Ron Robinsons Beard

Speaking in absolutes like that isn't helping your argument. Santana had a good year overall, but was extremely streaky. As were Shaw, Thames and even Arcia. That was the story of the 2017 team. The idea of trading Santana is also a search for more consistency. The question is whether Phillips can provide enough production to justify trading Santana.

Signing with the Rangers, per Heyman. Looks like he's making a move to the pen as well. Will be interesting to see if he's effective out of the gate.

I can't think of a time any contending team did Option 2. Has a contending team shopped their best bat from the previous season pre arby? Domingo was shopped prior to Yelich. Cain was known since november but landing yelich came after domingo got shopped. If the right offers there and we don't add yelich, phillips is the rf... replace from within. I don't think he's seeking pieces as much as he's seeking statistical "break points." To contend you need era at such, run production as such. Excess above and beyond those marks are unnecessary and up for sale. Back loading the farm will keep the team in contention long term. You build to contend every year and in thise multiple chances a title will come. Thornburg was traded from a team that was in an obvious rebuild. When you want better defense and want to cut down on strikeouts, yes, you shop Santana. I would say calling Santana the team's best bat is highly questionable, too. I think the fact that he's still a Brewer is also a reflection of his value in MLB.

I can't think of a time any contending team did Option 2.

If this were a club still in the midst of a rebuild, I'd agree. But the moves they made this offseason are a strong counter to that philosophy. I can't see them trading their closer and a young cost-controlled starter. Subtraction by addition works when you have a surplus at a given position (i.e. outfield), but not when you are talking about the pitching staff.

Not until 2019, and pitchers rarely make huge dollars their first year of arb.

Why Davies? Signing two FA pitchers I would think makes Burnes and/or Woodruff more available in a trade. I would imagine the team would be more willing to give those guys up in a blockbuster than Davies, who is young and established. I mean, Woodruff's upside is Davies, and Burnes' is close to that as well.

They also said Darvish was holding things up, and he signed more than 2 weeks ago. No, the only thing holding up Cobb and Lynn from being signed are Cobb and Lynn. I have no doubt they both have good offers on the table. I'm sure now they are waiting for a pitcher to get hurt or underperform, hoping for a Godfather offer.

I think if those types of guys were available, Santana would be gone. Its obvious at this point that the Brewers are valuing him higher than the teams where he's a potential fit. Potential TOR starters are gold, and typically only go in deadline deals for stars.

That is interesting to hear, and the market seems to possibly be breaking the Brewers' way in regards to available pitchers. Signing Arrieta and Cobb I think would still take a huge financial commitment, but I suppose it is possible to structure both deals so that the financial burden would at least be spread out. Something like 2 years/$45 million for Arrieta and maybe 4 years/$55 million for Cobb, with Cobb's deal more backloaded?

Except Counsell is already on record saying that Yelich will be the team's primary LF. Also, he hasn't played RF in his career because his arm is considered too weak for the position. So you'd be taking a guy who profiles as an elite or at least ++ defender in LF, and switching him to a position where he'd likely be no more than adequate. Also, don't sleep on the idea of Phillips as the primary RF. An outfield of Yelich-Cain-Phillips would likely be one of the best defensive outfields in the majors. Of course, that depends on Phillips's ability to rein in his strikeouts and show better plate discipline. But he's young and is certainly capable of doing that.

I agree with this post 100%. You don't acquire Cain and Yelich without a change in philosophy regarding defensive value. If they wanted to have an outfield of mashers, they would have kept Braun in LF, Santana in RF and Broxton/Brinson in CF. But as it stands now, I think the people that are pencilling Santana into the lineup are jumping the gun. I still think he's the first one to go, and I have a feeling we aren't going to be super happy with the return on him. I'm guessing he'll net a decent bullpen piece or 2B, and probably a borderline Top 100 prospect. Similar to the return on Souza, even though Santana is younger, cheaper, and better in my opinion. I don't doubt that Stearns has probably been close several times to pulling the trigger on a deal with Santana, but for whatever reason they've fallen through. I speculate that he was probably in talks with the Diamondbacks to send Santana there for Drury and maybe Banda, but perhaps decided that wasn't enough. Keep an eye on the corner OF injury list. Santana will be in demand if a big name gets hurt.

Your assessment makes a lot of sense. We had reports from Reilly and HH19 about the same time. Then the three-team trade happened and since then it's been silent. I still expect a series of moves to happen at some point. There's just too many pieces to try to squeeze onto the roster. I would say Santana's upside is higher than Souza's, and he is younger and cheaper, at least for right now. But that deal may determine what kind of return the Brewers can expect back if they were to trade Santana.

I'd say there's a pretty good chance he signs somewhere this week. But with the way this offseason is dragging along, who knows? It's time for players like Cobb and Lynn to crap or get off the pot. Arrieta too, but with Boras as his agent, who knows what his plan is. Boras might tell him to sit until May, then do some sort of highest bidder auction.

Certainly doesn't have a lot of flash. But that screams "Craig Counsell rotation" to me. In a perfect world, the Brewers hold off on signing Cobb for a couple weeks, and Woodruff and Burnes pitch so well in Spring Training and the Brewers are forced to bring them north. Chacin definitely has the stuff to be a dominant set-up guy with his slider if the team finds itself with a surplus of quality rotation candidates.

When the Brewers win a World Series thanks in part to Santana, Phillips, Hader and Houser they could do a 30 for 30 on how that failed Mets trade that would have been horrific turned into this tremendous trade which helped propel them to a championship. Well, Flores would have been a nice fit at 3B, but then the Brewers likely wouldn't have Shaw. That means Thornburg would either still be in the Brewers' pen, or they would have flipped him to another team to shore up a different position. I do have a feeling waiting for Wheeler to get healthy would have gotten very frustrating by now.

$108 million is what I found on one site but sport trac had them at $135 million when they added over $20M in disabled list players. But I will say this, $25 million will come off the books after this season with Mauer no matter what. So if the Twins do go to $125, $20 comes off after the year automatically with Mauer after this season. Got it, thanks! Well, we shall find out this week if HH was full of it or not... I really want Cobb added. If we dont add Cobb, I will be really disappointed... Unless Burnes breaks camp in the rotation, but I highly doubt we have 2 rooks in the rotation. Anderson Davies Chacin Woodruff Burnes They aren't going to start Burnes's arby clock unless he's head and shoulders above the other candidates. Something tells be Woodruff won't make the rotation, either. If I were to bet on it, I'd guess that Suter takes one of the final spots, and either Guerra or Gallardo the other. Guerra pitched well in winter ball, so there's a strong chance he's come into camp ready to compete, and will impress, at least until hitters catch up or he gets hurt again. I think we may see a little invigoration from Gallardo as well, as his fastball was a tick up in the second half of last year. Personally, though, I really like the upside Woodruff and Burnes provide, and having them in the rotation would make things much more exciting, albeit with the strong chance of growing pains. I too would love to see Cobb or Arrieta added, as it gives the staff much more legitimacy, but the Brewers seem to be waiting for those guys to accept what they've offered, as I have no doubt they have floated an offer to Cobb and quite possibly Arrieta as well.

I think that was the supposed lowball offer the Cubs threw at him back in December. As it turns out, maybe it wasn't real lowball. I think he'll likely sign a bigger deal for more years, though. I'm just trying to figure out why these guys are still sitting out on the market when it was supposedly Darvish holding things up.

Versatile? He's versatile all right. He's proven he can't play defense at 3B, SS, 2B, or the OF. Question ... do you just hate Villar, or do you hate that he was given the spot last year over Gennett?

Exactly, and compared to Sogard......well, it really isn't comparable. Yes! I agree with this. Villar has a ton of talent, and if he can figure it out mentally, he would be leaps and bounds above Sogard. That said, if they sign Walker, I think Villar is probably gone. But if they stand pat, Villar is without a doubt the starter, and Sogard may not even make the team, considering Perez is more versatile and, well, better.

I think anyone who is a Top 100 prospect should be expected to eventually reach the majors. There are not many superstars on that list, though. How about a list of guys who had a really good year in their first full season but weren't top prospects like Mejia and McKenzie? How many of those would jump out at you as proven above average major league regulars? LOL, I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I would certainly like to see that list, though.

Sure looks like they did. They are literally one day into Spring Training. They have time to get things sorted out.

I think anyone who is a Top 100 prospect should be expected to eventually reach the majors. There are not many superstars on that list, though.

That's rather unreasonable. Every big league regular was once just a prospect. There are much better ways to evaluate talent than just looking at what a guy did in his first full season. Unless >>>>>> means more experienced, it's a silly thing to pass off as fact. Sticking to your guns with Villar doesn't help your case. And it doesn't come down to "falling off a cliff", despite your insistence on polarizing the issues involved. It comes down to the probability that Mejia and McKenzie will out-produce Knebel, Santana, and Shaw for significantly less money during a period when the Brewers are more likely to be in contention. It's a continuum of possibilities, not a matter of black and white as you present it. Santana has plenty of issues that should remind anyone with a sense of caution and tempered enthusiasm of Villar. High BABIP, terrible defense, lots of strikeouts, and mental lapses. Knebel's walk rate is way too high for an elite closer and he played with fire all year. I like Shaw, but he was never anything but an ordinary prospect compared to Mejia and McKenzie and he had one really good year in his prime (as so many average regulars do), just one year after being demoted on a team that desperately needed a 3b. What I mean is that every team in the league values major league players more than prospects. When was the last time you saw multiple major league pieces traded for a prospect? High end prospects are traded all the time for average major league players. The fact is prospects flame out at a higher rate than they succeed. Heck, if you need proof, just go back and look at the 2012 Top 100 Prospects. Sure, there are a few nice hits in that group, but more misses. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

+1 I don't get valuing other team's prospects more than our high-end big leaguers. I mean, I get that some players do regress, but you'd think by reading some posts around here that every player on the Brewers' team is bound to be horrible! High-end big leaguers? Was that Villar and Guerra last year too? I'm not over-valuing top prospects; you're undervaluing them. And over-valuing 3 guys over 25 with a combined career WAR of about 10. That is NOT high-end, proven major league talent, and there was nothing about their past as prospects that suggests they're in the same league as guys like Mejia and McKenzie. Dude, Big League Regulars >>>>>> prospects. Every single time. If you believe guys like Santana, Shaw and Knebel are all of a sudden going to fall off a cliff, I'm going to vehemently disagree. Sure, Villar regressed. Guerra was hurt, so that comparison can be tossed. But yes, going into last season, Villar was considered a building block and yes, a high-end big leaguer.