areacodes

Keep AJ Brown in my lineup despite being sick (says he’ll play) or move Cole Beasley into that spot (picked him up yesterday when Brown changed to Questionable as I had an open roster spot)? Not a huge fan of Beasley but concerned that Brown might not get much run if he isn’t feeling the best and also has a bit of a hammy issue that has bothered him this year.

How often is the first wild card team going to be head and shoulders better than the second team like this year? Is it fair to give the first wild card team a bigger advantage in the wild card round when the teams will typically be petty close? One thought I had was to have the wild card round be a maximum of two games. Home team needs to only win one game, road team needs to win two. Probably too big of an advantage for one team and too untraditional to be put into place.

From Silverstein on Jaire’s injury:

I know on the first one when he crossed the line the RT flinched, so that would be an offsides even if he got back. the 2nd one shouldn't have been, but ultimately didn't matter. I went back and rewatched since it is halftime and the RT only moves his hand to point after the DL is back across the line. I’m pretty sure the ref had him as offsides and not because the OL moved. Not surprising since the refs apparently can’t tell what is or isn’t offsides today.

Unless the o-line jumps, I’m pretty sure you are allowed to get back. First one, he got back and on the second one, Smith timed it very well and the ball was clearly snapped before he crossed the line. Like I said, just need somewhere to complain about it since I’m watching the game with my 7 month old and she don’t care about what I’m saying.

Neither of them ultimately mattered but both of the offsides calls on us have been crap. Just needed to complain somewhere about them.

Totally disagree. He has been an important part of the team, presumably with friendships in the bullpen and throughout the roster. He's a grown adult who was dragged before the cameras by Stearns to explain his injury. He was contrite and humiliated. He should be there to cheer on his teammates, and to serve as a daily reminder to them about self care. It stinks that he injured himself, but sending him to time out does nothing to support the 26 guys who will be competing. He'd also be a daily reminder - if they struggle in late innings - of what could have been. He should be in a press box, away from the team or at home. Less distraction, less chance for animosity. I guarantee there are multiple guys on the team that can't stand the sight of him right now. Unless the teammate couldn’t stand the sight of Devin Williams before this happened, I highly doubt the bolder is the case. I’d also be willing to bet that his teammates have been a lot more forgiving of this situation than many fans and posters in this thread. I can’t imagine they are calling for him to be traded in the off-season or not allowed in the state of Wisconsin, the clubhouse or on the bench because of it. I’m sure his teammates are disappointed it happened (and lots probably told him it was really stupid) and are unsure of what type of effect it’ll have on the bullpen and our chances at a World Series. However, in my opinion, it seems more likely that they’ll want him around and are talking about how they’ll pick up the slack with him being out.

Padres are already eliminated but the Phillies are technically still alive. I’d like to see either the Reds or Phillies win tonight and with Cards losing. That way any type of celebration, if the Cardinals clinch tomorrow, is before an early game on Thursday. Would still be fun if they clinch after losing the game because the other teams lost.

Not according to your link. It has the Brewers at 11.4% (fourth best behind Dodgers, Astros and White Sox) and the Braves are at 7.1%.

How was that not intentional grounding on the play before the TD? Didn’t make it back to the LOS and no eligible receiver anywhere close to the ball.

https://www.mlb.com/video/jesus-luzardo-in-play-out-s-to-lane-thomas-nxis2c

How many times have teams not blow that type of lead? You keep point to the rare instances that it happens and everybody else has acknowledged that. We’ve just been saying it isn’t likely to happen, not that it had never happened or isn’t possible. I also think that losing a lead in the wild card race is different than division because you have more teams to compete against, more teams that could get hot enough to make it matter if you're team starts to lose. Do you think the rest of us here aren’t planning on watching and hoping the Brewers win the division just because we feel the odds of that not happening are rare?

The Bucks will be playing on Xmas - from your link. Looks like MrTPlush beat me to it.

Has anybody said the Brewers are a lock for the post season? I know Peavey finally said it is “statistically over” but pretty much everybody (including him before the “statistically over” statement) has indicated that there is a small chance the Brewers could still blow it but it’ll be super rare or a historical collapse. I don’t think it is likely the Brewers will lose the division but I’m not going to celebrate anything until our magic number is 0 and we’ve got an x, y or z next to our name in the standings.

That is a little misleading. Yes, teams with 6-9 game leads in August have only blown those leads twice in the last 20 years… but teams with a 7-9 game lead have blown those leads zero times in the past 20 years and haven’t blown a lead as large as the Brewers in 26 years. I’d say that is essentially “super rare” and definitely not “far from ‘super rare’” as you claimed. It is misleading that you picked out the first sentence of that post and ignored the rest. There are multiple teams in the last 26 years that have lost leads of 7 games or more later than August 15 in either division or wild card races. In addition to the 2007 Mets, there’s the 2011 Red Sox who on August 25 had a record of 80-50, led their division, and had a 9 game lead in the wild card race. They managed to miss the playoffs. A lot of this disagreement seems to be a matter of how people react to probabilities. Some people consider a 90-95% probability a sure thing and others consider it a good bet, but not something to take to the bank just yet. I, and a lot of others who have contributed to this thread, are in the latter category. I picked out the first two sentences from your post because you were using misleading data to confirm your previously stated position that it wasn’t super rare for a team to blow a 7.5 game lead at this point in the season. As was stated, in the last 26 years it hasn’t happened once. You then decided to focus on a different set of data (teams that built their lead higher and then collapsed later) but it was still incomplete because you only told us of a few times it happened without looking at how often it didn’t happen. Also, please point out where anybody has said the division is a sure thing. From what I recall, the people disagreeing with you are saying it is extremely likely (not guaranteed) they’ll win the division while you go about finding “super rare” scenarios that prove they could still lose. Just enjoy the ride.

So, if we just look at the snapshot of August 15, the success rate of teams with division leads of 6-9 games is a little over 90%. Not surprising. That is a little misleading. Yes, teams with 6-9 game leads in August have only blown those leads twice in the last 20 years… but teams with a 7-9 game lead have blown those leads zero times in the past 20 years and haven’t blown a lead as large as the Brewers in 26 years. I’d say that is essentially “super rare” and definitely not “far from ‘super rare’” as you claimed.

This was good. I agree. Some want to be shielded no matter how good we are doing. Teams gaining or losing 7 or 8 games in the standings over the last quarter of the season is far from “super rare”. The fact that it has happened several times involving the Brewers in their history should be enough to establish that. A lot can happen to a team in 7 weeks including major slumps, injuries, and unforseeable hot streaks by opponents. If you want to assume the Brewers are going to win the division, feel free. But I don’t understand the compulsion to ridicule others who take a more cautious approach. How often do teams lose a 7-8 game lead over the last quarter of the season?

romano cleared outright waivers. he declined the assignment with class aaa nashville and is now a free agent. I assume he will be pitching for the Dodgers before the weekend is over. He can join Bickford, Knebel, McKinney and Jimmy Nelson (i know, he's injured). And Bobby Wahl.

Sure about that? That was him the other night wasn't it. I edited my post since the image didn’t show up for me, but he hit a double against Nogowski.

And Reyes couldn't hit a position player. Sure about that? I’m pretty sure he hit a double.

He deepens the pen, yes., and the option players can come back this season or next to help out. We agree. And yet you are totally overlooking his stats against lefties the last two seasons! That is the real story…. Whip under 1, ERA around 2. Stats against righties are down right awful if you take out his work against lefties. Loogy. How is a .677 OPS against him “down right awful”? Those were his numbers from last year against righties.

What happened here? I lost control of my TV to children for awhile and missed it.

Anything positive to say about them just taking the lead? Look a couple of messages up So you did… my bad.

Anything positive to say about them just taking the lead?

Can someone post the link to that twitter account that shows how the umpires do? Here you go: LINK