True Blue Brew Crew

All but assuring a trade to come. Or a DFA or two at minimum.

FTFY

That article wasn't interesting in the least. Did the article completely omit the acquisitions via trade? I didn't see the names Urias, Narvaez, and Lauer mentioned at all. Just because they weren't signed as free agents doesn't mean they don't exist or that they can't be significant adds. Hard to take an article seriously when it ignores everything but free agency. Especially when the Brewers have been one of the most aggressive teams this winter. The reads as: the Brewers didn't blow their wad on one of the "big name" players we've heard of so it will be a wasted year of Yelich. Real deep thought there.

Ignore function, though it's useless if everyone is going to take the bait. How many years of "Braun at 3rd" and ridiculous trade proposals have to be posted by one person before people catch on.

Excuse me?? I have been around the game of baseball for well over 40 years. But thanks for the insult. You know what?? Adding those types of players, and only those types of players gives you little margin for error. IF and it's a BIG IF everything falls in to place all at the same time, it looks great. If it doesn't, and even one or two of them falter, that's enough to derail an entire season unless it's a perfect storm of other things that go exactly right and you can over come it. That's rare. I also don't like all the one year deals they hand out. The reason they do that I suspect is because they KNOW they are throwing darts and if they are lucky, they get one good year out of someone, and then they feel like geniuses. See Jhoulys Chacin as a perfect example. I would like to see them have a "core" of veterans that are there for more than one year or even two combined with some good young talent. THAT is a much more sustainable formula to me then what they do now. I mean if Anderson gets shelled most of the year, Urias hits .220 Lauer is inconsistent, Lindblom is nothing spectacular, the Crew will be in HUGE trouble. That's living on the edge, with almost ZERO margin for error. That's not going to work consistently. Eventually, the clock strikes midnight. My post wasn't directed at you or anyone specifically, yet you took it that way and I apologize for that. I guess a better way to put it would be for fans to take a step back in the offseason and then enjoy the product on the field. Under Stearns there have been numerous pleasant surprises. Maybe it's time to make a choice between "benefit of the doubt" and I'll save my complaining until I see how the team assembled fares. An example that comes to mind would be screaming and crying about not signing Alex Cobb and then criticizing the Wade Miley signing. Every winter is going to have budget-minded acquisitions like this. So for those so enraged at nugget-mining, maybe sit out the offseason if it generates so much angst.

This probably isn't the team for you if "big names" and statistics like HRs and batting AVG are the depth of your knowledge. Adding undervalued players with similar OPS+, WAR, wRC+ at a fraction of the cost of the marquee names is the Brewers only sustainable path to success. My only concern with Stearns is whether or not the Brewers will be able to keep him.

These two things are really what it boils down to. Giving themselves multiples options and doing so through strong assessment of the available low cost options. So when the throw these darts, their calculations have them standing slightly closer to the board but with more darts to throw so to speak. They could give themselves one really close throw to try and hit a bullseye by spending the entire budget on a proven ace. But that will be the one dart they can throw for say 3 or 4 years. What if even at close range, they miss? Alternatively, they can do their homework, give themselves multiple, yearly shots at the board and use their analytics to improve the aim with those darts.

Hasn't it been kind of understood that WAR is a pretty terrible, or at least inefficient way to judge reliever value? I know there are teams out there who don't value relief pitchers very highly. In this particular case, though, all it's going to take is finding one who does. It has to be tied primarily to innings pitched. And there is some truth to that. How valuable would a Hader be on the Orioles? It would be awesome to have him lock down 2 innings every 2-3 games. But what good is it if the team gives up 25 runs in the other 16-25 innings? You also have to factor that if Hader is traded, he can be somewhat replaced. His innings don't automatically go to a stiff. And when you're topping out at 80 innings, the difference between Hader and his replacement isn't nearly what people dream it to be. That's not to say there's no dropoff but it's more negligible than people realize and can be made up by improvement elsewhere on the roster. Think back to the dark ages of Brewers baseball. They always seemed to unearth a strong bullpen. But how far did that get them? Hader would have to be suitably replaced, and nothing is easy on a budget. But bullpen help is easier to find than an .800 ops bat or an innings eating, 3 times through starting pitcher. The way the Brewers tweak deliveries, change repertoires, and turn failed starters into lock down relievers, they probably feel confident they can find a suitable replacement for his innings if he's moved. It would still be a risk, but weighed against the possible return and the potential declining value of Hader, they may have calculated now is the opportune time to come out ahead by moving him.

OR the team could be projecting regression as more likely than improvement and combining that with a rising salary and declining years of control, think this is the most opportune time to trade him. The number of credible reports that the Brewers are fielding offers for him is a decent clue. It doesn't mean they're going to give him away for peanuts though. It doesn't even mean they trade him at all if their price isn't met. Though I bet their price is lower than many here want it to be. As valuable and irreplaceable as people want to claim Hader to be, he put up the same WAR as Zach Davies last year (2.9). In 2018 when he was at his most dominant, his WAR was 2.1. Not really sure where you're pulling this 5 WAR from. Unless you're combining two years in which case the return would have to be given the same consideration over two seasons.

ESPN Deportes reporter in Miami with over 11K followers on Twitter. Seems like a pretty good source to me.

I don't know the last time I saw so much hyperbole in one post. Well done.

#2? We must really be in rebuild mode if he is the second best pitcher we got. Lol You have a tendency to skip over key words so I'll post my comment again and highlight the one you seem to be missing... It's a big IF but IF Anderson has a healthy 2020 he could easily be the Brewers #2 behind Woodruff. For $5 million plus incentives, I'm not going to complain about this signing. I'm also not going to say "job done, let's head to camp" either. And that's not some outlandish statement considering Anderson's WAR last year (2.7) would have ranked, you guessed it, 2nd on the Brewers pitching staff last year behind Brandon Woodruff (2.9).

Good trick lumping clancy's projections in with everyone keeping a level head about how it might not be the end of the world if Hader is traded. And comparing the numbers of a three times through SP to a one time through RP is awfully disingenuous as well.

It's a big IF but IF Anderson has a healthy 2020 he could easily be the Brewers #2 behind Woodruff. For $5 million plus incentives, I'm not going to complain about this signing. I'm also not going to say "job done, let's head to camp" either.

That's great and I agree but says nothing about 2020. His absence from the Brewers roster would not be due to retirement or death, God forbid. His absence on the 2020 roster should mean reinforcements elsewhere on the roster. If not, then he shouldn't be moved. A Hader trade should bring win now pieces to bolster weaknesses, not prospects.

That would only work if clancy's belief that stats at any level and age translate to the same success rate at higher levels and the major leagues. It wasn't me trying to argue for a mythical factor called intimidation. That was you. But if we want to lend it any basis in reality, then we'd have to ponder how a more formidable lineup could intimidate opposing pitchers. There are many ways to achieve a desired result. Trading Hader won't automatically make the Brewers better, just like it's not guaranteed to make them worse. Their objective should be to come out of any Hader trade with a team that on the whole is better.

Eagerly awaiting the statistic that accurately measures "intimidation". And furthermore, I'd love to measure the offset of lost intimidation versus say a more well rounded lineup that scores more runs.

Over the last three years Hader ranks 2nd in fWAR (5.9), 1st in rWAR (7.2), 2nd in WPA (7.26), 7th in ERA- (57), 9th in FIP- (63) & 1st in K% (44.6). None of Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC or any other reliever in all of baseball, really, are likely to come anywhere close to replicating his production. Suter's 18 relief innings last year were amazing & integral to our success, but if he pitches all of 2020 out of the bullpen, the odds of him putting up 75+ innings with ERA-/FIP- marks around 60 & WAR/WPA marks of 2.5 (AKA an average Hader season), are extremely low. Would be beyond cool if it happened, but I certainly would bet the under. Yeah, picking up WAR elsewhere, such as the lineup, in the event Hader is moved seems much more plausible than expecting the existing pieces of a potential pen to pick up his slack. Doesn't mean they can't put together an effective relief squad, they'll just have to go about it a bit differently.

Just think what would've been possible if we hadn't traded Nowitzki for Traylor... No. Just no. Just stop saying that. It isn't true. NBA trades work differently. The trade was done. The Bucks never had Dirk, the same way Minnesota never had Ray Allen. It's amazing that this myth is still perpetuated by Wisconsin sports fans. It's been debunked so many times in the past couple decades that one would have to put their fingers in their ears every time its discussed to not know that Dirk was never going to be a Buck. http://bucksdiary.blogspot.com/2006/02/myth-that-bucks-traded-nowitzki.html Aside from never holding the rights to Nowitzki, even for a second, the truth also shows it was Dallas who actually took a risk of not getting Dirk. Nelson felt getting pick 19 was worth the risk of Nowitzki getting picked 7th or 8th. If Dallas knew Dirk was going to be a HOFer they would've stood pat and taken him themselves at pick 6.

Trading Hader doesn't mean the team can't compete in 2020. It all depends on the nature of the return. Saying otherwise is poor attempt at being dramatic. And it's not like there weren't dents in the armor last year. 7 blown saves, 2nd half ops against of .720, July ops against of .796, August ops against of .970, 15 HRs allowed. Despite those rough patches Hader was still a very good RP last year. But there is plenty of reason to contemplate the possibility that we've seen his best. Hader's fastball will likely be really hard to hit for a long time. It becomes easier for batters though when it's all he's able to throw for a strike. Striking out the side on nothing but heat is an awe-inspiring sight. But when a game-tying, solo HR is mixed in between strikeouts 2 and 3, it's not all that optimal for the team. And when every hitter starts going up there with the sole task of timing up that fastball, it's something more likely to occur going forward. It very well could be why the team is seriously entertaining trades. Not just because his trade value may never be higher or because he's about to get more expensive. But also perhaps because they see a good chance his performance is going to decline.

I saw one yesterday that floated Happ and Andujar for Hader, but that the Brewers would have to add a "package" of prospects because Hader wouldn't be enough Aside from the delusion of Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers fanbases, another phenomena I'm noticing is the sudden acceptance of Hader's old tweets as that of an immature teenager. Just need a rumor linking him to every team in the league and all of baseball will have forgiven him.

If someone said they either expect that return or that they'd be ok with it, please quote it so I can laugh at it along with you. Mainly some subtle shots at what I saw on “Yankees” twitter. Feel free to peruse that cesspool lol. I do find any idea of the Brewers “overvaluing” him laughable though. It’s just playing devil’s advocate as evidenced by previous deals involving elite relievers. I've seen even more ridiculous Yankee fan proposals than that. I wouldn't take it to heart because Stearns would never do it. The best (worst) one I've seen so far was... Hader for JA Happ and Clint Frazier I found no need to get into an exchange with that person. You can't reason with dumb.

If someone said they either expect that return or that they'd be ok with it, please quote it so I can laugh at it along with you.

If there's no "massive overpay" now the likelihood of it happening later doesn't exactly increase.

The Brewers can absolutely lose if the hold out for more than the current market dictates this offseason and his value decreases going forward. Thankfully it sounds like there is no shortage of interest so the Brewers should get the value they're due.