coolhandluke121

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia? Bantering back and forth about a trade that didn't happen two years ago is flat out annoying. It is what it is... move on. Getting hung up on it now is pretty silly to me. But discussing Braun as a part of the offensive woes is perfectly fine and is what the thread was all about. The rest is a bunch of trash littering this thread because a couple posters are ticked they didn't get their way a couple of years ago. LOL, okay. As if all the Braun fanboy-ism we've been subjected to all these years isn't trash, too.

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia?

Not sure what you mean. It WAS that easy. We had Puig, we had BMac, and we had a prospect. Most importantly, we had Braun off the books. We had it done and haggled over the 2nd prospect and let it all far apart in the 11th hour. Exactly. I don't blame the Brewers for trying to get more, but they should have been going into it with the attitude that they would absolutely accept Puig and McCarthy if they had any concerns that the deal might fall through. They looked a gift horse in the mouth and it's looking like a huge mistake. The only very strong assumptions on display were about Braun's future performance and how his salary might affect the team. And it's not just the fact that they made a mistake (they'll make lots of those), it's the total lack of sound principles in their decision-making. Waiving Gennett was a mistake but a forgivable one, because they used sound principles and just guessed wrong. But keeping Braun relied totally on hoping that a player with his age and injury history would be anything but a huge liability at his salary, which was a terrible gamble considering he was less than a year away from earning his 10/5 rights and when the trade market was obviously very limited to begin with. This is about wishful thinking, foolish Braun nostalgia, and fiscal irresponsibility. Any other nuances of the deal are relevant, but are footnotes by comparison. Is it time to forget it and move on? Maybe, but don't dismiss the likelihood of the same mental blocks preventing the Brewers from making the right decisions with regard to Braun moving forward, up to and including keeping him on the DL or negotiating a retirement instead of continuing to trot him out their in lieu of better options in the thick of a pennant race. It's important to revisit the thought process that went into keeping him and scrutinize it thoroughly for that reason alone.

Not if they DFA him. Sorry not sorry. You don't have to apologize for that thought to him, he was the one who originally asked the question of how long you let an unproductive Braun remain on the roster and he was mocked mercilessly like it was the most ridiculous question ever proposed. The non-apology was meant for the board at large. I was on his side of that argument. Hard to believe they had a chance to get something of value for him just a few short years ago and blew it. Just take Puig and McCarthy and run before they change their mind. Can't see how anyone really hoped this would turn out well given his age and injury history.

Not if they DFA him. Sorry not sorry.

That and letting the pitcher hit only to pull him a few outs later. Don't understand why Counsell and the front office have such ridiculous mental blocks in those two things because they're pretty good otherwise.

I apologize in advance for patting myself on the back a little, but I wanted to trade Villar for the best offer possible after his amazing 2016 season and keep Scooter. It wasn't even about liking Scooter though; I was just in "asset management" mode. I figured Villar's value would never be that high again and Scooter's would never be that low. I've no right to brag for guessing right in that particular situation, but I do think the asset management principle (as opposed to what you think of Scooter or Villar) is the real story because it will guide you to the right choice more often than not.

Let's talk about the real scandal here - people who use PED's to enhance their ability to argue more convincingly and make more accurate predictions on bf.net. It's time to level the playing field. Kinda disappointed about Cano. I understand being "over it" but I think you have to hold the line. Gotta reward people who are clean for doing it the right way and continue to punish cheaters, even though you'll never catch them all. Lots of PED's are out of your system fast and I'm guessing people take a calculated risk and use them when they need them, hoping that's not one of the few days a year they get tested. Another issue is just the fact that not all PED's are "bad" like steroids. A little HGH or testosterone is prescribed to aid healing for a variety of conditions. Heck, steroids are too, but from a sporting perspective, I draw a distinction between helping you recover your baseline ability and actually improving it. Drawing a different line between PED's and allowable medical treatments could make this a lot simpler. Steroids stay in your system a long time if I'm not mistaken. Those will always be banned and pretty easy to test for. If testosterone was allowed, you'd at least know that everyone is allowed to use it, as opposed to knowing that many are cheating and getting away with it.

Opposing hitters are so demoralized that they make defensive miscues that give the Brewers a better chance of scoring.

I believe that. The "bad luck" narrative is devoid of context. His hard contact rates are at a career low, and hard contact is just a percentage of contact so it doesn't take all the k's into account. A guy like Braun, Pujols, or A-Rod can continue to hit the ball hard when they make contact, but in no way is that a sign that they're going to be good hitters again.

Well he's at .681 at this point, so even .800 would be terrific. Also, it's a "bad" .681 because of the parks he's played in, because he's a below average defender at every position he plays, because it's fair to expect much more offense from his positions, and because OPS undervalues OBP and he has a dramatic split in favor of SLG in his OPS. Santana and Villar are both ~50 points higher in OBP despite having a very similar OPS.

I agree about Coles. At some point you have to look at the preponderance of evidence and say it's not just normal fluctuation and luck. Same goes for Derek Johnson, but in a good way of course. That was a really good catch on Braun's bat. It completely slipped everyone else's observation. It really jives with other things we've observed, like his higher k% and the notion that he's starting his swing a little earlier. He's trying to preserve his slugging at the expense of other concerns, and that's not the right approach. He's always been a guy who looked for slugging over OBP, and he would have been even better with a more patient approach. We forgave him because he was so good anyway, but he can't get away with bad habits anymore. He does have great ability to make contact and he should be transitioning to a singles and doubles guy. I think Lucroy's approach from the year he led the league in doubles would be ideal for Braun. Just wait for your pitch and don't swing for the fences so much.

No doubt. It's a pretty obvious move. If Braun were a little younger I'd say give him more time, but you can't afford to let this continue in hopes of Braun being a good hitter again soon. There's no guarantee he will be, and even if he is, will he be better than Aguilar, Thames, Yelich, Cain, or Santana? I doubt it.

Posted this in the game thread where Braun was being discussed, but it probably belongs here: Someone else mentioned the long bat he uses and that's probably an issue too. He should really face facts and move to a smaller bat and try to be like prime Lucroy, a really good singles and doubles hitter without a lot of hr's.

Absolutely no interest in Archer. Don't want any more Weeks/Hart/Marcum/Wolf/Ramirez/Gallardo/Lohse decline candidates whose peripherals support continued dramatic decline. He probably won't be better than Woodruff or Guerra, and could be worse, but they'll keep giving him the ball for months before they realize it. We have one washed-up scrub on the team making more than anyone else and that's more than enough. I hate "win-now" moves that have a good chance of actually making you worse now, let alone what they do in the future. If you really want a pitcher, rent a true ace for the playoffs (when aces really matter) if you're still in first place at the deadline. Stay away from Archer. Lowrie might be cool but he reminds me of Gerardo Parra when he was traded to the Orioles. Ridiculous career year stuff but be wary of giving up anything of value for him because it might not continue.

Very well could be. At least a combination of this plus some hard luck. He definitely needs to get back to some better disciplined at bats but when I see things like: -“Ryan Braun has a .250 BABIP which is basically a career low, on a 20.6 line drive percentage, which is almost a career high.” -“Less subjectively, his average exit velocity thus far on liners and fly balls is 97.5 mph. That ranks 25th out of 379 hitters (min 25 AB). While exit velocity isn't exactly predictive, it does suggest his .250 BABIP is a load of crap.” It makes me feel a heck of a lot better about his odds to come out of this slumber and help this team this season. I definitely agree with the person who said he's glad the Brewers don't rush to these decisions. I think they give players a fair amount of time before they make changes. Players would lose respect for management if they made impulsive decisions based on slumps. That said, it's probably more than a slump for Braun. He's at that age where it would be more unusual for him to bounce back than it would for him to be a shell of his former self more often than not. More importantly, they probably have 5 guys who are significantly better than him right now at OF/1B... and if you know what I think of Aguilar's chances of maintaining his production (still at a .383 babip on lower hard contact rates than last year), you know how hard that is for me to say. Lastly, the batted ball stuff is not the end-all, be-all. You need more context. His k% is a whopping 5% higher than his career averages, his k/bb ratio is 30% lower, and he often looks like a drunk softball player at the plate. What's going on is probably the same thing that happened to A-Rod towards the end: lower bat speed ---> starting swing a split-second sooner ---> solid power on contact, especially with fastballs ---> respectable slugging buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut ----> swinging too soon on off-speed stuff ---> chasing bad pitches ---> horrible OBP ---> bad player Don't hold your breath waiting for the babip and hard contact rates to give him some kind of huge boost.

I think you're right on Suter, he's like the 9th or 10th option in relief and 7th option in the rotation right now(roughly)...but with injuries he's logged quite a few innings in both spots. When we are fully healthy, he's not on the 25. I actually meant Peralta should be sent down before the element of surprise is gone, but pretty much everything except super-2 considerations and service time applies to Suter as well. I don't think everyone is going to be healthy enough to not have Suter on the 25 for much of the season though. That would be extremely fortunate with regard to health.

If it meant Suter never started another game then I’d be fine with it... Suter won't have to start much once guys get healthy, regardless of what they do with Freddy. Personally I think they should send him back down when they can because I think he could get hit pretty hard once teams have more film on him and have seen him before, and the Brewers can't afford to endure the "bad Fiers" stage with him.

I guess super-2 status could be a big concern with keeping Peralta up?

You can coach them to create more good 3-point shots all day and it won't amount to jack because they're mostly too slow to get open and too slow to release it if they're not wide open. It would just increase the number of bad shots, which is why percentages would go down. It's in no small part a personnel issue. There's just not going to have good spacing until they get more Ryan Anderson/JJ Redick types and less impostors like Snell, Dellavedova, and Thon. I'll grant that some of them could maintain fairly high percentages in an offense with better spacing, but improved spacing is not going to come directly from them because they will never have that kind of effect on defenses. ETA: Bottom line, if most of these scrubs are your "shooters", then defenses are going to continue to be able to sag off of the arc and crowd Giannis in the paint, because they know they can usually still contest the 3's enough to keep from getting killed there. The Bucks need some real snipers in a bad way.

Can we close some other 2b threads and make this the main one? It seems we're discussing it in 4 different threads. Perez is one my "favorite" (read: least hated) options at 2b and he still has a faint bit of upside if he just gets out of the bottom 10% in terms of patience, like Segura and Gomez did after some terrible struggles at the plate for a few years. But he's needed in other roles as well, so you still need a lot of pa's from one of the other options.

How many different threads are we using to discuss 2B? It's a very weak position in MLB, even compared to normal low standards for middle infielders. I don't see the point of complaining about it when nobody has offered a good alternative. Braun and Santana are the guys we should be talking about because they've been putrid and, more importantly, it wouldn't be as hard to upgrade. Phillips should easily be able to OPS over .700 (Braun's at a whopping .703 - still the best hitter on the team when healthy) and be a much better defender than either of them. Heck, Choi would probably be better. And outfielders might be easier to acquire in a trade.

Microcosm of the season right there. Cain and Yelich do their part, Braun blows it, Shaw and Aguilar (or Thames) do their part, bottom of the order blows it. Stars and scrubs doesn't work in baseball. Still blame the players more than the front office but would like to see more balance.

Good post. Cain is very rare IMO in the sense that I don't usually support deviating from the vision, but he's good enough to justify it. Plus he showed no signs of declining athleticism last year and played a career high # of games. I still say guys like Orf are probably just as much "known trash" as Sogard and Blanco, and Drake was probably their 11th or 12th priority as a reliever but held on because Boone was hurt and Suter had to start for most of the year. So I just can't complain at all about having a few bad players under the circumstances. I'm glad they've given guys like Drake, Sogard, and Villar a chance to replicate some recent success (Villar's 2016, Sogard's first half last year, Drake's good periphals and career LOOGY numbers). I think that's what they should be doing with the last 3-5 spots on the roster until they have clearly better realistic options without paying a premium.

Great post. Could not be more spot on. Thank god the front office hasn't shown the same impatience as many fans here. If people could just get it out of their heads that they're supposed to be one of the 3 or 4 best teams in the NL at this point in their development, while still having one of the lowest payrolls and one of the best minor league systems, they'd realize what a great job the front office doing. It's a testament to their scouting that they found so many players capable of having one or two career years and developing as an asset, but people are actually holding it against them by expecting it to continue. It's not their fault that not all those guys are going to be able to repeat those career years; it's to be expected. Honestly if fewer players had had random career years, people would understand how much they've improved the team. The fluke quality of last year has caused many to have completely unfair expectations and ignore all the progress they continue to make. Last year they played above their heads and ended up with a worse win % than they have now, arguably playing quite a bit below their heads. That means the front office improved the team quite a bit, actually.