HarveysWBs

Thankfully, I don’t live in Chicagoland, but nevertheless still solidly in “Bear country” to the extent that I’ve endured more than enough mouth from the knuckle-dragging majority the last couple of months. After an early childhood of Bear fan obnoxiousness, it has been a rather lovely thirty year silence (Cubs fans notwithstanding, of course) and I’d dearly like it to resume. Heres how I think this one *should* go: If (and this is a huge if) Love, Tom, Rhyan, Watson, Reed, and Jacobs all stay upright, there’s more than enough firepower there to put up points against a defense that isn’t a great run D and plays a lot of man coverage. Wind was a worry earlier this week, but if it stays in the forecasted 10-20mph range, I wouldn’t expect a meaningful limiting of the vertical pass game. LaFleur and Love (and Jacobs in the red zone) need to get theirs, and there’s no excuse not to. Score 28+ in regulation and I think it’s probably a done deal. But this is what I *fear*: The Bears can win, and it’s not hard to see how. In-game injuries aside, if Love has an off day, if the receivers get focus drops, if a couple fluke turnovers happen—the Packers can certainly beat themselves. But the Bears can also force the issue by using their greatest strength (running) against Green Bay’s most glaring vulnerability (interior defensive line). That may not be enough for the Bears to pull away, but as we know, their formula is to keep it close late and roll the dice. If it’s a one-score game with under seven to play, and it once again comes down to Johnson can’t hide Williams and Hafley can’t hide his corners—who wins that matchup? First time HC and first time QB in the playoffs probably shouldn’t have an edge, but I wish I could report I was more confident. Bottom line, I’ve become conditioned to expect maximal pain. What would that look like in this year’s playoffs? I suppose if the Packers somehow made the Super Bowl and lost, I’d be really bummed because of how hard the franchise has been grinding to get back there. But more realistically, losing this game would just hurt more than in Seattle/LA/Philly/SanFran or anywhere else. I want this one bad, so I suspect I’m not going to get it. But then again, I did get to see the Cubs fly the L, so there’s just enough hope there…to make it hurt even more.

Harbaugh is a very good coach, maybe even a great one. But setting aside the fact that I think LaFleur is all but assured to return barring a major breakdown in contract negotiations, I don’t think Harbaugh is right for where this team is currently. In his favor, Harbaugh brings a rock solid reputation. I’d wager that he would probably clean up some of the penalty and focus issues we’ve seen recently, and almost certainly improve special teams (though the fact that he got fired partially because his kicker missed a gimme is kind of ironic). This might be enough to convince me if our team had a late-career, all-time QB in place (like mid to late 30s Favre or Rodgers) and we just needed a steady hand at the helm. But if a change must be made, this team, which is still fairly young and still needs Love to grow to reach his ceiling, needs an offensive mind. Harbaugh might get lucky and find one to be his OC (assuming the team doesn’t cheap out and foist somebody like Steno on him as OC and play-caller, which would fit their track record with assistant coaches). But if he chooses good assistants, they would constantly be poached, and we’d be back at square one repeatedly. The obvious answer is to go find the next great offensive mind and just make him the HC, which keeps the most important phase in the game in great shape. Harbaugh just isn’t right for this team’s life cycle, in my estimation. He’s like (an admittedly better) John Fox, who you hire if you have Peyton Manning, but that isn’t our situation. It just doesn’t look like a fit to me.

What a stupid, fantastic fourth quarter of a football game. Unbelievable stuff.

Oh yeah, I'm definitely not making any record predictions here or anything. I just think that should be a fun set of opponents. Certainly several measuring-stick matchups to be found in there, I would expect.

That looks like a fun slate. Health is paramount, as it always is, and of course there will be one or two of this year's playoff teams that take a nosedive, and a couple bad teams that surge. But that home slate especially looks really exciting, particularly if Willis ends up in Miami.

Yeah as gross as it is, I imagine they flip the script on the North’s performance last year. I wouldn’t be shocked if all of them win their first game, and do it fairly handily.

It would seem so.

I had to chuckle imagining Aaron Rodgers on the couch tonight. He had to be thinking, “man, I’m 42 years old, haven’t played for Green Bay in three years, and I’m in a completely different conference, but somehow, the Packers defense is still letting me down.”

Regardless of the injury circumstances, but five straight losses in a “all-in” season, with the last one coming in Chicago, should probably get a coach canned. I’m more inclined to defend him than most here, it seems, but I’m not sure I can defend that.

I’ve seen some bad Packers defensive performances in my time. I don’t remember a half that was quite that bad. Maybe against SF in the 2019 playoffs, who also just ran at will. The Packers can always find a surprising way to lose. But, I don’t care about any of that anymore. Malik looks good, when he’s not being sabotaged by his o-line. Good for him.

I fully intend to keep the promise to myself that I would no longer have any positive expectations for this year's team. So I'm not going to focus on the fact that the Packers are favored at home while the Bears will likely lose, setting up yet another chance to take over the division next week. No, that is fool's gold. Instead, I will be thinking about QB's this weekend. First, I'm just concerned about Love's health. A concussion is bad even if one recovers quickly, and not clearing protocol this week is not just troublesome for the Packers' short-term prospects, but also raises at least some small concerns about Love's long-term well-being. Obviously, we're just wishing him the best. As for Willis, tomorrow night's game will be a test unlike anything he has seen thus far. In none of his previous starts have the stakes been higher than they are about to be, and he is facing an opponent that is both more motivated (at least theoretically--it seems there may be some questions about the Baltimore locker room esp. Harbaugh vs. Jackson and whatever is going on there) and more talented than the ones he has faced before. Plus, he is likely to be physically compromised due to injury and illness in ways he was not in his previous appearances. I am keenly interested in seeing how Willis responds to all this. As an aside, I absolutely despise any hint of "Willis should be the starter" discourse, so I hesitate to bring this up, but I do hope they find something in the red zone tomorrow with him playing, and also wonder if it would be prudent to develop a red zone package that features him either under center or utilized in a more creative way. That could be a very useful wrinkle in the playoffs for a team that could use about as many wrinkles as a linen jacket stuffed in an overhead compartment. But, that is beginning to sound too much like a positive expectation... Long term, barring something horrible, Willis is obviously too good (and will be too expensive) to just be Jordan Love's parachute, but I suspect he is also not good enough to succeed in the types of places that are likely to give him a shot (Jets, Cardinals, etc.). As such, he probably peaks as a Ryan Fitzpatrick-type journeyman who spawns a couple more minor legends about himself as a bandaid option, but won't ever find a spot that can help him flourish. Cards on the table, I think his best chance would be in Miami if they cut bait with Tua, and he could be a fun follow in a place like that. So anyway, I hope to achieve my goal of being entertained but not otherwise affected by this ridiculous sport.

Managed to be less sucky and disappointing than the Lions this year…woo… Hang the banner.

Losing to Bosmer and his sub-10 yards passing with the season on the line is a horrific look for the Lions. This is a season of truly terrible football in the North. My goodness.

I agree with @HarryDoyle about Doubs being on the hands team, and came here to say exactly that: how does a guy with his history get to be in that spot? He was obviously gun-shy, as his brief glance up to find the tacklers before he could secure the ball would indicate. I feel for the guy, but he should be out of the league. I think (or maybe just hope) that in twenty years, it will be unconscionable that we as a society allowed and encouraged people to destroy their own brains for our amusement. Losing provides clarity. Today more than most days, it is clear to me that this sport is a dumb one. Attaching any kind of emotional investment in it makes about as much sense as declaring you are a fan of a professional craps player, since that is about as much randomness as this sport involves. Some players and a precious few coaches seem to tilt the table, but for everybody else, we’re cheering for a dice roll and then arguing about how the player threw the dice. It’s all for the gamblers and panem et circenses now. We’re the idiots for caring about it.

I fear you may be right. But this is football and the variance is insanely high. Flipping Tom Coughlin got two rings out of Eli Manning and a dump truck full of horseshoes. Brian Billick got one for crying out loud. LaFleur can clear that bar. But the breaks are beating the boys, and so far, he’s never overcome the breaks.

LaFleur’s saving grace is his high floor. First, he is money with QBs, and this is indisputable. Matt Ryan, Rodgers, and now Love and even Malik Willis have been the best versions of themselves under his tutelage. Knowing every year you will get maximized QB play from QB1 and even QB2 is worth its weight in gold, because the opposite of that is the fastest way to become the Jets or the Browns. He never seems to lose the locker room, and the message doesn’t seem to get stale. But he’s being tested on that now. And his in-game foibles have been hashed enough and I won’t deny them. The question is, does Policy have anyone who he knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that can come in and either reset practically the entire coaching staff amidst a title window for the next two years and get a better shot with Love and Parsons than MLF gives you? Or, can you trust Hafley to captain this ship and find a wunderkind OC to continue Love’s maturation? If Policy isn’t absolutely certain about either prospect, pulling the ripcord on LaFleur now is basically malpractice. I don’t love this situation, but it is the reality. And I think you can still say he’s definitely a top 10 HC overall, and probably top 5 on his best day. Can he be that guy at least one time when it counts? Who knows. Not even Kyle Shanahan can claim as much for all the plaudits he gets.

I mean, it’s not really on him, but I think a message should probably be sent, and it’s enough cumulative underperformance at this point to more than justify it. The unit has cost us too many wins under his watch.

Nobody beats backup QBs like your Chicago Bears!

Who knows who that’s on, but backup Center who has been great and backup QB notch a critical exchange. Just feels like we’re running out of bullets

If Love misses next week?

Nah man, that’s emotional decision making after the fact. You go every time in that spot.

It’s stunning that our teams have been on the losing end of two of the most consequential botched onside kick coverages of the last decade+. I wanna hate ST coaches but that stuff isn’t on the coach. The players know exactly what they’re supposed to do, they just didn’t execute.

Our corners suck

Defense looks like they’ve quit

I despise special teams. Always and forever. It’s a curse