coolhandluke121
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Everything posted by coolhandluke121
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I think Peralta is always going to be pretty inconsistent. He reminds me of late career K-Rod a lot. He'll always get guys to chase, but he'll need a lot of pitches and his command will come and go. I think I'd strongly consider including him with Hiura to get Realmuto, but only if they can get a serviceable starter to replace him in some other trade. His innings limit is also a slight concern in a pennant chase.
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If the prospects you scouted and asked for underperform that's not really on the other team....that's on you. The thing about the Marlins is that they're a very new regime and they haven't had much time to scout anyone. I mean, it's probably not a big issue now, but I could see it being a factor with the Yelich trade. Brinson was a consensus top prospect but I think the front office and fans who saw him every day might have seen some red flags that you might not notice if you're not around him every day. If I was a Marlins fan, I would certainly not want my unproven front office to deal with the Brewers because I would be fairly certain the Brewers are going to take advantage of them. I doubt the front office feels that way, but if the Brewers are trading a top prospect, you have to wonder if there's something wrong with him that another team wouldn't know about it (not an injury, but a subtle reason he's not going to be as good as his rating). A normal person would have some self-doubt when dealing with the Brewers after gifting them Yelich, but a lot of people in that business are probably over-confident in their abilities. Bottom line, it probably doesn't matter to Miami's front office, but if I was a Marlins fan, I would be very worried about them talking to the Brewers (if they are). Heck, I would be worried about it if I was almost any other team's fan in a high stakes trade.
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Really didn't think the Cards were any good this year, but I'm glad they believed in all their fluke careers years from last year and doubled down on a weak core. Gonna be fun watching them flounder for years.
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Nationals last minute sellers?
coolhandluke121 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Not much interest in giving anything of value for Harper. If you are going to try to make that kind of splash, go for Realmuto. In a way the Nats are almost lucky things are going the way they have this year. I think they were very likely to start a pretty fast decline from their peak anyway (age + injury histories + much better competition in the East), but this allows them to cash in on assets while they still can instead of keeping them all for an 87-win season with absolutely nothing to show for it. Harper's season in particular makes it a lot easier to trade him. -
Let Woodruff, Miley, and Peralta pitch. Anderson and Chacin are obviously fine. Guerra is probably okay. Just need a few solid starts from others to get to those September bullpen games. Nelson and Davies deserve an opportunity to earn their spots back next spring, and with Burnes and Peralta in the mix, I don't see the right starter at the right price on the market.
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That's historically true but I think the trade market could be affected by some of the same things that dramatically changed free agency this year - namely, teams valuing their controllable young prospects more than they used to. Catcher production is fairly volatile, too - not like relievers, but right up there with starting pitchers as the second-most volatile position. Besides, I think Hiura + Peralta would be pretty close to a king's ransom for 2.33 years of a super-2 guy who's going to get big raises in arbitration.
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The Marlins have to be careful not to overplay their hand. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, who's left to potentially give them a king's ransom? I'd gladly do a deal centered on Hiura, but would not also include Burnes. I would consider adding Peralta if the Marlins sweeten the deal somehow, but I'm not interested in Castro and he doesn't make much sense now anyway. Dietrich makes no sense after the Moose trade either, and he isn't exactly a throw-in in the first place. Brian Anderson could finally replace Perez, but they're probably not trading guys that young. Don't think they have a starter who can help the Brewers, and the Brewers have plenty of good bullpen arms. I think if it was just Hiura, Peralta, and a couple lotto tickets, I'd bite the bullet and do it. The NL is wide open, and the Brewers would have a great chance to have the best overall record in the league over the next 3 years. I usually prefer to err on the side of keeping prospects, but we're talking the best world series chance the Brewers have had since the early 80's IMO.
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I'm not interested either. I normally think clubhouse chemistry and leadership are cliches, but this team is obviously a very high-functioning, healthy working environment and I don't want that clown around. He's not really pitching any better than an average 5 anyway.
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LOL at the very next poster pointing out that Villar is better against LHP's than Murphy. I clearly said that Moustakas might be better off picking up his option because the market will be more favorable in 2020 so... Not to mention the fact that the debate is clearly about whether people are correct in saying there's no doubt that he's just a rental, which is not a given if there's a chance he picks up his option. Did Moustakas beat 1/$15m on the open market this year? He's older and he's playing worse than he did last year. Also, he and a few others like Holland foolishly turned down better offers and were left holding the bag. Who's to say those offers will come back? Did they come back last winter? Now that teams understand the market correction that has happened to players like him, it much less likely anyone will make him the type of offer the Angels did again. Lots of teams overpaid (or tried to overpay) early in free agency before they realized what was going on. The days of mediocre players at the tail end of their prime getting 3/$45 may be over. So 0% is a figure of speech... is "crazy and delusional" a figure of speech too? You should probably find some new figures of speech.
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I don't follow. Are you suggesting that whether the Brewers might be able to retain his services at a reasonable cost for one more season is not an important aspect of the trade?
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Would you say there is a 0% chance he takes that option, like you said there's a 0% chance Villar is better as an RHB even though his career OPS is 60 points better from that side of the plate? Pretty amazing how, according to you, the thing that is supported by factual evidence and history is the thing that can't possibly be legit, whereas the alternative is 100% obvious in both cases.
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Pretty obvious move with all the good LHB's they have now. Saladino is the only other SS and Villar is a solid defender because of his range and is much better as an RHB, as clearly shown by his career splits. Perez is also safe because they can't count on Braun or Santana.
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Good point. They have shown a tremendous ability to improvise and to understand all the nuances of a situation. For example, Moustakas is a low OBP guy, but his contact rate will be perfect in the 6 hole for the Brewers, so his OBP alone doesn't tell the full story. Some other nuances and improvisations they've taken advantage of very successfully include getting the most out of their staff by using the bullpen creatively, signing a 32 year old all star because they had good reason to believe he was aging well, acquiring 2 all star outfielders despite having Braun and Santana, selling high on their #1 prospect, prioritizing great defense at the most important positions while minimizing the damage at weak positions, and using extreme shifts to get every advantage they can. A lot of things that looked bad upon "first inspection" (read: knee-jerk reaction) turned out great. I gotta give them the benefit of the doubt even though I wouldn't have made this deal. It's not like Shaw is going to play 8+ innings per game at 2b, or anywhere near that. This really isn't any worse than the 1b/corner outfield logjam, which has proven to be a positive.
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Perhaps we should all wait and see. Big improvement in your second try. With Donalson, Beltre, and Machado available, the 3B market could be even tougher than it was last year. Nothing crazy about thinking a guy with a career OBP just north of .300 might have to settle for $15m.
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Hey, why didn't Braun get his chance to play 2b? May as well at this point. I hope his feelings aren't hurt. Can't afford to alienate your Best Hitter When Healthy.
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Not so sure. A full season at Miller and then hitting free agency in a more favorable market could be a good gamble for them. And let's be real; he's a ~.320ish OBP guy at best and the market isn't all of a sudden gonna start breaking the bank for guys like that again.
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He could certainly sustain a 40 homer pace as a Brewer, but finishing with 40 would be Ruthian at this stage of the season. I don't like the trade but I think the people who despise it are underestimating park factors.
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I don't really like it. Gotta give them the benefit of the doubt on evaluating Lopez and Phillips, but that's just one aspect of the deal. I guess Moustakas is going to turn some fly outs into home runs at Miller Park, and it's not like Villar/Miller was great defense at 2b anyway.... I'm still really surprised they did this though.
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Asdrubal Cabrera to the Phillies
coolhandluke121 replied to OnaBadger58's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I could have lived with a decent prospect for Cabrera trade, but I think I'm happy other teams are making these deals. I don't think anyone has gotten any huge steals, so I don't blame Stearns for not swinging more deals. One thing that isn't mentioned often in his success is just the incredible diligence they've shown in checking in with everyone and leaving no stone unturned. I'm sure every gm says "we are so busy right now, phone is ringing off the hook 24/7, working 18 hour days" but you get the impression that Stearns and his team are legit putting in a little more work. They know they'll keep finding bargains if they cover enough ground, and they'll keep looking until they beat the market some way, somehow. -
Weak links in the pen have cost the Brewers some games too. And yes, that includes their so-called closer. Turn some of those into wins, which this should do, and you'd still have the best record in the NL. I never understand the logic that says you should improve a weaker area instead of improving a strength and making it elite. Adding wins is adding wins. I loved Kodi when he was drafted but I don't blame them for trading him. He hasn't gotten it done despite what I saw an awesome delivery that would be insanely hard to hit. It's like trading an athletic guy who just can't seem to get the hang of the craft of hitting. Tools don't count for much without production.
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Nationals last minute sellers?
coolhandluke121 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
They should and they could be a good match for the Brewers. I don't expect them to because they still have by far the best combination of talent and experience in the east if their injury luck evens out a little. The other question is whether they've got too much of a hole to climb out of, which I think they do. Add in the obvious issues with market, payroll, and all the revenue they have to give the Orioles, and it should be an easy decision. Otherwise they are the 2012 Brewers, blowing a chance to cash out on a core that has peaked and gone downhill fast and ruining their next 4 years in the process. Heck, they should probably shop Scherzer. -
Any official update? Are we sure he's out for an extended time again?
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All depends on the details. I can see the logic of getting both. It would suck to pay a price for an upgrade but not get enough of an upgrade. If you hedge your bets by addressing two major needs, you're less likely to miss the playoffs and feel stupid for trading prospects. Of course there's still a decent chance you miss the playoffs and feel even stupider, but I think this is a wild card team with Dozier and Gibson. I give them the benefit of the doubt if they decide it's worth it, but I would prefer to save trade chips for next year and beyond when they'll be more likely to win the division.
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Well, Williams' career-high in wins was also 86. His absurd success rate on transactions is comparable to hitting .400 so yes. That's what you judge a gm on. You ignore all context and act like you're adding some kind of insight. Boston only won 84 games when Williams hit .406; does that mean you can't compare his season to other great seasons? He only had 120 RBI's so does that put a damper on how great he was? Of course not, because there's so much context and so many other people involved. The reason they've "only" been an 85-90 win team for the last 2 years is because of all the short-sighted moves they made to decimate the organization before he became gm, which is the equivalent of a great hitter not having a lot of RBI's because there aren't enough people on base when he hits. I'm sure a lot of the people who don't understand that are the same ones advocating more short-sighted moves right now, but thankfully they're better than that and Mark A appears to have learned his lesson. An average gm would have about 70 wins last year and 75 this year, all with a weaker farm system. The difference he's made is nothing short of elite.
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Seriously. I like Counsell and I think people nitpick his moves too much, but this one I don't get. Cain is one of the most perfect lead-off hitters in my lifetime. Great speed and obp (and I don't use the term "great" likely), but no slugging to drive guys in. Cain, Yelich, Aguilar, Shaw, Thames is great. If you're obsessed with alternative LHB's and RHB's, which is helpful but not absolutely necessary, you can go with Yelich, Cain, Shaw, Aguilar, Thames. But as slow as Thames is and with his ability to drive in a few runs with one swing, I just don't get leading him off at all.