coolhandluke121

2 years younger than Vogt with more than double the career WAR and better defense. I'm beating that offer by several million 10 times out of 10 if given the chance. I hope the Brewers at least considered it. I think the catcher spot could be an unexpected weakness this year.

I would stay the eff away from Yu at this point. It doesn't seem like he wants to be a Brewer. I don't trust situations like that. Of course everyone tries to get the most money, but I want every indication that a player is going to stay motivated and hungry after getting his last big contract in his 30's and I'm not getting that from Yu. I'd much rather give that money to Arrieta because I would trust him to be pissed at not getting paid like Greinke and also looking forward to pitching against the Cubs because they decided they had other priorities.

1. Arrieta 2. Cobb 3. Lynn 4. Darvish (Brewers would probably be his last choice and I don't trust him on his last big deal after that kind of disappointment) 5. Having Jared from Subway do bad things to my inner child and posting video of it online. 6. Trading Santana + Burnes + more top-20 prospects for Archer I don't trust Archer at all. It always seems like just a matter of time before teams start crushing him. I kind of get that K-Rod feel from him. They're almost all bad bets value-wise IMO, but Archer is the worst IMO.

Re: Santana, you just have to wait for more teams to be really interested in him. They might have lost some leverage if they were working primarily with one team, but the true leverage will come from a bidding war.

Right. Because someone has to go. If it's not Santana, it's someone else. And yea I agree on Jesus too could easily be a regression guy too. That's something I've said on both Thames/Jesus the whole time. Put them together in a hard platoon and I think they're 'fine' though. Of course if Braun can do almost everyday (at least Braun's version of it) it's an upgrade though. I would hardly even keep Aguilar even if Santana was traded. Braun and Thames can play 1b and Braun/Phillips can platoon in right. Broxton has options to be a backup cf and Perez can back up both corner outfield spots reasonably well. Vogt can play 1b if Thames is hurt. I think Thames is a regression candidate and needs more days off. He's not good enough to be a full platoon player and get 120 starts. He needs to stay mentally fresh to avoid slipping back into old habits at the plate. He even asked for more days off when he started slumping in May and June last year, so even he knows he's a part-time player. So I could easily see Braun getting ~40 starts against rhb's at 1b, which leaves Thames as a valuable bench bat on those days but certainly does not leave much room for Aguilar on the roster.

Sorry you all, this went off topic, although it is about trickle-down effects after the Santana situation is resolved.

Now go take out Aguilar's 6 p.a.'s at Coors and see what you get. I'm not making Thames out to be more than he is. I'm asking people to stop making Aguilar out to be more than he is, which is significantly worse than Thames (and with Braun at first, also a much worse fit) despite the fact that Thames himself is not a very good player.

But in this situation he wouldn’t have to. Again, Braun would be the everyday first baseman. Notice how TMwiese referred to Walker as “your insurance”. If the idea is to platoon Braun then obviously you keep Thames ahead of Aguilar. No, he specifically said he would take the $5m saved on Thames so they could afford Walker. ETA: My bad, I guess the notion of Braun being an everyday player is so unthinkable that it didn't even register that somebody wouldn't think they'd need another 1b who can OPS close to .900, at least against rhp's.

The fact that he's an LHB should be a HUGE part of the argument. It's a little more than just a tiebreaker, but it's not even a tie to begin with. They have a combined 10,000 professional p.a.'s. Comparing Aguilar's fluke 2017 in 400 p.a.'s to Thames's MLB numbers in 700 p.a.'s in several partial seasons long ago is extremely disingenuous. You could make a case for keeping Thames instead of Aguilar even if Braun was an LHB, just because LHB ph's have value too because most relievers are rhp's. There's really no comparison.

I had that exact same thought at one point but I doubt Walker can produce at a Thames level at 1b even in a platoon. I also kind of want to see if Sogard and Villar can have a decent year at 2b. I think they will both fall roughly at the halfway point between their last two respective seasons, which could be almost as good as Walker considering his age. I'm buying the explanation that Sogard had a nagging knee problem and the surgery helped him. Villar is too talented to repeat last year, although I do think people as dense as him find ways to screw themselves over eventually no matter what. I think Thames/Braun at 1b is perfect for the team. They should be able to find someone like Aguilar with options and keep him in AAA in case of injuries. He's basically a Jason Rogers/Matt Clark if you go off his career numbers, and those guys are a dime a dozen.

I certainly deserve that. I was trying, but I can't respect the opinion that Aguilar is on a level with Thames or, god forbid, should be a guy they choose ahead of him. I think there's a difference between respecting a person and respecting their opinion. It's kind of a "love the sinner, hate the sin" thing. People are entitled to respect but they're not at all entitled to have their opinions respected if they've not well-supported, and when you're on a forum like this, you're basically defined by your opinions.

Eh, I can't realistically see any better way to spend $5m than on a guy like Thames to platoon with one of the most injury-prone RHB's in all of a baseball. Morrison or Duda would probably cost close to $10m and get more years than Thames, who is still a pretty good value. I would probably put the over/under on Aguilar's OPS against rhp's at .770 or so, which is abysmal.

As for Santana, it's just a game of chicken. It's inevitable that TB and Cleveland would try to take advantage of the Brewers' increased desire to trade him. Whether they are successful is up to the Brewers though. They just have to be patient. The Brewers just need two teams who are very serious about acquiring him. That way those teams have to compete with each other regardless of the Brewers' situation. If TB was the only team chasing Santana, they had all the leverage anyway. It may very well be that they were the only team with a really good offer for Santana, in which case pulling back might just indicate that they realized they didn't have to offer that much. That seems like the most likely explanation. Teams figure out stuff like that. They might have to wait for spring training. I'm fine with that. If anything, it would ensure that Braun takes a ton of reps at 1b, which might not happen if Santana was traded now and Braun was slated to take over in RF again.

I really wanted to side with you on the whole argument above, but it doesn't help when you suggest things like this. With all due respect, the notion of trading Thames and keeping Aguilar undermines your credibility completely. Thames is a much better player than Aguilar and they need an LHB 1b. Aguilar has been about two tiers below Thames for their entire careers, including the minors, and is a total waste of a roster spot. With Braun at 1b, the idea of keeping a one-dimensional RHB who can only play 1b (and barely, at that) is mind-numbingly foolish. If you think he can actually fetch some prospects, then maybe you'd have a point, but we've seen in free agency that guys with his profile are hardly even neutral assets. Teams could easily sign Morrison or Duda or Lind for less than 8 figures without giving up anything. The idea of Aguilar being on a level with Thames because he had one good season as a part-time player is stuck in people's heads for some reason and they can't get it out despite all logic to the contrary. It's the worst Milwaukee sports case of collective insanity since thinking Brandon Jennings was a future superstar.

Great point. I had forgotten about that. I'm glad to see HH saying that the Brewers seem to be chasing guys with better speed and defense and lower k%. I think those things are kind of intangibles right now in the sense that they're probably under-valued by the most common analytics. I think you get good value from guys like that and I've been hoping for this change for a while. We had the opposite of that for a long time in the Melvin era and the team was unsurprisingly about .500 in that era despite him inheriting a sick farm system and some marketable big league talent as well.

I'm not so sure it's even a huge step back right now. I think Mejia will be better than Pina this year. I think Salazar is A LOT better than Suter, Guerra, Gallardo, or whoever else is slated to be the 5th starter right now, and it would make it less necessary to take a huge gamble on Yu or Arrieta. If Shaw duplicates this year's success, then it is probably a step back for now, but not necessarily a huge one. This would be a great move for later while not being all that bad right now, and they'd still have a chance to sign Moustakas instead of a starting pitcher. He would probably be a better value at a cheaper price. I also think it's misguided to imply that "all-in" is their guiding principle for this offseason. They've shown that they love to jump on good-value moves instead of being too married to a "when do we go for it" timeline. Put it this way - you probably wouldn't have even gotten Salazar for Santana + Shaw at this time last year, and you would have been laughed off the phone if you asked for Mejia. The idea that it's no longer a good idea because Santana and Shaw both had a good year sure looks like a bad case of recency bias.

Sorry but I'm kind of shocked that it wouldn't even be a difficult decision for some people. With all due respect, you're being a homer if you can't see the value you'd be getting in a Shaw/Santana for Mejia/Salazar deal. Shaw is far from a lock to be our 3b of the future. Santana is a better bet to duplicate last year's success, but you'd probably be selling high on him as well. You're talking about arguably the #1 prospect in all of baseball at the hardest position to fill, one which also happens to be the position of greatest need for the Brewers. Honestly there's a good chance Pina and Vogt will completely bomb this year, as they're both over 30. Mejia could be so much better than them by default that it could make up the difference between Shaw and a replacement level player like Perez at 3b, let alone the boost to the rotation from Salazar. And you'd still have a chance to sign a guy like Moustakas if you really wanted to. It makes me wonder what you would have said about trading Villar and Braun for Mejia last year, or trading McGehee and Hart for a top-3 prospect after McGehee's breakout year in 2009, which was eerily similar to Shaw's year in terms of age and trajectory. In both cases, you have a similar dynamic of guys who aren't really safe bets to duplicate their recent success, one of whom also had defensive issues at one of the easiest positions to play, and both at positions where it's not that hard to find replacements. I know it would be hard to take a potential step back this year, but it would be too good of a value to pass up for me.

Then what, sign Moustakas? I don't like him much but maybe. I'd probably give Perez a shot. I think the long-term boost at catcher and getting a solid starter would be worth the price. I don't expect Pina and Vogt to be productive again this year. I think Shaw is a major regression candidate. When you're getting an elite prospect at the position of greatest need by far in the entire organization, it could very well be a matter of giving up two $5's for a $10 and a couple $1's. I guess I should have expected a lot of resistance here though. I've been spoiled by the realgm Brewers board, where they rarely overrate their own players. I'm sure front office professionals around the league would tell you it's a pretty fair trade, if not slightly in favor of the Brewers.

Would anyone trade Santana and Shaw for Mejia + Salazar? I would be a wreck if I had to make that decision. I think I'd probably close my eyes, take a deep breath, and pull the trigger.

With Arrieta and Darvish likely to "settle" for contracts that are a better value than Greinke's, this doesn't make much sense. Arizona would have to pay a lot of his salary, but then it doesn't make sense for them. They are a playoff team and I expect them to continue to be a top-10 team. I don't think people realize how much core talent they have because they had such a crazy 2016 where almost everyone was hurt and/or had numbers way below what their career norms project to be. Now if it's part of a larger deal involving Santana for some of their best prospects, then it could be that rare trade between win-now teams that makes sense for both teams. That way you take care of the Santana dilemma instead of making your move to soon without knowing how the outfield chips will fall.

Plus we need as much Jesus on this team as we can get to make a run! The next person who gives an even remotely rational reason for thinking last season's stats are a valid indicator of his future performance will be the first.

Just to be clear, are some of you suggesting that the Brewers actually have to pay Braun, and that the $20m they're paying him is $20m less they can spend on other ways to improve the team? If so, I'd like you to cite your sources, because it sure sounds like one of those convoluted financial scams that anyone can make up because it's so complicated that people won't even bother to double-check.

Where do you see that Broxton doesn't have options? You're right about the guys fighting for remaining spots. I am convinced they will trade an outfielder, but I still think it's 3 spots to fight over because they will often roll with 13 pitchers. They have the versatility in the lineup and the need for an extra reliever. Broxton in AAA and Aguilar traded solves everything as long as Braun can play 1b. I prefer to trade Santana but I understand it could be Phillips depending on the market.

That's what I'm afraid of. It's unreasonable to expect an OPS much above .800 even if he does platoon. That's terrible for a guy who does nothing at replacement level except hit a few long balls. Let's not waste 3 months of crucial pa's before admitting the obvious and realizing he's another Matt Clark/Jason Rogers, as the available evidence overwhelmingly suggests. I'm okay with Braun in RF and Thames/Aguilar at 1b if and only if Santana and Phillips are needed together to fetch a terrific young player at a position of great organizational need. Mejia would work.

You're missing one of the most important variables in the equation. Their pitching staff would clearly benefit from an extra reliever, and if Braun can play 1b, it would be a waste of a roster spot to keep Aguilar. That extra reliever is going to add more value to the team than playing Braun in RF over Phillips and giving Aguilar ~50 starts. Perez's versatility makes him a lock for a roster spot ahead of Aguilar. They had 13 pitchers at times last year and also nearly turned their season around and made the playoffs by using the bullpen all the time in September instead of a traditional 6 inning starter + 2-3 relievers plan for every game. Their rotation is once again not going to give you a ton of innings so it makes sense to use a lot of relievers. I'm confident that's what they're looking for and it's the right move.