coolhandluke121
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Everything posted by coolhandluke121
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It's hard to think of sign-and-trades that work. For one thing, the NBA has gotten a lot stricter about sign-and-trades. Teams were abusing Bird Rights in sign-and-trades, and they put a stop to that. Then you have the fact that the Bucks would be looking for immediate "win now" help, but any team trading for Khris is doing the same so your interests are in conflict. It would typically be easier to sign and trade Khris to a wannabe contender for an expiring contract and a draft pick, which doesn't make sense when your contention window is wide open... and wannabe contenders don't like giving up the type of players who can help a team win now, which is what the Bucks would want.
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Volatility cuts both ways. I all but guarantee at least one or two guys will be pleasant surprises, but you can also safely bet that there will be cringe-worthy performances to replace last year's scrubs. I think the bottom line is that they have significantly less talent in the pen this year.
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All true at this point. I was sincerely hoping he would embrace more of an off-ball role in Bud's offense, but that doesn't appear to be in his muscle memory bank or something. He's not the 2nd-best player on the team anymore. Bledsoe has been much better pretty much all year, because elite pg defense is extremely valuable in today's NBA (even if all-star berths don't recognize it). I think Brogdon has finally passed him at this point as Khris continues to put up mediocre efficiency. Lopez is more of a unique x-factor, though we saw against Philly how his lack of mobility is going to be an issue in the playoffs. That said, it's just not like other sports because of some unusual features of the NBA collective bargaining agreement. Khris would have to play even worse on a consistent basis before it's in the Bucks' best financial and personnel interests to let him walk, because you're not allowed to spend the money on someone else.
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There is a lot of variance, but it's not impossible to make reasonable projections. I think it's reasonable to suggest they're unlikely to be anywhere near as strong as last year. For one thing, they were a legendary bullpen last year, so by definition it's just really hard to live up to that standard. They changed the way average people think of bullpen usage. How do you lose Woodruff, Burnes, Soria, and perhaps (for all intensive porpoises) JJ and not get a lot worse in the pen? A couple of Peralta's best games were technically relief appearances as well. And while they still have Knebel and Hader, I think the most reasonable projections should have the pen regressing a lot, despite the standard disclaimer that bullpen performance is pretty volatile. On the plus side, some of the best arms are going to the rotation. Manage innings and make a successful transition from Anderson/Davies to Peralta/Nelson a few months in, and the rotation could more than make up the difference by the end of the year.
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Mike Trout agrees to 12-year, $430M extension
coolhandluke121 replied to Matt Breen's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Oh no. I was so looking forward to hearing about his free agency for the next 2 years and whether he would sign with the Yankees, Red Sox, or Cubs. Any info on no-trade language in the deal? -
Count me as one of the bullpen skeptics. I think the rotation could more than make up for it though. Bullpen fortunes can change in a hurry. A few mid-season trades and moving a young guy back to the pen when he comes close to his innings limit could make all the difference. The bullpen is probably losing Burnes, Woodruff, and Soria (yes, he was good despite the complaints and some bad timing on hits surrendered - Brewer fans got spoiled rotten by last year's pen). Cedeno had a 1.13 e.r.a. and Jennings was at 3.22. Jeffress is a total question mark at this point. Albers, Williams, Claudio, Guerra, and Barnes aren't likely making up that difference, no matter how much you want to talk about "stuff" that hasn't led to results or cherry-pick stats like Albers' first 30 innings last year or random lucky seasons in the past. Reliever performance can vary a lot, but I don't see justification for projecting a strong pen this year. Guys like Knebel and Hader have tremendous value in the playoffs, but depth is much more important in the regular season.
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Agreed. Keeping Khris is all about the way the CBA works, but at worst it takes you from being a slight East favorite to maybe being a 2/3 seed if you lose him. As of now, they're the 17th team in NBA history to have a +9 ppg differential. A 7/8 seed in the East is a slightly below average team. No way Khris matters even half that much. Not the way he's playing this year. The only dilemma is if you think he's going to get even more lackadaisical, to the point where you're better off with DDV, Wilson, Brown, and Snell dividing up his minutes. And even then, why compromise your depth? Using the full MLE instead of the reduced tax-payer MLE for a couple years is also a factor, but that's not a huge difference. Someone might know more about this, but I think sign and trade options will be pretty limited because he's only making $13m this year and will presumably get a decent raise, even if it's not as much as some expected at the beginning of the year. That often makes it harder to match salaries. The point of Bird Rights is to help teams keep their core together, so Bird Rights are much harder to exploit if you're only signing the player on behalf of another team. What I'm not clear on is how much salary the Bucks could take back in a sign-and-trade involving Khris. It might be only about 120% of his current salary.
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Don't get me wrong; I think they should be the favorites against everyone except the Warriors, who I think are kind of coasting the way great teams do when they have nothing left to prove in the regular season. I get annoyed when people dismiss the Bucks because they haven't been there before. If you're a professional analyst, for crying out loud at least come up with a real basketball reason they won't win the East. Don't just say they haven't been there before. I'll grant that it's unusual to improve so much in one year, but even then you should still be able to say what it is they haven't improved enough instead of taking such a weak stance. They have absolutely been the best team in the regular season. On that note, in terms of what they may not have improved enough, I would say slow perimeter defense and inconsistent 3-point shooting (especially when normed against all the wide open looks they get) are the main basketball reasons they might not win the East. Who knows what you're getting from Khris on any given night, but he's getting more open 3's than ever and you would think he would be able to have a career year from behind the arc. Instead, he's having one of his worst seasons shooting the 3.
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Nothing wrong with the Bucks' defensive strategy per se, but it's not wrong to suggest that they could be better at contesting shots. They don't have much defensive closing speed other than Giannis and Bledsoe. It can hurt them against teams with lots of good shooters and against teams with centers who can shoot. The real story of this game is the Bucks not hitting their own open 3's though. I think Wilson is an important player for them and I'm not convinced he should ever have been benched. He makes so much difference in the energy and quickness department, and they need that more than they need yet another proven but slow 3-point shooter (Ersan, Mirotic, BroLo).
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His shot seems flatter than ever and he clearly isn't in harmony with the new offensive paradigm. Really don't understand why he can't hit more of his wide open 3's and play off the ball more.
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I think the Bucks are actually kind of a mediocre 3-point shooting team considering how many wide open looks they get.
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Any reason they can't plan to give multiple guys 2/3 of a season in the rotation like they did with Chase last year? Obviously performance will dictate what they ultimately do, but it would make sense to preserve innings for the young guys and let Nelson work his way back gradually. Therefore you can plan on keeping Nelson and one of the young guys in AAA, getting just enough innings to stay stretched out but saving most of their work for the big club. You can have a young guy in long relief with the intention of moving him into the rotation in July or August without him being close to his innings limit. And you can try to get some quality innings out of Anderson and Davies while improving their trade value and then making way for more talented young pitchers later in the year. Not that anything ever goes according to plan in baseball, but maybe it's just another way of saying that you can never have too many SP options. It makes sense to have so many starters under the circumstances, and it's by no means a logjam.
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If DDV, Hill, and Brown weren't also injured, I would be a lot less concerned. Fortunately this isn't the same foot that Brogdon had surgery on in college. That doesn't necessarily mean it's not related (he could be compensating), but it's still somewhat reassuring. Having to come back from a long layoff in the middle of the playoffs is not good though.
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Improve Moustakas' defense by putting him at SS
coolhandluke121 replied to CheezWizHed's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I seem to remember Arcia playing on the other side of 2B a few times. They believe in everything being completely fluid in terms of where to put all 3 of their infielders (1B's don't have a choice; they have to play near the bag by rule). With guys like Perez and Villar at 2B, it wasn't an issue, but with Moose or Shaw there, I'm sure we'll see it more. -
There's not really any cap space of consequence with Bledsoe's 2019-2020 salary now officially on the books and with Khris's cap hold. There is some, but I'm pretty sure it's less than the MLE... and you'd have to renounce the MLE to use that cap space anyway. Sounds like something you calculated without Mirotic's cap hold. Assuming you keep Khris's cap hold, your options are to have slightly less than the MLE in cap space, or to have the MLE itself and keep Mirotic's cap hold. Why renounce the MLE and Mirotic's cap hold just to free up cap space that amounts to less than the MLE? Even if you unload Snell or Ersan, you're still not winning that trade-off. If you unload both of them, maybe... but is setting aside that much money for Lopez really better than having Mirotic while still keeping the MLE to use on a replacement for Lopez? Frankly I still think you can make a case for throwing all notions of cap space to the wind and picking up Hill's option too. He doesn't impress at first sight, but his so-called intangibles are good. I think they've missed him a lot since he's been out, and I don't think they have an adequate replacement.
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They will be well over the cap with all the cap holds. They can't give Lopez more than the MLE if they're over the cap (or ~120% of his current salary, which is even less than the MLE). He's not like Mirotic or Middleton, who have full Bird Rights coming off multi-year deals. It's basically to prevent teams from using 1-year deals as a loophole to get full Bird Rights and circumvent the salary cap. I guess they figured they already give teams enough tricks to get around the cap.
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I don't think that's right. The most they can pay Lopez is the mid-level exception. If they're over the luxury tax threshold, their MLE will only be about $5m. He's on a 1-year deal, so they don't have full Bird Rights to pay over the cap to re-sign him. The days of guys like Lopez getting huge deals are probably long gone, but I'm pretty sure he could get a lot more than the tax-payer MLE - and he wouldn't necessarily have to go to a bad situation to get that. Bledsoe might have freed up about $3m for Lopez in the sense that Bledsoe's 2019-2020 salary is a little lower than expected and therefore they're less likely to pay the luxury tax next year, meaning they would have the full MLE (over $8m) instead of the tax-payer MLE for Lopez. What I'm not clear on is what would happen if they want to offer the full MLE to Lopez but then Brogdon signs an offer sheet that would put them in the tax-payer MLE zone. I wouldn't think they're forced to wait for Brogdon's offer sheet (restricted free agency can drag on for months) before they can make a full MLE offer to Lopez, and I don't think the cap holds on Khris, Brogdon, Mirotic, a draft pick, and the MLE itself (yes, that has a cap hold as well) will put them in the tax-payer zone. So maybe a huge August offer sheet for Brogdon, which the Bucks subsequently match, doesn't affect their MLE until 2020-2021? I really don't know.
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I hate these ideas. They want it both ways - more offense, but faster games. Those are mutually conflicting goals. Heck, a 3-batter minimum is almost as drastic as just getting rid of an inning or something like that. It's actually very forced and inorganic by comparison. So many of these ideas remind me of the the corporate-minded education reform stuff that has poisoned schools. Not enough students passing a standardized test? Make a policy that more students have to pass or else. How creative! As if a lack of a policy against failure is the real issue... Want faster games? Call more strikes, period. I remember Carlos Torres on the pregame show, talking about how with the Mets he played a series where games averaged about 2 hours because they called more strikes. If batters have to swing, you get more balls in play or more strikeouts, without such long counts. The strikeouts would go way up at first, but eventually this would favor good contact hitters, and the game would be more exciting. Besides, a strikeout goes faster than a walk. The current model favors the "three true outcomes" way too much.
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Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
coolhandluke121 replied to anglotiger's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Anderson's fly-ball:homer rate was incredibly lucky in 2017. His uptick in velocity was mostly explained by nearly everyone getting an uptick in velocity because the technology for measuring velocity changed. Nelson was always a much more talented pitcher than Anderson. However, 2017 was less than 30% of his career workload and roughly 2/3 of his career WAR. In terms of the amount of data there weighed against the amount of deviation from his norm, I think it's semantically fair to call it an outlier. However, the connotation with outliers is that you often consider throwing them out completely, and I don't think anyone is (or should be) suggesting that. It's the combination of that being a possible career year and him recovering from labral surgery that makes people really reluctant to project future performance based on 2017. -
I like ESPN's list. I usually do. Their basketball list is usually really good too. I think Hader deserves to be the top reliever, and I'm glad they're picky about relievers. I'd leave Knebel off too, at least for one more year. Cain is awfully low based on last year, but I can see why they would be skeptical of a player with his skill set being able to put up another career year at his age. He legged out a lot of infield singles that could have gone either way. Yelich is fair. Do we really expect him to be better than Lindor, Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Harper on a regular basis? Putting him ahead of those guys is adequate recognition for the year he had. I would consider Shaw but I don't think he has much of a complaint. Aguilar has none IMO, and I can't see how MLB.com would put him at 62. Just too easy to find a solid slugger at 1B. Grandal is a little low on both lists IMO. He has a chance to mash in his new home park, and he's a catcher.
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Jimmy Nelson update from On Deck
coolhandluke121 replied to anglotiger's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Jimmy always had some good pitches but that works both ways. To say he looks good now might not mean any more than it meant in 2015 or 2016. Statistically it's true that 2017 was an outlier. Instinctively it felt like he always had that potential and had turned the corner. Logically it seems that he should still be better than 2015 or 2016 simply because experience was probably the issue at the time, but pitching is such a delicate balance that it's hard to imagine labral surgery not causing some bumps along the way. -
Walter Johnson Roger Clemens Zach Davies What are RHP's with a streak of 5 consecutive road starts with at least 6 innings in each start and no earned runs surrendered, Alex? If there's a better stat out there for evaluating Zach's impact, I'd like to know what it is.
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Reading Kerr's lips in a remark to assistant coach Mike Brown: "I'm so **** sick of Draymond's ****." Kerr after the fact, trying to defuse the situation: "What I said was 'I beg to differ with Draymond's approach tonight.' Those were my exact words." Dude has a good sense of humor, and kudos for him for not denying it in any kind of way that people might believe. I like this alternative interpretation: "I'm so finding out about dry mount sheets."
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I definitely think they should give Davies and Anderson a chance this year. If nothing else, just see if you can get their trade value up before you give a spot in the rotation to a young guy with a possible innings limit.
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I think it's because his comments were something to the effect that there's no pain or discomfort but his "body just isn't right". We can't know for sure but given his workload last year, his performance as his workload approached extremely rare levels, and his start to the spring, it sure supports the theory that he wore out his arm last year. I get why people would say we don't know for sure, but I don't get how anyone can deny that the evidence strongly supports it. Someone accused me of having an agenda, but I think it's pretty clear that the people who still refuse to even entertain the possibility despite all the circumstantial evidence are the ones with the agenda. I'm sure most of them are the same people who supported JJ pitching over and over again against LAD despite all the signs that he was falling apart, and the same people who often complained that they didn't use Hader enough and finally forced an exasperated CC to say "look, he can't pitch 90 games, okay?"