JoeyWiemerTruther

Pretty much any pitcher is an injury risk, Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn included. And looking at most of Chacin's career, including last year, indicates that he is better than "mediocre at best". It's likely that the team is going to use 9-10 starters at least this year, so building depth is not a bad thing. Unfortunately the Brewers are likely never going to be in the position to have a big-money starter in every spot in the rotation. But if they could sign Arrieta or Cobb, I feel that their 1-4 of Arrieta/Cobb, Anderson, Davies and Chacin has the potential to match up with pretty well with any other team's 1-4. But I mean, if this is the realistic expectation you have for the current rotation, signing Cobb or Arrieta isn't going to make too much difference, because what you are saying is they'd be surrounding Arrieta or Cobb with injury-prone crap. Chacin isn’t anything special, sorry. That’s why they got him at such a cheap contract. He’s a good bottom of the rotation option for a good team but shouldn’t be in the top 3. He did not pitch well in 2014 and 2016 at all. I’d be happy if he was the #5 starter. Anderson or Davies could get hurt as could anyone but if Anderson or Davies gets hurt isn’t it better to have to rely on Cobb or Arrieta than it would be to rely on Miley, Gallardo or Guerra, if you’re trying to actually make the playoffs that is?

Guerra, Miley and Gallardo all had ERAs over 5 last year, sorry if I don’t have high hopes for any of them to perform better than last year but there’s good reason to be skeptical. Suter isn’t built to go long into games. Woodruff and Wilkerson are very unproven. Chacin is average but nothing too special. As it stands, 3 of those 7 will get a rotation spot to start the year and who knows if Anderson and Davies get hurt in addition to Nelson already being hurt, forcing one of those other to pitch. Please sign Cobb/Arrieta. If the players we have are what we have at the start of the season and they perform well and get to the playoffs I will gladly eat my words but I just don’t have a lot of confidence in that group outside of Anderson and Davies. Best options for the rotation on Opening Day looks like Anderson Davies Chacin Woodruff Suter/Miley That group is alright but not something that makes me think playoff team. Again what if Anderson, Davies, Chacin or Suter get hurt? I don’t wanna rely on a bunch of guys who had ERAs over 5 last year. Getting Jimmy back should help but who knows if he’ll even be the same, and there’s 1/3 a season of production we won’t get from him at the start anyways.

Nelson is already hurt for 1/3 of this season, and he was a big part of the reason we even contended last year. Anderson was spectacular last year but I’m still not convinced he can replicate that performance because he has never had a season as good as last year. Davies had a great year but he could also fall off a bit. Anderson and Davies also could get hurt as evidenced by this oblique issue Davies already has before the season has even started. You’re telling me you think a rotation of those 2 who could get hurt plus a mediocre at best Chacin, completely unproven Woodruff and Wilkerson, guys who had terrible 5+ ERA seasons last year in Miley, Gallardo and Guerra, and a guy who had a great season last year but is probably better for long relief and also can’t go very deep into games in Suter? Stearns thinks those rotation options can get to the playoffs? Am I missing something here? Burnes won’t be available til mid season at the earliest according to Counsell but there is a need for a good starter right now, not midseason. Some people are saying that this is only year 1 of a 5 year window we have opened up for success so who cares if we don’t go all in and sign a TOR arm this offseason, but my question is why would we waste 1 year when it’s clear that teams like the Brewers will always have limited windows for success? Why not go all in for real and make the most of those 5 years instead of giving all that money to Cain whose best years out of his 5 year deal will most likely be this year and next year, 1 of which could easily be wasted this year by this very unproven and mediocre looking rotation? I really hope Stearns is just posturing and will sign 1 or both of Cobb and Arrieta because we need a guy like 1 of those 2 to even have a chance at the playoffs imo. A trade is also an option but you can sign one of those 2 without giving up prospects.

My prediction: they don’t sign anybody even though i want them to. I hope I’m wrong but the more time that passes the less confident I am. I feel like Arrieta is too expensive for Stearns and Cobb is cheap enough where I feel like if they really wanted to sign him they easily could have by now. We’ll see and I hope they sign Cobb and also make a trade for a TOR arm w/o giving up Burnes, Hiura, or Lutz.

I see how Braun and Thames will platoon but I’m still thinking about Thames start to the season last year and thinking he should play every day even though he played pretty bad the rest of the season, but I’m having trouble seeing how there’s enough starts for all 4 outfielders to get 140-150 each if Braun is spending probably 50% of his PT in left field. I do like your point that it is likely Braun gets hurt again and then the lineup makes more sense and it would be nice to have just as good of an outfield if he were to get hurt. I would still prefer the outfield to be Braun, Yelich, Cain with Phillips and Hernan filling in when needed and Santana moved in a package for a big time pitcher, but that seems a lot more unlikely now. I really think they need to add a big time pitcher or they won’t get any where in terms of postseason success this year unless some of the lower rotation arms have magic years, and if not then you basically wasted one of Cain’s good contract years before he inevitably declines.

I really want this to happen but don’t think it does at this point without giving Tampa Bay both Hiura and Burnes which I would rather not do. Santana unfortunately isn’t likely a realistic option to give Tampa Bay either because they don’t need him now. I don’t think this trade happens.

In addition to Nelson being out probably about 1/3 of the season and then probably not being as good as he was last year, Anderson and Davies had career years and could easily regress as well. Neither of them had full seasons as good as last year before.

Yeah McCutchn is on the decline anyways, but I really don’t get the Cole trade at all if they’re looking to contend. He doesnt have much left on his contract but still. Did they ever try to extend him?

Sorry lol I’ll edit it. Had too many flowing thoughts

As it stands right now I’m not too hopeful the rotation as it stands can go deep into the postseason, Nelson is missing at least 1/3 of the season, Anderson has been spectacular but he could easily come back down to Earth and be an average pitcher in the blink of an eye, same with Davies, Chacin is a lower end of the rotation arm at best and Woodruff is still a big unknown. Anderson had never had a season as good as last season before, and I really hope he can continue that success but won’t be surprised if he regresses. Same with Davies. Nelson is coming off of a big injury and he could easily be the old Jimmy again. This doesn’t even factor in any other injuries 1 of these pitches could suffer in the season which is likely for at least 1 of the 3 at some point. Then you’ll have to rely on Woodruff who is still a big unknown, Chacin, and then Suter, Gallardo, Guerra, Miley or Wilkerson? That scares me a lot other than suter who I think is more suited for the bullpen anyways, although I really liked him in the rotation at the end of last season. I have very high hopes for Burnes and Counsell says he and Peralta could potentially help the team as early as mid season in his opinion, but he’s not gonna be in the rotation to start the season and he would likely have his own rookie struggles. I really wish Hader had a reliable 3rd pitch and was a realistic rotation option at this point, but he’s not and still a better option for the bullpen at the moment. I honestly think he’ll win a Cy Young one day if he adds a reliable third pitch and I’ve been fully on the Hader train since he was acquired from houston and started dominating the minors. I’m all for trading for Archer if they don’t have to give up Burnes, Hiura or Lutz, and with MLB.com releasing their Brewers top 30 prospects today, only Hiura, Burnes and Woodruff are in the top 100, meaning Ray and Ortiz are no longer in their top 100 and definitely couldn’t be a headliner for a big trade for a guy like Archer at this point, so it looks very unlikely a deal could be completed with including Hiura or Burnes which I would hate, and they don’t really have a need to add an outfielder like Domingo either anymore. I would like Arrieta but he seems expensive as with any boras client, but still a i think it’s worth it to go for him. Cobb is a lot cheaper so if the Brewers really want him I’m not sure what’s taking so long. If it’s losing the draft pick and a potential trade chip Stearns is worried about, that draft pick could easily turn into Corey Ray or Trent Grisham and disappoint big time in the minor leagues and turn into a low level trade chip anyways. How many first round picks actually play to their potential and become big league stars or even stars in the minors? Something like 20%? Worrying about losing a draft pick who probably wouldn’t amount to anything is silly imo. I would rather not wait until the deadline to trade for a pitcher because I really don’t like the Brewers low end rotation options as they are, especially factoring in that one of Anderson or Davies could easily get hurt in addition to Nelson already being hurt to start the year. My hope is something is done before the season starts and it’s getting to the point that it looks unlikely. I also don’t understand the lineup situation as there’s only 4 spots to play between 5 players in Braun, Thames, Yelich, Cain and Santana, meaning one of them won’t be playing every day and that is a big waste to me. I also really don’t like having to potentially rely on Villar at 2nd base as he was dreadful last year and lacks baseball IQ. I would much rather rely on Sogard and Hernan and have Villar gone. Hopefully this all gets sorted out soon, otherwise I don’t really understand the additions of the 2 big time outfielders which now gives us 4 outfielders who should be playing every day. Braun will still likely play mostly outfield but if he’s playing first then Thames isn’t playing and I’d personally rather have him be the every day guy with Braun, Yelich, Cain in the outfield. Santana is a terrible defensive outfielder despite his offensive success and he’s the one I’d trade, but it seems like everybody else on here has said that the Brewers seem to be overvaluing him compared to other teams and I agree. We’ll see what happens.

I disagree, they wouldn’t have trade away the face of their franchise in McCutchen as well as their ace in Cole if they weren’t tanking imo. This looks like nothing more than an appease the angry fans move to me.