellent. Just because he was drafted out of High School doesn't mean he's nothing if he's not making it to the Majors at age 23. A team gets 6-6.7 years of team control. If Harrison were 24 projecting out to 27 as a Rookie, I'd dismiss enthusiasm. But he's 22 turning 23 during next season in AA potentially reaching AAA. So long as he's reaching by age 26 year, you have control of that prospect til age 32. I'll take it every time if it's just his peak age years. So, he won't have a 16+years career. We only need the peak years, which is why I voice extending Arcia because he won't be but 29 his final controlled season. Harrison can still prosper for the Brewers to their fullest extent of team control. What should he be posting to compare to Santana? I'm just seeing this now so late to the party. My Oh My. Harrison had 3yrs of professional coaching and was using a wood bat. Ray had 3yrs of college coaching and was using an aluminum bat. Keep making blanket arguments to support your perspective. Ray has nothing to do with comparing Harrison to Santana. *Nothing*. Harrison's numbers at age level in A - 265/359/834 - are not *excellent*. He absolutely was productive and had a good season at both levels but he wasn't *excellent*. The rest of your rant has nothing to do with anything as I've never said nor implied anything remotely close to that nonsense. Of course Harrison can grow as a player. He's 22. Why are you so desperate to compare him to Santana? Who cares. Santana was always at least 3.5yrs young for every level - Harrison will never be that unless he's in AAA at 23. Why don't you just let Harrison be himself instead of comparing him to somebody else who's having success at the MLB level? I hope Harrison is a Top 100. It only benefits us.

I agree that the "best" trade is our surplus for their surplus...but that's a harder trade to find than one thinks. Keon Broxton will still probably only net you a Mike Fiers-esque pitcher that has a Mike Fiers-esque contract. Either that or you're trading Broxton to someone to eat the salary of Jeff Samardzija (no longer realistic), which is almost like signing an overpriced free agent. Trading for a pitcher that's closer to free agency is even more head-scratching. The Brewers have a long window in my opinion. A small chance to win the next two years and hopefully a larger chance to win 2020 and later. Making a trade for Cole Hamels in theory means that we'll enter 2020 without Cole Hames AND without the prospects we gave up for him. Who mentioned Hamels? And I strongly disagree on Broxton only being able to fetch only a Fiers or Samardzija type (and nobody in between). Broxton plays good defense in CF (can also play both corners), has a solid arm and great speed in the field and on the bases. He was 20/20 with a 300 OBP/720 OPS in a down season after being above average offensively the season before. He has 5yrs cheap control entering his prime. Moving forward he realistically can be somewhere between his 2016/2017 seasons, if not better than that middle ground, which makes him an average or slightly above average every day CF. He has value. There were 6 OF last year that were 20/20. *SIX* And 2 were CF (Trout and Broxton). Chase, Davies, Woodruff are locks for the rotation this year - if Hader is given an opportunity there's 1 open spot. Hence needing an arm for *one year* because you'll also have Nelson back at some point this year and realistically can expect Burnes to take a rotation spot in 2019. Unless they're planning on moving Hader to the pen full-time *AND* trading a current rotation arm by 2019 why wouldn't we need an arm for *one year*? There are only two options for acquiring that type of player - sign a vet FA to a 1yr deal or trading for someone with 1yr remaining on contract. Please explain what's head scratching about all this? The Brewers don't need to use Broxton or Perez for a MLB arm as they could also target a AAA pitcher they believe in, who's MLB ready, that's blocked at the moment. They also have a deep system and can easily afford to part with 1 or 2 *ok* prospects for a MLB arm that's an upgrade over Garza. Prospects that won't affect anything moving forward. Other teams have backend starters who are in their contract years that could be moved for a variety of reasons - quality MLB prospects needing a spot as they're MLB ready, acquisition of a controllable FA pushing them out, etc etc. None of this is difficult because there are *options* everywhere that don't require signing a FA for 3-4yrs or trading Brinson and company for 3-4yrs of a proven arm.

You make that sound like that's a good/great thing, though. Say we trade 3 good prospects for Chris Archer. That's 3 slots that in 2019 or 2020 that we won't have a good MLB player making $550,000. Instead, we'll have to go to free agency and pay $4 or 5 million for that position (if we're in a competitive position) or we'll go to the next prospect up which may not be as good of a player. On top of that, while Archer's deal is very affordable...it's still $7 million/year. You don't need to trade for the Archer's of the world. You can trade for someone who's a FA after this year or the next. Stearns can also trade from the depth of his MLB team - Broxton, Perez

Stearns doesn't have to do anything. Who cares what Seattle or the Marlins do - they don't dictate Stearns' strategy

I don't care about Chatwood because I still prefer to sign a vet for 1yr until Burnes takes over or trade a prospect (nobody that's part of the future) for a vet with 1yr remaining on contract. 2018 has Chase, Davies, Woodruff, Hader + vet.....still leaves Suter, Guerra, Wilkerson internally to fill in if needed and Nelson back at some point. No way I'd pay the price for any of these FA pitchers

Yes, Grand Canyon is 7hrs round trip that we'll be making once kids are older and we go for a full week since it requires an overnight for us (will spend too much time there and in that area for a day trip). But that's a great suggestion. Vegas is 5hrs away and I've never made the trip since we don't gamble. However, a city much better than Vegas is only 30min farther in the car...San Diego

Agree with this. If he indeed spends most of this year in AA and he's effective and has good speed it'll be interesting to see if they just add him to the 40 man starting in AAA in 2019 or package him at the deadline.

You're boggling your mind over 2 million in INCENTIVES when the Brewers are a 35 million dollar payroll operation? I'd hate to see your thoughts on a reliever signed for 10 mil a year guaranteed. Stearns low ball offers Hughes around a million then signs Jeffress for 1.75 and 2.2 in extra incentives. It's truly is an insult to Hughes when he was arguably one of the best relievers on the team. Look at the track record with him and Jeffress, Hughes is better. And he pitched in a lot more high leverage and difficult situations than Jeffress did last year. You are correct 5 million is pennies to a team and 10 million is around a buck. Jeffress will have a nice 4.5 era with a whip of 1.40 so I guess that's worth just over 2 million. Track record doesn't mean *last year*. I did look at their track record and outside of 2017 (mostly spent with TX where he clearly wasn't comfortable on or off the field) Jeffress has absolutely outproduced Hughes the 3yrs prior - in every single category outside of ERA for 2 of those years. You all love advanced metrics so look at the difference in Hughes ERA and (x)FIP - its drastic. Jeffress was a closer, Hughes was not. Jeffress is also 2.5yrs younger, throws harder with filthier stuff and has more team control whereas Hughes is a FA after this year. If he's not signed after the Brewers kick the tires on who they want then I'm sure they'll come to an agreement because he did perform well. There's literally nothing bad about this deal. And Jeffress is better than Hughes.

His fastball was 89-91 when he started throwing at the end of this year in rookie ball. In 2016 he was 88-92 most of the year and 89-92 in the Futures Game. So, no, it's not way down. He's an advanced arm with advanced command who didn't have an arm injury. He'll spend the bulk of his time in AA and could get a sniff of AAA by season's end.

Not really. You're so blinded by your hate for him that you literally can't comprehend something as basic as *incentives*, which are mostly earned via good performance. Yeah, very mind boggling that a player would be offered incentives for performing well, especially since his base salary is lower than projected. Must be a new contract negotiation tactic this industry is just picking up on. You're not concerned with the past only about moving forward except the first thing out of your mouth was regarding his *past*. And Jeffress improved last year over the final 2 months when came back here, after previously pitching very well for us for what amounts to 2 full seasons over the previous 3yrs. So where's the evidence he's going to most likely decline? And these are team options, not player. If he doesn't perform the Brewers drop him and there's nothing lost. I'm going to help you out and make sure Stearns knows that you'll be mad if Jeffress is on the roster with Williams in AAA. I'm hoping that'll influence his decision making so he can make us better and not worse. I'll also let him know he should only sign role models moving forward.

I'd rather have both and get rid of Drake. The fact that they looked to save money on these two tells me they are reasonably confident they can sign Swarzak. Otherwise, why non tender a guy like Hughes who gave them some solid if not real consistent work in high leverage situations? Jeffress has been nothing but productive in a Brewers uniform. His stuff looked much better by the end of the season and he'll be solid, at minimum, moving forward. The money aspect is a good deal for both sides and won't handicap any future deals over its length. I don't think signing Vogt and Jeffress at X dollar amount tells anybody anything. If they want to sign Swarzak, Reed + 1 more good vet they can sign them. Hughes was very good and very consistent last year and I would have been more than fine tendering him at 2M. But right now they're looking at Knebel, Hader (if not in rotation), Barnes, Jeffress. I think they should keep Suter in the pen full time as he's been effective there and is a big change from our rotation and pen guys around him (plus he's a lefty). That's 5. If they plan on Houser/T.Williams/Baker types to start the season as the swinging door 8 spot that still leaves 2 spots via FA/trade (ie Swarzak + 1). The pen will be significantly better than last year. I don't pay much attention to who's on the 40 right now as there's no way Drake remains on it and there's 2-3 others that can easily be gone as well (plus a catcher on top of that).