TJseven7

Just google Josh Donaldson WAR 2021. Fangraphs has it right at the top. There is no cap. Then what stops MKE from spending like the Cubs? They have a budget. It's the same thing. If this is the budget then that's the budget. I don't think they max their budget unless they are buying value. No one projects Donaldson as a value. Even if you want to give 1 war per 8 mil. When you do the math there's more value in Sogard Gyroko in 2020 than all of Donaldson's contract. Also if you use 8 mil per WAR and ZIPs projections. Sogard Gyorko have as much projected value at 3b in 2020 as Donaldson has in 2020-2022. That's before the bad deal they project this to be in 2023 and the 8 mil opt out dead money in 2024. I believe MKE wants to keep a bullet in the chamber and at least 1 in the mag. I believe they fired to empty in 2019 with Grandal and Moose. Those guys were value contracts that had no long term risk. Blue moon type deals. I don't see them being a team that signs a deal saying, well this one is good, the next is fair, the 3rd is rocky and we'll eat the 4th. MKE can't afford that. Before you point at Cain, I don't think anyone saw his OBP falling below 330 and despite the struggles at the plate he was a GG CF. GG CF appears to be one position where MKE highly values defense.

Disagreeing on methods and strategies is fine. Your condensation and sarcasm is really over the top and not needed. I've been on record many times defending DS against attacks from people who say he doesn't do enough, and I've said we need to pick and choose our spots, you saying I'll just ask to spend more money again in 2021 is projecting a posting style onto me that isn't mine. You portraying me as a "just throw money at the problem" poster shows you haven't really payed any attention to the things I've posted this offseason at all. Also, you have zero evidence that Donaldson becomes a negative value player in 2021, it is nothing more than your opinion and should not be stated as anything more than that. If I improperly characterized you then I am mistaken. That is the stance you are taking on this one though. They just need to spend more. You refuse to offset the extra spending. You just want 15.5 more on the cap. Don't act like it's just my opinion. I'm quoting ZIPS. I'll take their system over your opinion. They have him estimated at 2.9 WAR in 2021. I don't go by 1 WAR = 8 mil belief because if that was true MKE's 1.8 WAR projected out of the 6.5 mil spent on Sogard/Gyorko is a 7.9 million dollar value. That's only the WAR they accumulate as their portion of 3b platoon, so it's to be assumed they are worth even more than that. I'll take 1.8 WAR at a value over 3.8 war at cost then 2.9 war from a negative contract then 2.1 WAR on an ever growing worse contract on top of Cains 18 million dollar contract as a 36 year old. To me that looks like a great way to blow up the last year Yelich is in our system at a huge value and trigger a fire sale rebuild in 2022 instead of a 3rd year of very uncommon window of opportunity.

Garcia can also play a defensive position other than DH.

Again it's super cool that you look at the surface numbers and use that to discredit my thoughts. How about these numbers for Aaron Sanchez. 2018 1st 2nd 3rd innings ERA 2.95. 1st inning ERA 3.15. 2019 1st inning ERA 2.33. 1st 2nd innings ERA 3.66. Career 1st inning ERA 2.62 Career 1st and 2nd inning ERA 3.46. Career ERA as a RP 1.67. I think he looks pretty good 1 time through. Looks like a guy with nasty stuff who doesn't know how to pitch. That's a reliever. Also his FB as a reliever was 97. It was 95 as a starter. Maybe I did my research before I spoke up. Cashner as a reliever last year 3.86. K/9 went up. Whip went down. Eliminating the CB from his arsenal would help him. FB CH SL would work well in the pen. That's also good cuz he cut out his cutter and sinker last year because they weren't working. He's now a 3 pitch guy because those work. If anyone wanted to pay Cashner go right ahead but he's been kicked around the league like a can and there's value in guys who have talent who look like they are just about to fall through the cracks of FA. If we can't nab him for 2 mil or under (you know a cheaper Guerra) I don't want him.

So your idea of a better off season is 15.5 mil more spending and a long term commitment on an old guy who ZIPS says gives us 2 more whole wins in 2020. A guy who becomes a negative value contract in 2021. I'll take DS path over yours. Can't wait to see your 2021 idea where we, well just spend more money AGAIN. Soon we'll have a team stuck at 140 mil that isn't any good.

MKE has spent over 21 million this year. You want to remove Gyorko Sogard Gacia Smoak and Lindblom for Donaldson? You can't point towards the gain the team makes because you spent more. What credit does the team get for not spending that 8.75mil. That they can still use at any time? We good with 1 war. If so read above. PS this 6 war guy. Fangraphs 2015 8.7 2016 7.6 2017 5.1 skip 2019 4.9 ZIPs has 2020 at 3.8

Again, you aren't answering the question. Donaldson Gamel/Taylor vs Sogard/Gyorko Garcia You need to save 6.75 to 8.75 million because that's roughly 1 WAR right? I just get to add 1 WAR to my side, fair? Ok have you heard of ZIPS. Do you think they have a pretty decent handle on what they are doing? Donaldson 3.8 WAR Sogard/Gyorko 1.8 WAR Garcia over Gamel/Taylor is another .7 WAR I get 1 WAR for my 6.75 to 8.75 mil because that's fair. That means Donaldson makes the team .3 wins better. Is locking yourself into a 23/4 contract on an old player worth a .3 win bump to the NOW? Turborickey doesn't want hopes and prayers. But then the guy defending his case, brewcrewdue80, is talking about an OF that heavily plays Gamel Taylor or maybe even Broxton or Ray. Turbokickey, you want to root for a different team with a different payroll because the way to get those needle movers is to play "hopes and prayers" in spots that you can then refer to as dead spots. You simply can't buy known all around the diamond on this payroll. What you can do is buy multiples of unknown pieces who point towards new normal and rebound years based on our FOs metrics in the attempt to steal some value. If you don't do that. Sure you can pay Donaldson. But Gamel Taylor are playing all the bench ABs in the OF and all of what Garcia will play. You are replacing Smoak with a WW guy. You are replacing Lindblom with Burnes (hope and pray) or a WW guy. That's the reality of this.

So we trade Hader for a headliner that profiles similar to the 1b we just added for 5 million dollars. Not a lot of value in that.

All things equal. I want them to spend more is not a fair option. Every team should get better if they spend more. You can't possibly know what they will bring in with the money they don't spend now. You don't know what spending more now will prevent them from being able to bring in later. That opens up a pandora's box that I could fill with whatever value I can dream up for the difference. So we go back to all things equal. Also the clear Braun stuff. Yelich Cain Garcia Hader Narvaez Suter go up. Lauer and Woodruff hit arby 1 next year. I'd expect them to want to keep those pieces together without blowing the payroll through the roof. Those increases take care of the vast majority of Braun. Other than Arcia I don't see many players you can replace for less. You need one of the farm arms to replace Anderson to tread water on the staff cost.

You're still not answering the question though. So basically you want Donaldson 21 (not counting the 8 mil opt out on Donaldson) Gamel/Taylor .5 (taylor on the roster) vs Sogard/Gyroko 6.5 (counting the opt out of Gyroko) Garcia 8.25 (counting 1/2 the opt out of Garcia) Good start. Cut 6.75 mil more please. Also you'll notice I didn't say anything about injuries. I'm also not including 2 mil of the 8 mil Donaldson has deferred into year 5 which basically makes him 23 per. If you truly want to be fair cut 8.75 more please.

I couldn't disagree more. Yelich at his contract is the only way MKE can hold their payroll and contend. You lose him and you need Hiura and Urias to be incredible players and have the next Hiura Urias behind them. Maybe they can do that. Maybe they have the next Hader in Rasmussen and Lutz/someone can come out of the farm and make up the value but that's a lot of value to make up. You can always replace players, in any sport, including Rodgers in the NFL but you have to operate on an incredibly high level to replace value. When Yelich hits FA that's a huge blow to this franchise's chances. Even if they are able to resign him. If you want a cross sport reference. Yelich is our Mahomes. Insane value, elite elite talent. That is pretty rare. KC will take a considerable hit by simply having to pay him what he's worth. Mahomes is a 30 million dollar value in a sport where the cap is over 190 million. Yelich is a 25-30 million dollar value on a team that caps out at 120-125 mil payroll. It's mythic level value. He alone is a huge reason MKE has been to the playoffs in back to back years. When we lose this 35-40 million dollar player at 12.5 to 15 million dollars of cost, you got a lot of value to make up. A lot.

Ryu or Donaldson doesn't stop us from making those moves too. I don't buy that. Isn't that....also kind of what we've been the last few years? Stars and scrubs? Doesn't stop us from making those moves but increases the payroll by 15-17 million in the case of Ryu or 15.5 in the case of Donaldson. "I wanted them to spend more" isn't essentially a reality or without future ramifications. Stars and the least expensive player who can do their job in most cases. Aka best value. I don't see value adds/prospecting and scrubs/garbage in the same light.

Astros went from a team that went from striking out the most in the league or close to it, to striking out the absolute least the last few seasons. And that change basically happened overnight. I know they made personnel changes along the way, but it’s something I am going to keep a close eye on. They had an off season a few years ago where they carved out Ks like they were carbs in the atkins craze. I wouldn't expect that cheating made zero impact but the roster took a hard left in its formation and I'd expect that had a bigger part in the K rate.

And Ryu would cost us Anderson Lindblom Garcia and Smoak all while missing 10 starts a year on average. I really don't get whey everyone wants to be the Angels. A couple superstars and then garbage.

Except they signed Sogard 4.5 Gyorko 2 Smoak 4.5 Garcia 8.25 and Lindblom 3 for the price of Donaldson 23. Zero long term risk, and all their non needle moving probably moves the needle quite a bit. Obviously everyone would take Donaldson over Sogard and Gyorko. But 23 doesn't equal 6.5. True... but for their 23, I think the Brewers get more wins. Heck, for less than the AAV of Dolandson's 4/110 demand, the Crew adds Anderson as well. In the aggregate, this does more than Donaldson. The bullpen will feature Rasmussen and Andrews at some point. $1.2 million for a pair of Hader-lite relievers. How many wins do you think they cheaply got from the Sogard Gyorko platoon? Remember both are positive grade defenders at 3b and both have half of the platoon in their wheel house. See I add up that clearly Donaldson wins But Garcia should beat Gamel by more than 1 And Smoak I'd expect to be worth 1 playing mainly as a LH1b over a random WW LH1b Then there's Lindblom and I think that makes is pretty even as a group vs 1 piece. You take away the concerns over age degrading Donaldson's value. The possible 8 mil dead money opt out in year 5. You make it less likely that there are multiple black holes due to the added depth. I believe it's a wash in 2020.

Except they signed Sogard 4.5 Gyorko 2 Smoak 4.5 Garcia 8.25 and Lindblom 3 for the price of Donaldson 23. Zero long term risk, and all their non needle moving probably moves the needle quite a bit. Obviously everyone would take Donaldson over Sogard and Gyorko. But 23 doesn't equal 6.5. How about we do this experiment. Sogard and Gyorko are paid 5.5 mil if you merely look at this year. Donaldson 21. Take 15.5 mil off the Brewers off season spending and explain who MKE would replace them with that would make them better? Let me guess? No answer other than the FO needs to spend more money.

I'm not necessarily worried about the guys we have here. I'm worried about the lack of depth we have in the system altogether. The 5 SP we have are completely fine. The problem is that Anderson has an injury history and Houser may not ideally be a starter. Lauer is still young and Lindblom doesn't have experience in the MLB recently. That's a lot of speculation to get through when they only have 5 guys. When you move to the pen you see Peralta and Suter as the next men up in the rotation. That's a good start. The big problem is if we have to move either/both of those two into the rotation due to injury, that leaves you with Hader and who exactly? The team is littered with interesting options but as it currently sits they need a lot of those options to pitch 4 ERA ball and that's no where near a given as we've seen from basically everyone we threw at the wall in 2019. There is a long long list of interesting options but it brings me over to a NFL corner/wr frame of thought. You can have 4 3s and 3 4s and 3 5s on the roster, you are going to struggle because you have to make multiple 3s a 1 and 2. Claudio Black are fine as back end options in the pen. Devin, Feyereisen, Yardley, Wahl, Barker and everyone Clancy likes are interesting options. However, if you think starting 3 of these guys off on the MLB roster is a good thing then you are risking a melt down like they had last year. You want those guys in AAA so that when a domino falls you can replace that domino with one of those guys. It's not that the staff and pen doesn't have pieces who are enough. It's that the team is a few injuries (likely) or flame outs (possibly) away from being right back in the same spot they were last year throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks. I am ok with that strategy to a degree, but the only way that works is if you give yourself as many options as humanly possible and currently I do not see MKE doing that. If there's a trade, I'd love to see a trade for a SP. If they keep going down the FA route I feel like they need 4 more options pushed into this system to get to the point where the injuries and flames can be overcome. Adding Collin McHugh, Aaron Sanchez, Andrew Cashner and Taijuan Walker to the bull pen would go a long way towards pushing our number of options available into a successful range. Walker would give MKE 7 guys (assuming Peralta's CB SL improvement makes SP a revisited idea) competing for 5 spots. The other 3 have all profiled as quality BP arms much like Pom. All 3 show the ability to be Guerra +. If 1 or 2 actually are, that's 1-2 less spots to worry about. They should not be very expensive and they aren't safe in the least. I'd likely go to Suter Peralta and Burnes before I go to anyone but Walker as a SP. However, they are 4 more guys with MLB talent who have a chance of working out and solving a spot before we have to start looking at Wahl, Devin, etc. I'm very hopeful that the farm will produce a number of guys (Burnes, Ashby, File as starters and BP guys in Rasmussen, Brown and Kelly) for the stretch run (last month) of 2020 and for 2021. I am still concerned about 2020 until August.

I really do not like big contracts on guys well past their prime. You are playing with fire and regardless of it working out over the long haul or not, you are not siding with probability in the slightest. I'm glad he ended up with the Twins though. If he flops then he flops. If he doesn't, he's on the Twins and I couldn't care less. I've been waiting for Braun's deal to end since the real Dodgers rumors and I'm hopeful Cain can get back to being a 350 obp guy so he's not merely a GG CF and back of the order bat. I don't want to add another deal like that just when we are on the verge of getting off the overpaid deal of Braun. I don't see offense being a problem. If Sogard Gyorko Smoak don't work out I'm sure there will be guys doing what we expect from them available at the deadline for next to nothing in trade. If they live up to projections the offense will be fine. Donaldson regardless of if you like the price or not, would have essentially capped MKE. The team still needs arms. There are solid arms available on the market and flexibility is good.

We have zero idea if Burnes can get his head or control straight. Brown seems to be trending to the pen like many believe he was meant to become when the Crew drafted him. Supak got destroyed in AAA and I can't imagine handing a rotation spot or pen spot to him at this point. Derby? MKE refused to use Wilkerson, why on earth would they trust Derby? The only 2 guys you can actually look to at this time for the rotation that aren't in the rotation are Suter and Peralta. Both are in the pen as of now. Even though talk of Peralta improving his CB and adding a SL should give us all hope he can start and push Houser back into the pen. They need more arms. They can't be as close to flinging stuff at the wall as they currently are if they want the early season to be different than last year. As of now Woodruff Anderson Lindblom Houser/Peralta Lauer Hader Suter Peralta/Houser Black Is what they have, everything else is an unknown. That's not deep enough. They need to add arms to this. You can't just plunk 4 arms like Claudio Devin Feyereisen and Wahl in there and expect it to just work out.

They'd never do the 1st piece because showing the full scope of this would be suicide. The 2nd 3rd one should obviously be done. As quietly as possible, with language in the CBA that is vague for the specific reason of not making this a story again. 4 it's pretty dumb not to apologize when you are already proven guilty. 5 it's pretty embarrassing that the MLB doesn't understand PR. What you pointed out is taught in PR 101. Spell it out, be specific and explain why you are doing ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING WITHIN YOUR POWER to make sure it never happens again. However do not define "it." Do not explain the full scope of what actually happened and how far it was spread. Missing specifics on changes and the Astro owner's apology are PR mis-steps. However, showing how far it truly went by calling people out is a terrible idea for the image of the league. You want 3-4 fall guys between the 2 teams because that makes the scope of it seem smaller than it is.

Yup. A dominant freak of a relief pitcher that has off days just like every other player in the game. If we had a manager who saw he was off and went to Lyles he might have had a hold. Biggest coaching pet peeve... putting people in position to fail or leaving them in position to fail.

So the Manager didn't approve. Nor did the FO play a part in this. Honestly, I kind of feel bad for them after reading that. Imagine working your lives for this opportunity and wanting to stand on the top of the baseball world on merit and watching people around you run rogue. Do you quit this high paying dream job because you can't get in front of it? Do you speak out and get yourself blacklisted, and risk your entire career? Do you can Cora and watch a revolt? That's a horrible place to be put in. Put me in that position and I'd be besides myself. I'd be destroyed by the notion that I have to throw away what I worked to earn so that I could have a clean conscience because I can't stop what's going on around me. In the end, these guys take the fall anyway. I don't know. However that small price to pay for Astros fans? I'm sorry, if the Crew won a WS this way and it came out they were cheating to win it, I'd feel sick as a fan and I'd be done spending my time and money on the sport. Vacate the title or not, if you claim that as a victory it says a lot about you.

Decrease in revenue sharing dropping their ability to spend. Doing away with fully guaranteed contracts as the current ones would surely be grandfathered in as fully guaranteed. Those are plausible options. Even stiffer penalties on the lux tax violators which could freeze big money spending for a short window of time and deflate the market. That could open a 1-2 year window where available cash is king. Most CBAs amount to nothing. Every once and a while there is a major shift that comes with them. The Bucks missed the boat on it when the NBA had one. A new TV deal was coming a CBA was hitting and the cap was projected to explode. The years leading up to the CBA were a time to extend deals and buy beyond your means because as soon as that new deal hit, teams were flush with money and the FA class couldn't support the money available. Some terrible deals were paid out that off season because teams had money to spend and tried to get as better as they could get with the scraps available. If this rumor has any truth, and MKE is positioning themselves then they see some sort of angle opening up with what they project likely to happen with this CBA. The fact that they are looking down the road and positioning themselves shows how smart this FO really is. Again, assuming its true.

I wanted them to spend more money and bring in a needle mover. There's no way this team is better than last years because I say so. Fact of this off season is that DS has done magician like work piecing together these players at the price he has. Low waste, low risk, high flexibility and the projections work out. Now we get to sit back and see how reality plays out. Something no one can know for certain.

Plausible 1 due to ties + Plausible 2 due to budget = Plausible guess So "a source" runs with it. People need to understand there's a lot of guessing crap going on by guys who are seen as "sources." Click bait world is poison. We could start a thread where we created shred of plausibility rumors and we could be certain some would hit the news cycle. It's just that toxic. Team X with low budget, has stud Y who cost too much money, looking to trade to team Z with a high payroll. Repeat. It's really simple. I know a guy inside the Buffalo Bills organization who explained to me that there was disruption in the 2018 draft class between the owner/coach and the GM Beane. Beane wrote a QB draft board in clear sight with in the building. He put 1 Baker 2 Lamar. It was his informal protest. They traded up and drafted Josh Allen. Josh has not panned out for Buffalo as owner/coach would have hoped. The challenge language the coach expressed toward Allen after the loss this year is a sign that Buffalo does not want to pay Josh Allen and that the GM is gaining leverage within the organization. Make no mistake, Buffalo is looking for their next QB. Beane won the power struggle and earned the credibility he needed to control his own draft. Now is that real? I mean I promise you I have a "source." Here's another. Despite the success GB has shown in 2019 there is trouble brewing in the Packer's front office. Sources within the Packers organization say, Gutekunst has fallen under heavy scrutiny from the Packer's top brass. It should be well known that Gutekunst had worked around Rashan Gary since the prospect committed to Michigan. He had built a personal relationship in his time as a scout with the prospect and had become rather smitten with him. During the draft process many GB scouts had their misgivings about Gary as a 1st round caliber player. Gutekunst refused to hear it and went rogue with the 12th pick in the draft. After an uninspiring 1st season, decision makers in GB have taken notice of the situation. Murphy is not amused by the blatant disregard Gutekunst showed towards his staff's stance. Nor is he pleased with the adamant positive stance Gutekunst took on the depth of the WR room which has proved a problem for GB all season. While success has happened for the Packers in 2019, their GM is on thin ice and needs to respect his staff's hard work if he is going to continue as the leader of NFL operations going forward. Candidates who were recently passed over by GB for the GM vacancy are currently being reconsidered and could unseat the GM this off season if Gutekunst does not show he's a capable leader. Guys it's really that easy.