TJseven7

If that's the case then LAD was completely ripping off LAA. They were winning the value of the trade despite the cash dump they worked in.

I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year. Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now. This. Last year they had Chacin Davies and Anderson to anchor this rotation. Chacin coming off a great year and 2 guys who had done good work for years. Now its Woodruff and um hmm. Anderson is more injury prone than any of the top 3 last year. Lindblom is completely unknown compared to the top 3 of last year. Lauer simply hasn't been as good as the top 3 of last year. Also last year there was a lot of hope in Woodruff Burnes and Peralta. 2 out of 3 were bad and that tarnished them a lot. Is there the same hope in Lauer Lindblom and Houser? Woodruff then is Houser now. Does not mean results be the same. Lindblom is no more of a sure thing than Burnes or Peralta were. Lauer is a safer bet I'll admit. I think the established 3 of Chacin Davies Anderson beats the "established" 3 of Woodruff Lauer Anderson due to results and health. I think the bottom 3 of Burnes Woodruff Peralta was no less certain than the bottom 3 of Lindblom Houser and Peralta. As for my list of 3 pitchers and confusing you. Woodruff Stripling Anderson Lauer Lindblom Leaves Houser as next man up in the pen. (I also like Hader Houser Peralta Suter Cashner as 2 IP options, Phelps Knebel Black as 1s) Bettis as 1st SP out of AAA Cashner at reliever seems very promising to me and there are 2 spots where the guy we'll go with should and could start in AAA. I want the stashed Miley in the minors. (Bettis) I want the Pom before people realize he's Pom. (Cashner) So we don't have to trade for them or suck for 2-3 months until we get them. I really don't care about Freitas TWilliams RRodriguez and Yardley. 2 are 4A. 2 are mediocre low ceiling cast offs and 1 of those cast offs is redundant in our system. The magic of this model is in its depth. BE AS DEEP AS POSSIBLE!

If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate. I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.

As everyone is saying, no. However, we do actually know Joc and Stripling are on the block. That's plenty to know and I really hope MKE is involved. Stripling would be a heck of a get for our questionable rotation. Even if Anderson and Stripling can split a season and hit their usual numbers. That would be the 2 we are looking for. Takes a lot of pressure off Lauer Lindblom and Houser.

He's also been stellar defensively in LF. 1200 innings the last 2 years. Stellar. The only OF MKE has who grades higher than Joc in LF is Cain in CF. Could be a bench bat and defensive replacement in LF. Or a guy who you slide from CF to LF on a Cain early game rest day vs a RHP.

One could play a passable 1b and a passable RF. One is good in LF (I mean our best defensive LF good, by far, including the prior LF GG), passable in RF and sufferable at CF and 1b. I'd say the 2 added fielding spots makes him worth being an expensive Thames. I don't want us to trade for him. I want us to get something for taking him. Like a discount on Stripling or a lottery ticket tossed in. I mean if Thames could spell Cain without getting embarrassed, that makes Thames an entirely different player. The other question though... why did LAA back out. Who is hurt?

Despite the solid showing at the majors the guy LAD got from the Angels was never really highly regarded. He did well but he wasn't fawned over by "scouts." Eduardo Garcia probably gets it pretty close depending on who ranks him. Carlos Rodriguez seems to be the guy who is rated equal to him throughout. It's really hard to rate our system because MKE has a lot of guys with a lot of upside who are a long way away and places have them all over the map in the MKE farm rankings.

If we get on the load management train this looks pretty sharp. Since CC thinks all 13 bats are starters this could help him actually play guys who should start. Joc would be a lot of Cain Braun Smoak insurance.

With our RHP clubbers being Yelich Hiura and Smoak, I think 1 more guy like Joc fits in pretty well.

We don't exactly know what LAD was all getting but they are looking for roster space and cap space Joc and Stripling are both very interesting to me. Joc/Gamel 4th OF platoon works well. Stripling would be a fantastic option to add into the bottom group of our potential starters.

Not sure MKE will get Stripling and Pederson without putting up a Rengifo of our own. I'd guess Pederson for nothing is a possibility though. His contract for an OF who kills RHP would be fine by me. Makes the bench of Pederson Gamel real solid. Probably unnecessary but if MKE can get a lottery ticket for the cap dump they should be happy to oblige.

I think putting Verdugo at 3 WAR per over the next 5 is very fair. He only played about 100 games. Sub 400 AB and was a 2.2 WAR according to Fgraphs. 3 War is worth about 90 in my book and the 2 years then a 6-8-10 arby puts him at 65 in value. I grade Price harsher than you by a bit but even then. The profit of the deal for Boston was the ENTIRE value of Verdugo. They could have went Price Betts cash for Verdugo straight up and won the deal. Getting 2 prospects thrown in was just icing.

I don't think anyone is arguing that he would actually accept a four year offer. But that's probably the only offer that makes theoretical sense for the Brewers. Anything beyond age 35 at $30M-$35M (or more) for an aging player is most likely not going to bring a good enough return on the investment. Especially if he's extended out to late thirties. There's always going to be cheaper alternatives by that point of a player's career. Granted, the NL could adopt the DH rule. And Yelich could certainly put up numbers akin to David Ortiz who in his late thirties was absolutely killing it all the way to age 40. But he is a major exception to the rule. Again, some ball clubs can take that gamble. If the contract pays off, great. And if not, it won't decimate the future of the team. The Brewers don't happen to fall into that category. DS stated he wants to be competitive every year. And for a club like the Brewers, that can only really happen if they avoid the 7 year/$250M extensions to a 31 year old. The false security of "well we can always play him at DH" is an awful way to approach the DH position. You want to home grow Santana types into that. You always want DH to be a prospect who fell off the Defensive scale at LF or 1b.

Why would Yelich sign a 30 mil 4 year deal when he's 3 years from 40 mil per and 8 years? You can dream but to lock into 2 horrible deals for him back to back would take a special kind of dim on his agents part. He'll hit FA with 1 shot to hit all the money. Betts and Yelich aren't going to give that up. You'd basically have to tear up 2 years 29 mil and offer him 40/7 in its place to have a shot. You'd have to roughly hit 50 mil per on the extension to shorten the deal by 2 years. 50 x 5 = 250 (paid as 40/7 which pays him to 36 years old) 40 x 6 = 240 40 x 7 = 280 (Rendon 1 year younger 35/7) This is the type of deal he'd be gunning for and with reports that the Brewers aren't looking to sign long term deals beyond the CBA that idea is all but moot.

Ok so you are projecting him zero rest and zero injuries in the next 2 years. I see how you inflated that. That's clever and unrealistic. Betts played 286 games the last 2 years. Yelich played 9 less. He played 136 in his 10.4 WAR year. Now that's a fun projection. Go on, inflate him too. Spoiler, no he didn't hit 13 WAR. Just 12.3.

I'm not down on the team. I'm annoyed they haven't built in the veteran depth they should be adding in to make sure this can't go off the rails due to filler pieces blowing up. You know, the bad start of last year. Chacin Burnes Peralta Jeffress losing Knebel. When this team floundered and sputtered until they stabilized at the deadline. AKA the reason STL was able to hold MKE off. It's not going to be an easy go this year. You can't afford to lose due to being caught short. As you said they have a ton of talent and they can't waste a year like this over something foolish like assuming you can just turn to the farm if bad things happen. You can't let that be an anchor that drags your season down. It won't cost jack to fortify that better and they haven't done it.

First off you can quit it with this tagline garbage. You need to stop talking down at me when your numbers are off. Second off surplus value is value above contract cost. He makes 15 mil his last year. 12.5, 14 and 15. Even if you call him an 8 war (which he hasn't done) player and place 9 mil per WAR due to him being an elite talent. That's 3 years of 216 mil, 2 years 144, 1 of 72. Surplus of 175, 115 and 57. And no ones talking about him before that surplus value gets to 57 (which is 49 by the law of fgraph) Those values all drop if you don't go beyond the 8 Fgraph assigns per WAR. Joseph (and I) prescribe to 9 per WAR on elite players. We disagree on lower level WAR but agree on the top. They drop to 151, 99 and 49 So I'm not sure where your values come from. Add to that Price by Fgraph standards is a 2 WAR pitcher over the last 3 years. The last 2 he's been 2.35 WAR. They say that 2 WAR is worth 16 mil. Oddly enough that's exactly what he's paid by LAD over the next 3. I see a big negative value on him. I see the Dodgers still eating at least 20 mil in bad cap on that deal. They might not. Fgraph does not see it being that large. So Verdugo and Gasterol for Yelich's 2022 season isn't far off. That at the deadline is.

I think people need to, well, come to grips with the fact that this team isn't going to be run like most teams are in this league. Not as long as they are mid market. Not as long as DS is here. It's amazing to have Yelich on this team. I mean the MVP level he exploded to after that deal is amazing. But imagine if MKE could deal Brinson Harrison Diaz Yamamoto. Use Yelich for 4 years. 43.25 million dollars and an estimated +220 mil in surplus value. And trade Yelich for Brinson and Harrison level guys while dumping the 18mil 5th year of Cain on a team. You'd be 4 years of Yelich for Diaz in the end. That would be one of the best trades in history. Or we can pay him 1/3rd of our payroll. That's not possible and after the 1st 4 years the next 4 could plunge this team into darkness for multiple years. I think the Betts deal just showed us the future of Yelich.

Maybe if we agree now we can drop it until the 2022 off season.

Even Cain only got 80 mil. Yelich is looking at what 320 over 8? Cain's defensive value, being an up the middle player, really appeals to DS. He was worth roughly 40 mil (so would say 46) his 1st year. Even in year 2 where his offense fell off a cliff he was still worth 7.5 mil (some would say 12) and won a GG. If his offense rebounds at all it's not hard to see him blowing past that 80 mil contract. If his offense stays in the tank his defense is worth money and CF is a tough position. Yelich in RF is not a high level defensive concern. He's not adding to his value (much) there. Cain makes a lot more sense to DS than Yelich on a long term deal.

Right, but if you eat a larger chunk of Price. That falls foward for 3 years as well. Eovaldi is a player they are stuck on. They were about to be 3rd time offenders. That's a 50% hit on everything over the tax line. Which was basically Betts prior to the trade. That's 10-13 mil thrown away. The problem is worse in 2021. Save 20 on Panda and Castillo Lose Bradley (do you want to do that?) Saved 31 Betts goes up 8 to 13 mil. Erob arby 4 goes up 2-3 mil. Beni arby 2 goes up 2 mil. That doesn't leave a lot of room for anything else. So they were set to be up against the 210mil line and cap frozen (see cubs) as 3rd time offenders. They could afford to keep Betts, but then they are stuck unless they want to pay 50% on top of every dollar spent. By resetting, they get off of all of Eov Pedroia and Price before they hit 50% again. They can go to 230 mil next year and only pay 4mil in lux tax. They could land Betts and a front of the rotation arm next year and only pay 4 mil in lux tax. Opposed to the 10 mil they were going to pay this year. Basically keeping Betts next year as a 3rd time offender froze their spending after that. Now they can go get 2 stars in 2021 and didn't burn 10-13 mil this off season for nothing. Truly this puts them in BETTER position to sign Betts next year than they previously were in. Frankly, this move just landed Boston Betts and Stroman. Betts is going to the highest bidder. Boston absolutely can be that team and it's easier after the trade than before.

They underpaid a lot of run of the mill MLB players. All these guys are 1 WAR players. AAAA guys are lucky to be 0.

And my point is that bad things happen and when you aren't prepared for them you need a special September or your season is done. We can't afford to waste years where we have a cost controlled superstar. 3 games could have changed 2019 dramatically. They blew those games before the trade deadline. Why? Because bad things happened.

Nope....... Surprising. At the same time, the guy the Phillies are DFA'ing to make room for Guerra, J.D. Hammer, looks really intriguing. https://thatballsouttahere.com/2019/05/25/phillies-call-pitching-prospect-j-d-hammer/ I kinda, sorta want him to end up a Brewer. Thought the same thing. I went, wait you added Guerra and DFA'd a 25 year old power arm with options remaining. A guy who worked quickly up to AA then got pushed into AAA and MLB too fast. He wasn't even bad in the MLB and they rushed him. I'd claim him in a heartbeat. Bye Taylor Williams. We got a younger you.

This is crazy and I have Price valued even worse. Boston gives up 23.1 mil in value. They get 94.4 mil in value. People hate it for Boston? As stated, that value for the 5th year of Yelich (add another prospect for MKE to offset the Price cap eat part of the deal) is about what they gave up for all 5 years of Yelich. MKE gets over 100 mil of surplus value for 1 year of Yelich which is +48 mil? An offer like this will make that 5th year hard to hold onto.