TJseven7

I'd have taken him back for 850k. We know what he can do. That's very cheap and the guy was always good for us. Honestly, its entirely possible last year was our fault. MKE basically tore his arm off in 2018. He was used a ton. April May of 2019 had solid results. June July August fell apart. That can happen when the guys coming off over an 80 inning season and isn't the kind of guy who should do that out of the pen. I think MKE used him 20 too many innings in the deep playoff run of 2018. I think its possible his 2019 was the aftershock. So for less than a mil I'd give him another shot.

Yeah that's the only way they get good value for him...but then it's still annoying that he had a monster year and opted out. Though it would have to be a truly monster year, because he very well knows a comp pick would be coming his way if he opted out...and we've seen what those do to a players value. Wouldn't be surprised if the PA wanted that wrote out of the rules in the new CBA. Teams who lose that player gain a pick, teams who sign them don't lose one.

At the end of 2018 Grisham was 19th in our system and no where near the top 100. Houser was 16th and no where near the top 100. Devin Williams wasn't listed. At the end of 2017 Peralta was our 9th rated prospect and no where near the top 100. At the end of 2016 Woodruff was our 25th rated prospect and no where near the top 100. Also heading into 2016. Brinson was 14th, Diaz was 97th, Harrison was our 16th best prospect and Yamamoto wasn't listed. By the end of 2017 they were worth Yelich. This system has a way of vaulting someone from off the radar to top 100 in half a year. Then a half a year after that they are graduated. The track record of that looks pretty sustainable. The guys doing the rankings on the other hand look very, well, uninformed. I don't blame them. MiLB is a beast to cover and getting film on the minors must be a complete chore. That doesn't excuse the fact that their rankings aren't worth jack. Their rankings are simply the best options in a sea of guesses. Guys suck at ranking college football draftees and they are going to play in the NFL the next fall. Film of them is everywhere to be found.

I'd rather pay 10 mil for a RF/LF who can OPS over 800 than 16 mil for a DH who can OPS over 850. The comp pick part of this is the only impressive part for the Reds. If they can get him to opt out after a 16/1 and then get a comp pick for him leaving, that's some savvy stuff right there.

Yes he did, about 30 IP. They must have something there that's intriguing enough for both sides to bring him back. Yup and results weren't pretty but he might like SA and depth is depth. I'm not optimistic about him but it's a body.

Price is overpaid by at least 36 million. Betts is on a 1 year deal. Why would anyone eat a 3 year overpaid contract to get an expiring. The Price deal hurts your chances of keeping Betts from the jump. I mean really who can take on 59 million dollars this year and line up a long term extension for Betts while having 32 mil a year on Price. Boston basically saying let them eat cake. Betts is worth about 8-13 million dollars of value on his 1 year 27 mil deal. Price isn't worth 20 mil per over 3 years. So you are negative 19-26 in value and they need 2 top prospects? Boston should deal Betts and Price for nothing, then just sign Betts back next year. Effectively dumping Prices 32/3 for a rental. I hate this big market way of thinking and I hope every other team tells them to stick it.

Peralta is the most interesting currently. His winter league numbers are absurd and word has it that he's added a SL and his CB seems improved. 3 pitch Peralta (if the slider is even MLB average) could start. Burnes needs to be seen as a starter. That doesn't mean he flips the switch and regains his form.

I'm certainly going to be watching his pitch count per AB in Wisconsin. Maybe he's just hitting the first strike he gets but if he's keeping ABs alive by fouling off balls or costing himself outs by softly putting bad pitches in play, then I won't get too excited about him. His GBOs are on the bad side of average. His speed, contact skills and rumored defense in CF makes him a pretty hard type to wash out. However, controlling the strike zone is the difference between being a 5th OF and being a lead-off man. I'd also like to see him up his SB/CS percentages. Right now he's a fast kid who can't steal bases.

I do not see more darts in 2020 vs 2019. I think 2018 had by far the most darts of the trio and that's the level of darts I'm hoping they find a way to get back to having. The opening rotation is likely to look something like Woodruff, Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Houser in some order. Beyond that, we have Peralta, Suter, Burnes, and Supak on the 40 man roster...and Brown/Rasmussen as 10th and 11th starting options if we have a big problem. The first 5 are all relatively safe bets to be mediocre or better(OK Anderson can at best be mediocre)...Burnes/Peralta have the massive upside to potentially steal a starting roll if either is awesome in ST while Suter is a pretty safe bet to be solid if he's needed to start. I think the rotation is in a much better place than many seem to think. And responding to another poster, if 4 of the top 8 options end up failing or getting hurt in the first month or two...we'll be roughly where we were in 2019. Needing the offense to carry us big time. I wouldn't necessarily say the season is over by any stretch. Woodruff Anderson very injury prone Lauer Lindblom completely unknown at the MLB level Houser likely better as an RP but we'll see, he did well when they threw him into the starters role out of necessity. Peralta 1 of 3 key pieces in the pen Suter 1 of 3 key pieces in the pen Burnes was shelled Supak was shelled at AAA Brown was shelled at AAA Rasmussen didn't top 50 pitches last year and threw 75 innings last year You are 1 mistake/injury from having 2 guys in the pen. You are 2 mistakes/injuries from having a pen of Hader and the 4As. Last year they started 3 kids and had Anderson in the pen. This year they are starting 2 unknowns and a big injury risk with have 2 "options" in the pen who they need in the pen because after Hader Peralta and Suter you are looking to CLAUDIO. Throwing kids into the fire and seeing what happens is not what you do when you plan to contend for the playoffs. That same principle almost cost MKE their season last year. Gio Lyles saved it. I hope Woodruff improves off last year. I hope Anderson stays healthy. I hope Lauer is the numbers outside of Colorado. I hope Lindblom is at the very least a 4.0 ERA work horse. I hope Houser takes the next step. They all pitch every single start. But that won't all happen. When it doesn't, we are horribly unprepared in 2020 because to fix it, you have to kill the pen just like last year. 2021 it should be more clear, late in 2020 there might be a bit of help on the way. 2020, this is too thin.

That's moving the ball sir. Woodruff is more proven than Woodruff was last year but 2020 Woodruff is far less proven than Chacin was entering 2019. Davies might have been less proven than Anderson but he's also proven to be a lot healthier than Anderson. Anderson has hit 100 ip 2 times since 2010. Houser entering 2020 is about as proven as Woodruff was in 2019. There no way that Lauer entering 2020 is more proven than Chase was entering 2019. Lindblom over Burnes. Sure. However he's started 6 whole games in the MLB. Zero since 2014. KBO isn't MLB. I'm hopeful but nothing about him is proven. He was even given a split deal in case he can't stick as a starter. Peralta vs Peralta is zero change. That's not more proven. You can't omit Davies and Chase and compare Lindblom and Lauer the two least proven members of the 2019 staff. This staff is volatile as all get out. That's fine if its deep but it's not deep. If you want to count Suter as the 7th fine but then the pen is Hader and the 4As. I've liked the additions but always assumed more options were on the way through FA. The markets drying up and we are finding out more information on interesting names who are dealing with lingering injuries. It really seems like the off season has come awfully close to its conclusion. This pitching staff isn't deep enough to be this group of guys. I could see July call promotions and the trade deadline helping but this early season is going to be awfully murky if anything goes wrong. Usually something goes wrong.

Because 3 of Yardley Feyereisen Black Devin Wahl etc is better? If Knebel can't start the season this teams currently looking at Hader Suter Peralta Claudio and 4 shuttle guys.

I get it to a degree but it's really hard for me to get excited about a guy who has 13 walks in 410 AB. Yes, he's putting his bat on everything but swinging at trash is still swinging at trash even if you hit it. It's not going to go for a hit or at the least it's not as likely. Unless his average AB is a crazy 2 pitches or something and he's hitting a ball that's a strike before they can possibly throw 4 balls, I have my concerns. 327/356 is quite the low split for a guy who is about speed, not power. If he was 327/400 now we are dreaming on him and looking into his defense.

Davies Chacin Woodruff Anderson Burnes Peralta Woodruff Anderson Houser Lindblom Lauer Peralta I'm not sure how this group is more proven. To go a step further, MKE at this time in 2019 had Knebel and Jeffress who were pretty proven. Until both imploded for different reason. Having Suter back doesn't offset the lack of Jeffress and the unknowns around Knebel.

I do not see more darts in 2020 vs 2019. I think 2018 had by far the most darts of the trio and that's the level of darts I'm hoping they find a way to get back to having.

It's absolutely incredible how many ELITE athletes they have gathered in the OF. They have 6 guys who are capable of being stars if their contact rate elevates or in the case of CRod patience elevates. That's just top 20. There are more further down the list. All of these guys could amount to absolutely nothing but Harrison and Grisham took the same profile and exploded into being highly regarded. Very interesting group and I think this is the first time outside of Clancy that Hummel has hit a top 20.

Well since MKE only has 6 options to start Woodruff Anderson Lauer Lindblom Houser and Peralta (if the CB SL winter league stuff carries forward) In that circumstance Houser has to start. If he's a 4.5 guy, then that's not ideal but that's the lack of depth MKE is dealing with in the pitching department. I'm hopeful the farm can contribute guys to make that less of an issue in 2021-2023 and beyond but right now it doesn't seem there is a real choice. This is why I've pushed the idea of adding more SP options, or at the very least, making a number of additions to the pen. Both starters and pen get real thin if a starter or two don't work out, or get hurt. You pull Houser Peralta into the rotation and the pen is basically Suter Hader and stuff. At this point, I'm hopeful MKE makes a trade for a starter. Nothing ACE level but a controlled 100 ERA+ guy would make for a lot more breathing room. I don't fault the Anderson for Anderson swap. I don't fault the Davies for Lauer swap. That was a move to trade and replace cheaper or to add control. Those are fine. However, Anderson and Lindblom is only a nice start to the pitching additions. Having another Chase or Davies would help a great deal. Team simply needs more depth to get through 2020 until (hopefully) more reinforcements come out of the farm. A lot of guys have been very preoccupied about the piecey part additions to the offense. I think the pitching staff is the area that is most troubling. Not because they haven't done well, but because they haven't added more bodies.

It feels like the premise of this thread is kind of a "no duh." Guys who were 20-22 have fallen off dramatically at 34-36? Doesn't that just point to how poor the probabilities are on older players? Lots of these guys put up massive early careers only to hit 30 and fade towards their careers end. Makes you wonder why MKE doesn't invest big money long term on older guys. Almost everyone here knows Braun is overpaid. Cain despite being a GG CF had an offensive year that made him overpaid in year 2 of his deal. Explains the whole, Moose 1 year Grandal 1 year Garcia 2 year stuff we see regularly, doesn't it. Abort at 30. Only offer 1 year deals after 30 unless they have a trait that is highly valuable that doesn't degrade with age. (Cain's insane instincts in CF)

For what its worth. Last year was his best year in ages. He started throwing a sinking FB 10x as much as he had in any of the past 5 years. His CH is a good pitch which he threw more often than any year except 2015. Sinker Change guy? Scrap the slider and standard FB? It's very meh but he did recently change his FB and has 1 high quality pitch.

What is your reasoning that Houser is better suited for a pen role vs a rotation role? The results have pointed to that all along. He was a 4.57 ERA guy as a starter. A 1.47 guy as a RP. His Minor stats in extended starts haven't been overly impressive either. I hope he improves as a starter but I thought his addition to the pen last year helped MKE a great deal and then the pitching staff struggled a bit when he was removed from the pen and put into the rotation. I think ideally he'd pitch in the pen.

I think the infield depth has a lot to do with how they draft. They grab a number of 2b SS options and Cs. They don't seem to value 1b or 3b at all via the draft and I think that shows up in our farm. I don't exactly disagree. With 26 guys you can platoon 1b and 3b into a good player. If you can nab a 2b SS C then you have something of immense value. Then it is lots of OFs who are elite athletes who can't play baseball yet, or have contact issues. But we just saw what happens with those guys when they figure it out. Grisham flew up the ranks. Lutz could do the same any year. Ward is horribly unlikely but another stud athlete. Bello Gray Medina etc. Also our DSL has been insanely weak for years. These kids are 16. MKE just started getting truly active on the front 3 years ago. It'll take another 2 for that to start actually paying off. Then they draft pitchers completely different. A lot of middle of the rotation or pen piece upside age advanced arms. I think that's where the value is in the farm and I think that's underrated by the people who rank systems. When guys like Lyles Bailey Gausman Hill Miley Porcello (and Martin Perez) are getting 6-10 mil a year to be mediocre MKE is trying to develop guys who can put up 4 ERA years. They had Davies Chase who have been traded in and done just that. Hopefully Lauer is the next. However, Woodruff is already paying off huge. Burnes could be next. Then you can list a good 10 arms who have legitimate 3-4-5 or elite pen potential in the system. Even without touching Clancy's guys. Woodruff Lauer Houser Lindblom Peralta Hader Suter are controlled for at least 3 years. That leaves 6 spots. I think this farm can start rolling out 2 guys a year into roles where they can not only be guys on the MLB roster but be arms MKE wants on the MLB roster. Burnes, Rasmussen, Brown, Small, Ashby, Kelly, Supak, File, Francis, Zavalos, Bennett, Lazar, Jarvis. Something's got to shake out of that group. I don't remember the MKE system ever being this deep at pitcher. It's not top heavy. It's very very middle heavy. That seems to have been the case ever since DS got here. Trading in Hader Houser Peralta has paid off but there was a lot of depth in those years and it seems to get better every single year. Woodruff has paid off dramatically. Can Houser/Peralta and Lauer make that 3 in the MLB. Can Burnes or File make that 4 this year? Can Ashby Small etc make it 5 before we lose anyone we have on 3 years of control? That's what is most interesting about this farm. Batting, which athlete has the light switch go on. Pitching, number after number of guys who, hopefully, can consistently send 2 to the MLB year in and year out. Which 2? You'll need a crystal ball for that but I think the MKE system isn't very strong 1-15 but I think 15 is equal to 35 and they don't get any credit for that. They should because we've seen a number of guys go from 15-20 in the rankings to top 5 and top 100 in the MLB in under 2 full years. For a few years MKE had guys like Brinson and Ray at the top or near the top of their farm. They were pieces who lift the ranking of your farm. What have they done? As a number of guys who were in the 15-20 range blew past them and produced in the MLB.

AmFam Field just opens up the possibility for it to be "AmFam Field at Miller Park." We've all seen a sponsor on the Stadium/Arena and a separate on the Field/Floor. Marketing!

His last extension acquired the money he needed to be set for life. The only reason to sign a new contract is for top or near top dollar on the FA market. You don't do 2 sweetheart extensions after the 1st one cost you a lot of money in the long run. Guys going to get paid insanely well. Congrats to him for that, he deserves it. The pieces that were traded for him are very unlikely to amount to the value 5 years of him was worth. That's over the entire life of their controlled MLB careers, combined.

They were adverse to go to Devin. They went to Jay Jackson before they'd go to Devin. I see the depth of youth. They need to be in AAA proving they are the best of that group and moving up when injury or implosion arises. Devin didn't pitch much but he also wasn't very good. I'm not concerned about Hader Knebel Suter Peralta/Houser in the pen. That's the back bone of the pen. It's putting Black and 2 of the youth into the pen immediately and needing a number of those young options to pitch well that bothers me. Everyone they threw at the pen worked in 2018. Everyone they called up into the pen in 2019 flopped except for Houser and an already established Suter down the stretch. As for Burnes, I'm not writing him off at all. I'm putting him in AAA until he can start because that's what MKE needs from him. He has the stuff and pitch mix to do it. They need him to pan out there. You don't take a guy with his profile and toss him into the pen before you know he can not start. If you are talking about pushing Rasmussen into the pen early this year, you are rushing him. I said earlier, I think late 2020 and into 2021 the farm has a chance of graduating a few good pieces into the pen and rotation. I don't want 3 guys like Black who could trigger a 3 man shuttle of guys coming up to see if they can hang in the MLB by May. That's risking a lot of bad innings.

They can buy some stop gap types on the cheap until the farm forces them out of the job. As it stacks up currently. Woodruff Anderson Lindblom Lauer Houser/Peralta is starting. Knebel Hader Houser/Peralta Suter are the 1st 4 in the pen. That leaves Claudio and I guess Black. Both of those feel like 7 8 guys in the pen. Who is 5-6 and who is 4 if/when a starter gets hurt? At minimum they need 2 pen arms who can be trusted to some degree.

Was there a bidding war over Pom at the trade deadline? He was a bad starter. He turned into a 9 mil reliever. Someone's going to buy low. Also, why did Houston bother starting him? Everyone knows that doesn't work by now. High leverage numbers? Pretty much a fluke. (as those are numbers from 91 AB) Those aren't his career numbers. Please do not use small sample size numbers to prove your point. His leverage numbers over his career are greatly effected by his terrible 4th through 6th inning work as a starter. When you put a guy in position to fail and then put him into leverage spots it's not surprising he fails. If you are still concerned, can we add him and not make him the closer? I surely wouldn't mind a low 3s pen arm who pitches when Peralta Suter Hader Knebel aren't available or needed.