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TJseven7

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Everything posted by TJseven7

  1. TJseven7
    See when they signed Garcia they said he'd play in LF and I was quite irritated by that. Yelich is a better LF and Garcia is plus grade (.9 UZR per year) in RF over the last 5 years.. Braun though... O.O Can we play Yelich in RF when Braun plays outfield please. Braun is not good in RF. He's been neutral in LF the last 4 years.
  2. TJseven7
    Again, 67% FB and nothing other than the FB graded positive. How is that a starters arsenal? You could ask Freddie to throw a bad cutter slider knuckle ball and he'd still be a 1.5 pitch guy that throws 3 other junk pitches.
  3. TJseven7
    Problem with 7 is: 160 starts (omit Pom and Barnes) 784.2 IP That's like 4.9 IP per start first off. Yuck. If that alone isn't a reason to have Houser Suter Peralta and Hader picking up 2IP at a time I don't know what is. 160x5 is 800. So assume 180-160-160-160-140. There's a big gain on the -4 bottom. I give you that. 1st starter (Lyles 11 Davies 22) 171.2 IP in 33 starts. ERA 3.18 2nd starter (Davies 9 Woodruff 22) 168 IP in 31 starts. ERA 3.60 It's going to be really hard to not lose WAR there. You also had 17 Gio starts at 3.8 ERA and 27 for Chase at 4.2. That covers all of 3 and pushes into 4. There are 4 WAR of low hanging fruit there to be taken back with a stable starting rotation. I don't know who we expect to put up a 3.2 and how many of these guys we expect to put up sub 4.0s. I could see 5 wins better but 7 is pushing it really hard.
  4. TJseven7
    He was also signed out of high school and was consistently 2-3 years younger than league average. He made the majors at the age of 22. Glad someone else realizes this. 1st half: 19 G, 5 GS, 42.2 IP, 1.453 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.47 K/BB, .796 OPS-A 2nd half: 16 G, 13 GS, 68.2 IP, 1.107 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.89 K/BB, .656 OPS-A And in his 3 relief appearances in the 2nd half he had a 3.60 ERA and gave up a home run, so it's not like they made his 2nd half numbers better. So 1st 2nd 3rd time through samples are too small. His minors starting numbers, he was too young, so that's thrown out. But 1h 2h samples in 2019 are fine? There's a lot more evidence on the RP side than the starter side. Part of that is that he has good stuff (FB dominant) but he wasn't a very good starter in the minors. Those guys are relievers in the majors. I mean the great pitch mix people are talking about is 67% FB (2 and 4) and that's the ONLY pitch that grades out positively. PS making the majors for 2 innings is not what I'd call making the majors. Devin Williams made the majors more than that last year he wasn't basically avoided.
  5. TJseven7
    A lot of people were interested in this guy in the off season thread, being one of them I'm pretty happy about this. Boy is this a shot at Arcia though. Urias is going to miss some time. They bring in Holt. Pushes Sogard off 3b more and really limits the ABs for Arcia at SS. They didn't just add him for a month or 2. Arcia is in VERY hot water now. It's crazy seeing the Holt Gyorko platoon topping Moose. Congrats to the Red for paying money.
  6. TJseven7
    Yes, Counsell's hands are tied. What do you expect him to do? Pay him out of his own pocket? Speak on his behalf at his arbitration hearing? Come on. Both things would be way outside the limits of professionalism, and even Hader knows that. No, Hader is not going to be able to hold out or ask for his release. Simply not how it works in MLB. The irony is that he is probably going to do exactly what you said in your last sentence if you give him the chance to. He simply responded to a question he was asked. It's no different than your company limiting raises at 2.5% and your boss saying you deserve 5%. Of course you do, but you're going to get the max 2.5% and then go back to doing exactly what you did in the past which made you worth 5%. This is business. Not a fairy tale.
  7. TJseven7
    Right and gaining the 3.9 negative WAR back by replacing their innings and Chacins with quality innings is a great way to remove 4 negative war. Gaining 3 additional positive WAR improvement over the starters that pitched last year is the part that's going to be difficult. You can't just go... ok this guy pitched these innings and they could do that too. To have a 7 war IMPROVEMENT you have to negate the 3 (Chacin Burnes Peralta) negative and then expound upon the WAR that other quality options were able to achieve. 88.2 on Chacin, 35.2 of Peralta, 17.2 of Burnes is only 143 innings. You had a couple bad starts from Nelson, but then your next weakest link was Houser as a starter. Pulling 3 positive WAR above and beyond Houser and Chase is going to be a big task.
  8. TJseven7
    His minor league starters numbers were exactly where his MLB starter numbers were last year at almost every single level. He had 1 year where he was a great SP in the minors. To say that evidence means nothing at all is overstating it. Yes the sample size is small but something that clear cut should not be whimsically throw out. There's plenty of evidence that him being a 4.0 or below SP is outside his reach.
  9. TJseven7
    I think it has a lot to do with the new cap on International spending. Certain big market teams can't buy them all and restock their farm they traded away with draft picks they can buy. Also, I don't know what happened but I hope you got on the Hedbert train cuz that puppy is well out of the station.
  10. TJseven7
    Happens everywhere. Off season is business. In season is love. The nature of pro sports. GB has busted balls on contracts a million times over and guys go out and try to earn their pay raise. I mean how many people get passed over for a promotion and continue on in their same job trying to get the next opportunity. How many people get a raise they think is low and keep doing their job. The bitterness and spite angle of it is overstated.
  11. TJseven7
    They are going to have to be pretty good to accomplish 4 war in the innings they pitched. I think math failed you there.
  12. TJseven7
    What makes him the next best after Woodruff? Burned has 4-5 pitches, Peralta currently one. Both throw hard. Both have something to prove. Well if you count all of Burnes offerings then Peralta actually has 3 right now.
  13. TJseven7
    Yeah there was a lot of that, both with regards to issues with grip, and with it breaking differently. I don't know whether it applied more to hard slider, or affected those throwing slurves or more cutter-like sliders ("slutter" sounds wrong, however descriptive it may be...), but however prevalent it was it wasn't universal, some sliders were as good as ever. I haven't heard anything about whether the ball will be different again, I don't believe MLB have said anything about it. Whatever issues Burnes had, the slider wasn't one of them. So in his case, it might make sense to double down on it. Will just be interesting to see what pitch(es) will be used to work off it, mostly how to handle lefties. One way to illustrate the differences between facing lefties in righties is this; vs RHB Burnes had a 51 K to 3 BB (Probably fueled by that 58% swing-and-miss rate on that slider). Against LHB it was 19 K to 17 BB. Whatever the approach ends up being, I think Burnes is just too good of a pitcher to not bounce back and have at least a solid year. I even expect him to be among our best pitchers in 2020. Unfortunately the SL was the only good pitch he had last year. He threw it 30% of the time. 60% SL ratio is uncommon. Even Chacin was at 45-50%.
  14. TJseven7
    Plus another 5 mil in bonus incentives on Anderson and Lindblom right? Any other incentives?
  15. TJseven7
    Suter getting paid could be the good cop bad cop too. Hader winning his had a domino effect going forward. Had to dig in. As soon as they won that, why push Suter around. You saved 2.3 mil on Hader and avoided that total exploding every year of Arby by setting a low base number. Give 1.1 of it to Suter because his value is never going to set off a massive domino effect. Suter at 1.5 next year and 1.9 this year is no harm no foul. Buys out his Arby 1 and 2. Plus, if Suter keeps up his current production as a reliever (1.29 ERA, 0.966 WHIP), then it also could be a HUGE bargain in 2021, and after that, with two years of control, Suter could be a valuable trade piece. Even if he returns to the rotation at the pace he's put up over his career (4.28 ERA), he still could help pull off a Davies-type deal like we saw this past off-season. More on the lines with Anderson, but that's still 5 mil. Not 1.7.
  16. TJseven7
    It would depend on how the team trends. If a couple of key players are gone for the season, and replacements aren't doing well, then maybe you do punt the season and deal Hader. If the team is trending upwards... then the Crew will be buying, not selling, at the deadline. Maybe that .500 team has Rasmussen and Burnes pushing for a promotion in AAA at that time. If Knebel Phelps Suter Houser (Peralta) are pitching well and you got a few guys in the farm pitching at a high level you don't need to be all in or all out. Especially if the right offer comes along.
  17. TJseven7
    Suter getting paid could be the good cop bad cop too. Hader winning his had a domino effect going forward. Had to dig in. As soon as they won that, why push Suter around. You saved 2.3 mil on Hader and avoided that total exploding every year of Arby by setting a low base number. Give 1.1 of it to Suter because his value is never going to set off a massive domino effect. Suter at 1.5 next year and 1.9 this year is no harm no foul. Buys out his Arby 1 and 2.
  18. TJseven7
    I think everyone knows it's wrong. I think MKE put together the case that fit the current measuring stick. Elite reliever, only 37 saves. Matches Familia but not save dominated Papelbon. I think its a case of them knowing they were going to win while being wrong and that it's up to the CBA and MLBPU to fix it.
  19. TJseven7
    Ok so... https://www.brewcrewball.com/2020/2/13/21136741/brewers-spring-training-corbin-burnes-pitching-rotation-slider Question 1. Woodruff Anderson Lauer are assumed locks for the rotation. That leaves Lindblom Houser Peralta and Burnes who are all seen as starters. 7. Um, I can see Burnes starting off in AAA but who else is getting bumped? I expected a little clearer picture but the current stance of Houser and Peralta being seen as starters has me puzzled. Especially since they were quick to state Suter is a reliever. Question 2. Wasn't the ball a big issue for slider pitchers last year. I've read multiple reports that pitchers couldn't get a feel for their slider and that many slider dominant (hello Chacin) pitchers imploded last year. Is pushing Burnes to a more slider dominant mix a good idea? Do we have any knowledge of them fixing the ball after last years mess?
  20. TJseven7
    Agree about the unknowns about where the team is in 2022/2023. That said, Attanasio has opened the checkbook before. See the Cain signing. See Moose and Gandal. We just don't know where everyone's head and heart will be at that time. 80 mil over 5 for Cain in one thing. 320 mil over 8 for Yelich is quite another. Hader is great but MKE can't afford 15 mil AAV on any pen piece. I don't see 19/1 or 12/1 or 16/5 for a CF as close to the same thing.
  21. TJseven7
    Chad Bettis has stated he feels the best he has since he had cancer. Had off season hip surgery. He's had a rough 3 years.
  22. TJseven7
    I expect it to be a 2022 off season thing. Yelich netting a top 40 and 2 top 80 prospects. Hader netting something close to Miller's trade. Thing is we have no idea where this team will be in 2 years. Medina Perez Lutz could be walking their way up the top 100 board preparing to take over the OF. MKE has a lot of interesting pitchers and Kelly Rasmussen could be the new pen firemen. I'm not concerned about a rebuild tear down. We'll have to see what 2022 looks like. If they think going for it 1 more year and QOs will do, then so be it. If they get a number of guys then and bolster the farm, so be it. Only thing we know is that they won't be here once they hit FA. That's just the way it is.
  23. TJseven7
    Atlanta hates all sports but has embraced soccer? Their Falcons Hawks Thrashers Braves fans absolutely blow. But they embrace soccer? Do they win at soccer? MLB has to market their stars. People know NFL stars, people know NBA stars. I am certain the general public can't identify even top 10 baseball talent. All this change is stuff that won't fix anything.
  24. TJseven7
    It was misplaced optimism though. Last years rotation was a disaster waiting to happen, this years is much less risky. I think beliefs like this are being fueled by hindsight and hope.
  25. TJseven7
    That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies? If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble. I don't believe the 2nd line at all.
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