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dadofandrew

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Everything posted by dadofandrew

  1. dadofandrew
    Ben's chances are better than mine. That's about as optimistic as I can be about a 28 year-old who has barely seen AA.
  2. dadofandrew
    Roto is 100% correct in his analysis. There's plenty of value in a mediocre LF, especially if he makes $400K. Carlos, at $8M, better produce, or he's a wasteland.
  3. dadofandrew
    Carlos should be on his way down, as he's well past 27. Expecting him to match or better career highs is asking too much.
  4. dadofandrew
    I rarely read his stuff, but I sure would if I were a GM. His guys would seem to be an excellent way to spend some mid-late round picks.
  5. dadofandrew
    BA has no use to me. AS stated by others, a .300 hitter that never walks and slaps singles is, at best, OK. Some .270 hitters are HOF'ers. Mainly, OBP and SLG "work". There's no such formula that uses BA, as far as I know.
  6. dadofandrew
    If no one is picked up, Dana will be in the mix for the 5th spot
  7. dadofandrew
    Dana pitched decently for a 21 year-old until September, I'll say that. And i will agree with Colby he looked very good a few times, though it's not difficult to get a couple batters out.
  8. dadofandrew
    Colby, I pointed out before Dana "fell apart" that his numbers were almost identical to DLR's, yet the misconception was Dana was doing well and DLR was struggling. To say he was doing a good job with a 4+ ERA while never facing a hitter more than once is wrong, in my opinion. Link to my post that DLR and Dana were statistical twins back in mid-September.
  9. dadofandrew
    Dana barely pitched more than in '04. The Crew limited his innings very nicely.
  10. dadofandrew
    Mass, it was hard to not notice Dana getting bigger. His pitching was never good, and he fell apart at the end. Perhaps he was hiding an injury, but it is easy to imagine him simply being out of shape. Mentally, saying he'd just as soon call it a year, he seems a bit weak. JJ may be banged up, but he showed no interest in taking a week or two off and then getting some AB's. Mentally fatigued? He's a 22 year-old who got 372 AB's...almost anyone would give anything to be in that situation. I never knew what tired was until I was 25.
  11. dadofandrew
    Great experience for Escobar, but I have to wonder how he's not "tired", as unless he was injured, he must have more AB's than Hardy. I must admit, I'm disappointed in how little Hardy and Eveland seem to care about working hard to improve their game.
  12. dadofandrew
    Allow me to say he's not an embarassing AAA C. He's 29 and got out 71% of the time versus AAA arms. His ceiling is of a poor reserve.
  13. dadofandrew
    I'm sure I'm repeating stuff, but: Range factor is worthless when comparing players from sepatrate teams. A SS playing for a RH, fly ball staff could have outstanding range and still have a bad range factor. I wonder if the alien defense hurts the players in all defensive categories, as I don't think any adjustments are made. I find it difficult to believe anyone is still using RF, as it's been years since anyone took it seriously.
  14. dadofandrew
    I'm not sure I can consider fawning over Dave's potential and athletic ability to be critical. He basically said that, like Bill Hall, he was a HS kid that needs to mature. For a guy that did not improve at all (Cecil said he had not really paid attention, however) in 2005, Dave still has a ton of nice things said about him. The apparent snub (no call-up) will hopefully lead him to show up to Arizona in great shape, ready to listen and learn.
  15. dadofandrew
    Allow me to chime in, what a fine post, Joe. I would prefer some sort of age factor to let guys like Escobar look better, but that's not what this does. Note that Hart is about an average corner OF, which is what many of us have guessed, and also seen, as he's hit the ball well, albeit in bad luck.
  16. dadofandrew
    UZR is, from what I've seen, an extreme stat. It always says players are worth or not worth far more than most folks feel D is worth. The example cited is often the case with it, so it seems likely it exaggerates the value of defense.
  17. dadofandrew
    Without a doubt, yes. The fact he isn't in is an embarassment to the writers.
  18. dadofandrew
    Ironically, Gibson's HR came with a man on 1B, so no RISP came into play. Note: Unless Davis stole 2B???
  19. dadofandrew
    First of all, OBP is fueled by plate appearances and NOT at bats. As we know, walks aren't factored into at bat totals, so there's more than a 2% accuracy skew right there, right? Maybe Bill James will give you a real reason, but I've always understood AB's are used simply because that's the way the formula works best. Secondly, I'll never be convinced that a formula can ever be used to 98% correctly track a player's offensive contributions if it doesn't account for bad baserunning, smart situational hitting (i.e., not grounding out when there's 1 out and the tying run on 3rd) or at least SOME nod to hitting when men are on base. You can have your own beliefs, but I sinmply think most of that stuff simply balances out. Realistically, "bad" baserunning isn't a major factor over 162. Sometimes, you'll even be rewarded for bad baserunning, as the fielder will drop the ball, it'll short-hop the catcher and it will get past them, allowing a run and an advance, etc. Also, you concede that, on a player-vs-player basis, OPS falls below the 98% accuracy rate. How far would you say, though? I'd say it drops quite a bit, even when comparing a 2004 player vs. his own 2005 output. It's that tough to factor. I've never seen the team total at less than 90%, so I'd hate to go less than that. I'd say luck is a bigger factor than anything else not measured by OPS, the difference between a game ending DP and a game winning base hit is inches, and for the most part, isn't something the batter controls...other than how hard he hits it.
  20. dadofandrew
    Russ may well have explained it, but all that matters is it works with AB's, not PA's. Geno, if it is 98% accurate for teams, who are teams made up of...players. You can argue that it's slightly less accurate for individuals, but when you add them up, it's still 98%. Splitter, OXS is better because OPS automatically weighs SLG more than OBP, because SLG is naturally higher. Example: Player A: .300 OBP, .400 SLG, 700 OPS, 120 OXS Player B: .350 OBP, .350 SLG, 700 OPS, 123 OXS Player B is better, but the difference is minimal, even in this example, where the difference is great. Hence, since OPS can be figured easily in your head, it's just about as good as OXS, which cannot be, for the most part.
  21. dadofandrew
    It's entirely possible those 18 hits wouldn't have won even a single game, as most RISP situations come in games in which you score a lot of runs. Also, I did this last year, same situations, same amount of runs, but opposite RISP numbers. It's a meaningless statistic. I'm still amazed that OXS (of which, OPS is almost as good) is 98% accurate, and people still insist on digging up numbers a fraction as meaningful.
  22. dadofandrew
    I agree with JP 100%. I despise the SAC bunt, unless that run will pretty much win you the game.
  23. dadofandrew
    So, what team is Matt Harrington pitching for? Someone needs to hand those young men a pen. $3.8M is life changing money, take it and run.
  24. dadofandrew
    Kremblas seems to do a lot of whining and such in the media. To be honest, his AAA team is more like a AA1/2 club, having lost Prince and Corey of late. I think he's campaigning for a big league job in the wrong manner. Constant bellyaching doesn't cut it.
  25. dadofandrew
    If Jemile is indeed an 8th round talent, they can't give him much more than slot value, which I would estimate to be about $100-150K. Sounds like the family is big on education, so they probably wanted 3rd round money to sign, or something laong those lines. Too bad, but remember, much of that money is simply flushed away, as only 10% or so ever see the bigs.
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